patrick.net

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Year-to-date, China's exports are down 5% compared to last year, while imports have dipped 7.6%

This is due to the baseline effect. The baseline is 2022 when there was still a lot of retail activity at Walmart, Best Buy, etc.

Look at the trucking recession occurring right now.

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Yup. Rapid demographic collapse is a real bitch.

Peter Zeihan predicted this.

Trollhole says

Yup. Rapid demographic collapse is a real bitch.

Peter Zeihan predicted this.

Yes, as far as perhaps GDP growth. But how does this translate to standard of living or quality of life such as in China ?

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Last time China was in this position, it simply devalued its currency by about 33%.

Made manufacturing in China much better than the alternatives.

Why do you think that every right minded Chinese person wants to get their capital out of China?

Sure San Francisco real estate is over valued, but compared to Chinese assets....well...

Misc says

Sure San Francisco real estate is over valued, but compared to Chinese assets....well...

The problem here, is that what do we produce that you want at this point? Jobs here... Why do we need people here for tech?

Need a faster computer? No you don't. I don't. I'm an engineer. You might need a better operating system, Microsoft intentionally slows down the system to make your laptop or desktop "slow". This is easily fixed by a re-install, but after that, it happens more quickly due to updates. I just moved to Linux, 30 years ago. They've been doing this for ages.

Need help trying out Linux? Ping me. You can run it off a USB drive, you do NOT need to install, but you can experience it. 99% of people use their computer just to browse the web anyhow. If you don't install, everything you do is temporary, after a reboot, you're right back to square one. All you need to do is boot off from USB, and that very often requires you to fuck around with BIOS to select boot order. My own machine won't reboot unless I stop the bootup sequence, and select the right device. I'm been amazingly lazy in fixing that when I come to think of it..

Anybody can use Linux at this point. It's a mature operating system, it just has a reputation for nerds and engineers (i.e. professional nerds). You have a disgusting amount of power, but it's all protected by root. You don't need to understand or use this power. You can do bizarre things with this OS. I have a network mount to New Hampshire, and I'm in California - this means I can read the files from that system, like they are local - conditional on the speed of course of the internet connection. You might be like "why would I want to do this??", well, I can copy a file from my local machine to that one, and it's just copying a file and it's accessible 2000 miles away, instantly.

ad says

Yes, as far as perhaps GDP growth. But how does this translate to standard of living or quality of life such as in China ?

Youth unemployment is in the double digits. Which is really bad given China's demographic crisis.The brats don't want to work in factories like their parents did.

And despite all the ghost cities built, housing is unaffordable too.

But the main damage for now is that China is set up to operate in a continuous, high GDP growth boom. Has been for 40 years. Now it is coming to a crashing stop.

China halts release of youth unemployment data

China has decided to halt the release of youth unemployment figures, a month after data showed they reached a record high.

“The economy and society are constantly developing and changing. Statistical work needs continuous improvement”, Fu Linghui, a National Bureau of Statistics spokesman, told a news conference in Beijing, according to the BBC.

The unemployment rate in urban areas reached a record 21.3% for 16-to-24-year-olds in June.

“Chinese statistics often disappear or are revamped when they show undesirable outcomes,” said Chris Low, chief economist at FHN Financial.

For the country as a whole, the unemployment rate in July was 5.3%, up by a tenth, data that was released alongside figures showing a slowdown in retail sales and industrial production growth.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-halts-release-of-youth-unemployment-data-d836a298

I'm sure glad our government doesn't stop reporting un-flattering statistics.

ad says

You have a country that is essentially 95% of the same ethnicity / race, so its not going to be hard to maintain cohesion.

ad says

You have a country that is essentially 95% of the same ethnicity / race, so its not going to be hard to maintain cohesion.

They have a low trust society, unlike the Japanese.

China has a lot of issues, and potential demographic problems, but after visiting it I don't worry too much about it.
They'll keep struggling with some getting ahead, some getting by, and others will die trying (figuratively speaking).

A blessing or a curse in China is the government doesn't spend for a huge welfare state; if your parents are broke you either help them or they go hungry, your parents, your decision.

Imagine how the USA would be without 1. huge welfare state 2. huge military 3. huge government goldbrick employment
We'd all be laughing all the way to the bank with the taxes we would not be paying.

I feel sorry for the Chinese; it's going to be tough to get ahead there for many people outside of the cities.
Oh well.

Patrick says

The BRICS should all simply declare that their currency is 100% backed by silver by weight, instantly redeemable at any time.

As long as they always make good on the redemption promise, their currency will kill the dollar.

On the other hand, they also like the power to simply print money, so they're not likely to give that up.

They won't. Because in reality, having the world's reserve currency pretty much kills your exports. So, you would have to be a nation that doesn't engage much on foreign trade like the US (just 10% to 16% of total GDP is in imports/exports and half that is with Canada and Mexico).

Thus Asia, the EU and most other nations would not want to have a currency that is also the reserve currency.

India might, as it has a pretty closed economy still.

So this BRICS bullshit is all a joke.

Patrick says

The BRICS should all simply declare that their currency is 100% backed by silver by weight, instantly redeemable at any time.

As long as they always make good on the redemption promise, ...

Herein lies the rub....

Apropos, interesting take on Chinese banking from Zeihan: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5_zHjll1M3s

https://babylonbee.com/cleanArticle/president-xi-confirms-chinese-ban-on-bibles-does-not-apply-to-the-message

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makes one wonder how many Chicom spies are there in the USA and Europe

^^^^^^^^^^^
A US researcher has been arrested on charges of stealing trade secrets, including technology used to detect nuclear missile launches, the Justice Department said Wednesday.

Chenguang Gong, 57, of San Jose, California, was arrested on Tuesday, the department said in a statement.
Gong, who was born in China but became a US citizen in 2011, is accused of transferring more than 3,600 files from the research and development company where he briefly worked to personal storage devices.

The company was not identified.

According to court documents, the files included blueprints for infrared sensors used in space-based systems to detect nuclear missile launches and track ballistic and hypersonic missiles.

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3251321/us-researcher-chenguang-gong-arrested-stealing-trade-secrets-including-missile-tracking-tech

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This interview with Bret Weinstein freaked me out as he's fairly level headed. He went Panama to see the various immigrant camps and noted a significant difference between the Chinese and everyone else on the trail to cross into the United States.

https://youtu.be/Pp6ZfoHqkCo?si=1q9ixAaEXcBRIaho&t=188

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Yeah Chicoms sending their eyes and ears (or spies) ... so not all of the Chinese immigrants may be coming with the best of intentions

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The Iranians are simply fleeing the oppressive regime same with the Somalis and those from Yemen.

Back to the OP:

China has a bunch of unsurmountable problems right now. A biggie that nobody is talking about is the threat of bank runs. You see hundreds of millions of Chinese have put their hard earned money into Wealth management products. Generally these instruments pay a guaranteed fixed rate of return (similar to what one would expect by investing in stocks here in the US) and are short term in nature, maturing over just a few months. The marks (Chinese savers) have simply rolled them over every time they expire. The day of realization is coming. The Chinese stock market is in the dumps, Chinese real estate companies are going bankrupt (in a Great Financial Recession sorta way) and some real estate holdings ain't ever gonna be completed.

The funds in these Wealth Management Products are simply numbers on the account holders' statements. The underlying value just ain't there. One day (probably all at once) the marks are simply not going to renew their contracts and POOF all their savings whether in WMPs or other financial assets are simply gone. Social upheaval would probably ensue, but be brutally put down.

For now belief in fiction is alive,

China runs a 45% savings rate for households. - Idiots

China is fucked. Travel a bit around the country. Hell most you guys could drive to AZ, just north of Phoenix by Anthem, AZ. I'll give anyone credit where it's due. The CHIPS act is and will be a hit. Biden sucks, but there's never been a POTUS that's a 100% failure. It's a massive plant. I don't want him re-elected but he's done a few good things. No different than Trump allowing little shit Fauci run Covid. That was a fuck up.

One child policy screwed China. We're moving basic chip making back here. Once that leaves China is fucked. Border issues aside, we have plenty of people that will work for $18/hr. No dealing with cargo ships across the Pacific. West coats unions at ports. It really makes no sense to produce a damn thing in China at this point. The tides are turning.

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Another Chicom hacking story, and what concerns me is they stated they could "compromise" a home router and home computers. How can they do this if there are firewalls in place, unless the router and computer has built-in backdoors ?

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The emails they are accused of sending targets often appeared to be from prominent news outlets or journalists, containing hidden tracking links. If a person opened the email sent to them, their information - including their location and IP addresses - would be sent to a server allegedly controlled by the seven defendants.

This information was then used to enable more "direct and sophisticated targeted hacking, such as compromising the recipients' home routers and other electronic devices", US prosecutors said.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68659095

WookieMan says

One child policy screwed China. We're moving basic chip making back here. Once that leaves China is fucked.

No. Chip manufacture is largely automated, it's a MAJOR INVESTMENT to build a plant, but look at where we are. In 20 years, a computer chip isn't going to be as much of an improvement as it was from a chip 20 years ago.

It's not going to be going from like 1980 to 2000 in terms of computing power in the next year years, it hasn't been in the last 20 years. We have lower power chips, but I wouldn't say computer chips have VASTLY improved in the last 20 years. A machine from 2010 is fine to use, it's just kind of bulky.

The fact that we don't have enough power generation for the AI server farms is going to put a kibosh on demand anyway.

Misc says

The Iranians are simply fleeing the oppressive regime

.... leaving their relatives as hostages behind.

https://notthebee.com/article/map-shows-chinese-owned-farmland-next-to-19-us-military-bases-in-alarming-threat-to-national-security

The New York Post made a map of Chinese-owned farmland ... why is so much of it next to US military bases?

The New York Post has released a disturbing report showing 19 sensitive military installations in close proximity to farmland recently purchased by the Chinese.

Per the report:

Robert S. Spalding III, a retired United States Air Force brigadier general whose work focuses US-China relations told The Post: "It is concerning due to the proximity to strategic locations... These locations can be used to set up intelligence collection sites and the owners can be influential in local politics as we have seen in the past... It is alarming we do not have laws on the books that would prevent the Chinese from buying property in the US."

Take a look at this map and see for yourself.

I don't get the map though. The red areas are crazy large, including the whole Big Island of Hawaii. Can't be right.

Chinese and US are both in a fight to see who can keep from going into a civil war the longest, winner take a all.

Patrick says

I don't get the map though. The red areas are crazy large, including the whole Big Island of Hawaii. Can't be right.

The Big Island's vast interior is volcanic wasteland. Most of the farms are on Maui, I believe.

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

ad says

You have a country that is essentially 95% of the same ethnicity / race, so its not going to be hard to maintain cohesion.

They have a low trust society, unlike the Japanese.

Russia is a very low-trust society as well:

https://www.rt.com/russia/603009-russians-distrust-each-other-poll/

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

ad says

You have a country that is essentially 95% of the same ethnicity / race, so its not going to be hard to maintain cohesion.

cia in action, yet failed.

Patrick says

Russia is a very low-trust society as well:

That's why 90% of your dash cam videos come out of Russia. People fake accidents there all the time.

https://www.wnd.com/2024/09/chinas-economy-nosediving-as-u-s-recognizes-serious-national-security-threat/

China’s economy nosediving as U.S. recognizes serious national security threat ...

McGeever added Morgan Stanley economists are forecasting China’s Gross Domestic Product is expected to only reach 3.9% this year and into 2025. The U.S. economy, meanwhile, is expected to have a GDP growth of 5.5%.

This is a drastic drop from the 4.2% forecast by Morgan Stanley in January, while Goldman Sachs had China with a 4.9% GDP growth, and JPMorgan predicted growth as high as 4.9%.

“China’s stock market is also a notable laggard. As the rising tide of global monetary easing has lifted stock markets around the world to new highs, China has gone in the opposite direction. Shanghai’s blue chip index is down 15% since May, has nearly halved since February 2021, and is close to making new multi-year lows,” McGeever said.

According to a report from Bloomberg, China’s car dealerships are facing an almost $20 billion loss, after Chinese consumers have become reluctant to make major purchases.

Patrick says

The U.S. economy, meanwhile, is expected to have a GDP growth of 5.5%.

Patrick says

McGeever added Morgan Stanley economists are forecasting China’s Gross Domestic Product is expected to only reach 3.9% this year and into 2025. The U.S. economy, meanwhile, is expected to have a GDP growth of 5.5%.

This is a drastic drop from the 4.2% forecast by Morgan Stanley in January, while Goldman Sachs had China with a 4.9% GDP growth, and JPMorgan predicted growth as high as 4.9%.

No one knows China's economy. I don't trust the US on their numbers. They just flubbed on employment numbers hugely. China is likely even worse. Might be negative GDP, but we'll never know. Making numbers up here, but I'd guess less than 100k US citizens go to China every year. I'm sure there's CIA and other intel happening, but they're not economist.

Also, think about it. Tourism is a big deal for most countries. I've never met a person that wants to go to mainland China. Not one. It's only business travelers. The Chinese I've met come to the US (obviously). I was at Grand Teton NP and a Chinese lady was lost. I seriously have no clue how. That's an easy park to navigate.

So my wife and I got in fight before entering the park. She smashes a muffin on me saying she hopes a bear eats me. So I have muffin on me, we stop to take pictures and this Chinese gal comes at me. 6-12" from my face. We had been in the park the previous day. I was polite, but I was just like for real? You can't find the entrance. I don't care about language. The muffin all over my shirt was funny though. Didn't even think about it. She's probably like these crazy fucking Americans. We were that morning.

Also the hill billy fireworks being unloaded was hysterical in a pinkies up mountain town. Not an amazing show, but it was cool with the mountain echo. They had a rental truck. No explosive markings on the truck. I knew we were in for a good show. And of course we got in an argument about being able to see the fireworks from the balcony of the condo. I was right. Just sat there with a beer watching fireworks blow up from a mountain. She wanted to sit in the field with a bunch of other fucking humans. Sorry, I don't like crowds.

https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/pick-your-poison

Prices Won't Stop Falling in China, and Beijing Is Grasping for Solutions
Companies are pumping out goods amid falling prices, creating vicious cycle that is eroding confidence

The country that invented paper is making way too much of it.

So Shandong Chenming Paper, one of China’s biggest paper manufacturers, did what any company faced with overcapacity would do: It cut prices to unload more supply while it tried to ride out the storm.

Instead, its losses mounted. Last month, the company said it had racked up around $250 million in overdue debts. Creditors sued and some of the manufacturer’s bank accounts were frozen, it said.

The papermaker’s troubles are only the latest sign of the havoc caused by falling prices in China, as factories struggle to cope with overcapacity and weak demand.

Chinese leaders this week pledged to do more to stimulate the economy, including by cutting interest rates and boosting government borrowing. But pressure is building on Beijing to take even more forceful action to prevent a downward spiral of deflation that becomes self-reinforcing, potentially landing China in a longer-term recession.

Prices for goods leaving Chinese factories have fallen year-over-year for 26 consecutive months, dropping 2.5% in November from a year earlier, and there is little sign of them turning up again soon. China’s gross domestic product deflator, a broader gauge of price levels across the economy, has been in negative territory for six consecutive quarters, the longest stretch since the late 1990s.

The fear is that deflation is becoming ingrained in China. As falling prices sap profitability, companies could postpone investments or shed workers, leading more people to cut back on spending. Others might put off purchases because they think prices will drop even more.

“It becomes a vicious cycle,” said Penelope Prime, founding director of the China Research Center, an Atlanta-based think tank.

This week, China’s 24-man Politburo said it would implement more proactive fiscal policy and adopt a “moderately loose” monetary policy next year—the first introduction of such language since 2008. The leaders also vowed to boost domestic demand and stabilize the housing market, which some economists have said is needed to reignite inflation.

At Shandong Chenming Paper bosses wound up shutting down nearly three-quarters of the manufacturer’s production capacity. The company didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Other companies have kept cranking out more. China’s output of paper and paperboard year to date through October is up about 10% from the same period last year, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Prices for paper products leaving Chinese factories have been dropping year-over-year since October 2022.

Other industries have followed a similar pattern. William Li, chief executive of Chinese electric-car company NIO, said on a call with analysts in September that makers of internal-combustion-engine vehicles in China have entered an “unsustainable cycle or a vicious cycle” of price cutting, hurting profits. Vehicle production in China continues to rise.

The problem is that once expectations for lower prices become entrenched, it is hard to turn them around. “The longer deflation lasts, it becomes entrenched into people’s expectations about future economic prospects,” said Eswar Prasad, professor of trade policy at Cornell University and a former head of the International Monetary Fund’s China division. “It becomes harder and harder to use macroeconomic stimulus.”

Lisa Wang, a salesperson at a textile manufacturer in China’s Zhejiang province, said new tariffs under Trump could add more pressure. Her factory has already had to cut prices to compete with the many other factories that make similar bedding products, eating into profits and forcing it to cut its workforce from about 600 people before the Covid-19 pandemic to about 400 today.

So deflation is NOT a good thing? Who would have thought...

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https://therecord.media/two-army-soldiers-charged-selling-secrets-to-china

Two US Army soldiers charged with selling military secrets to China

Two active-duty and one former U.S. Army soldiers were arrested on Thursday for allegedly stealing classified materials from the military and selling them to conspirators in China.

Ruoyo Duan — who served in the military from 2013 until 2017 — and 1st Lt. Li Tian were charged with conspiring to commit bribery and theft of government property. Jian Zhao, a battery supply sergeant, faces the same charges, as well as conspiring to obtain and transmit national defense information to an individual not authorized to receive it.

Both Zhao and Tian were stationed at Joint Base Lewis-McChord near Tacoma, according to separate federal grand jury indictments.
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AD says

Two US Army soldiers charged with selling military secrets to China

Were they really "selling," or is China where Zhao's Duan's and Tian's real allegiance lie.

HeadSet says

AD says

Two US Army soldiers charged with selling military secrets to China

Were they really "selling," or is China where Zhao's Duan's and Tian's real allegiance lie.

both