patrick.net

Listings for 425 W. Meadow and 4102 Wilkie Way are not on the MLS anymore. Did they sell?

Both were taken off the market on Feb 11. Same day the builder increased price for other four properties. It's hard to believe that everything happened around same time. It's just a strategy.

I really dont see much of a went up, went up again scenario here!

Property History for 415 W MEADOW Dr

Date Event Price Appreciation Source
Feb 22, 2010 Price Changed $1,315,000 -- MLSListings #81000101
Feb 02, 2010 Price Changed $1,285,000 -- MLSListings #81000101
Jan 06, 2010 Price Changed $1,375,000 -- MLSListings #81000101
Jan 03, 2010 Listed $1,458,000 -- MLSListings #81000101
Jul 30, 2009 Delisted -- -- Inactive MLSListings #1
Jun 04, 2009 Listed -- -- Inactive MLSListings #1

Reverse psychology indeed. They are just jerking the prices around to see if they can scare up some buyers , and at the same time I suppose they get to be a new listing for a day (or is it illegal now to reset the date?).

justme says

or is it illegal now to reset the date?

There is nothing "illegal" in real estate business, especially something that involves MLS listing. There are some ethical codes in realtor(TM) dictionary, but most of the agents either don't know or don't care.

Thanks guys! I recall biking past this development last summer. One of the units had a "Sale Pending" sign on it for many weeks. I guess it never sold. There are only 6 units in the project.

justme says

Reverse psychology indeed. They are just jerking the prices around to see if they can scare up some buyers , and at the same time I suppose they get to be a new listing for a day (or is it illegal now to reset the date?).

It certainly screws up inventory numbers and inventory turnover days which get reported to the public. In manufacturing industries, which carry and report inventory numbers as part of their financials, such practice would be considered outright fraud.

There is now a bright red SOLD sign in front of 4102 Wilkie. That explains one of the listings. It will be interesting to see if it was a true sale, or just a developer to investor transfer.

Every so often I'm in the Palo Alto area. Either at HP headquarters or at the VA Medical Center. I am always amazed at the million dollar plus homes they have in Palo Alto.

I'm sorry but I don't get it. These houses would sell for anywhere between $150K to $300K back in my hometown (San Antonio).

The most they should sell for here in the Bay Area would be around $500K. And that for a large home on an oversized lot.

jvolstad says

I am always amazed at the million dollar plus homes they have in Palo Alto.

More like a speed record if anything else. 300K to $1M in 10 years .... zoooooom!
Ev entual someone will wake up to the fact they really arent worth $1M after all.

jvolstad says

I’m sorry but I don’t get it. These houses would sell for anywhere between $150K to $300K back in my hometown (San Antonio).

1. San Antonio is a radial city that has buildable land for hundreds of miles in all directions -- PA is an enclave wedged between the suburbs of SF, the bay, the coast range, and Mountain View.

2. PA is the most desirable urban area that is convenient to the most wealth-creating employment complex this side of the Comstock Lode. Actually, the Comstock mine only produced $6B of silver at today's prices. GOOG and AAPL's market caps are 60X that, and aside from tech PA is the preferred home to legal, medical, accounting and every other "professional" service provider that serves tech and the wider area economy.

3. Stanford is a demand magnet, with both off-campus students and staff wanting proximity to campus.

4. People value land based on access to community services. PA is convenient to SF but also has the area's best complex of community retail. Los Altos is also nice but for people who like to walk to their food PA can't be beat.

5. Texas has relatively high property taxes which hold down land values. California has very low property taxes that are essentially fixed after purchase. Prop 58 passes this benefit onto inheritors, encouraging them to rent out the property instead of selling.

6. PA now has an eruv. SA, I don't think so.

7. PA is a terminal city. If you make it there you're not going to want to leave except in a hearse.

All these factors converge onto a lot of money chasing relatively little supply.

There is plenty of land in the Bay Area, drive south a little on 85.

Palo Alto is over rated and over inflated with its ego. To call it the home of professionals is a long stretch bucko! Have you ever seen Silver Creek Country Club or Alamaden Valley ?

Today they talk of Goog as they spoke about Yahoo, Apple nearly died off back in '92, it only reclaimed its cult status from making toys for kiddies!

If Prop 13 has not kept prices from falling either back in the early 90s or more recently.

Troy says

PA is the most desirable urban area that is convenient to the most wealth-creating employment complex this side of the Comstock Lode

What your trying to say, as it happened some 10 years ago, was people paid some employees of tech companies whose stock went IPO 10-20x its worth. So the employee walked away with cash while the buyer of the stock went belly up trading a dollar for a nickle. Thats not called wealth creation.. its called a scam!

Troy says

5. Texas has relatively high property taxes which hold down land values. California has very low property taxes that are essentially fixed after purchase. Prop 58 passes this benefit onto inheritors, encouraging them to rent out the property instead of selling.

No wonder we moved our jobs to Texas back in the late 80s!

thomas.wong1986 says

So the employee walked away with cash while the buyer of the stock went belly up trading a dollar for a nickle. Thats not called wealth creation.. its called a scam!

. . . he says, on an internet message board

Palo Alto is an interesting study in "Location, Location, Location". The current listing price of a house IDENTICAL to my house is $30,000 more than what mine was listed for in 2005. There are 2 "sale pending" signs on other homes in my area. I live in a rather dense 15-year old development just across the border from Palo Alto.

From conversations with people in the market, it seems the biggest hurdle to this area right now are out-of-area appraisers "not getting it". The appraisals are holding up the loans. It make sense, but I see a lot of seller anger.

bikes2work says

From conversations with people in the market, it seems the biggest hurdle to this area right now are out-of-area appraisers “not getting it”. The appraisals are holding up the loans. It make sense, but I see a lot of seller anger.

Sceptical independent third party review (apprasial) is a bitch! Especially when there is no benefit to the local appraisers as they can no longer 'guarantee and rubber stamp' high values. "not getting it" and not being in league with realtors to inflate values is what market really needs. Im sure it hurts their incomes pretty hard.

The add in the local newspaper says "only 4 left". But the Santa Clara County Assessor's website still shows the same tax billing address for all 6 units. 132-64-001 through 132-64-006.

This seems like very strange to me unless the 2 "sold" units are still in a verrrry long escrow.

SF Ace,

You are correct that the assessed value doesn't get updated until the new roll comes out in August. However, the new owner's mailing address gets updated on the SCC Assessor's website when the property transfer is recorded at the County Recorder's office. So these 2 sold properties haven't been transferred yet. They are either still in escrow or "fictitious sales".

I also just check the SCC Recorder's office and no documents have been recorded yet for any of these new parcels.

Do sales of new homes usually have a long escrow period? I would think not because there are no lengthy pest, building or foundation inspections needed.

thomas.wong1986 says

I really dont see much of a went up, went up again scenario here!
Property History for 415 W MEADOW Dr
Date Event Price Appreciation Source
Feb 22, 2010 Price Changed $1,315,000 — MLSListings #81000101
Feb 02, 2010 Price Changed $1,285,000 — MLSListings #81000101
Jan 06, 2010 Price Changed $1,375,000 — MLSListings #81000101
Jan 03, 2010 Listed $1,458,000 — MLSListings #81000101
Jul 30, 2009 Delisted — — Inactive MLSListings #1
Jun 04, 2009 Listed — — Inactive MLSListings #1

This listing was Withdrawn.

Here is the Private Comments by the realtor on MLS Listings. Shows how desperate they really are.

Private : Bring us any reasonable offers! Top PA schools, brand new homes, call 650-930-6653 for info. Lockbox located @ 401 W. Meadow Dr; key opens all the doors to the homes.

For the reasons already pointed out, comparing Palo Alto to San Antonio is ridiculous. When you broaden your perspective and compare Palo Alto to other significant parts of the world, you actually will find that Palo Alto is a bargain. How much does comparable real estate cost in: Zurich, Switzerland? - Much more. Well, Zurich certainly has a lot going for it too, since it is a major financial center. But, what about Volterra, Italy? Would you believe, property is still more even there than Palo Alto? What does Volterra, Italy have? I honestly don't know. It isn't even a major tourist center in Italy. Nevertheless, real estate is more expensive in Volterra, Italy than Palo Alto.

Thomas Wong wrote:
More like a speed record if anything else. 300K to $1M in 10 years …. zoooooom!

PA houses were not $300k in 2000. Decent SJ houses were more than $300k then. I bought a 3/2 in SJ in the late nineties for just under $400k. I would have bought in PA for that money, but of course that was not possible.

And
Palo Alto is over rated and over inflated with its ego. To call it the home of professionals is a long stretch bucko! Have you ever seen Silver Creek Country Club or Alamaden Valley ?

True, you get more house for your money in SC or Almaden Valley. But, the commutes are farther to high paying jobs. Particularly SC, it's out there. Also, schools. Almaden Valley schools are not as good as PA, but they are pretty good. SC on the other hand - elem is fine, but most people buying in the Country Club development will go private for middle to high. So add $10k-$30k per year per kid. For some people that's the right choice, but there's a reason why PA houses cost more.

SiO2 says

PA houses were not $300k in 2000. Decent SJ houses were more than $300k then. I bought a 3/2 in SJ in the late nineties for just under $400k. I would have bought in PA for that money, but of course that was not possible.

Your right by 2000 they doubled from the stock option cash outs.

Publication Date: Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2000 & Friday, Sept. 22, 2000
Breaking into the market
Yes, Virginia, it is possible to buy a first home in this area--if you're willing to make compromises
by Jocelyn Dong

So you're looking to buy your first home in Silicon Valley. How do you get into the market?

"Stock options," says real estate agent Chuck Atwell dryly. "Being a multi-millionaire."

http://www.paloaltoonline.com/news_features/real_estate/fall2000/2000_09_22.lowmarkt.php

........................................................................

Fall Real Estate 2000
Publication Date: Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2000 & Friday, Sept. 22, 2000
It's a seller's market
Prices haven't leveled off yet as buyers compete in a hot market

Advice to potential buyers

"If I were going to live in the area for a long time, I'd buy now," Dancer , Coldwell Banker, Woodside, advised would-be buyers. If plans call for moving out in two to three years, he'd hesitate and possibly rent.

"No one wants to recognize it, but between 1989 and 1992, prices dropped 30 to 40 percent. There's no question that could happen again. Everything has a cycle and real estate is no exception. It's foolish to think prices will go up forever. In the longer term they will, if you can weather the downturns in between. There's no way to know," Dancer said.

"If you need to buy a house, you need to bite the bullet and do so," added Shirley Bailey, Alain Pinel Realtors, Los Altos. "Christmas is a great time to buy--if there's anything on the market."

"There is no bad time to put a house on the market. A home always looks best around the holidays and people have more discretionary time then," noted Biorn.

"If you are not part of that success story (no stock options) and are not benefiting from the high-tech boom, it's tough. You have to start as soon as you possibly can, anywhere in the Bay Area," advised Pinel. "It's brutally expensive not to buy."

http://www.paloaltoonline.com/news_features/real_estate/fall2000/2000_09_22.trends.php

Maybe Patrick can contact Dancer if he is still around and ask for details to the drop in real estate prices from 89 to 91 which Dancer cites back in 2000.. Do PA prices fall ?

SiO2 says

True, you get more house for your money in SC or Almaden Valley. But, the commutes are farther to high paying jobs

If you lived in PA and worked for Cisco your commute went from East Side Palo Alto back in 1989 to Sunnyvale in the mid 90s to Milpitas by 2000, by which time then Cisco had plans to move everthing to Gonzales, South San Jose. Recently Calidus moved from Downtown SJ to Pleasanton.

Software firm Callidus moves from San Jose to Pleasanton
Company bringing 120 jobs to Tri-Valley's tech corridor
By George Avalos
Contra Costa Times
Posted: 04/06/2010 04:05:29 PM PDT
Updated: 04/07/2010 06:43:43 AM PDT

PLEASANTON — Callidus Software has struck a deal to move its headquarters and other operations from San Jose to an office building near Stoneridge Shopping Center here, joining an emerging cluster of tech firms in the area.

The company intends to move about 120 employees from downtown San Jose to Pleasanton, said Leslie Stretch, chief executive officer of Callidus. The company in 2009 lost $18 million on $81.1 million in sales.

The relocation of Callidus Software to Pleasanton makes it the latest software firm to move its head offices into the Tri-Valley region.

"There is a growing firmament of software companies in that part of the East Bay," Stretch said.

Callidus sells software to help corporations manage their sales forces and craft compensation, bonus and sales commission packages for workers. The company deploys its software via the Internet, a system dubbed software as a service.

It said it's detatched single home, but 2131 sqft home on 2998 sqft lot sounds like more like a townhouse.
Is it normal there in palo alto? Should be 8000~10000 sqft lot for that sized home. Typo on redfin maybe?

Descent home but no basement, small corner lot for 1.375M... hmmm..

E-man says

Also, another thing to note is that interest rate was about 10-12% in 1989, 7-8% in the mid 90’s, but only 5% now. That should help keep prices high somewhat.
The fed won’t let interest rate go past 7% in the next 3 to 5 years IMO. It would be polictical suicidal.

Thats right, interest rates dropped but did little to stop prices from falling or raising until much later. Key moment for the Bay Area for our "recovery" +$100B (too much money) from venture capital (chasing too few good ideas) causing a bubble by 2000.

SF ace says

-Also, when I first joined a well known firm in 2000, starting salary offer was 47K (I have the offer letter framed for momento). My understanding was starting salary in 1997 would have been around 35K so 1997-2000 was a period of huge inflation. In 2010, starting salary offers are around 60K. My feeling is 1997-2000 is legit fundamental while 2000 to 2010 are fueled by interest rate and easy access to capital.

Yes, what you saw was salary inflation coming from venture capital. VC Capital was used to hire and pay salaries, rent our facilities, throw lavish parties, hire accountants, lawyers, a chief in the kitchen etc etc etc. Much what fueled the local economy from 1997-2000 was investment capital, and IPOs.
See PWC Money Tree. https://www.pwcmoneytree.com/MTPublic/ns/nav.jsp?page=historical
Once the investment capital dried up in 2000-01 and IPOs fell off the cliff, well you pretty much were left with serial rounds of layoffs and restructuring in local tech companies. It even effected independent consultants, legal firms who were doing lots of IPOs and well as Accounting firms. Yes even the strippers got hit! Since then we havent seen that kind of capital inflow. FWIW, i wouldnt call 1998-2000 a normal period. It was very abnormal. What did home prices do ? well they just keep going up even if the party was over.

Thanks E-man.

I just realized that the house is built in year 2009.
Villages arround here are 100+ years old. I only thought about old homes usually built on larger lot. Some new homes I recently saw are quite big on house itself but have very small space arround the house. The space is like just few feet arround the house. It is more like grassed alley than yard. :)

Yeah, the darn place is expensive. I'd like to have more space if I had to pay over million.

Still no change in the mailing address on the Assessor's web page. No recorded documents for any of the APNs on the recorders web page either. Is this the longest escrow in history or is that "SOLD" sign a complete fraud?

I rode my bike past this development last Saturday. The big red "SOLD" sign for 4102 Wilkie has now been replaced with a green "AVAILABLE" sign. So for only $1.3M you can still be the first one on the block.

@ bikes2work
how did you get a hold of County Recorder records?
Are they online or you have to go the office?

http://www.clerkrecordersearch.org/

You can search by APN or Grantor. In this case, you would be looking for the word MEADOW in the Grantor or one of the APNs that I listed above. You can't get an actual copy of the record online, but it will show you the document number and recording date.

The assessor's web site is also searchable by APN. http://eservices.sccgov.org/ari/home.do

The owner's mailing address is kept current with recorded deeds and requests by the land owner if they move, etc. It does not show the owner's name, but you can google the mailing address and sometimes find the name that way.

Yes, I go by them often, it was originally a lovely large lot with one house on it - it was bought by a developer. Nuff said.