patrick.net

P2D2 says

WillyWanker says

Would you like to munch my ‘bottom’? Why else would you be referencing it? Thanks, but no thanks, girlfriend. I don’t want your lips on my ‘bottom’.

Damn, your “bottom”-full bullshit everywhere. Just look at the title of this very thread.
I don’t see your brain here. Just your bullshit and bottom.

LOL. I love how you went back to your post to edit out your fixation on my 'bottom'. Get a grip.

WillyWanker says

You have proved nothing but your own stupidity. You write that I’m not ’serious’ but YOU come on this thread to squawk like a bitch and think I’m not going to call ‘bullshit’? Well, you are wrong, Mary, and I would reference your own posts for displays of pure crap~ola. Obviously you are captivated by this thread, or you wouldn’t be spending your time here.

Well, you did not know I am captivated by this forum, including this thread?
And of course I am spending lot of time here - just to expose all your bullshit opinions based on those news articles. Too disappointed?

WillyWanker says

LOL. I love how you went back to your post to edit out your fixation on my ‘bottom’. Get a grip.

Don't worry. I just added "bullshit" in front of "bottom". That's a very important characteristics. How could I miss it! My bad. So I edited to add it.

WillyWanker says

Obviously, my ‘bottom’ has become an ‘idee fixe’ with you. Quit fixating on my ‘bottom’ and go on with your life.

Not sure if I have 'idee fixe' but can avoid it - especially when someone creates thread to demonstrate it.

WillyWanker says

I would reference your own posts for displays of pure crap~ola.

Go ahead, Wanker. I bet it would be hell of an achievement from your side, considering the fact that all you have done so far here is having bullshit opinions and conclusions based on cherry-picked statements from news articles.

people predicting the home market and betting thier money on it ( they do more research than us because money is at stake)
http://www.recharts.com/cme.html

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

people predicting the home market and betting thier money on it ( they do more research than us because money is at stake)

I bet there were plenty of people who had their money in stake for tulip mania. There is no doubt about it. Just because their money is in stake that does not mean they are making wise decisions.

Every research does not translate to correct conclusion (and sound investment decision). In the end they are betting their money. They will either lose or win.

"It will come back" when referring to the housing bubble is a bit of a misnomer; it never went away, thanks to Uncle Sam's size thirteen boot stuck in the door of free market forces.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/July-new-US-home-sales-up-96-apf-2930955123.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

"July new US home sales up 9.6 percent
New US home sales in July surge 9.6 pct, beating expectations in 4th straight monthly increase

* By Alan Zibel, AP Real Estate Writer
* On Wednesday August 26, 2009, 10:27 am EDT

WASHINGTON (AP) -- New U.S. home sales surged 9.6 percent in July, rising for the fourth straight month and beating expectations as the housing market marches steadily back from its historic downturn.

The Commerce Department said Wednesday that sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 433,000 from an upwardly revised June rate of 395,000. Sales are now up 32 percent from the bottom in January, but off 69 percent from the frenzied peak four years ago.

Last month's sales pace was the strongest since September and exceeded the forecasts of economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters, who expected a pace of 390,000 units. The last time sales rose so dramatically was in February 2005."

Another story about the real~estate market picking up. Let's see if the positive news take root and the market begins a steady, albeit slow, climb. Time will tell.

Houses are selling in 2 weeks or less in my neighborhood. I bought exactly one year ago for $620,000. The house two doors down, same model sold for 975,000. It's a great time to buy if you buy in the right area for the right price.

Yea! im sure plenty still recall how many were saying.. “It will come back” as the tech stock of late 90s fell from 300/share by 90%. Just like Yahoo stock… $350 dow under $40K

I also recall when many people were saying in 2003 that tech is dead and that nasdaq will go to 600 !
for every idiot who said that sky is the limit for the boom , i can show you another idiot who said there is no end to the bottom during bust.

Patrick,

>>Does that make me white trash

Maybe we can all apply for an honorary memberships? Being a renter and all is a fairly strong qualification in some people's opinion :-) :-).

This whole housing recovery theory is described in this chart.

The article: Existing Home Sales Far Worse Than Advertised

mark546443 says

Houses are selling in 2 weeks or less in my neighborhood. I bought exactly one year ago for $620,000. The house two doors down, same model sold for 975,000. It’s a great time to buy if you buy in the right area for the right price.

Wow! That's almost 50% jump. Even 2004-2005 did not do that much. Which neighborhood is that?

You said great time to buy NOW but your own neighborhood example shows that it was great time to buy in 2008. Did you actually mean that it is ALWAYS great time to buy? What do you think about the the property that was purchased for $975K this year? Is it going to be $1.5M next year, following the current rate of appreciation?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/July-pending-home-sales-rise-apf-2023646788.html?x=0&.v=12

ap
"July pending home sales rise to 2-year high
Pending US home sales rise for sixth straight month in July to highest level since June 2007

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Pending U.S. home sales rose more than expected in July to the highest level in more than two years as first-time buyers rushed to take advantage of a tax credit that expires this fall.

The National Association of Realtors says its seasonally adjusted index of sales contracts signed in July for previously occupied homes rose 3.2 percent to 97.6. It was the sixth straight increase and 12 percent above the same month last year."

Wonder if congress will begin to dole out $15K for ANYONE willing to buy real estate after the $8K is history? Seems as if there are rumblings to that effect. Will $15K entice enough people to go out and buy?

I still keep getting updates of houses being put back on the market that were counted as "pending sales"
last month. I also get updates showing price reductions not increases.
Recently I see signs popping up that say "bank repo open house" on houses that are not listed as even being for sale. These signs appear on the weekend and disappear during the week.
They appear to be unofficial attempts at foreclosure sales.
None of this sounds like an improving market for homes.

nowhere but up from here says

The last two homes in our rental property “area” sold and both have been moved into. Now there are zero homes on the market and I’m getting as much for rent as I did during the “boom” years in ALL my rentals…..yeah, it may suck in your world but mine is moving right along…..America…still the land of opportunity if you have the BALLS to make it work……

If what you say is true about "ALL" your rentals, good for you.

I'm curious...if you are doing so well, why do you come on a board like this to gloat? Don't you have anything better to do with all of your money? Seems kind of pathetic.

nowhere but up from here says

Could it be anymore pathetic than the rhetoric spewed all over the wall here…..talk about imbalance…

Rhetoric or not, but those two questions were legitimate questions. If you want to mention about your bank account then certainly someone else can question why you want to mention it here.

nowhere but up from here says

greed, I should be flogged. Any person using a “term of expression” is in flagrant violation of Patrick.net doom and gloom genre and should be purged from the site. Any further reference to personal sucess will not be tolerated.

As none of the those actions was taken (purging or not tolerating), that makes it a straw man argument. Questioning something does not equate to intolerance.

nowhere but up from here says

P2D2 says

nowhere but up from here says

Could it be anymore pathetic than the rhetoric spewed all over the wall here…..talk about imbalance…

Rhetoric or not, but those two questions were legitimate questions. If you want to mentioned about your bank account then certainly someone else can question why you want to mention it here.

Agreed, I should be flogged. Any person using a “term of expression” is in flagrant violation of Patrick.net doom and gloom genre and should be purged from the site. Any further reference to personal sucess will not be tolerated. Obviously I have no sensitivity to the sufferings of the individuals on this site and only promote my own self interests. Unfortuately, I have no statistical data to confirm or deny this statement…..hahahahahahahah….you guys are priceless

I'd still just like an answer. If you are doing so well, why do you waste your time bragging to a bunch of loser renters? Are you gonna go to the playground next and beat a bunch of 5 yr olds in basketball?

zetabeos1 says

“I’m curious…if you are doing so well, why do you come on a board like this to gloat? Don’t you have anything better to do with all of your money? Seems kind of pathetic.”
I would guess, this person is a realtor.

Wow! Accusing anyone who is not a crepe hanger of being a 'realtor'. Who'd of 'thunk' it? On patrick.net, even.

"Home Prices RISE"

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091027/ap_on_bi_ge/us_home_prices

Third month we are seeing prices rise in the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 major cities. We will continue to view this data and see how it develops.

I see it thusly:
If the leftists are still pleading for that $8K, or $?K, "buyers incentive", then the bottom aint in.
If the news papers put "housing heats up" on the front page, the bottom aint in.
If the unemplyment in a particular locale is still over 10%, the bottom aint in (there).
If the illegal population is not compelled to go home, the bottom aint in.
If welfare Section 8 rentals are not cut, the bottom aint in.

When the incentives are removed (including city and state level incentives), and when the print media is no longer on the REwhore bank-roll, and when more people that want work are working, and when the illegals and their spawn go home, and when welfare Section 8 is cut ... then the market for buying a home in California may very truely be on the level ... dead level ... and just as Doc Nomo says it will be pancake flat for a long, long, looooong time.

On rare occasions, I *do* agree with Bap33.

"I was so ugly as a baby, that my parents had to tie a pork chop around my neck to get the dog to play with me." - Rodney Dangerfield

Yeah pull out all the subsidies & tax credits and let's find out if this is the bottom or not.

this is so hellish, go california go you are HELL

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/10/28/BA621ABOF6.DTL&tsp=1

I’m all for good news, but if a statistically meaningless one month bump in 5 years of data is best result we get from all trillions of BORROWED dollars being dumped into the system, not to mention massive political manipulation of the system, then I’m not that impressed. Somewhere the stimulation has to end because we can’t continue to borrow unprecedented amounts of money forever. What we have done is shift massive unsustainable borrowing from individuals to the government. No country in history has borrowed it’s way to prosperity unless the money was used as an investment in infrastructure, like the US did in the late 1800’s.

I agree with Claire, all the garbage has to shake out first. There will be a bottom, there is always a bottom. Some places may even be there now. But a lot of places aren’t.
--I agree with Bob completely. This is what I've been saying all along. Now one other question, is wanker (I don't capitalize people's names who don't deserve respect) one of those arrogant home owners?

I agree with bob completely. This kind of thing is what I've been saying all along.

Vicente says

On rare occasions, I *do* agree with Bap33.

I second this with some cosmetic corrections:
If the fascists are pushing for that $15K, “ALL buyers" drug shot, then the bottom aint in.
If the news papers put “housing heats up” on the front page, the bottom aint in.
If the REAL unemplyment in California is 20%, the bottom aint in (there).
If the white junk still "owns" exurbs homes rather than going to populate the slams of Detroit, Kansas city etc., the bottom aint in.
If anyone still dares to call the bottom, the bottom aint in.
Finally, if an average American still spends more than 30% of income on housing, the bottom aint in. BTW, these expenditures include all taxes we pay to support housing deductions, credits, housing related bail-outs, government backing of housing lenders and such. Much of these are covered with the "inflation tax".
I think we'll hit the real bottom when our housing expenses will go below 15%. Simply because in healthy economy they need to be lower than expenses for each of the following:

Food
Energy
Education
Health care

But at that level nobody will care about the bottom of housing market, since housing won't be investment, speculation item, hedge against inflation, American dream, etc. It will be just a place we may use for all kind of activities.
Till then all bottom is just a false bottom with all the implications.

youngniceeyes says

I’m all for good news...

Me too, we all are. Falling housing prices - these would be good news.
I would be most happy to news that housing prices fell 60% from their current level.

We are constantly told that unemployment is the "last thing" to improve in an economic recovery.
How can house values go up before people get jobs? Wouldn't real estate have to be the last thing to recover since nobody can get a mortgage without a decent job in the current situation?
In fact won't it take at least a year or two on the job before banks will loan any money to buyers?
How can there be a housing turnaround at all without jobs? It makes no sense.

I’m all for good news...

Right—I'm all for actual good news, but I suspect we won't see a true rebound until credit—and the alleged "economy" that supports—crashes hard. Then, some companies might see the light to build products/services whose value outweighs initial/running costs. All that overpriced junk that's a cost liability is an artifact of the credit bubble—a negative net value and unsupported by fundamentals. How many homes bought in the last 5 years are cost liabilities? Let the fundamentals return and sort out these businesses and their products. I suspect our economy and housing will stabilize at a very different level than the Koolaid years of 2003-5

NAR Economist David Lereah wants you to know that:

A classic "pay no attention to the markets" moment, lmao.

pinnacle says

We are constantly told that unemployment is the “last thing” to improve in an economic recovery.

How can house values go up before people get jobs? Wouldn’t real estate have to be the last thing to recover since nobody can get a mortgage without a decent job in the current situation?

In fact won’t it take at least a year or two on the job before banks will loan any money to buyers?

How can there be a housing turnaround at all without jobs? It makes no sense.

Absolutely agree. But, there is no common sense. Sheeple want to believe what the gubbermint say. It doesnt have to recover, but, it should appear to be in recovery. To get out of this particular recession unemployment should go way down, and people are getting backwards. But again, these are the same people who bought houses at 2005.

The bottom will be here when near the end of the foreclosures on those ARMS. Until then, I plan to stay in my deluxe apartment in the sky!!

today i got an email from CNN "breaking news" saying "-- Economy grows for first time in a year, with GDP rising 3.5 percent in third quarter." ...is this a joke?????????

@Lilsuperstar @EVERYONE

Today i got an email from CNN “breaking news” saying “– Economy grows for first time in a year, with GDP rising 3.5 percent in third quarter.” …is this a joke?????????

No, this is not a joke. The 8% tax credit and cash for clunkers programs are working.... along with the tax breaks Obama laid out in his economic recovery plan. GDP for the past 30 years has been financed with the equity of homeowners. This does not mean that I agree with this method, because I feel the markets should be allowed to reset. We cannot continue to finance GDP with equity. Apparently, the thought is that we have to keep credit flowing..

Obama's economic tax incentives are working, but I disagree with keeping home prices high.

New tax credit
House— About $145 billion for $500 per-worker, $1,000 per-couple tax credits in 2009 and 2010. For the last half of 2009, workers could expect to see about $20 a week less withheld from their paychecks starting around June. Millions of Americans who don’t make enough money to pay federal income taxes could file returns next year and receive checks. Individuals making more than $75,000 and couples making more than $150,000 would receive reduced amounts.
Senate — The credit would phase out at incomes of $70,000 for individuals and couples making more than $140,000 and phase out more quickly, reducing the cost to $140 billion.
Conference- Tax Credit reduced to $400 per worker and $800 per couple in 2009 and 2010 and phaseout begins at $75,000 for individuals and $150,000 for joint filers. Note retirees with no wages get nothing.[27]

Alternative minimum tax
House — No provision.
Senate — About $70 billion to prevent 24 million taxpayers from paying the alternative minimum tax in 2009. The tax was designed to make sure wealthy taxpayers can’t use credits and deductions to avoid paying any taxes or paying at a far lower rate than would otherwise be possible. But it was never indexed to inflation, so critics now contend it taxes people it was not intended to. Congress addresses it each year, usually in the fall.
Conference - Includes a one year increase in AMT floor to $70,950 for joint filers for 2009.[27]

Expanded child credit
House — $18.3 billion to give greater access to the $1,000 per-child tax credit for low income workers in 2009 and 2010. Under current law, workers must make at least $12,550 to receive any portion of the credit. The change eliminates the floor, meaning more workers who pay no federal income taxes could receive checks.
Senate — Sets a new income threshold of $8,100 to receive any portion of the credit, reducing the cost to $7.5 billion.
Conference - The income floor for refunds was set at $3,000 for 2009 & 2010.[28]
Expanded earned income tax credit
House — $4.7 billion to increase the earned income tax credit — which provides money to low income workers — for families with at least three children.
Senate — Same.

Expanded college credit
House — $13.7 billion to provide a $2,500 expanded tax credit for college tuition and related expenses for 2009 and 2010. The credit is phased out for couples making more than $160,000.
Senate — Reduces the amount that can be refunded to low-income families that pay no income taxes, lowering the cost to $13 billion.

Homebuyer credit
House — $2.6 billion to repeal a requirement that a $7,500 first-time homebuyer tax credit be paid back over time for homes purchased from Jan. 1 to July 1, unless the home is sold within three years. The credit is phased out for couples making more than $150,000.
Senate — Doubles the credit to $15,000 for homes purchased for a year after the bill takes effect, increasing the cost to $35.5 billion.
Conference - $8,000 credit for all homes bought between 1/1/2009 and 12/1/2009 and repayment provision repealed for homes purchased in 2009 and held more than three years.[28]
Home energy credit
House — $4.3 billion to provide an expanded credit to homeowners who make their homes more energy-efficient in 2009 and 2010. Homeowners could recoup 30 percent of the cost up to $1,500 of numerous projects, such as installing energy-efficient windows, doors, furnaces and air conditioners.
Senate — Same.
Conference - Same;
Unemployment
House — No similar provision.
Senate — $4.7 billion to exclude from taxation the first $2,400 a person receives in unemployment compensation benefits in 2009.
Conference—Same as Senate
Bonus depreciation
House — $5 billion to extend a provision allowing businesses buying equipment such as computers to speed up its depreciation through 2009.
Senate — Similar.

Money losing companies
House — $15 billion to allow companies to use current losses to offset profits made in the previous five years, instead of two, making them eligible for tax refunds.
Senate — Allows companies to use more of their losses to offset previous profits, increasing the cost to $19.5 billion.
Conference - Limits the carry-back to small companies, revenue under $5 million [29]

Government contractors
House — Repeal a law that takes effect in 2011, requiring government agencies to withhold three percent of payments to contractors to help ensure they pay their tax bills. Repealing the law would cost $11 billion over 10 years, in part because the government could not earn interest by holding the money throughout the year.
Senate — Delays the law from taking effect until 2012, reducing the cost to $291 million.
Energy production
House — $13 billion to extend tax credits for renewable energy production.
Senate — Same.
Conference - Extension is to 2014.

Repeal bank credit
House — Repeal a Treasury provision that allowed firms that buy money-losing banks to use more of the losses as tax credits to offset the profits of the merged banks for tax purposes. The change would increase taxes on the merged banks by $7 billion over 10 years.
Senate — Same.
Bonds
House — $36 billion to subsidize locally issued bonds for school construction, teacher training, economic development and infrastructure improvements.
Senate — $22.8 billion to subsidize locally issued bonds for school construction, industrial development and infrastructure improvements.

Auto sales
House — No similar provision.
Senate — $11 billion to make interest payments on most auto loans and sales tax on cars deductible.
Conference - $2 billion for deduction of sales tax, not interest payments phased out for incomes above $250,000.[30]

lilsuperstar16 says

today i got an email from CNN “breaking news” saying “– Economy grows for first time in a year, with GDP rising 3.5 percent in third quarter.” …is this a joke?????????

CNN just reports it. It is our beloved govt. who is reporting that. Fairly easy to figure it out.

@dadab

today i got an email from CNN “breaking news” saying “– Economy grows for first time in a year, with GDP rising 3.5 percent in third quarter.” …is this a joke?????????

CNN just reports it. It is our beloved govt. who is reporting that. Fairly easy to figure it out.

GIt is silly to make statements that this is conspiracy, GDP rose for the first time in a while. Economists all over the world have come up with these numbers. It does not indicate the bottom of the market slides because if people dont have wage paying jobs then they cannot buy 400K plots of dirt. We have 3 years to go before markets return to normal.

I'm just reporting the facts from the Case-Shiller Home price Index. I don't write the numbers they do. It seems as if this site only wants to report Case-Shiller Home Price Index numbers if they work with the theory that the bottom won't be reached for years to come. Why not report all the information and let the chips fall where they may?

@ 4PLY
Please keep us posted on your house hunt~~~I'd love to see the 3/2 house available in Sierra Madre for $200K.

GDP went up because 2 of the most influential measures it relies on, were heavily stimulated by government deficit spending.

If I am deeply in trouble, but run up all my credit cards to keep up appearances, while having furlough/salary-reduction and possible layoffs looming, you would say I was being extremely irresponsible. You would say this "false wealth" was not based on productive reality, it was illusion and there would be a reckoning.

Why anyone thinks this will end differently for USA I dunno. We seem to have lots of fools who think the horse will learn to sing.

GDP, has a different meaning these days vs say 10-15 years ago. The index is outdated and disconnected to OUR standard of living.

"is a basic measure of a country's economic performance and is the market value of all final goods and services made within the borders of a country in a year. It is a fundamental measurement of production and is very often positively correlated with the standard of living"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GDP

Our nation exported the manufacturing and other functions outside the borders which increased the standard of living of other nations GDP. We may report higher sales of Ipods, but they are engineered / manufactured by far more workers outside our borders than inside. As such the benefit increased overseas standard of living vs declined internally to our borders. A far cry from prior decades.

@willywanker

I reccomend that you check pre-2000 prices before you start believing home prices are not going to recess along with our economy. If you look at the below you will notice that homes were well below 300K prior to the bubble that began early in 2000. If I were to simply continue the curve without using any math I would say homes right now in sierra madre should range between 400-500K yet they still hover above 600K.

We must not be so eager to jump into a house right now, $8,000 is not a lot of money when compared to a 300K depreciation in the value of our properties.