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From what I could decipher from the 60 Minute interview with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, the Fed will lower rates when the CPI's and PCE's 6 month average for annual inflation are below 3%.
Feds cut rates a half a point.
The housing collapse happens by the end of Q2 2025.
Homeloaners are expecting millions to start bidding on houses and it's not going to happen. Those who are able and willing to buy are saying "Ah... they Fed will cut rates MOAR next year, and what's the hurry with all the inventory piling on?"
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"Historically, the US central bank has avoided surprising markets – say, by going 75bp when it is not priced in," Barclays economists led by Jonathan Millar said in a note to clients published Friday.
"But next week, we feel, is likely to be an exception."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-puts-pressure-on-powell-what-to-know-this-week-162615319.html