patrick.net

Patrick says

When all those houses go on the market, prices will plummet,

...but the Housing Experts of PatNet believe otherwise!

MolotovCocktail says

"...but the Housing Experts of PatNet believe otherwise!"

The housing experts are wrong because they ignore the root cause of the
problem - illegal immigrants.
What happens to housing prices when all these millions are kicked out?

The_Deplorable says

The housing experts are wrong because they ignore the root cause of the
problem - illegal immigrants.
What happens to housing prices when all these millions are kicked out?

The root cause is demographics. The immigrants is part of the government's desperate attempts to prop housing up. Canada and Europe are doing the same thing.

They failed.

GNL says

...were to happen, banks would simply become the nation's landlords, I assume. No more need for lending (for mortgages anyway). Simply set rents as high as f'ing possible and keep everyone rent poor.

Banks hate being landlords, hiring landscapers, paying property taxes, etc. The rest only want them if there's ever-increasing rents on the horizon and the carry costs are low.

Boomers will pass and Millies will dump their property, not wanting to manage it from several states away, nor taking a pay cut and having to find a decent job in states known for lower wages (hence why they retired there, double edged sword).

We had a taste of this with COVID, Northeasterners went to FL, Midwesterners to Tampa, Californians in Texas esp. Austin and San Antonio. After COVID, they got called back at least partially full time and you bet their ass they looked into getting local employment, but there were slimmer pickings than SFBA or NYC Metro, and what they found paid WAY less. Which is a big reason for those dropping markets, both rent and house price.

People ALWAYS brag about where they chose to retire as being the best. But the low cost of living is almost always because it's non-competitive in the jobs and wages department for NON-retirees

MolotovCocktail says

"The immigrants is part of the government's desperate attempts to prop housing up."

The government, ICE, is deporting the illegals.

MolotovCocktail says

The root cause is demographics. The immigrants is part of the government's desperate attempts to prop housing up. Canada and Europe are doing the same thing.

They failed.

Are there enough immigrants buying Canada's expensive housing (without overcrowding them and without government assistance) ?

The_Deplorable says

The government, ICE, is deporting the illegals.

Not enough and not fast enough. Still, some markets will be effected.

AD says

Are there enough immigrants buying Canada's expensive housing (without overcrowding them and without government assistance) ?

They are the ones who drove those expensive prices. Canada has massive amounts if immigration relative to their overall population for about 15 years. To bail out their pension and health care system, mostly.

MolotovCocktail says

"Not enough and not fast enough. Still, some markets will be effected."

In 2025 ICE kicked out close to 2.5 million illegals... My take is that that is fast enough...

The_Deplorable says

MolotovCocktail says

"Not enough and not fast enough. Still, some markets will be effected."

In 2025 ICE kicked out close to 2.5 million illegals... My take is that that is fast enough...

So they claim. And no. Impressive as that might be, not enough.

Estimate by Pew in 2023 was 14 million. No way. More like triple that amount, at least.

This townhome unit sold a couple of days ago for about 18% below its 2023 purchase price of $305,000.

It could have reasonably sold for $325,000 in 2022 when the 30 yr mortgage rate was below 4%.

I noticed sales picking up with the 30 yr conventional mortgage rate at no more than 6% and prices about 20% below 2022 all-time-high levels.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1820-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/246091125_zpid/