patrick.net

Buy, buy, buy.

N.I.M.B.Y.

From Broderick Perkins, Realty Times on July 25, 2006 :

Silicon Valley residents who've decided they can't afford to buy a home had better lock down the best deal they can get in a rental because they soon could be priced out of that market too.

Another good one from Buffett:

"It's easier to stay out of trouble than to get out of trouble"

Another good one from Buffett:

“It’s easier to stay out of trouble than to get out of trouble”

A good one from J P Morgan:

“Anyone can be a millionaire, but to become a billionaire you need an astrologer.”

HARM,
Great compilation. Now if only these people could be held accountable for their lies.

Here's something scary. Learah's quotes got me a-searchin'. I looked through the parts of his TP roll, er, book, "Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?..." On the back cover are a few "expert" reviews:

"An invaluable book...This book should prove to be a truly practical guide for any household looking to create wealth in real estate"

"David Learah lays out a compelling vision of housing as a continuing positive investment-and how you can profit from real estate if you already own the home you live in, are looking to move from rental housing to an owner-occupied home, or want to use real estate as an investment."

Bullish and pie in the sky comments? Of course. Are they from RE industry shills and idiots? Well, the first one is by Dewey Daane, Former Gov of the Fed Reserve, and the second is from David Berson, Chief Economist, Fannie Mae.

Guy's our economy is f@#ked! We have glad-handing from the Fed on Learah's vomitous book!

John Doe Says:

Is it OK if I rub it in with some 80grit and a belt sander? Oops that’s too low brow for Patrick.net!

No, definitely not too low brow. Just make sure you pour lemon juice on the faces right afterwards.

John Doe Says:

> Is it OK if I rub it in with some 80grit
> and a belt sander? Oops that’s too low
> brow for Patrick.net!

A belt sander will not "rub", but a sanding disk on my cool new drill sure will do a good job "rubbing" if you switch it from forward to reverse...

http://www.toolsforless.com/product/8349.html

Jack McCoy,

Sorry, the odds of any realtor getting put away for racketeering is pretty slight. But many of them could be civilly or even criminally liable for fraud.

"Housing always goes up...ALWAYS!"

I still think we should not be too hard on realtors. Most of them are decent people.

Marina is PRIME.

Marina is PRIME.

Gotta love it. :)

1.25% "fixed" mortgage

[Answers Phone, crisp April 2005 evening]
"Hello?"

[Silent Generation In-Law]
"Ohhh, I just heard you guys had to sell and are renting to get by....I hope things turn around for you soon. You had such a beautiful house before...it's such a shame, but I'm sure if you keep trying things will pick up soon."

[Stunned Pause]
"uhhh, we were planning on moving within the year anyway, so we just went ahead and sold so we could lock in the gains before prices come down, I tho......"

[Interrupting]
"I know dear. And I know you guys are trying so hard. You don't need to explain We know you'll be able to buy another house again soon. Certainly there are some nice little places..."

[Hands phone to wife, rolls eyes, and heads off to figure out which Vanguard funds to stick our home lotto winnings into.]

~~~

[Last weekend, same in-law, in person]
"I knew you guys were smart to wait a little [before buying another house]. Aren't you glad you waited! Maybe we can drive around with you this weekend and help you look at some little places you can afford. You don't want people to think you *have* to rent, do you?"

[Rolls eyes at wife]

[Wife]
"Mom. Enough. Why don't we all go get some sushi."

[In-law]
"I don't know how you guys can eat raw fish. And it's so expensive."

You don’t want people to think you *have* to rent, do you?

Huh? Perhaps I am depressed enough to be indifferent of what people think. :)

I stopped rolling my eyes. They are tired.

Perhaps the next thread should be:

I rolled my eyes so much I ...

It's the biggest no-brainer in the history of mankind.

Oh, now I am not sure how famous the above quote is. I hear it on radio ads. And it just seemed like one that all bubble-sitters will never forget.

Athena

Alan Greenspan was born in 1926. He is not a boomer.

Ben Bernanke was born in 1953. He is a boomer.

What Greenspan said was true at the time. In addition, over the long run ARMs are cheaper than fixed rate mortgages. However, you must be capable of managing the fluctuation in payments to justify the risk.

I note the quote by Lereah saying that paying off your mortgage is unsophisticated.

This is true most of the time. However, there are times when the unsophisticated option is the best choice.

The bull market in real estate ended last year. Prices usually move slowly during the first year of decline. They should decline faster during the next two years.

"The check is in the mail." --The US Gov't.

"They're not making land anymore." --Every Realtwhore

"They don't build houses like this anymore." --Shoeshine Boy Realtor

"Relax...it's only money...ha, ha!" --US Bank Mortgage Repo Unit

"...Irrational exhuberance..." --Paul Schiller

"Ramble on!" --Led Zep

"This is not America!" --Anonymous

"Where's the cheese?" --Anony-mouse :o~~

George,

Thanks. It is indeed very difficult dealing with stubborn parents, especially when they're from that particular generation. Like I've said, it may be fashionable to bash the Boomers, but the Silent Generation have a monopoly on complete, utter ignorance of anything but their own world view. Add that to the normal effects of aging on memory, and you get some tragic comedy.

I note the quote by Lereah saying that paying off your mortgage is unsophisticated.

This is true most of the time. However, there are times when the unsophisticated option is the best choice.

The error in this assumption is the word "sophisticated". Since most people are not, they are always better off pursuing the according option.

Few people can tell you how their fixed-rate mortgage amortization works, let alone figure out the real-option value of an adjustable rate IO, option loan. Come to think of it, how many people know what "yield" means. Hell, they don't even know what it means when they see that word on a triangular sign on the roadways.

Angela Says:

> My favorite quote is from John Husing,
> Economist for the Inland Empire (Riverside/
> San Bernardino, CA). He recently stated that
> “The Inland Empire is the Center of the Universe”

It sounds like part of the cut off and the full quote should be:

“The Inland Empire is the Center of the White Trash and California Illegal Alien Universe”

The "Inland Empire" is a pit that makes Phoenix and Vegas look like garden spots. Back in 1995 I was having a hard time selling apartments in San Bernardino for $15K a door (that were built in 1989 and sold for $70K a door in 1990).

In 1995 San Bernardino had a higher crime (property and murder) rate than Compton and things are going to get scary when thousands of out of work construction guys have nothing to do so they start hanging with their Norteno and Sureno homies...

After reading Randy's in-law post I'm reminded of a couple other favorite quotes:

A man will feel successful if he makes more and has a bigger house than his father in law and brothers in law.

A woman will be happy and feel successful if her husband makes more and has a bigger house than her parents, siblings and friends...

I don't have any statistics to back it up, but in my life every divorce I know of where the woman left the man, he made less than her Dad, and I can't think of a single woman who left a guy that made more than her Dad...

It is hard to change what get's wired in to the brain as "normal" over 30 years. A girl that grew up in a little Novato apartment will be happy as can be living in a split level town home in San Rafael while a girl that was raised in Ross with servants will feel like a looser living in a $2mm 3br/2ba home in Mill Valley where she has to run the vacuum and do a little dusting herself...

Steve The Owner Says:

dont you feel for them
http://money.cnn.com/2006/09/08/real_estate/caught_in_the_bubble/index.htm?postversion=2006090814

No.

The market has stalled here in Noe Valley, but isn't really moving down. The strangest thing is that high end homes are moving, which in this neighborhood mean $1.5M+. In the last month five $2M+ homes were sold. But the more modest homes, 3/2s that are priced $1M to $1.5M are just sitting there. Average price/sq foot is staying at $750 for SFH.

I just did a MRLS search and saw that everything under $1M is still moving fast, so the "starter" 1000 sq ft 800k-1M range is still strong and the high end is strong but everything in between is not.

This is not how I expected it to play out, I have to admit. I thought the high end would soften first. Perhaps it has in other neighborhoods though, I have to admit to only really knowing real estate in this and adjacent neighborhoods.

How are prices going in Pac Heights SFWoman? Is the high end still moving?

Not paying market wages to H-1B holders is unfair to both foreign and domestic high-tech workers.

Huh? Isn't that similar to saying that not paying "market" prices to FB homesellers is unfair to all homeowners.

There is the wage. There are the workers. That is the market.

I thought the high end would soften first.

In a "normal" housing boom, that would have been the case. But this is a credit-driven bubble. I fully expected the lower-end to go down first.

It is not really a "fair" market though Peter, because it is massively influenced by immigration policy. Stop the H1B program and wages would go up. Eliminate border controls entirely and wages would do down.

We have a situation where capital is free to move across borders to find return but labor is not. This causes strange localized distortions.

We have a situation where capital is free to move across borders to find return but labor is not. This causes strange localized distortions.

Exactly. Unless we can stop capital from going across border, controlling immgration will not do much to help workers.

I afraid embracing a globalized economy is the only choice. This would probably entail the abolishment of the welfare system.

I don’t have any statistics to back it up, but in my life every divorce I know of where the woman left the man, he made less than her Dad, and I can’t think of a single woman who left a guy that made more than her Dad…

Those rules don't really hold too well when you apply them to the class of rural, midwestern farmers and working class folks both my wife & I grew up with. In that world, anyone who gets an education and escapes is successful.

By the way, I know a good handful of women who left very successful men--much more so than their fathers or brothers--primarily because their husbands became alcoholics or worse.

Did someone say efficient market? lol. What I love about this debate is you're all right, just you're only looking at it from a particular actor's perspective.

To any individual worker caught in the middle of a dynamic market adjustment, even if the market is becoming more efficient, they will inevitably see their circumstances as very unfair. On the other hand, it is mathematically and empirically demonstrable that with more open markets, globalization, and even "labor arbitrage", everyone does better as a whole than with protected markets.

It's the flaw of the "race to the bottom" theory. It is a race to the bottom only as a static analysis. What is ignored is the fact that during this race, everything is rising for everyone, so floor is being raised. But, for workers sitting in protected, high inflation, usually US & Western European jobs, they will feel like they are losing because their growth is slowing while everyone else's is increasing.

I personally am in favor of more legal immigration and less illegal immigration. I don't like H1B's for the same reason I don't like illegal workers: they are too easily exploited by their employer, driving down wages and working conditions for everyone.

But in general, I like immigration: the people we get tend to the brightest and most adventurous. I know the population pressure drives up the cost of homes and causes congestion and overcrowding, but in balance, I think the tradeoff is worth it.

The only other altervative in a global economy is to just ship all the jobs overseas, which would be even worse for America. I guess you could argue for a return to tariffs and national economies, but I don't think any serious economist thinks that this is a good idea.

Muggy,

Let me go two worse (and your math is not bad, it's just that the conditions for their statement are undefined):

1. That data is inevitably either extrapolated from census data or it is the product of FL's own data, which is very unlikely a census but surely a statistical sampling. The rub is that national census data is very low confidence (and ironically statistical sampling would improve nat'l data), whereas states' own sampled data is usually manipulated for political gain, so it is a bit unreliable in most cases.

2. We don't know the periodic rate the statement is applying to. Perhaps the statement is true when talking about a particular month when a huge boat full of immigrants landed, or more likely some month when a couple of companies happened to all move to FL at the same time. But certainly, over a longer period, the statement cannot be true.

So, it's unethical in my opinion to sell homes saying 1,000/day new arrivals. But it's no less atypical than any type of advertising spin. It's not necessarily false advertising, just highly idiomatic.

Ha Ha,

Please describe for us what a Monopsony is and why it's necessarily inefficient. I assume you know.

(In many industries monopolies, monopsonies, duopolies, etc. are more efficient than competitive markets. Especially when tremendous capital fixed costs are involved.)