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Two Years is Generous


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2022 Jul 22, 4:18pm   9,792 views  88 comments

by NuttBoxer   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

I think we have months left. Lots have been in our place before, and denied history like many will now. But the arrogance of thinking somehow we're special, that the rules don't apply to us will end bitterly. Prepare while you still can.

"Today the US government’s debt to GDP ratio is about 120% and its budget deficit is forecast to be about 7% of GDP this year A 300 basis point [interest rate] hike should increase the budget deficit to about 11% of GDP. Since 1991, all 18 other governments with deficits exceeding 11% of GDP and debt to GDP ratios exceeding 110% defaulted within two year. Thus, the Fed could soon be trapped: raising rates could trigger default and not raising them could leave inflation unchecked. Similar dilemmas in other countries have often caused extreme crises, e.g., Argentina Brazil, and Venezela; the US may soon join the club.

- Luke Gromen in FFTT Tree Rings, 15 July 2022, quoting Hirschman Capital Year-End 2021 Letter.

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38   Patrick   2022 Jul 25, 10:01am  

NuttBoxer says

Goat milk can take a little time to get used to.


I bought some once and just could not finish it. But then, de gustibus non disputandum est.
39   Bd6r   2022 Jul 25, 11:19am  

NuttBoxer says

Goat milk can take a little time to get used to.

If goat is kept very clean, milk taste is much better, almost none of specific goat taste.
40   RWSGFY   2022 Jul 25, 11:49am  

NuttBoxer says

I think we have months left.


Let's "remember this twit" and check back at 6 and 12 months.
41   NuttBoxer   2022 Jul 25, 12:23pm  

Or you could reference multiple comments I've made back to 2020 saying we have three years left(expires this December).

But since you made this personal, guessing you've been so caught up in your Russian boogeyman theory, you haven't done shit to free yourself from the government you should have been focused on this whole time.
42   RWSGFY   2022 Jul 25, 12:38pm  

RWSGFY says

awaiting moderation


What exactly is "personal" or worthy of moderation in the promise to remember the prediction and revisit it later at 6 and 12 month mark? How insecure and butthurt the cunt who marked it personal must be?
43   Shaman   2022 Jul 25, 12:52pm  

Best way to eat lamb is in curry sauce. Tasty that way and the curry obliterates the gamey taste.
Second best is a little weird: hamburger. Have the butcher make the burger with lamb meat chunks interspersed with lard. Super tasty when grilled. Halal or Lebanese butchers will do this no problem.
44   richwicks   2022 Jul 25, 12:53pm  

NuttBoxer says

But since you made this personal, guessing you've been so caught up in your Russian boogeyman theory, you haven't done shit to free yourself from the government you should have been focused on this whole time.


Don't condemn people for believing the propaganda. It's run by a literal army of psychologists.

I heard an interesting take on this on a podcast this morning. The way to bring people to your side is ignore their insults and just explain what they don't know. Ron Paul did this. He certainly took feedback, but he never addressed what was bullshit or false, he just answered questions.

Partially (maybe in a large part) because of Ron Paul, we can have conversations about the unaudited Federal Reserve today.
45   Patrick   2022 Jul 25, 1:06pm  

RWSGFY says

What exactly is "personal" or worthy of moderation


Saying "this twit".

That's personal, being about him and not being about the topic.
46   RWSGFY   2022 Jul 25, 1:11pm  

Patrick says

RWSGFY says


What exactly is "personal" or worthy of moderation


Saying "this twit".

That's personal, being about him and not being about the topic.


Huh? "Remember this twit" is a common Internet phrase meaning "remember this post"
and originally referred to a post on Twitter, called "twits".

47   NuttBoxer   2022 Jul 25, 4:49pm  

RWSGFY says

RWSGFY says


awaiting moderation


What exactly is "personal" or worthy of moderation in the promise to remember the prediction and revisit it later at 6 and 12 month mark? How insecure and butthurt the cunt who marked it personal must be?


Seemed like an intentional mis-spelling. If that wasn't the case, just needs to be edited. No problem at all with you calling out my prediction, or any of the previous one's I've made.
48   AD   2022 Jul 26, 12:27am  

Debt to GDP peaked at 136 back in 2020 (source https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S )

So that is good news if it is 120 as it has trended down and may continue to trend down as the government inflates its way out of a debt crisis.

But I agree, as the trade-off is that inflation is essentially a tax on the working and middle class to sustain the government's solvency.

They could raise taxes that expire in 3 years or make modest cuts to spending to reduce the debt.

It will be interesting to see what tax revenues are for 2022.
49   GNL   2022 Jul 26, 5:21am  

ad says

Debt to GDP peaked at 136 back in 2020 (source https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S )

So that is good news if it is 120 as it has trended down and may continue to trend down as the government inflates its way out of a debt crisis.

But I agree, as the trade-off is that inflation is essentially a tax on the working and middle class to sustain the government's solvency.

They could raise taxes that expire in 3 years or make modest cuts to spending to reduce the debt.

It will be interesting to see what tax revenues are for 2022.

So, the way you bring the debt to GDP ratio down is to print more $$? Jeez, printing more $$ has 0 downsides?
50   PeopleUnited   2022 Jul 26, 5:41am  

Patrick says

RWSGFY says


What exactly is "personal" or worthy of moderation


Saying "this twit".

That's personal, being about him and not being about the topic.

Ok but in another thread a post that was later removed for being personal was subsequently quoted by another User and when it was marked personal you allowed the quoted remark which is still personal, to remain.
51   WookieMan   2022 Jul 26, 6:29am  

NuttBoxer says

lamb is by far the best ground meat you can have, super flavorful. Goat milk can take a little time to get used to. But my daughters all drink it, and we actually prefer it to cow milk.

I like lamb a lot if it's quality and cooked properly. I make some really good greek/gyro style meatballs with ground lamb and pork.

On the whole debt thing. We don't have to repay it. As mell said there will be a reset of the financial system to an extent. I don't think it will be a crisis or collapse, outside of some in the banking industry jumping out of buildings. You, we, us and the government don't have to repay it. No one can force us. The rest of the world is in worse shape by a long shot. Especially right now with the Ukraine shit and China virus still fucking up the supply chain.

I hate the inflation, we do need to tap the brakes on it if we can, but most people I know are doing substantially well. Most white collar workers and the blue collars here in IL always make bank if working for the government.

I liked the economy before Covid, but I'm just still not seeing a massive collapse of any kind. Recession for sure. Probably not as bad as the housing crash. We're going to look back 20 years from now and ultimately realize how bad that was. The saving grace is that it was a collapse in physical assets people need. Prices on a home can drop, but people still need a roof over their head (unless in CA, lol). And that's not a knock, just saying y'all have quite the homeless situation out there.

The supply chain issues are of biggest concern if you don't have the resources. I'm not a prepper, but I easily have 2 months of food in my house. When shit hits the fan, generally Americans are all hands on deck. Or so I hope. We'll see. This is what happens when POTUS doesn't lead. Confidence erodes. I think November could turn it around though. Our political cycle got fucked in 2020. I think it will get better, as what is happing now ain't working.
52   AD   2022 Jul 26, 12:16pm  

WineHorror1 says

So, the way you bring the debt to GDP ratio down is to print more $$? Jeez, printing more $$ has 0 downsides?


The tradeoff or downside is that the working stiffs or working class as well as those on limited income such as social security end up suffering the most.

There may be a 5% increase in social security payment but a vast majority of their expenses increased by 8%.

So they lose 3% of buying power.

This forces them to make cuts to spending as Walmart has reported today in its earning guidance and forecast in regards to inflationary conditions.

Seems like Wall Street and Main Street are expecting the Fed to raise the Fed Funds rate by 0.75% this week, that is from 1.75% to 2.5%.

It was 0.25% from around 2009 to 2016. It peaked at around 2.75% in 2018.

At least gas prices here in Florida panhandle went down from the recent peak of $4.75 to currently about $3.80.

.
53   AD   2022 Jul 26, 12:17pm  

I suspect Fed may try to raise the Fed Funds rate to at least 4.5% in order to give enough margin to lower rates without going back to a Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) like from 2009 to 2016.
54   AD   2022 Jul 26, 1:39pm  

Social Security and VA disability payments went up 5.9% at the end of 2021 yet inflation was 7.1% in 2021.

The federal government and Fed look at this as one way to distribute the burden. I would say slightly raise taxes on higher income earners for no more than 2 years and hold spending constant for two years. This is one way to reduce the debt to GDP ratio very quickly.
55   Bd6r   2022 Jul 26, 2:17pm  

ad says

hold spending constant for two years

what is the chance of this happening???
56   richwicks   2022 Jul 26, 4:00pm  

Bd6r says

ad says


hold spending constant for two years

what is the chance of this happening???


0, of course.

Man, the government doesn't give a fuck about the population. They actively attack it now. They don't need tax revenue, they just get as much fucking money as they want from the Federal Reserve.
57   NuttBoxer   2022 Jul 26, 8:40pm  

ad says

The tradeoff or downside is that the working stiffs or working class as well as those on limited income such as social security end up suffering the most.


To start off, and at small scale. But over a long enough period of time, inflation takes everything, from all of us. Through booms we are encouraged to overspend, and through busts, our land and possessions are repo'd or sold for pennies on the dollar. All the while we pour more of our time into their system, and have less to show for it. Eventually we are reduced to subsistence living, and indentured servitude.

The only benefit of inflation, is to those running the presses.
58   NuttBoxer   2022 Aug 1, 10:31am  

You'll probably know this, but I'm not the only one who thinks the centralized economy is about to go down. Also has some good insights into the physical vs paper disconnect in gold and silver:

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/only-start-bill-holter-warns-whole-world-banana-republic
59   NuttBoxer   2022 Sep 6, 9:47am  

Have seen multiple reports of Europe bailing out their energy companies. We all remember how well bail-outs work... Seems like their getting quite desperate to stay afloat. Doesn't look like the Asian markets will get first dibs on starting the crash this time around.
60   Shaman   2022 Sep 6, 10:10am  

Well Russia cut off the gas totally now so Europe is fucked unless Biden and the WEF/EU agree to drop sanctions.
61   zzyzzx   2022 Sep 6, 10:16am  

ad says

Social Security and VA disability payments went up 5.9% at the end of 2021 yet inflation was 7.1% in 2021.


Fixed:
Social Security and VA disability payments went up 5.9% at the end of 2021 yet inflation was 15% in 2021.

The government intentionally under reports inflation.
62   Bd6r   2022 Sep 6, 10:19am  

Shaman says

Well Russia cut off the gas totally now so Europe is fucked unless Biden and the WEF/EU agree to drop sanctions.

Sanctions just accelerate the inevitable. They were fucked when they listened to Greta and assortment of other idiots and when they let in half of the Maghreb.
63   AmericanKulak   2022 Sep 6, 10:24am  

The Euros love to show Energy Production,not Consumption. Makes things look better than they are.
64   RWSGFY   2022 Sep 6, 10:26am  

One month of "few months left" has passed.
65   Bd6r   2022 Sep 6, 10:35am  

RWSGFY says

One month of "few months left" has passed.

Something has to give. Current Time (TM) is eerily similar to what was going on right before USSR collapsed. Crazies coming out of woodwork, wild swings in politics, subdued-for-now inflation accelerating, etc.
66   latitude38   2022 Sep 6, 11:19am  

Last time , I checked the world’s 3rd largest economy Japan is still afloat with a Debt to GDP ratio of over 250%.

I believe the discussion about “ you can’t slaughter your own animals “ is in regards to a highly publicized Amish farmer who refused to follow USDA guidelines/regulations for selling organic meat across state lines . Anytime meat is sold ,especially across state lines you have violated a number of laws. Any homegrown livestock / or game meat slaughtered for personal use doesn’t violate any state / Fed law .That’s why when you go on the east side and see families raising chickens /goats/pigs a USDA agent isn’t knocking on their door . The limits on how much fish/crab were allowed to catch is for a number of reasons ,one of whichh is we’re not selling it for public consumption
67   latitude38   2022 Sep 6, 11:53am  

Regarding social security and inflation
COLA is determined by A COLA effective for December of the current year is equal to the percentage increase (if any) in the CPI-W from the average for the third quarter of the current year to the average for the third quarter of the last year in which a COLA became effective.
While I would agree those on SS should get more and there’s is other avenues they can seek out .The reason SS benefits are meaner is to keep other taxpayers from retiring early
Regarding rasing taxes on the” rich” is much like why they hired 80IRS agents to audit us not them -it’s not going to happen .But there’s really no need to raise taxes period .Collect taxes on off -shore tax havens that are nothing but money laundering for the super rich .Money made in US or even overseas should be taxed . Estimated amount is 5 trillion dollars .Tax that money at their tax rate adding penalties and listen to them scream like hogs before the slaughter.
68   NuttBoxer   2022 Sep 6, 4:08pm  

latitude38 says

Anytime meat is sold ,especially across state lines you have violated a number of laws.


Let's not confuse law with morality comrade.
69   Bd6r   2022 Sep 6, 4:15pm  

NuttBoxer says


Let's not confuse law with morality comrade.

I'd even say lets not confuse law with common sense. I buy meat from farm neighbors who butcher animals and sell them to people they know, and this meat tastes much better that one in supermarkets, is probably more healthy, definitely comes from animals who lived a much more happy life than ones who are kept in industrial Mooschwitzes yet both me and my neighbor are breaking idiotic laws.
70   Patrick   2022 Sep 6, 4:22pm  

Bd6r says


Current Time (TM) is eerily similar to what was going on right before USSR collapsed.


Yes, it very much reminds me of that time as well, from what I could see of it over here. I think I remember a tank firing into the Kremlin but I don't think it killed anyone.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-14589691

Hopefully we can also have a bloodless coup and then restore the Constitution, human rights, and legitimate elections.
71   Onvacation   2022 Sep 6, 4:58pm  

href="/post/1346762?start=48#comment-1875308">Patrick says

Hopefully we can also have a bloodless coup and then restore the Constitution, human rights, and legitimate elections.

We just had a bloodless coup. Everybody knows it.

We are all waiting anxiously, or obliviously, for the next thing to happen; Black Swan, October surprise, false flag, who knows?

If the Dems lose November it means the beginning of "Investigations". The dramatic questionings will be so entertaining. The leaked info will be questionable, but plausible. The political theatre will be wonderful!
72   Bd6r   2022 Sep 6, 5:36pm  

Onvacation says

If the Dems lose November it means the beginning of "Investigations". The dramatic questionings will be so entertaining. The leaked info will be questionable, but plausible. The political theatre will be wonderful!

The lack of any real consequences for stealing the election will be amazing!
73   latitude38   2022 Sep 6, 9:37pm  

Nuttboxer says that I’m confusing rule of law with morality . To some extent that’s why the USDA has had an ongoing battle with Amos Miller/ Miller Meats .This is nothing new in fact it goes back to ‘19 . Miller has refused to comply with the regulations and has numberous violations . I gather you seen to think it goes against free market principles ,it’s actually there to preserve free market. Of course as with all gvt agencies they tend to overeach .Tyler Durban points out misleading labels or outright lying to the consumer cage free , open range ,grass fed can lead to unfair competition .Where the meat came from ,their organic practice ,illegal dumping ,unsafe procedures , packaging so on .We imported nearly 2 Billion lbs of beef si far this year . The Reichleiter hasn’t t issued a blood and soil directive from the centralized economic policy board
74   mell   2022 Sep 7, 6:05am  

Bd6r says

RWSGFY says


One month of "few months left" has passed.

Something has to give. Current Time (TM) is eerily similar to what was going on right before USSR collapsed. Crazies coming out of woodwork, wild swings in politics, subdued-for-now inflation accelerating, etc.

I don't think it has to be big, it's a declining standard of living like the boiling frog. People may take it for a while, esp. since the deadbeats can get almost anything for free these days, and the standard of living hasn't declined enough since the Trump golden years. But agreed on rising tensions in general, Europe and US.
75   Bd6r   2022 Sep 7, 8:37am  

mell says

I don't think it has to be big, it's a declining standard of living like the boiling frog. People may take it for a while, esp. since the deadbeats can get almost anything for free these days, and the standard of living hasn't declined enough since the Trump golden years.

May be Venezuela is a better analogy. A few decades ago they were well-off, but now not so much. Decline of standards was slow initially but then really quick.
76   NuttBoxer   2022 Sep 7, 1:01pm  

latitude38 says

it’s actually there to preserve free market. Of course as with all gvt agencies they tend to overeach .Tyler Durban points out misleading labels or outright lying to the consumer cage free , open range ,grass fed can lead to unfair competition .Where the meat came from ,their organic practice ,illegal dumping ,unsafe procedures , packaging so on .


Regulation of any kind is literally the antithesis of free market. But that wasn't my point at all. Only commies, fascists, and religious fanatics insist on law above right and wrong.

Funny you bring up mis-labeling. If you read into the case more you'd find the FDA sprays all meat with non-organic chemicals, and it's never labeled anywhere. I'm actually looking for a new source of local meat because my current CSA will only guarantee no FDA if I buy whole animal.
77   NuttBoxer   2022 Sep 7, 1:05pm  

mell says

I don't think it has to be big, it's a declining standard of living like the boiling frog. People may take it for a while, esp. since the deadbeats can get almost anything for free these days, and the standard of living hasn't declined enough since the Trump golden years. But agreed on rising tensions in general, Europe and US.


It has been slow. Decline started in 1913, over a hundred years ago. Why has it dragged out longer? We print the reserve currency. That's the only reason. '08 started back in the early 2000's. Regardless of how slow it starts, the end is always quick and for many, unexpected. Given the amount of leverage we've created with this one, implosion will be spectacular.

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