patrick.net

RWSGFY says

thats a troop surge, we did same in afghanistan. world is a fucked up place

It's almost the end of winter. Any update on the offensive? Is it habbening right now?

PeopleUnited says

So as an American why should my government or countrymen have anything to do with this regional conflict?

Same reason our government and countrymen were involved with Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, and probably many more - Americans really don't care, and those that do, they aren't going to do anything about it.

All the government has to say, and HAS said, for 20 years "that if you're not with us, you're with the TERRORISTS, terrorist!!!" and people cower in fear.

If you're upset Antifa and BLM ran riot for 9 months, you're a terrorist. If you think the election was stolen in 2020 and 2022, you're a terrorist. You're a terrorist if you complain about LGBTQ crap in elementary schools. You're a terrorist if you don't think that children should transgender at 5. You're a terrorist if this, and that, and blah blah blah. If you don't get along with whatever, and I mean whatever this criminal, psychopathic deep state does, you're a "terrorist".

That shuts up 90% of people who even recognize there's something wrong. People are pussies.

cisTits says

And the moment these referendums pass, Putin will declare these parts to be Russian territory. That means any Uke Nazi troops in there will constitute an attack on Russia proper.

Crimea has already been bombed.

jykiodfgr says

Right when the EU runs out of energy for life.

"Funds for the 300,000 contract soldiers will be provided by the extra revenue Russia got thanks to western sanctions"

jykiodfgr says

North Korea negotiating to provide 100,000 troops to gain experience in the Ukraines for the upcoming South Korean campaign?

This is gotta be the worst prediction thread about Ukraine war I have seen on Patnet, and it is saying a lot.

Bd6r says

This is gotta be the worst prediction thread about Ukraine war I have seen on Patnet, and it is saying a lot.

War will go on for AT LEAST 4 more years.

There's predictions that it will end this summer, I say BULLSHIT.

War itself might end, but it will end up like North and South Korea, where there's no settlement and constant provocations. I think that's what the US is aiming for, Cold War II.

richwicks says

War itself might end, but it will end up like North and South Korea, where there's no settlement and constant provocations. I think that's what the US is aiming for, Cold War II.

Preferrably with outbursts of expensive HIMARS missile exchanges for maximum costplus contracts.

Still waiting for the alleged offensive.

Now the rumor is that Ukraine will try to capture the huge stockpile of Soviet Era ammo on Transnistria.

Booger says

Now the rumor is that Ukraine will try to capture the huge stockpile of Soviet Era ammo on Transnistria.

Would ammunition that is 30 years old even work at this point? I don't think a bullet that old is likely to work. They do have a shelf life.

If Russian T-72 tanks can run, I'd put money that 30 year old ammo will work.

Misc says

If Russian T-72 tanks can run, I'd put money that 30 year old ammo will work.

Well, you can store a tank in an argon atmosphere, or I think even nitrogen, to prevent rust.

I think the problem with ammo is that the propellants break down over time. The US is sending junk to Ukraine knowing that some of it won't work. I hate this war. I don't think the US has ANY expectation that Ukraine can win, and they're just using Ukraine as a way to sell garbage to Ukraine (by "loaning" money to Ukraine) which they will recover by enslaving Ukraine in unpayable debt - at least what is left of Ukraine. Not that they care if Ukraine pays the US back or not, the US taxpayer will otherwise.

richwicks says

Would ammunition that is 30 years old even work at this point?

I didn't click the link below but I knew it was true.

https://lundestudio.com/ › how-long-does-ammo-last
How Long Does Ammo Last? Your 2022 Full Guide - Lunde Studio
Aug 1, 2021 Ammo can have a minimum of 10 years and may last indefinitely, but several factors affect its overall shelf life. These include the ammunition storage conditions and the manufacturing practices present. Quality ammunition that is stored correctly in your gun cabinet may work even after a hundred years.

Just keep your powder dry and your great grand kids can fire off your rounds.

Onvacation says

Just keep your powder dry and your great grand kids can fire off your rounds.

I think the operative word there is "may work"...

The Javelin missiles (? I think that's what they were, some missile anyhow) that US sent over I HEARD were sometimes (oftentimes?) misfiring because they were all beyond their due date. Who knows though. During war, there's just too much propaganda and there's no way to confirm such a claim or disprove it, unless you were there.

Still waiting for that massage Russian offensive that was supposed to happen today.

Booger says

Still waiting for that massage Russian offensive that was supposed to happen today.

The Russians don't announce what they are going to do ahead of time. Ukraine does because they are only fighting a public relations war. They know the ground war is lost.

The war is going to go on for years.

richwicks says

They know the ground war is lost.

The war is going to go on for years.

The war is "lost", but it will also go on for years?

What has Russia "won" in the past year other than needless death and destruction?

https://youtu.be/RyFWKgdZFSE

Hitler reacts to the first year of war in Ukraine..

socal2 says

What has Russia "won" in the past year other than needless death and destruction?

Lost prestige. NATO expansion.

Booger says

Still waiting for that massage Russian offensive that was supposed to happen today.

Are you talking about meeting the Slav ladies at the local parlor?

Or spell check fucked up.

Onvacation says

Are you talking about meeting the Slav ladies at the local parlor?

But without the "happy ending."

socal2 says

richwicks says

They know the ground war is lost.

The war is going to go on for years.

The war is "lost", but it will also go on for years?

What has Russia "won" in the past year other than needless death and destruction?

I don't get certain takes on this conflict. Yes it generally takes years to "win" a war. There's no evidence of that though. If "winning" is decimating your demographics for 2-3 decades have at it. Our dumb wars really didn't result in that much loss of American men in reality. We lost more young men in Chicago during the 20 years in Afghanistan and Iraq. Now throw in Baltimore, LA, NYC, Miami, etc. with the basic gang killings.

Russia is forcing itself into a corner. I think it's over, the country itself. They literally will run out of men to fight. 40 mile convoy on narrow roads and they didn't bring fuel or food? They were sitting ducks. You don't even need to be an advanced military to smash that. Blow up the first 50 cars and the road is blocked. Then the back 50 and kill or capture the middle 1,000 trucks and equipment.

They basically transferred a good amount of their ammo, vehicles, guns, tanks to the Ukrainians. Then lost men that can build, operate, maintain said equipment. Ukraine can be aggressive because if they lose something, they know they'll get more of it from the west. It will drag out for sure, but without using nukes, Russia loses this in a prolonged conflict. Russia cannot rebuild its equipment fast enough because of conscription and mercenaries. Peace talks are the only thing that stops this, but I think this takes 1M dead at least. You can't lose 1M+ men in a country with that demographic and come out on top long term. Russia is fighting the West, not Ukraine. They will lose.

socal2 says

The war is "lost", but it will also go on for years?

I have pointed out multiple times that this is a war of attrition and a proxy war between the United States and Russia. From the point of view of the United States it is to weaken Russia, and from the point of view of Russia at this point, it is to weaken NATO and the United States. Ukraine is caught in the middle.

https://patrick.net/post/1343140/2021-12-29-a-ukraine-war-and-the-end-of-russia?start=1#comment-1808895

richwicks says

Ceffer says

Meanwhile, back in Ukraine........

Who cares. The cabal that runs the United States is just killing all of us with these stupid wars. Russia will fight a war of attrition and just allow the US to continue to bankrupt the entire nation for something 99.99% of the US population has no stake in. The Middle East has been doing this for 2 decades now.

I bet if it came to war in Ukraine, Russia wouldn't even cut off their energy exports to Europe although the US might sabotage these pipelines and then attempt to blame Russia.

The United States is causing this conflict, not Russia. It's just another example of the insanity that runs this nation. The US has bombed 7 nations over the last 20 years - has this in any way benefited this nation?

I have to admit, I was uncannily lucky in that prediction. The sabotage of the pipeline was done on September 28, 2022 and I wrote that post on Dec 29, 2021, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia was on February 24, 2022.

Our fucking asshole stupid shithead goverment intelligence agencies are entirely predictable at this point, because they've been doing the same fucking thing for my entire adult life. Same fucking lies too. Saddam Hussein is the next Hitler! Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is the next Hitler! Muammar Qaddafi is the next Hitler! Bashir al-Assad is the next Hitler! Putin is the next Hitler! My ENTIRE adult life.

It's not so much that our traitorous intelligence agencies lie to us, violate the Constitution, fake the intelligence to start war after war so much, it's that the "people"(?) around me don't notice it. They can't see the pattern no matter how fucking obvious it is. I'm so tired of it. I'm so tired of living in a nation of idiots.

Ted Kaczynski I know how similar feelings, but it was in regard to technology and how it WOULD be abused. He has an IQ of 160 it's said, he's really brilliant, he was a victim of MKUltra (I wasn't, AFAIK) and he just dropped out of society after a point, although he must have been funded by somebody. I can't agree with him murdering people, because it's pointless to do so, but I have some idea of how he felt. I used to joke I was the next Ted Kaczynski. I doubt I really am, but I have some level of sympathy for him.

Putin is just an old school Geopolitican, unremarkable in the 19th or first half of the 20th in any Country.

But very remarkable and infamous today for not giving service to the Washington Consensus/International Law theory bullshit that is now the Norm.

In any case, as mentioned long ago, Mearsheimer predicted all of this to the last jot and tittle a decade ago.

socal2 says

What has Russia "won" in the past year other than needless death and destruction?

socal2 says

What has Russia "won" in the past year other than needless death and destruction?

Not exactly sure who the "Kasparian mafia" is but according to this video Russia is exterminating them in Ukraine.

Booger says

Still waiting for the alleged offensive.

Now the rumor is that Ukraine will try to capture the huge stockpile of Soviet Era ammo on Transnistria.

They said winter offensive, they didn’t say what year. Those sneaky Russians we’re speculating about 2043.

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

They said winter offensive, they didn’t say what year. Those sneaky Russians we’re speculating about 2043.

Did the RUSSIANS say this or did US "news" or some lying US politician or Intelligence asset say this?

Makes a big difference, because the Smith-Mundt Act is no more.

richwicks says

Ted Kaczynski I know how similar feelings, but it was in regard to technology and how it WOULD be abused. He has an IQ of 160 it's said, he's really brilliant, he was a victim of MKUltra (I wasn't, AFAIK) and he just dropped out of society after a point,

WRONG. Ted Kacynski was just another psycho killer, no different than any other serial murderer. If he had "brains" and wanted to make a change, he would have targeted corporate leaders and politicians that were putting in place the policies he considered evil. Creating booby traps that killed random folks who happened to stumble across those traps is just another trait of a coward that likes to kill.

So, today was the Equinox which means the whatever is going on the winter offensive is over. Any notable achievements? I can't recollect any, but I could be wrong.

Eric Holder says

Any notable achievements?

Russia squandered huge amounts of manpower.

cisTits says

Booger says

Russia squandered huge amounts of manpower.

It's the Ukeys who did that. On the Russian side, Wagner Group and convicts have done most of the dying, not Russian Army regulars.

Link? Either way, this Russian military juggernaut can barely even control a sliver of a state the size of Texas. Congrats Russia! lol.

This whole thing is hysterical at this point. A bunch of morons fighting over something that was easily negotiable without the loss of life. They're all drunk idiots.

WookieMan says

A bunch of morons fighting over something that was easily negotiable

I see it as the US refusing to negotiate, and instead saying "Let's make Ukraine and Russia fight."