patrick.net

September 21, 2022 speech Q&A:

Existing home sales have fallen for seven months straight, mortgage are the highest since 2008, yet mortgage demand increased and housing prices are still elevated. You mentioned plans to reset the market. Could you elaborate on what you mean, and what you think it will take to get there?

>> CHAIRMAN POWELL: When I say reset, I’m not looking at a particular specific set of data or anything. What I’m really saying is that we’ve had a time of a red hot housing market all over the country where famously houses were selling to the first buyer at 10% above the ask before even seeing the house, that kind of thing.

So, there was a big imbalance between supply and demand. Housing prices were going up at an unsustainablely fast level. The deceleration should help bring prices more closely in line with rents and other housing market fundamentals. And that’s a good thing. For the longer term, what we need is supply and demand to get better aligned so housing prices go up reasonably and people can afford houses again.

In the housing market, we have to go through a correction to get back to that place. There are also longer-run issues with the housing market. It’s difficult to find lots now close enough to cities and things like that, so builders are having a hard time getting zoning in lots, and workers and materials. From a business cycle standpoint, this difficult correction should put the housing market back into better balance.

https://macenews.com/transcript-fed-chair-powells-post-fomc-qa/

The only way the Fed can make house prices go down is by causing a recession with mass layoffs. Raising the interest rates just slows sales a little as homeowners will just sit in their existing homes with 3% mortgage rates rather then buy a new house and take on a 6%+ loan.

Only mass layoffs forcing homeowners to sell is going to move the needle. Is that really what the fed wants?

ad says

Veteran Affairs mortgages are assumable, and they can be assumed by non-veteran homebuyers who qualify for the loan.

I believe this to be true. My buddy has bought I think 4 homes VA loan wise. He was able to offload them very easily. One of them to a couple 3 blocks away from me. I don't know if it was assumed or not though. Might be out in Montana again in October and ask him.

It is the best perk of being military. Fuck the free college. As long as you have income it's zero down minus closing costs. It was a slam dunk when we had those clients when I was in RE. Not huge money, but he's made at least $150-200k buying and selling his primary homes (tax free). He's a bachelor, so it's easy for him to up and move and works remotely. Not a bad life. Probably lonely though. He's not super social.

WookieMan says

Not huge money, but he's made at least $150-200k buying and selling his primary homes (tax free).

Let's see him do that in a rising interest rate environment. LMAO, everyone is a genius in a dropping interest rate environment. Comical.

https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/xkpcx2/listing_agent_just_called_to_tell_me_that_our/

Listing Agent Just Called to Tell Me that Our Offer is Embarrassingly Low

Resubmit next week, 10k less, and add a line at the end stating all rejections must be signed as proof the sellers were made aware of it. Include a CMA showing the price of a 2br.

pudil says

The only way the Fed can make house prices go down is by causing a recession with mass layoffs. Raising the interest rates just slows sales a little as homeowners will just sit in their existing homes with 3% mortgage rates rather then buy a new house and take on a 6%+ loan.

It will correct as the boomers start to die off. They were the largest demographic in the United States until recently. The housing market will move to glut over time. We would have already gone to this if it wasn't for the massive illegal imigration.

https://www.npr.org/2022/09/21/1124272098/home-prices-see-biggest-drop-in-9-years-thanks-to-higher-mortgage-rates

Home prices see biggest drop in 9 years, thanks to higher mortgage rates

Eman says

VA is for veterans right? Unless you’re selling from one veteran to the next, I’m not sure VA would want to assume the loan to someone who is not a veteran, but it’s only my guess.

The VA loan can be assumed by anyone with income qualifications. It is designed to help a veteran sell his house when he relocates. However, VA loan limits may be too low for the California market you guys play in.

WookieMan says

My buddy has bought I think 4 homes VA loan wise.

I presume he assumed loans from veteran sellers, which anyone can do. However, when you do, that takes away the selling veteran's eligibility for another VA loan until that loan is paid off. A veteran can use his eligibility for only have one VA loan at a time (with rare exceptions, like two very low value loans). If a veteran assumes another veteran's VA loan, the buyer can substitute his VA eligibility. That would be a bargaining chip, and works best if the loan is bellow current rates. I myself have assumed VA loans but did not use my own eligibility.

HeadSet says

The VA loan can be assumed by anyone with income qualifications. It is designed to help a veteran sell his house when he relocates. However, VA loan limits may be too low for the California market you guys play in.

Believe they adjust based on location like FHA. Either way you could still assume it and find a lender okay being a 2nd lien. Hard, but not impossible.

If you HAVE to get something, there's a way. The home I'm sitting in was purchased with no means of being able to buy it. I found a way after having the all cash offer accepted. Margin loan from the MIL that we paid the interest on for about 18 months $220/mo. Refi'd and we paid her back. Kind of wish we kept it going and paid off principle as we had the cash. Monthly nut PITI was maybe $500. Needed to pay off bills though from updates/repairs otherwise we'd have been paying 22% interest on CC's for work done. $1,200/mo still ain't bad all in for my house with an in ground pool. Fenced yard. Wife has a green thumb and I keep the lawn looking good. People ask to buy our home out of no where.

HeadSet says

I presume he assumed loans from veteran sellers

He could own 2 at a time. Not sure if the rules have changed. Rent one out and live in the other (technically). Both have to be primary at first for purchase and then move to the next. He just bought a house out in Montana (he lives there) that I crashed a week or so ago. He's down to one house now. But yeah, for a middle class bachelor he's done decent on housing tax free cap gains.

zzyzzx says

Resubmit next week, 10k less, and add a line at the end stating all rejections must be signed as proof the sellers were made aware of it.

It's a nice thought, but the whole point of being a realtor is to block all direct communication between buyer and seller. That's so that the realtor can "lose" bids that don't benefit him to the maximum amount personally.

Every buyer should always send a copy of his bid to the owners directly, though I'm sure buyer's agents have rules against that as well.

Added image to original post to make it easier to see in thread lists.

Patrick says

the whole point of being a realtor

Ahem, bro, it's ®ealtor, - got it?

https://www.realestateconsulting.com/speedy-escape-from-housing-market-slump-unlikely/

And that is what the $600,000 home is now worth.

https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/xl4wq4/update_watched_a_property_bread_crumb_price_drops/

‘The housing market may have to go through a correction’: Mortgage rates hit 6.29%, Freddie Mac says

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/c9971b8a-06fe-307a-8997-1c38e2e3fd90/%E2%80%98the-housing-market-may-have.html

Anyone that has to sell at inflated prices because they bought their home recently, then I hope they have an assumable mortgage at a rate less than 4%.

Than it may not be painful for them. But how much pain is this housing crash really going to be ?

Most people who will sell likely have no to very little of a mortgage balance or they still have a significant amount of equity even with a 30% drop in prices from early 2022 peak.

It is not as if subprime mortgages are a risk especially relative to 2007.

.

DJIA down almost 3 percent today In keeping with the alleged Shemitah? Looks like the Hummer fleet is stripping fast.

DJIA bumped back up to 2 percent down. Back to about April 2020 levels minus the purchasing losses of inflation (20 percent?) since then?

If we get 50 percent inflation next year, which is quite possible, then purchasing power is declining rapidly, no matter what the ostensible bolus.

Ceffer says

DJIA down almost 3 percent today

Ceffer says

DJIA bumped back up to 2 percent down.

Then down for the day at -1.6%.

Looks like the PPT was busy late in the day.

S&P 500 is about 9% above February 2020 levels. In real or inflation-adjusted terms, it is below February 2020 levels.

So the Fed got what it wanted as far as COVID-pandemic asset gains being wiped out.

Housing naturally takes longer to respond but I would not be surprised if it drops to mid 2021 levels within the next 2 years.

.

BayArea says

Patrick says

zzyzzx says

Looks like money laundering.

Redfin doesn’t show that sale price. Maybe just a print error?

Error with "7". house wasn't listed for sale. Last sold for 307,000 1.5 year ago.