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Housing Inventory May 23rd Update: Inventory UP 8.2% Week-over-week.
2022 May 23, 7:40am 682 views 12 comments
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11
richwicks
2022 May 26, 6:01pm
richwicks
2022 May 26, 6:01pm
HunterTits says
There's a double edge sword to Depression 2.0
1) real estate is a liability, not an asset.
2) no jobs.
Booger says
India and China I think will be up and coming, and will replace Europe and the United States. South America might be OK and might even flourish.
How bad this gets is how many people were stupid enough to have non fixed rates debt. Anybody on an ARM mortgage - they're fucked and remember, Greenspan told EVERYBODY to get on an adjustable rate mortgage, 15-20 years ago.
My theory is that the financial markets are designed to cause maximum pain to people that listen to these sociopaths.
richwicks saysIt's Depression 2.0
Not for me. I don't own and never have. Hope the homeowners take a fucking bath, actually.
There's a double edge sword to Depression 2.0
1) real estate is a liability, not an asset.
2) no jobs.
Booger says
I'm thinking that if there is anyone that is going to get hit hard, it's factory workers in China.
India and China I think will be up and coming, and will replace Europe and the United States. South America might be OK and might even flourish.
How bad this gets is how many people were stupid enough to have non fixed rates debt. Anybody on an ARM mortgage - they're fucked and remember, Greenspan told EVERYBODY to get on an adjustable rate mortgage, 15-20 years ago.
My theory is that the financial markets are designed to cause maximum pain to people that listen to these sociopaths.
12
HeadSet
2022 May 26, 6:20pm
HeadSet
2022 May 26, 6:20pm
richwicks says
Good advice at the time, as an adjustable rate mortgage taken out 20 years ago would have had downward rate adjustments until now.
Greenspan told EVERYBODY to get on an adjustable rate mortgage, 15-20 years ago.
Good advice at the time, as an adjustable rate mortgage taken out 20 years ago would have had downward rate adjustments until now.
Inventory usually declines in the winter, and then increases in the spring. Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 43% since then.
Altos Home InventoryClick on graph for larger image in graph gallery.
This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of May 20th, inventory was at 344 thousand (7-day average), compared to 318 thousand the prior week. Inventory was up 8.2% from the previous week.
Inventory is still very low. Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is up 6.4% from 324 thousand, however compared to the same week in 2020, and inventory is down 52.5% from 724 thousand. Compared to 3 years ago, inventory is down 63.3% from 938 thousand.
Here are the inventory milestones I’m watching for with the Altos data:
1. The seasonal bottom (happened on March 4th for Altos) ✅
2. Inventory up year-over-year (happened on May 13th for Altos) ✅
3. Inventory up compared to two years ago (currently down 52.5% according to Altos)
4. Inventory up compared to 2019 (currently down 63.3%).
Altos Home Inventory
Here is a graph of the inventory change year-over-year and vs two years ago (milestone 3 above).
The blue line is the year-over-year data, and the red line is compared to two years ago.
Inventory is now up year-over-year. Two years ago (in 2020) inventory was declining all year, so the two-year comparison will get easier all year.
Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/05/housing-inventory-may-23rd-update.html