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I have a suggestion, when posting meaningless data, name your fucking source.
The homebuilders rallied hard today, on the expectation that the housing boom will continue, albiet at a slower pace.
I think California home prices will go down 5-10%, nationwide they will be stagnant.
The economy will bumble along, with slower reported GDP than today, but still not in an official recession.
I think inflation will pick up a bit and will continue to outpace incomes, making most people feel like they are treading water.
Corporate profits will remain strong and lending costs will remain low.
SQT, shit man, whoops.
Mr. UP, I'm sorry, especially about the whole "wife with an ass an axe handle wide" comments. But then again, you can drink em pretty but you kain't drink 'em thin.
Just an opinion, but...
All markets will revert to 2000 levels, with approximately 3% per year inflation since then taken into account, which is pretty much in line with the reversion to the results of the recent national housing study that said (for example) that Naples FL is 84% overvalued.
It will take several years, it's a long way down, and everyone who bought after 2000 will take a hit in real terms by the time it is over.
I've sat in on a number conference calls over the last several weeks and the over riding theme has been, "more of the same". At least where equities are concerned, so while not a great deal to get excited about it's good to see the market return to some semblance of fundamentals.
I will revisit "tech" for the first time in a long time. Mort. "Backed" Securities may well become the lead story in the debt paper arena. With so many "homeowners" commiting serial re-fi and "buying time" as ARMS/IO's reset how will investors ever be repaid? This will become a serious disruption to their income stream. Think "seasoned" loans if you need exposure to this asset class. Selectivity and "special situation" stocks will continue to provide the majority of the thunder. Don't be afraid to take concentrated positions. Be nimble!
For the consumer, I think Jimbo nailed it when he talked about an un-official recession and people feeling like they are treading water. Any prediction of YoY home price increases will not mean much to people that are underwater.
2006 will be about having OPTIONS! As consumers and investors. Those with liquidity will be able to exploit short term trades for respectable profits and those with an albatross (RE leverage) well, it will boil down to how to "dispose" of it and somehow save face.
Any discussion of "tightening lending standards" in 2006 will be moot. These are conversations that should've taken place in 2003. Damage control will be the order of the day and lenders/appraisers/sales will be subjected to the same level of scrutiny as the "Mutual Fund Scandal".
NOT INV ADV.
Finally some news on Santa Clara County, thanks Patrick for that link.....finally showing some signs of a slow down.....whew, lets hope it continues....
FYI, we did a thread on this last August: "Fucked County.com"
I will stand by my original predictions.
Serial refinancing or surreal financing?
anotherfuckedborrower.blogspot.com/2006/01/serial-refinancing-or-surreal.html
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Okay folks, Happy New Year to you all and good tidings (even if you're a Republican) and yada yada yada. Let's get down to business: what do YOU think 2006 has in store for the US Economy? I know most of us see a housing slowdown as a foregone conclusion at this point, and the past 2 to 3 months of data seem like a whole lot more than just a "Holliday slowdown." But how much of a housing drop do you see, what areas of the country will lead the charge, and how will it affect GDP and our countries' overall economic health? How will the stock market fare in '06? We've already seen the beginning of the "January effect" in the stock market with a nice rally to start the year off ; how long will it last? How about the bond market, are lower prices and higher yields finally in the cards for '06? Can the American consumer continue to spend despite 6 straight months of a negative savings rate? Will the current account defecit and our addiction to cheap Asian Wal-Mart plastic crap continue?! Is gold the next bubble?! Will energy prices stay high or will we see demand erosion with an economic slowdown??!! So many issues, so many possibilities. Come on now armchair Economists, now's your chance to weigh in!
#housing