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Two Years is Generous


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2022 Jul 22, 4:18pm   9,850 views  88 comments

by NuttBoxer   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

I think we have months left. Lots have been in our place before, and denied history like many will now. But the arrogance of thinking somehow we're special, that the rules don't apply to us will end bitterly. Prepare while you still can.

"Today the US government’s debt to GDP ratio is about 120% and its budget deficit is forecast to be about 7% of GDP this year A 300 basis point [interest rate] hike should increase the budget deficit to about 11% of GDP. Since 1991, all 18 other governments with deficits exceeding 11% of GDP and debt to GDP ratios exceeding 110% defaulted within two year. Thus, the Fed could soon be trapped: raising rates could trigger default and not raising them could leave inflation unchecked. Similar dilemmas in other countries have often caused extreme crises, e.g., Argentina Brazil, and Venezela; the US may soon join the club.

- Luke Gromen in FFTT Tree Rings, 15 July 2022, quoting Hirschman Capital Year-End 2021 Letter.

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1   AmericanKulak   2022 Jul 22, 4:21pm  

"Workers built the Palaces in Spain and America. We can do so again." - Durruti

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mAajfSJ71Yc
2   Bd6r   2022 Jul 22, 4:26pm  

Interesting topic - in 2017 I thought all will be over in 3-4 years. Last years here have been eerily similar to 1986-1991 which were years preceding collapse of the USSR, which I lived through.

Perhaps we will survive into next spring, may be a year. Then again, collapse starts slowly and then goes very fast.

Tanned neck neighbors near our countryside property have turned intensively pessimistic and talk about months to a year collapse time.
3   AmericanKulak   2022 Jul 22, 4:28pm  

Agreed. In 2017 I thought wokie was done for. Now it is at critical mass (I hope), with mandated pronouns in every one of the 100 largest companies, to say nothing of Gov Agencies right down to the Army and Navy.

Bd6r says


Perhaps we will survive into next spring, may be a year. Then again, collapse starts slowly and then goes very fast.


Yes. It's always a slide until the bottom drops out.

Every month, another huge 20lb bag of rice. If I don't use it and things get markedly better, one can always donate it.
4   Bd6r   2022 Jul 22, 4:32pm  

AmericanKulak says

Every month, another huge 20lb bag of rice. If I don't use it and things get markedly better, one can always donate it.

We bought a rather large farm. A few ponds with fish, hogs, deer, and we stocked fertilizer for gardening. And of course AMMO! Have to convince missus that we need another 3-4 guns.
5   mell   2022 Jul 22, 5:57pm  

Don't think so. Yes things will get worse, but all fiat currencies are relative to each other and sonis the debt.There will be a big debt jubilee at some point and a reset. A lot will also depend on the upcoming elections and if land steal will continue to be allowed. We have plenty of energy and agricultural reserves to tap, it's just a matter of telling the leftoids to fuck off with their pronouns and climate change, I mean manbearpig. Yes it will get bad, but there is no reason for a total collapse, esp. not in the US.
6   GNL   2022 Jul 22, 6:22pm  

Isn't Debt to GDP more like 130-140% now. What percent of 22,000,000,000,000 is 30,000,000,000,000?
7   Blue   2022 Jul 22, 6:23pm  

Never ending barrow for deficit and eventual growing interest payments reaching the size of the GDP is going to snowball faster and disconnect the word. The irresponsible mob ruining the country. Look at the current administration no one has private industry experience and has no idea how the things work. No wonder why they have been creating massive money out of thin air and robbing middle and poor classes. The real threat to this country comes from inside.
9   Bd6r   2022 Jul 22, 8:09pm  

mell says

There will be a big debt jubilee at some point and a reset

One way how to have debt jubilee is inflation. In any case, it punishes savers at expense of borrowers.mell says

We have plenty of energy and agricultural reserves to tap, it's just a matter of telling the leftoids to fuck off with their pronouns and climate change, I mean manbearpig.

That may be the reason why this plays out slower here than is US of SR. I'd be very happy if you turn out to be right.
10   NuttBoxer   2022 Jul 23, 12:24pm  

mell says

There will be a big debt jubilee at some point and a reset.


Another direction things could go. But why would I let you out of your debt to me when I could enslave you instead?

mell says

We have plenty of energy and agricultural reserves to tap, it's just a matter of telling the leftoids to fuck off with their pronouns and climate change


Those are all under government control. You can't even slaughter your own animals without getting sued by the FDA. Do you plan to go begging for your rations and can of gas from Big Brother? Or maybe they'll just give up all their power without a fight?
11   Bd6r   2022 Jul 23, 12:58pm  

NuttBoxer says

Those are all under government control. You can't even slaughter your own animals without getting sued by the FDA.

Just don't let them know. Most of my neighbors do stuff that is illegal from gubbermint viewpoint but perfectly reasonable from my (and probably also your) viewpoint. No one will rat out anyone else - if they do, they will be excommunicated from society.
12   just_passing_through   2022 Jul 23, 1:23pm  

NuttBoxer says

You can't even slaughter your own animals without getting sued by the FDA


Please confirm that this (terrible enough) is the case only when for sale -> not for your own personal consumption.

I couldn't imagine that given I can say, go kill a deer and slaughter that for eating.

Then again I could imagine some arcane regulation around health codes or some shit.
13   just_passing_through   2022 Jul 23, 1:25pm  

Bd6r says

We bought a rather large farm. A few ponds with fish, hogs, deer, and we stocked fertilizer for gardening. And of course AMMO! Have to convince missus that we need another 3-4 guns.


If you're considering livestock sheep give you 3-4x the meat density per acre vs. cattle. Also about 3-4x the profit per acre if you sell it.

I've never eaten it but am considering trying to see if I could develop a taste for it just-in-case.
14   AmericanKulak   2022 Jul 23, 1:37pm  

Chickens and Dairy Goats. You get Cheese, Eggs, and Meat, along with a Troy Bilt that will eventually take down the densest brush.
15   just_passing_through   2022 Jul 23, 1:49pm  

Def chickens. Goats always butt me in the nads.

In a cannibal anarchy situation goats are a must have though.
16   richwicks   2022 Jul 23, 2:05pm  

just_passing_through says

I've never eaten it but am considering trying to see if I could develop a taste for it just-in-case.


Ever had lamb? It's often really mutton. I have a personal moral distaste of eating lamb, or veal for that matter. It's like eating a puppy, but if you don't, you'll get an idea of the flavor. It's a bit gamey. If you know a farmer that raises and "processes" sheep, you can ask for a cut as well.
17   Eman   2022 Jul 23, 3:01pm  

I’ve been hearing about this topic since the Global Financial Crisis. 14 years later and here we are. Another round of doom and gloom

A retiree at the Peet’s coffee store told me his neighbor said America would collapse soon and sold his house in the Bay Area in 1989 to prepare for it. 33 years later……it keeps going and going and going.
18   GNL   2022 Jul 23, 3:35pm  

Eman says

I’ve been hearing about this topic since the Global Financial Crisis. 14 years later and here we are. Another round of doom and gloom

A retiree at the Peet’s coffee store told me his neighbor said America would collapse soon and sold his house in the Bay Area in 1989 to prepare for it. 33 years later……it keeps going and going and going.

What was your prediction in 2008?
19   RC2006   2022 Jul 23, 3:51pm  

Hope for the best and prepare for the worse.

Maybe it's just the lens we are looking through. Our parents had peak cold war and crazy 60s I bet a lot thought that was the end.

I think if things keep going the way they are it will open the door for a rebellion in the entire west and that is what the powers that be are trying to rout.
20   richwicks   2022 Jul 23, 4:01pm  

RC2006 says


Maybe it's just the lens we are looking through. Our parents had peak cold war and crazy 60s I bet a lot thought that was the end.


It WAS the end. Look up what a new car cost in 1965 versus 1975, and a 1975's car was a piece of shit. Hows the United Ladies Garment Worker's Union doing today?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Lg4gGk53iY

Many people's lives were destroyed then, mostly blue collar workers. This time around, I think it's going to be "us", the eggheads. How much respect do you have for doctors, lawyers, engineers, and financial executives? It will be a lot lower in 5 years is my expectation.

I have some saving grace, as an engineer, my job is to support manufacturing and blue collar workers. I'm still an egghead, but I know that is where my future lies. I'd really like to work on robotic farm machinery. I'm well aware of the hand that feeds me, it's not another egghead. My boss is just another middle man, a leech really.
21   richwicks   2022 Jul 23, 4:07pm  

RC2006 says

I think if things keep going the way they are it will open the door for a rebellion in the entire west and that is what the powers that be are trying to rout.


Wait until the 99% realize all they need to do is kill less than 1% to end wars, end fraud, restore the judicial system, and restore society.

It's not the rich that need to be targeted really, it's the rich and corrupt, the criminal elite, which is much of the "elite", but not all of it.
22   NuttBoxer   2022 Jul 23, 5:41pm  

just_passing_through says

Please confirm that this (terrible enough) is the case only when for sale -> not for your own personal consumption.


Yes, it's only in regard to sales, but the enforcement reaches all the way to the small time farmer, and actually specifically targets that group. If we are to be free of government control, we must be free to run our own economies.
23   NuttBoxer   2022 Jul 23, 5:44pm  

Eman says

33 years later……it keeps going and going and going.


Correct. Inflation keeps going, and going, and going.

Moral decay keeps going, and going, and going.

Government control keeps growing, and growing, and growing.

If your retiree moved to the country, started growing produce, and raising animals, stocking guns and ammo, rigging his property for off-grid, etc, he is in a GREAT place right now, because he doesn't give a shit about the economy anymore.

The road to freedom is always worth traveling, the sooner, the better.
24   AmericanKulak   2022 Jul 23, 6:19pm  

richwicks says


Wait until the 99% realize all they need to do is kill less than 1% to end wars, end fraud, restore the judicial system, and restore society.

Won't happen. 15-20% of the pop is simply insane and hate Western Civ because they hate themselves and externalize that unto society.

That is why mild Patriarchy is needed, and why societies without it don't last more than 2-3 generations before they break down.

Every family had a crazy Aunt Kathy who was in the funny farm or permanently was 'under the care' (and control) of first her own parents and then Uncle (her brother) and his wife, living up in the attic bedroom. By about age 25 the family realized she wasn't getting married or couldn't be trusted to go on dates because she was a slore.

These days, the crazy Aunt Kathys are roaming free with a tenure/union protected Ed/Gov job, or collecting some alimony and/or government benefits for their Fibro Myass Gia.





Aunt Kathy's male equivalent is Uncle Kevin, who stayed in the attic with porno mags and his coin/baseball card collection, today video games and pot and porn.
25   Bd6r   2022 Jul 23, 7:15pm  

just_passing_through says


If you're considering livestock sheep give you 3-4x the meat density per acre vs. cattle. Also about 3-4x the profit per acre if you sell it.

Too much involvement at this point, I have to be in Houston Mon to Sat. We lease out some of the land to cattle ranchers.
26   Bd6r   2022 Jul 23, 7:17pm  

NuttBoxer says

Eman says


33 years later……it keeps going and going and going.


Correct. Inflation keeps going, and going, and going.

Moral decay keeps going, and going, and going.

Government control keeps growing, and growing, and growing.

If your retiree moved to the country, started growing produce, and raising animals, stocking guns and ammo, rigging his property for off-grid, etc, he is in a GREAT place right now, because he doesn't give a shit about the economy anymore.

The road to freedom is always worth traveling, the sooner, the better.

Again, similar to USSR. Collapsed much later than everyone thought and at point when few expected.
27   just_passing_through   2022 Jul 23, 7:40pm  

Bd6r says

We lease out some of the land to cattle ranchers.


Alan Alda used to run his cattle through 25 acres in the Sierra my parents owned when I was a kid. Used to camp up there and wake up to Bulls hollering while they got them some cows.
28   Bd6r   2022 Jul 23, 7:46pm  

just_passing_through says


Alan Alda used to run his cattle through 25 acres in the Sierra my parents owned when I was a kid. Used to camp up there and wake up to Bulls hollering while they got them some cows.

We feed one of cows (appropriately nicknamed Kamala) watermelon rinds and corn cobs. She waits at house fence around every meal to get her treats. Overall they run about 40 cows/bulls on our land.
29   Eman   2022 Jul 23, 8:43pm  

WineHorror1 says

What was your prediction in 2008?

I didn’t have any predictions for 2008. In hindsight, I learned from a research by Piper Sandler that the economy was due for a big correction, and it did. They predicted it. True or not, I have no way to verify. However, they predict the next peak in the economy is 2030-2031 followed by a big recession. Time will tell.

All I know is that my research at the time suggested real estate was on fire sale in 2009-2012 so I loaded up the boat on it, and it has allowed me a life I could only dream. I don’t have to answer to anyone now, and I work 1-2 hours each day for myself on average.
30   Eman   2022 Jul 23, 8:54pm  

NuttBoxer says

Eman says


33 years later……it keeps going and going and going.


Correct. Inflation keeps going, and going, and going.

Moral decay keeps going, and going, and going.

Government control keeps growing, and growing, and growing.

If your retiree moved to the country, started growing produce, and raising animals, stocking guns and ammo, rigging his property for off-grid, etc, he is in a GREAT place right now, because he doesn't give a shit about the economy anymore.

The road to freedom is always worth traveling, the sooner, the better.

I’m not smart enough to know if inflation will keep on going. Research by Piper Sandler suggests 10 year US treasury has peaked at 3.5% this year and will drop lower. Their year end prediction is 2.25-2.5%. How did they come up with this prediction? I have no clue. They have been right so many times so I take their prediction at face value. Their prediction suggests inflation will cool off. Will it happen? Time will tell.

Also, they called the stock market has bottomed. It’s time to accumulate and ride it back up. They have a year end price target (PT) of 4,775 for the S&P 500. They also suggest what to overweight and what to underweight. Will it happen? Time will tell.

All I know is that in the midst of the March 2020 stock market crash, they were on CNBC predicting a year end PT of 3,600 when SPX was trading around 2,300-2,400 at the time. SPX ended the year at 3,756. Then they predicted 2021 year end PT of 4,600 for SPX. They were right on too. Let’s see if they will be right again.

Their research is sold to big institutions. I happen to know the right person and get a copy of it on a weekly basis. 🙏
31   NuttBoxer   2022 Jul 24, 3:34pm  

Bd6r says

Again, similar to USSR. Collapsed much later than everyone thought and at point when few expected.


Except it didn't. It was a planned transition. All the old guys got cushy jobs in the new government, nothing really changed.
32   Bd6r   2022 Jul 24, 3:37pm  

NuttBoxer says

Except it didn't. It was a planned transition. All the old guys got cushy jobs in the new government, nothing really changed.

Perhaps this is why it was unexpected for most. And perhaps we will have controlled demolition here as well.
33   NuttBoxer   2022 Jul 24, 3:41pm  

Eman says

I’m not smart enough to know if inflation will keep on going.


That's the trick of central bankers, confusing you with all their bullshit so they can keep robbing you. Forget all their jargon and lies, and just look at every historical example of where fiat currencies have gone, and where central bank run economies have gone. Their only weapons are bullshit, and inflation.

Eman says

All I know is that in the midst of the March 2020 stock market crash, they were on CNBC predicting a year end PT of 3,600


Have you read Dykstra's story? It's the same as theirs. During inflation, everything goes up, because the fiat keeps losing value. I was watching The Seven Faces of Dr Lao the other night. In one scene they're selling peanuts for a penny, and popcorn is free. Were peanuts and corn more plentiful back in the Old West? Were they easier to farm? The answer to both is no. Money was just worth more back then, because it was real.

If you keep thinking wealth is calculated by zeros on paper, rather than ease and quality of life, you will continue to be tired, sick, indebted, and unhappy.
34   Bd6r   2022 Jul 24, 4:00pm  

NuttBoxer says

Except it didn't. It was a planned transition. All the old guys got cushy jobs in the new government, nothing really changed.

This is a very interesting topic. I might write a little about it here. I wonder if there are analogies with what will happen here.
35   Hircus   2022 Jul 25, 8:43am  

just_passing_through says


Bd6r says

I've never eaten it but am considering trying to see if I could develop a taste for it just-in-case.


I've tried mutton (its ok, not great like cow) but I've heard sheeps milk is the real star. I heard its incredibly nutritious and packed with calories, and tastes good. I've never noticed it for sale at a store. I've seen goat milk but I dont really like the taste, although if it's all I had I could see maybe getting used to it.

I stumbled upon some youtube channel of a dude who lives like a nomad with a small flock of sheep - he has a cart he tows around with his shit and a bed, and the sheep eat grass from whatever field he's in for the day, and they give him milk of which he drinks and makes cheese / butter from. He also uses the wool to make clothes. He's kinda an extreme prepper / hippie but calls himself a guerilla grazer. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U54HRmglYEA
36   NuttBoxer   2022 Jul 25, 9:43am  

lamb is by far the best ground meat you can have, super flavorful. Goat milk can take a little time to get used to. But my daughters all drink it, and we actually prefer it to cow milk.
37   Patrick   2022 Jul 25, 10:00am  

richwicks says

It's not the rich that need to be targeted really, it's the rich and corrupt, the criminal elite, which is much of the "elite", but not all of it.


Yes, it's the super-psychopaths with power who are causing all the problems, like Fauci, Collins, Bourla, Gates, Soros, and Klaus Schwab.
38   Patrick   2022 Jul 25, 10:01am  

NuttBoxer says

Goat milk can take a little time to get used to.


I bought some once and just could not finish it. But then, de gustibus non disputandum est.
39   Bd6r   2022 Jul 25, 11:19am  

NuttBoxer says

Goat milk can take a little time to get used to.

If goat is kept very clean, milk taste is much better, almost none of specific goat taste.
40   RWSGFY   2022 Jul 25, 11:49am  

NuttBoxer says

I think we have months left.


Let's "remember this twit" and check back at 6 and 12 months.

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