patrick.net

Yesterday, after spending months predicting tariff apocalypse, the Wall Street Journal ran a story headlined, “How the U.S. Economy Has Defied Doomsday Predictions on Tariffs.” The baffled sub-headline admitted, “Inflation is lower than expected after President Trump’s steep levies. The U.S. economy continues to grow.”

You remember the refrain: “Foreign countries don’t pay tariffs— American consumers do!” But, as Trump predicted, companies have adapted. “Companies,” the Journal explained, “have moved production from countries facing high tariffs—especially China—to countries such as Vietnam, Mexico and Turkey that face lower levies.”

“Economists worried tariffs would drag down consumer spending,” the Journal said, in a paroxysm of understatement. But for some reason the experts’ predictions failed to account for adaptation. Don’t wait for an apology.

“I’m not sure tariffs mattered as much as people thought they would,” graciously conceded Kelly Kowalski, head of investment strategies at MassMutual. Now they tell us. For example, “Average auto prices in September were only about 1.1% higher than March, even though car imports from many countries faced tariffs of 15% or more.” So.

The stiff-necked Journal, not even slightly prepared to concede defeat, stubbornly embarked on a convoluted, circuitous argument that all the companies had decided, maybe at a group therapy session, to eat the costs themselves, since they were all already enjoying stellar profits. In other words, the Journal wants us to believe they sacrificed profits to avoid losing sales from higher prices, which would have sacrificed profits. Okay.

(If that math doesn’t add up, that is correct.)

Curiously, as things stood yesterday, India (100%), Canada (45%), and Mexico (35%) now face the highest tariff rates. All the Asian countries (even China) plus the UK enjoy the lowest rates. There’s much to say about how Trump’s tariff strategy is helping squash globalism like a pudgy palmetto bug; instead, the tariffs are steadily building a new, more stable multipolar world. But I’ll save that for a future post.

And, what more can we possibly say about experts? In legal circles, litigators and judges have long viewed experts with cynicism, slightly below payday loan operators, since we know from daily experience that any decent lawyer can scare up an expert to advocate a radically different opinion about the exact same facts, such as whether the sky is blue or not. “Consensus” is but one factor in admitting expert evidence, and minority or dissenting views are usually always allowed.

Guess who gets to decide which expert is right? We do. Juries of lay people, chosen at random from local pools of registered voters. Not scientists, technocrats, elites, bureaucrats, journalists, or former bartendresses. Just regular Americans.

Yesterday, after spending months predicting tariff apocalypse, the Wall Street Journal ran a story headlined, “How the U.S. Economy Has Defied Doomsday Predictions on Tariffs.”

Trump Implements Major Rollback of Food Tariffs
The president moved to lower duties on beef, coffee and dozens of other goods

WASHINGTON—President Trump on Friday moved to lower tariffs on beef, coffee and dozens of agricultural and food goods, marking a significant rollback of his so-called reciprocal levies as he looks for ways to address Americans’ concerns about the cost of living.
Trump issued an executive order modifying the reciprocal levies he imposed on virtually every trading partner in August, exempting more than a hundred common food items including fruits, nuts and spices.
The move continues a shift away from Trump’s maximalist tariff policy. When the president announced his reciprocal tariffs this spring, his economic team insisted there would be no exemptions to the levies. They later relented, removing duties on certain items not produced in the U.S., or available in sufficient quantities from domestic suppliers to meet demand. 
The newly exempted products on Friday, however, include many products commonly produced in the U.S.—such as beef, which has risen to record prices in recent months.

President Trump on Monday unveiled $12 billion in aid to US farmers, as the agricultural sector deals with the fallout from his sweeping tariff policies. Trump and other top administration officials discussed the package at a roundtable event with farmers at the White House.

The sector has been hit particularly hard from the president's ever-changing trade policies, as they have struggled to sell crops and been hit by higher costs. Soybean exports have come in particular focus, with trade slowing to a crawl as China virtually halted its purchases before the countries agreed to a trade truce in October.

America has enough land for cattle that we should be able to supply the whole US easily.

We cannot grow coffee or bananas, but America has enough land for cattle that we should be able to supply the whole US easily.

But...but we were told that tariffs would cause ruinous housing material costs!!!!

MolotovCocktail says

But...but we were told that tariffs would cause ruinous housing material costs!!!!

Why? I did plenty of house restoration work back in the day and all the lumber, siding, bricks, concrete, drywall, roofing, plumbing, electric, and HVAC were all US made. Same with carpet and flooring. Toilet guts like Fluidmaster were imported, but Korky had American made alternatives.