patrick.net

He speeketh the truth.

he should be on the nber :)

In other words, invest now before you are priced out forever!

Wait, I thought he said like a week ago there would be no double dip, and now he says we're still in one?

Oh, Buffet is talking about common sense. Yeah, I agree, common sense says we're still in one. The whole definition is "recession" is pretty arbitrary, and not very useful. 0.5% growth means a declining economy on a per capita basis since the population is growing faster than that, and yet that's not considered a recession by the NBER.

Nomograph says

Nomograph says

Some advice from Uncle Nomo: ignore the pessimists, the doom-and-gloomers, the chicken littles, and the ne’er-do-wells.

That's good advise on a personal level.

It misses though that that there are macroeconomic forces that will keep the economy sluggish for a long while (deleveraging households, sick banking system, decreased labor mobility from people tied to underwater homes...) Starting a new business? Good for you. But all the optimism and hard-work in the world won't help those that can't get financing to get their business off the ground.

Still in a recession doesn't mean double dip.

In fact the article goes on to state how things are recovering for his businesses. He didn't say anything about getting worse in there, only better. Things aren't to where they were before the recession. No big surprise there.

He even throws in examples of where his businesses were before the recession, where they hit bottom, and where they are now.

Nomograph says

Fireballsocal says

In other words, invest now before you are priced out forever!

Spoken like a true loser. You just felt like making a broadly negative statement. What does it have to do with starting a business?
Let me repeat:
Nomograph says

Some advice from Uncle Nomo: ignore the pessimists, the doom-and-gloomers, the chicken littles, and the ne’er-do-wells.

Good advice but this forum is to discuss about housing. I may be a millionare or a homeless I come here to check about housing.

Nomograph says

bubblesitter says

this forum is to discuss about housing

You seemed perfectly happy discussing recessions until I threw a wet blanket on your little pity party.

..but I took ur advice positively. If I had to do my business level discussions this is a wrong forum.

Nomograph says

Fireballsocal says

In other words, invest now before you are priced out forever!

Spoken like a true loser. You just felt like making a broadly negative statement. What does it have to do with starting a business?
Let me repeat:
Nomograph says

Some advice from Uncle Nomo: ignore the pessimists, the doom-and-gloomers, the chicken littles, and the ne’er-do-wells.

Sorry Nomo. It's one of those weeks. I don't know the first thing about starting my own business and as such, wouldn't think of trying. I would be one of those statistics. It's just you sounded so much like the NAR that I had to throw out that comment. Anyone who tries to jumpstart a business in todays times is either very confidant, very naive, or soon to be very poor. I would be the latter. That's why I qork for someone else that knows what they are doing.

Fireball,
If you're savvy enough to figure out that your employer and its management indeed really know what they are in fact doing, you may be savvy enough to run your own business, too.

Nomograph says

I’m seeing new small businesses pop up everywhere; I’m getting a biotech startup off the ground as we speak. Some advice from Uncle Nomo: ignore the pessimists, the doom-and-gloomers, the chicken littles, and the ne’er-do-wells. America’s next crop of billionaires are cutting their teeth RIGHT NOW during this time of extreme opportunity. The deck has been reshuffled and you won’t get dealt a hand if you aren’t at the table.

BAHHHAHHHHHAHAAAAHHHHHAHAAAAHH! OH that is rich!

Perhaps I should clearify...

thomas.wong1986 says

I’m getting a biotech startup off the ground as we speak.

Your better off setting off a rocket off the ground than starting a Biotech startup.

thomas, had you claimed to have worked at startups or helped launch them or something like that?

If you did, you would know that not everyone all the time is doing it to get rich. Some people are driven to see their ideas into fruition, the startup concept is one way they raise money to get it going. When or if it doesn't work out, well, how would they know unless they tried? It is a lot like hitting on the girls when we're younger: one way to insure you'll never get success is to talk yourself out of trying with all the reasons you'll fail, and all the examples of previous failures of oneself and of others. What is the worst thing that will happen? She'll say no and you're no worse off than before.

Not exactly in the American spirit to be so negative. Are you posting from France?

Yes, Sybril, thats correct. Its not about the money, its about passion. And I have met many who had the passion for creating new products in the startups I worked at. I was having fun Nono who wants to get into BioTech, probably the worst industry to be involved in. Big cash drain, always begging for funding, FDA compliance testing and issues, long time span for actual product introduction, key employee turnover in R&D, and lots of legal issues when it goes wrong (Viox anyone?), if you even get there which under 5% chance.

LOL! you dont need to be French to understand the above...

@Nomograph
Good job! I'm sure as you go through business setup, you could even get decent advice from a few of us here.

Setting up a company isn't all that difficult, and you're right about setting one up now. Cheap land, cheap used equipment, lots of talent.

thomas.wong1986 says

probably the worst industry to be involved in. Big cash drain, always begging for funding, FDA compliance testing and issues, long time span for actual product introduction, key employee turnover in R&D, and lots of legal issues when it goes wrong (Viox anyone?), if you even get there which under 5% chance.

Sounds like saying, with different rationalizing words for talking oneself out of trying, what I posted:sybrib says

t not everyone all the time is doing it to get rich. Some people are driven to see their ideas into fruition, the startup concept is one way they raise money to get it going. When or if it doesn’t work out, well, how would they know unless they tried? It is a lot like hitting on the girls when we’re younger: one way to insure you’ll never get success is to talk yourself out of trying with all the reasons you’ll fail, and all the examples of previous failures of oneself and of others. What is the worst thing that will happen? She’ll say no and you’re no worse off than before.

I have worked at a couple of hardware startups , as an employee (not founder) in the technical side. One didn't work out, the other one "sort of" did. Most potential hardware hirees were reasonably good at filtering/assessing/forming an opinion in their mind about the viability of the notion, for the most part buying-in/drinking the CoolAid/sharing the vision (though probably not the extreme passion of the founders) when they got hired. Those who pretended otherwise got discouraged and quit when something "more stable" came along. That was in hardware. Finance hirees may have been marching to a different tune. (Most of them don't have the education/knowledge/background to assess the technical merits)

Reasons for one person's negativity are a visionary person's challenges and opportunities to succeed where negative folks talk themselves out of trying. Good thing those types weren't making decisions on the beaches of Normandy.

Regarding the French Connection, the greatest part of my genes are French. But there is some variation in every gene pool, probably the reason my French ancestors took bold risk to immigrate here a couple centuries ago.

Nomograph says

Just out of curiosity, other than “BAHHHAHHHHHAHHAHHAHHA”, do you have any compelling reasons why this *isn’t* the best time for a biotech startup in years, if not decades?

Had you said "other than biotech" I would agree. Cheaper here and much cheaper in other states and state sponsored economic zones.

Nomograph says

You obviously don’t have the stomach for fast-paced, high risk-high reward business. Culturally, Chinese are typically quite risk averse. That’s why so many go into relatively safe, practical occupations like accounting and engineering. You’ll make a secure, decent living but it’s hard to get rich that way unless you hit it big with PimentoLoaf.com or some such nonsense.

Sorry Nomo, Im a white boy...READ WHITE! Its the 3 decades of finance background in Silicon Valley that understands BioTech isnt the golden cash cow many hope for. Everyone knows that! Its always the RE shills, Realtors and Investors who dont know squat about Biotech that keep pumping Biotech that will save the Bay Area and we will have another round of "Party Like Its 1999". It aint gonna happen. Keep Dreaming....

thomas.wong1986 says

Nomograph says

You obviously don’t have the stomach for fast-paced, high risk-high reward business. Culturally, Chinese are typically quite risk averse. That’s why so many go into relatively safe, practical occupations like accounting and engineering. You’ll make a secure, decent living but it’s hard to get rich that way unless you hit it big with PimentoLoaf.com or some such nonsense.

Sorry Nomo, Im a white boy…READ WHITE! Its the 3 decades of finance background that understands BioTech isnt the golden cash cow many hope for. Everyone knows that!

(Not insinuating that Chinese are risk averse and negative, though maybe like all other cultures, a subset of them are...)
Nomo could just have well as written, which is what I think he meant, "....Culturally, people who lack vision and are generally negative are typically quite risk averse. That’s why so many go into relatively safe, practical occupations like accounting...."

My partner is in accounting/finance, and my partner would be the first one to tell you that my partner went into finance because of being generally negative and quite risk averse, as least as far as employment matters go. A child of immigrants, I'd say my partner's risk averse genes skipped a generation.

Biotech here has the advantages of having a lot of technical people to pull from. Same reason we don't see a lot of great sucessful startups in other states, they should be able to kill silicon valley in costs, but we have many of them here. They're centered here because the pool of people who are good at this type of work is drawn here, bred here and everyone knows someone who has worked at a startup, so everyone has some knowledge of what is going to happen, what to avoid, etc.

Biotech has a great pool of talent here, especially if it's a company designing hardware to be used in other biotechs, or requires a lot of hardware to do whatever they do.

sybrib says

“….Culturally, people who lack vision and are generally negative are typically quite risk averse. That’s why so many go into relatively safe, practical occupations like accounting….”

Anyone who goes to work for a start up takes a risk, and I done several already. There isnt anything safe regarding accounting... See SOX 404.

pkennedy says

Biotech has a great pool of talent here, especially if it’s a company designing hardware to be used in other biotechs, or requires a lot of hardware to do whatever they do.

Bay Area, Boston, or what every region, Biotech isnt a fasttrack industry and litered with long R&D periods and costly lawsuits.

When did you hear other SV companies have to pay millions-billions due to deaths or other lawsuits by endusers ? No problem for SW/HW companies.. they simply send out upgrade/update/patch you can download...no biggie.

sybrib says

I was going to be consumed with negativity I think I’d either try to move back to my ancestoral rootland of France or at least never get out of bed in the morning.

LOL! your too consumed with Biotech to really notice there are REAL gems out there, unseen and unheard by the SV hipsters and media. Small non-biotech players who are doing very well.

Here I will throw you an example..... InAcct.com

Consumed by biotech?

No way! No way is it going to be the "Next Big Thing" in Silicon Valley. I'm skeptical that there even will be a Next Big Thing in the region except maybe a magnitude 1906 Earthquake, not the kind of Next Big Thing we want.

But I am not consumed by negativity, either.

sybrib says

But I am not consumed by negativity, either.

Its not negativity.. its the understanding of risk/rewards and the dynamics of
such industries.

Slamming Nomograph on being involved in startup(s) without an intimate knowledge of what s/he's doing is negativity. It usually takes Don Quixotism to launch an idea that makes the world a better place. Like the establishment that was bashing Dr. Jonas Salk.

Nomo already wrote, and you acknowledged such an attitude yourself, for problem-solving founders, it's not just about the money.

Unless perhaps, one is involved in the finance side of the startup.

Doesn't Nomo live outside San Diego? Why all this talk of the Bay Area?

yeah i want to join a startup run by forrest gump.

works in the movies, not real life.

mike, it does work in real life.
Sometimes. Rarely, only sometimes. But it does work.

Does it mean that we should all drink the Cool Aid? Of course not. Is it going to be the Next Big Thing that keeps rents and house prices too high in Silicon Valley? I don't think so.

Is every employee of a startup that succeeds an instead millionaire? Nope.

But it does work. Been there myself, as has, according to his own self, Doubting Thomas.

Does it mean that we should tell a college professor in San Diego that he is sure to fail to launch another startup when we don't even know what the invention is? No we should not. Those incubations in San Diego are bringing capital into our state from other parts of the USA and other parts of the world. Next Big Thing in Silicon Valley? Nope. But bringing capital into California, anywhere in California, not a bad thing either for Californians, particularly the way the economy is right now.

Grampy Warren was right about one thing, we live in....

SQUANDERVILLE.

The folks over in Thriftville feel no problem in doing this:

China imposes steep tarriffs on US poultry

I like Kunstler's phrase "The Long Emergency". This is a hole we may NEVER climb out of. All that unilateral trade agreement junk means is we give away the store piecemeal, and the Quislings who enable this get to live a richer life along the way.

Besides tariffs, another remedy to all the imported crap coming here in container ships would be a terrorist nuke going off in a harbor or maybe anywhere else in-country, or maybe a vial of smallpox getting spread in a densely populated area.

All the inspections that'd be required to prevent another such event would add cost like a tariff. Stuff we really need and would be willing to pay extra for all the inspections would still come in.

Provided you can get an insurance company to secure coverage on shipment. AIG anyone?

this thread is worthless and many of you are poseurs requiring therapy...lots of it.

Fox and Friends? Right...Next thing you'll say I'm supporting Newt in 2012...

If a thought process brings someone to a particular question that you don't like, it does not mean they are a "poseur" necessarily.
sallybuttons says

this thread is worthless and many of you are poseurs requiring therapy…lots of it.

Brilliant deduction - avoid discussing a topic and just start calling names? Hmmm... All you wingnuts - left and right - are so impressive...

Another reason why labor is cheap in China is because of the devalued Chinese currency.

pkennedy says

We could tariff the hell out of them, but that would just be a pass through tax on gas.

That's debatable. Current pump prices are based on what we can pay, not the cost of production. Taxes redirect the producer surplus to the gov't. Theoretically.

But that won't help the trade deficit. The reason to have tariffs is to try and level out a deficit, forcing those products to be as expensive as local goods, so we encourage people to buy locally. However in the case of gasoline, it's a commodity that we require. Those countries could turn around and say "Ok to buy our gas, we'll put on an export tax, you can "remove" that tariff now! Now the trade deficit will be even worse.

It translates to nothing more than a tax on gas, and we use gas to leverage our work force. 500 people farming = 1 tractor. If we make our tractors more expensive, we become LESS competitive.