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FortWayne
2011 Feb 11, 8:01am
Nobody says that we are going back to bubble level prices anytime soon. But there are signs of recovery, jobless rate has reversed direction…its going down, not up. Stockmarket has recovered massivly. But you probably consider that naive too.
I agree with all your facts…but your interpretation is not correct. You are not looking at the whole picture, you are only looking at the negative aspects.
My neighborhood has an average income of 90k/yeah per household. Most people have owned their homes for 20 + years…the inventory in this neighborhood (and many others like it too) is very low. ...
You are conflating stock market events with reality that most people live. Dow Jones Industrial Index doesn't represent the quality of life an average citizen of America has. It has no relation there, and my portfolio is doing better this year... almost recovered from the crash.
You also live in a neighborhood that is better off financially where 90k is average. In my area average income is closer to 60k (although now many are living off unemployment checks). 60 x 3 = 180... and houses used to be around 150k to 250 out here. that was the range and it matched incomes. now prices are still dropping... so far down from 600 to roughly mid 300's. still have some time to go... we have tons of foreclosures too. check out victory/corbin cross street... there is a wall of foreclosures, some have squatters living in them even.
As patrick said, all real estate is local. Maybe in your neighborhood things are great and peachy. It isn't like that out here. And with more outsourcing, I can only see more unemployment and crime in this neighborhood.
You are right - stockmarket has nothing to do with how most of us live but it is an indicator of sentiment. And people feel like spending when their 401k's look good - it does have a huge impact. When your portfolio is 100% recovered, you are more likely to take on a risk (home purchase) then when your 401k is 80% down and you feel like you have just lost your retirement. Wouldn't you agree?
Yeah, I know victory/corbin well...I would probably not buy a house there right now. If you are in the 200-250k pricerange, move to the temecula valley - It's gorgeous and a 3000sqft house built in 2004 is $230k. We considered it many times. But there is a reason why its so cheap out there - no jobs!
I sometimes seriously think that i should get oout of BA in few years......these guys are trying to shitholes for an enormous sum in a gand ponzi scheme.
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Every broken clock is right every 12 hours...
If you keep being a doom and gloomer...you will be right at some point, if you are bullish you will also we right.
I have been a bear on real estate ever since 2003, when we first looked into buying and got terribly frustrated here in LA, not to sound like a broken record but of course all realtors were laughing at me, CA would NEVER crash...maybe level out...yeah right, I don't call a 35% drop leveling out - I was stubbron back then and I am very happy to have waited it out...the fact is though...I have lived in a crappy rental for 6 years, landlord is a pain in the ass, I work from home and would love to setup a nice office alla new floors, cabinets, possible break down a wall and extend - all the things I cannot do in a rental. I am in escrow now on a much much nicer house (w/pool), even better neighborhood and my mortgage is going to be only slightly higher than my rent is. (20%down 30yr loan) -
I don't care what anybody says...I don't see how that is not a no brainer. And if the market goes down further - so what? If I don't buy, I still have to pay the rent, in essence I am still paying a mortgage, somebody else's mortgage because I have to live somewhere. I'd rather pay my own. Been on the sidelines way too long. We rented a really nice house for a while in 2003...then the landlord had to sell - BAM, we had to move. Totally sucks living with that uncertainty! And moving sucks anyways...
Funny Thing is...I have kept all 45 listings that we looked at in 2003 and just looked them up on zillow and guess what...that's exactly where we are now here in LA. 2003 prices. Amazing!! Of course, back then I didn't have the downpayment like now so it still helped to have rented all these years.
Don't be a bear forever! I have a few older friends that have been bearish on real estate for 30 years...I almost became one of them :)
Buy a house for the right reason - because you need a place to live. If you are waiting for the market to be at the very bottom then you are speculating just like you would with a stock. That mindset is what has caused the bubble in the first place. Don't expect to make big money with your home. Buy it so you have a place for your kids to grow up. And once its free and clear in 30 years, the kids can have it and rent it out and get a head start like some of you in this forum who were lucky enough to inherit a rental prop.
…Deals are out there!
The only person I feel bad for is the next tenant in this crappy rental house with a landlord that hates to fix anything...but there is always a sucka out there. I was that sucka for a long time...
Now, go and buy a house! The time has come.
#housing