patrick.net

SQT,

During my perusal of C/L I see new angles being tried daily. The latest was here in Portland. A licensed RealtorTM slapped up a post titled "Pre-Listing Announcement". Well this I gotta see! Click. Run of the mill 3/2 in Tigard. Effective the 18th this will be listed so this gives you the chance to "swoop" in and get it before the other bidders when it goes on MLS! Ask your husband, he's in securities. This is called "Gun Jumping" and in our world it's highly illegal! It's like saying Google will IPO on the 18th @ 75 but I can get you shares now @ 65! Uncool! His fellow realtors should have this guy barred! Pre-Listing Anouncement! Either list the damn thing or don't. We don't care! But don't play both ends of the market by telling us you're "going" to list it. Sheeesh.

I'll just repeat what SQT said:

"It’s a no brainer that buying a house in a grossly overflated market that is currently in the midst of a slowdown is a bad idea. But no one here believes that buying a house will always be a bad decision."

I certainly plan on buying a house someday, but not at the peak of a housing bubble. In the mean time I'll just happily keep saving & investing more money that I could use for a future downpayment if I so desire. Regarding housing being a "piece of stability", that really depends on your mindset. If that is the way you feel, then you should be all means buy. Other people LIKE the feeling of "freedom" they get from renting and knowing they can toss their stuff in the back of their car/truck and ditch town whenever they want and don't have a $600 grand mortgage hanging around their neck. But if you are someone who HATES renting, by all means buy and pay a premium for the warm fuzzy feeling it gives you.

From http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/Banking/Homebuyingguide/P72655.asp

“If you rent, you’ll always be poor,” declares real-estate cheerleader and bestselling author David Bach...

My word, what a crock of bullshit! I have three times the net worth of my home-debtor friends because of how much money I save in monthly living expenses. Certainly there are times to buy. "Always" is not the time.

"There’s no escaping this wrath of middle-class wipeout that’s going on." -- SeattleDude

Yes there is. And the way to do it is the same as always: don't follow the herd; strike your own path. When the herd thinks they'll "build wealth" by taking on ridiculous amounts of debt, then pay off your own debt and don't take on any more yourself. Instead, build up liquid cash savings and prepare yourself with financial flexibility to take advantage of opportunities when they inevitably arise in the future. As Warren Buffett says "It is best to be fearfull when the masses are greedy, and greedy only when the masses are fearfull." Listen to Mr. Buffett because he is the MAN.

Sorry, too much coffee today.

DinOR,

thanks for the feedback. I am curious, can I actually pay with my IRA (Roth, 410K) account for a piece of land even if I am 25 years away from retirement? Can I pay partially with my IRA account without borrowing against it paying myself interest? Is there any good source of info that I should go check out?

Thanks a bunch.

The best thing to do is spend, buy, and borrow.

What more is there?

Can't you people see?

Why won't you people take out loans and buy big houses in the Bay Area?

You are missing the boat.

PLEASE BUY TODAY!

Thank you!

Here's an intro on it OwnerOccupier:

http://www.realtor.org/rmomag.NSF/pages/featuresept03ira

And that's direct from the Realtors, so you know they want you to do it!

"Is gas overpriced? Yes. Does it suck? Yeah! Should it in all reality be cheaper? Yes. Will the price ever go back to more “normal” levels? NOPE!
Those things don’t fall- why would housing? IT’s the same shit dude- you guys can spin all the super smart PHD education economics" -- Seattledude

I'll spin it for you man--I'm definitely no super smart PHD, but I have an undergrad major in Economics. Gas/energy prices are actually a part of the reason why housing WILL fall. First off, hyrdrocarbons are limited natural resources, therefore the long term trend in their prices is only UP. And I mean way up unless we get some kind of alternative energy source on-line quickly, and that ain't happening. The reason gas prices are way up over the past 1.5 years is simply due to world demand increase--namely China and India rising up to demand a whole lot more oil, and of course US overconsumption has continued.

Anyway, if you do some research and go look at the data, every time there has been a huge energy price spike in the history of any economy in the history of the world, a recession has followed 6 to 12 months later. Energy is just another piece of the puzzle for why we've got a recession coming on. Gas/oil will drop in price a little during the recession due to demand erosion, but you can bet they'll continue way up soon after.

So you see, housing has been a HUGE part of the driver of our US economy since the stock market crash in '01: basically it's the main reason why we have avoided recession up to this point. That and Corporations have been doing well because they had a great excuse to drop the axe and cut the fat after the market crash in '01 and have squeezed a ton more productivity out of their workers without paying them for it (me for example, I'm doing the work of what used to be at least 10 people in my department and have had to FIGHT for raises). Now the housing market has peaked due to one fact only: everyone who can/will buy has already baught. US consumer is tapped out, record levels of consumer/federal debt, 6 straight months of negative savings rate, personal incomes not increasing, you get the picture.

A recession will shake things out and bring back more of a level playing field. Always have, always will. Part of the reason why you are so jaded is the you've been (un)lucky enough to grow up during one of the longest and weirdest bull market runs in world economic history. Remember you are just one persective on the world. Or just one "data point" as the Econ dorks would say. :)

The housing bubble is like other asset bubbles. After the collapse, the fed will pump lots of money supply and lower rates. The derivatives based on GSE's (Fannie and Freddie) may cause tremendous spikes in interest rates as trillions of dollars of derivatives try to unwind in months. The Fed’s dual goals of political and banking stability will cause the Fed to monetize debt as the lender of last resort. The Fed will not try to save or revive the dollar until the crisis is clearly finished. China will not dump its vast holdings of dollar denominated debt because there is no market big enough to absorb it fast enough for China to avoid a vast devaluation of the US debt it still will have. The dollar will remain the world’s reserve currency because there is no other currency capable of replacing it now. The bottom line is the Fed will be able to flood the markets with money and at the same time lower rates to the cheers of everybody.

Scavenger real estate funds will buy repo's. The high end of the housing market will suffer the most on a percentage basis because of overbuilding in luxury condo's and mini mansions. The over building in areas outside the suburb of major cities in recent years will see vacant houses for years. Buyers make the market for every sale but sales will decline rapidly as buyers get gun shy. Speculators and weakly capitalized owners will be cleared out by early 2007. As shown in other countries, housing bubble collapses linger for many years even with lowered interest rates (i.e. in Japan, their central bank effectively went to zero and real estate declined 14 years).

The Fed used to count on the 4 year business cycle found in all economics text books. This cycle seemed to disappear with the emergence of asset bubbles in the 1970's with oil and house causing inflation, then housing in the early to mid 80's and the stock market from the mid 80's to 2000. Each asset bubble was rescued by the Fed flooding the market with more and more money supply. The Fed's repudiation as the hero and lender of last resort grew and grew into mythic proportion until "the Fed head was the second most important person in the free world". Ego's expanded at the Fed enormously, exponentially.

The liquidity (money supply) the Fed provided continues to be a blunt instrument. Arbitrage, derivatives, program trading florish as high risk adjusted returns. Liquidity flows to assets until a peak is exponentially clear. Then trillions in derivatives liqidate. Todays liquidity in the mortgage backed GSE's (Fannie and Freddie) packaged bonds have produced the enormous, expodential funding of mortgages.The whole problem is when the collateral fails through foreclosures and bankruptcy pushing the house into the hands of the GSE's. Borrowing against homes added $600 billion to consumers' spending power in 2004, according to research by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. The Fed did not chose the housing market for liquidity, the derivative market did.

Other central banks across the world have done the same creating trillions and trillions in liquidity. The downward spiral will not be isolated to the US.

The bottom line is the Fed will be able to flood the markets with money and at the same time lower rates to the cheers of everybody. Then the next liquidity, asset bubble will begin again.

Thanks DinOR and San Francisco Renter.

seattledude Says:

"...it doesn’t take a genious to just look around at gas prices, etc… to figure out that Real Estate will not fall that much."

No it doesn't. But does it doesn't take a genius either...

Look, seattledude. Housing in the Bay Area is heading for a correction.
Just like the dot com boom, there aren't any fvcking fundamentals like wage growth to sustain this kind of fantasy fu bullsh-t.

You don't need a fricken' black belt in financial Kung Fu to see
that shit is about to hit the fan. People can't afford gas, they can't afford health care, the wages are low, college doesn't mean sh-t, too many credit/real estate dollars chasing too few houses caused this assest inflation.

Somebody please tell me it's gonna be alright.

Somebody click their heels together and do a Wizard of Oz "there's no place like home, there's no place like home!"

Sombody tell me I'm not a sucker for dumping several grand into a State school MBA program.

Help! Help! Yelp! Yelp! Yikes!

I like that John T. Reed link Sunnyvale_Renter. I'm reading his review of Kiyosaki now, good stuff.

San Jose has some real nice houses in those east foothills. Yes, it's still the place to come if your an illegal mexican and need housing but the foothills are different. The places I used to ride dirt bikes is now filled with 1.5 to 2 million $ houses.

To me San Jose is a wanna be city. It trys hard but it's just got too many uneducated mexicans. It's a mexican town. I happen to like mexicans so it's not a problem. I partucularly like some of the mexican women. Some of them are damn sexy. I no longer try for any of that mexican pussy. It's just too much hassle. It's like all you want is some good latin pussy but you've got to deal with their big ass family. If your like me, you've gotten to a point where you've dated cousins and sisters and friends. Next thing you know it's time to exit the whole latin seen.

It's still nice to see a bunch of sexy latinas stopping at the Albertsons before they head downtown. Nothing like going grocery shopping and seeing lot's of cleavage from the 20 bobbers. But I digress.

The point is is that San Jose will always just be San Jose. They need to change the name perhaps. How bout Sillycon City. How about enforcing the immigration law? Only let the sexy females in. Wouldn't that be great!

This would normally have been a thread I'd be all over. Unfortunately, I've been prevented from posting for quite a while because a client of mine coincidentally is caught in a legal dispute with the NAR. Yesterday, their case was added to the ongoing FTC/Justice case against the NAR, so I still have to be careful (I can't talk economics), but at least now I can come back around here from time-to-time.

My prediction for 2006 is that the NAR and subordinate state associations like CAR, will realize this year that they are the next in line for disintermediation...think travel agents. Once they are forced to open up listing services (the nature of the FTC complaints), there are dozens of upstarts that will bring down agency fees to near-zero. It will happen first in states like CA where RE sales are normalized (don't require lawyers).

I think we'll see things like persistent, MLS-extensions which have blog-like comments enabled for each unique property, and traceability (no more delist/relist), etc., the address data will be the key, not the MLS#. So, unless you want to pay 6% to ride around in a leased Lexus, you won't really need that agent all that much; you can just use a flat-fee doc processor service for the transaction and some other service to do things like manage showings and open houses, but for an hourly rate, not a % of transaction value.

My USD0.02

Ha Ha does that amazing amount of money afford you the ability to buy a fucking life?

If 100K is the "norm" in Ass pounding valley, why is the median household income around 70K.?

I just wanted to post this data to prove that

100K IS VERY ORDINARY SALARY……

Providing a non representative sample doesn't prove much of anything. These companies, and all the hundreds of others in the BA that pay similar salaries, do not represent anywhere near enough of the workforce to imply a median. In fact, the total high-tech workforce in the BA isn't as big as most think. For every high-tech management/professional worker there are upwards of 10 service and manufacturing workers earning *normal* wages. The BA does have the highest concentration of highly paid tech (and other industry) workers in the US metro census, but the numbers are still far smaller than you imply.

Jeffolie,

Great comments! I have a meaningful position in MBS and have been getting little sleep lately. That's not entirely true, I can always find a reason to stare at the ceiling fan in my leased condo. I love your description of the FED as "lender of last resort" and the impact of the derivatives market. I'm trying not to read between the lines here but you state that there is no other currency that can replace the Yankee Dollar now. Should there have been emphasis on the word "now"?

Randy H,

Can you say, Da Bomb?! I make every effort to educate myself in all things bubble yet there was only ONE link that vaguely alluded to the whole FTC/NAR/CAR issue you describe above and then it just fell off the radar. For traders the only thing worse than bad news is NO news. Thanks for "bulking up the file". That is what attorneys call it, isn't it? What to do with the money saved on 6% commissions?

Florida Realtor,

Thanks for your candor. My wife and I often fill drab depressing Oregon weekends touring open houses and quitely calculating just what the HOA fees, taxes and insurance, etc. would run. Granted, many are on a golf course but come on! Even if one could afford to write out a check (and I can't) the monthly fees alone ensure that your wife will have to work AT LEAST part time to feed this alligator! Not to rattle Seattledude's cage but the monthly fees alone easily top our entire mortgage payment on our first house! I'm in no hurry to be a grandparent but wouldn't this money be BETTER SPENT on educating/spoiling them?

SQT,

While I'm not sure it will ever become a reality, an ambitious builder in our capitol of Salem has visions of erecting "high end" lofts with lofty price tags. I've followed more out of curiousity than anything and have I EVER been surprised! The original asking price of about 400K "warm in shell" (basically a concrete bunker) has been lowered at the lender's request to 224K FINISHED! I'm not a builder (thank God) but isn't that about 1/4 of the original asking price? Lenders pouring cold water builders? What is this coming to?

Dude, this is so trippy, check this out, I took (100*50000K + 15,000,000)/101 and got the average salary for these 101 people, it's ~200K.

Ok, wow, then I took (1000*50000K +15,000,000*8)/1001 and got ~170K.

Odd thing about averages, they, like realtors, don't usually tell the truth.

Ha Ha, I know people at Genetec, Applied Mat, Intel, Guidant, Bayer, none of them make over 100K, none of their friends do. Your salary is not the norm, you are highly compensated.

"First of all, 160K is not an amazing amount and does not buy a FUCKING DECENT life in bay area ……" - Ha Ha

Why are you crying about making $160K?

DinOr

The dollar can be replaced as the reserve currency to the world. Currently oil and most commodities are priced in dollars. Even some currencies are pegged to the dollar like china's.

Like most dynasties and fairy tales, reserve currencies do not stand the test of time. Before the dollar became the reserve currency, the British pound was the reserve currencies. With the fall of the British Empire as the dominate trading dynasty ( complete with colonies including India). the dollar took over the role. The British pound was backed by metal as was the dollar when it assumed the role.

When will the dollar lose it role? I don't know when, but history will repeat and the dollar will fall. History shows the fall of the role of reserve currency came after the dynasty was lost, not before. The dollar probably will not lose the role until we lose the role of the only superpower.

DinOR,

A number of court filings, complaints, etc. were made public in the past couple days, so insiders can now talk a bit more. For the past many months a lot of people have been tied up as the NAR fought to keep Justice off thier back. But they failed, hoorah!

Just my opinion, but in the past when complaints have been leveled against the NAR's cartel, they used their immense lobbying power to get Congressional exemptions and such. But there is a very different attitude in DC right now vis-a-vis lobbyists, for obvious reason. I think this may be the perfect storm for the RE crime family--they can't depend upon Congressional favor when everyone's scurrying to distance themselves from K Street. And, on the merits of the case, the Realtors will lose their monopoly. Like I said, my client is among many who stand to gain substantially from "optimizing" the way RE transactions are conducted. It's not unrealistic to expect a vast majority of brokers and agents to disappear over the next 5 years. (I remember when travel agents insisted it couldn't happen to them. Then SABRE was opened up through the same legal process. It didn't even take 5 years for all those pesky travel secretaries to evaporate. So take the NAR's spin with a smile, they're fighting a losing battle.)

RandyH-

Fascinating story...I've often questioned why a realtor deserves such a large commision for "their effort". Change is long overdue, but it's heartening to see a possibility for healthy competition.

On another note, are you still following that home in Corte Madera? Have the sellers dug in their heels and refused to budge on price?

KurtS,

They took it off the market in December. I drove by it a few weeks back and it's sitting empty. Things are definitely getting softer by the day in Marin, as I've seen by what's selling in Corte Madera/Larkspur/Mlil Valley, and what's not moving. The home we're renting now in Tam Valley was going to go up for sale this spring, but the owner is whinning that he's not going to sell with these falling prices. I hope he doesn't, so some deserving family can buy it from him in a year or two for a reasonable price when he finally panics.

the owner is whinning that he’s not going to sell with these falling prices

Perhaps some Marin multiple owners have enough to wait it out, but will we eventually see a race to sell before the next guy? I do hope things get eventually reasonable; the Bay Area economy depends on it.

The problem with San Jose is essentially the people who live in San Jose. You see, the San Hosebagians are the leaders of the "I have a fancy purse, get the fuck out of my way" crowd. You might also know them by, "I am making lease payments on a C class Mercedes, get the fuck out of my way". I could wax poetic all day about the bottom feeders that fill San Hosebag, but that would be like laughing at the retards on the short bus. Ultimately unsatisfying.

It is a city without a soul, it is built on a garbage dump.

surfer-x Says:

"The problem with San Jose is essentially the people who live in San Jose. ...I could wax poetic all day about the bottom feeders that fill San Hosebag, but that would be like laughing at the retards on the short bus: ultimately unsatisfying. It is a city without a soul, it is built on a garbage dump."

It's losing its soul. Not completely soulless, but well on it's way to whoring out whatever spirit remains to various vultures, some of them indigenous and others, second and third-world.

San Jose lost a lot of its soul when the City spent $400,000 taxpayer dollars on a pile-of-dogshit-looking statue of the Aztec god Quetzalcoatl, replete with and enthronement ceremony by high priests in brightly-colored plumage.

Embarrisingly-obvious to anyone with even a grain of aesthetic sense, the "artist" who slapped the piece of shit together and then dumped it down town, no doubt laughed all the way to the bank, and back a few times.

When asked by the good citizens of the City why their hard-earned cash went to an religious idol that once stood for the blood sacrifice of humans who had their hearts cut out in propitiation--in other words to the Devil--the folks were reminded, "It's not a religious symbol, it's a cultural symbol!"

Meanwhile the annual Nativity Scene was banned in the City park to appease the savage liberals, who upheld the separation of Church and State, on the grounds that it was a "religious symbol, not a cultural one!"

I'm originally from San Jose. Spent my whole life there, with short time away for a year in Texas and a few years in the military. I now reside in Phoenix.

I can see where Surfer-X is coming from; however, San Jose did have a cool era, maybe not "golden," but classic Cali in its own way.

"Do you know the way to San Jose? La, la, la..."

They built this city on rock and roll then they let "them" kill it.

Damn them! Damn them all to hell for letting the floodgates open to the Barbarians for a few friggen' pieces of silver!

Woe unto its inhabitants!

San Jose is simply Columbus, Ohio which somehow got lost on its way home to the Midwest.

"For example, with my income and savings I am not able to buy a home in Bay Area." -- Ha Ha

Okay, so you are pointing out the serious problem we have here with our HousingPrice/Income ratio. All well and good, but still you should be thankful for what you have achieved.

"Things are definitely getting softer by the day in Marin, as I’ve seen by what’s selling in Corte Madera/Larkspur/Mlil Valley..." --KurtS

Kurt, do you think Marin will drop much? We have discussed the real estate "intangibles" much on this blog, and while I don't subscribe all that much to them, if there is any place that has the intangibles it is Marin County. I really do feel that place IS "special" and will be shielded from much of the downturn. Seems to me there is a lot of old money and tech boom money there and what not. Don't know if that makes the place immune though...

dear all
There is no need to be pessimistic about everything. Particularly 28 year old talking about the pillage on middle class. DEAR FREIND I feel your pain in some ways. Yes, people who work under me own 2-3 houses and in the hospital where i work they constantly brag about it all day long. This nurse, actually is avery very good person and i like her in a freindly sort of way. So i introduced her to this website, But people are greedy and their emotions take care of their money. SO THERE IS NO POINT ARGUING AGAINST PRICE RISE. IN FACT THE FED FEEDING MONEY INTO THE SYSTEM IT HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE SO MAY BE THE PRICES WONT RAISE THAT MUCH BUT STILL MAY BE STABLE ENOUGH. SO THE RENTERS WILL BE FORCED TO WAIT LONGER AND LONGER.
When the last renter has thrown in the towel and starts buying and thats particularly true with my timing, then the market starts stalling more and more and then may be decline.

You see when i grew up in india, i did not have anything extra, except food and education. So If u ask indians or chinese or people from the 3rd world they would say that it is ok not to own a house. My point is americans need to be prepared slowly , psychologically to accept that middle class will be exploited more and more. However having lived in the US for 13 years i find little patience and this has been instilled well into the immigrants.
But i fear that americans will want a quick fix. IF THERE IS NO FIX THEN U HAVE TO DEAL WITH AMERICAN RAGE. Americans as such are not able to deal with lifes complex problems as wellas say poor thirdworld people.
fOR EXAMPLE WHEN I GO TO INDIA I LOOK AT THE DAY LABORER WHO EARNS LESS THAN A DOLLAR A DAY AND STILL IS ABLE TO SMILE AT U AND GO THROUGH LIFE. sO MY POINT IS THAT IN LIFES COMPLEXITY ONE HAS TO PUT THIS ACQURING MENTALITY¨IN CHECK.

ALSO IF U ARE YOUNG AND CAN AFFORD TO TRAVEL , PLEASE GO TO ARGENTINA, BRAZIL AND THEIR ARE MANY WHITE AMERICANS LIVING THERE. In fact i am enjoying argentina now. ITS AGREAT COUNTRY, VERY HUMBLE PEOPLE AND YOU GET EVERYTHING THAT U CAN GET IN THE US AT FRACTIONAL PRICES. But life is not easy no matter where u live. the hard part is there are no answers.

I agree that San Jose is a lost city. Except for the downtown money pit it's all burbs, urban sprawl. Downtown saturday night is all thugs and cops. ...
but is San Francisco any better? As you drive through in your protective incapsulation(car), you see wayward youth with little hope and middle age
drop outs mixed in with the many mentally ill that were released by Ronnie. Downtown is no place for a decent law abiding person unless you own a business selling chinese food or sell phones and pagers. Go out to the never ending San Jose burbs. It's just so repetitive. Each neighborhood is so plain and dull. The housing bubble has made it obsene too. I mean, at least before you could see why some would live in the SJ burbs, but now your either a fool for buying or a fool for not selling .. Either way, everyone looks like a fool in these SJ burbs.

I know I feel foolish for staying here so long only to watch it slowly go down the shitter. One of these days I'll pack up and move to some beachtown or maybe to the desert. Not too many people live out in the desert. That's the best thing about it.

I want to get rid of my other thoughts too today. My sister who is an expert at political philosophy thinks that the middle class usually sheilds the upper class from the lower class.
If you just have haves and nave nots, with no grey area IE the middle class then the game is over because u cannot exploit the have nots any more.
Look at the welfare sceme in america And i dont blame them because they dont get paid the right wage. I GET PAID TOP DOLLAR IN THE US, SO I PUT UP WITH ALL THE HASSLES AT WORK, HAVE TO PUT IN120 HOURS/WEEK.
My new game is i work part time and spend rest of the time travelling to third world countries where i get better bang for the buck. Also if u dont work too hard then u dont pay too much taxes. This will aslo improve ur perspective.
I am in argentina now and i see that a lot of old people are still working, the hair dresser who must be in her 70-80 is still working. she tells me that she has been doing this for 40years. In THE Us they only do it if they like the job too much. However in the usa we have this concept of retiring at least rich enough so when we can no longer work we can start using that avings. This concept may be detroyed by the fed and the republican for the middle class.

Its actually sad because today in argentina i saw a cab driver who has Parkinsons disesase, he has got thetremors and that too looks obvious, he is still working. Probably got caught in the mess of the financial crisis in argentina.
i am going to stop now.
Bye for now

100k incomes are not that unusual at my hi tech company that employs about 35000 people. A simple SQA eng can make that and not even be that good. I dout that it's average though. I think average at my company is about 60k. That's because of the burn out rate and the propensity to bring in the young blood that starts out at 50k. Heck, I damn sure remember when high level people made 50k. Now, your very likely disgruntled if your pulling that kind of cheddar.

I actually concur with hessefan, I believe that in the next decade, whether the RE bubble bursts or not, or how badly it bursts, the quality of life for an average American will be heading down. We will also be seeing the middle class as a whole marginalised.

Americans grew up with an attitude of I deserve better, I deserve this big home, latest gadget, nice car etc. the list goes on and on. Sometimes I want to tell my American colleagues to see the living condition for the rest of the world, not even in China or India, but a middle class family living in France, or Japan, see what kind of living condition they have as compared to the US counterparts.

Americans are spoilt. USD's status as the world's reserve currency earned us so many free miles, but the day of reckoning will arrive. Debt must be paid, and lifestyle must come in line with earnings. Simple as that.

San Jose is simply Columbus, Ohio which somehow got lost on its way home to the Midwest.

Smile, beer in hand, fucken ehh Randy, god dammit dude, if ever in $anta Barbara, the first 3 bottles of Pinot are on me, I’ll even throw in a grass fed ribeye.

Then.... oh my fucking god* Now, your very likely disgruntled if your pulling that kind of cheddar.

Never, well at least since my buddy Chris described his bunghole as a "balloon knot" did I laugh so hard. Pulling that kind of cheddar, and for Jeebus H Christ sakes, he spelt cheddar correctly, unlike that sister fucking whitebread piece of shit sunnyvale_renter, DUDE it's CAMARO you fucking Luddite.

*Not your god, my god, you fucking piece of shit christians, fuck you and your god, and Pat Robertson. Assholes. Go to fucking hell, your hell, not mine. On second thought, my hell.

Oh and Hessesfan, Love the name. I personally love the 3rd world. Every 2 years I buy a car for no more than $200 and drive it as far into Mexico as it will go. So far I've made it to Chiapas.

Nothing beats buying a solenoid for a '72 duster from a woman standing on a dirt floor in Mexico*. Remember, in Spanish bolt is tornillo and SV_renter is a pendejo

*Fuck you SV_Renter, go the fuck back to Idaho

"“Things are definitely getting softer by the day in Marin, as I’ve seen by what’s selling in Corte Madera/Larkspur/Mlil Valley…” –KurtS"

SF Renter-
Actually, I think RandyH said that, not me. Still, I've noticed a softening in the Fall, but I've taken my attention off things until Spring.

Regarding "intangibles", I do agree that Marin has many pluses to living here, but all the same, most homes and neighborhoods are rather average too me: middle-income houses, with average construction/condition that don't merit these exhorbiant prices. I mean, who wants to devote a $200K salary to an unimpressive 4BR/2000 sqft tract home? I know many people believe Marin is shielded somehow, but I can't decide if that's due to Marin's endemic view of itself, or some actual market strength. Perhaps a bit of both. All the same, if the Bay Area market tanks, it will surely pull Marin down with it. I suspect the credit bubble has a greater reach than merely housing prices, and will ultimately affect Bay Area wages, and spending power. The era of McMansions, 700 sqft kitchens, overpriced "artisan" foods, Humvees, and other excesses of consumption could be ending. Much of Marin lives for this "good life", whether they can afford it or not. It may well hit harder in Marin than the more modest locales.

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