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The invasion of Ukraine shows that Russia rejects the norms of civilization. The only way to overcome it is with superior weaponry.

Rich, sedentary civilizations have always been vulnerable. Plato wrote that the gods destroyed Atlantis because it had grown wealthy and debauched. The more a civilization produces, the more alluring a target it becomes: Bronze Age kingdoms fell to the sea peoples; Germanic barbarians took apart the Roman Empire; the Mongols conquered China’s empires. In the Islamic world the succession of Umayyads, Abbasids, Mamluks and Ghaznavids reflected Ibn Khaldun’s cyclical theory of history—bloated sedentary economies get dismantled and consumed by predatory barbarians.

This cycle was broken by the development of firearms. Technological advance became an instrument for successful conquest. The Vikings left North America because of the ferocity of the natives, but the next wave of invaders conquered the Indians with ease. The difference? Guns.

No zealot or rogue king selling his followers on the certainty of victory in war can stand against superior technology. When the Mahdi tried to build an Islamic state in Sudan in the late 19th century, the machine guns of Maj. Gen. Horatio Herbert Kitchener ensured British victory at the Battle of Omdurman. A similar fate befell rebels in Matabeleland in 1896-97 in modern-day Zimbabwe. The leaders of the 1899 Boxer Rebellion in China promised their followers invulnerability against the bullets of foreign devils. This turned out to be an exaggeration.

For much of recent history, technological progress was the only route to success for a nation. Even the Soviet Union understood. The Vietnam War, the Iranian revolution and Sept. 11 each turned the wheel again. The barbarians had the advantage because their adversary had grown flabby and satisfied. It was impossible to fight Osama bin Laden the way Kitchener fought the Mahdi’s followers, not because al Qaeda had advanced weapons, but because a civilized nation couldn’t fight an uncivilized war.

The only war a modern, prosperous, open society is willing to fight is a comfortable one. This has been noticed by the world’s rogue dictators. Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine is a challenge to the prevailing international order, presided over by a sedentary, prosperous U.S. hegemon. Unless this challenge is met by superior technology, it will likely succeed.
A new arms race is the only option for the West. The Russian offensive flounders in the face of superior firepower. On battlefields where there are no modern weapons, the barbarian Russian army, with its tactics of cannon fodder and indiscriminate shelling, slowly prevails. Where the Ukrainian defenders have been equipped with Western artillery, Russia’s stockpiles explode into fireworks and its fodder troops are burnt like chaff.

A world without a war is only a dream. When the strong and just refuse to fight with the weapons they have, thugs and bullies can do what they want. The West must build precision weapons that can take out Russia’s nuclear silos—and let Mr. Putin know that they aren’t afraid to use them. Develop drones that can hunt and kill terrorists. An open society can’t dictate to rogue states how to live. But it should be able to prevent aggression like the invasion of Ukraine.