patrick.net

https://rudy.substack.com/p/the-models-are-wrong

BayArea says

House should be bulldozed

Call me crazy, but that lot has SB-9 potential.

There will be blood...?

EBGuy says

There will be blood...?

Don't look down...

I've got a few saved searches with Redskin and Illow for which I receive new listings e-mails. I haven't done one for Austin, but for Boise, my Inbox is flooded with e-mails, just about all with price reductions. And folks who purchased in the last several years are still trying to harvest 20% annual price increases, as if that is normal. A quirk of sales data reporting for Idaho is that the sold price cannot be made public. For that, you need access to the MLS, so a realtor can tell you.

Below is classic. If I've done the math correctly, these dwebes were fishing for an average 30% annual increase over the January 2020 $475,900 listing price, as if by magic. Of course, they could have overbid, but even so. Them days are long behind you now.

UPDATE

After failing to attract any buyers at the April 2022 price of $839,900, after several rounds of dropping the price, it now is offered at $679,900, a 20% drop. Even so, at that price, it's about a 17% annual increase off of listing price in the short two and one half years they have owned it.

Do I hear $579,900?

Jul 7, 2022
Date
Price Changed
IMLS #98839246
*
Price
Jun 21, 2022
Date
Price Changed
IMLS #98839246
*
Price
Jun 14, 2022
Date
Price Changed
IMLS #98839246
*
Price
May 26, 2022
Date
Price Changed
IMLS #98839246
*
Price
May 22, 2022
Date
Price Changed
IMLS #98839246
*
Price
May 19, 2022
Date
Price Changed
IMLS #98839246
*
Price
May 9, 2022
Date
Price Changed
IMLS #98839246
*
Price
May 5, 2022
Date
Price Changed
IMLS #98839246
*
Price
Apr 25, 2022
Date
Price Changed
IMLS #98839246
*
Price
Apr 21, 2022
Date
Listed (Active)
IMLS #98839246
$839,900
Price
Mar, 2020
Mar 26, 2020
Date
Sold (MLS) (Sold)
IMLS #98755531
*
Price
Mar 5, 2020
Date
Pending
IMLS #98755531
—
Price
Feb 12, 2020
Date
Price Changed
IMLS #98755531
*
Price
Jan 27, 2020
Date
Listed (Active)
IMLS #98755531
$475,900
Price

I'm hearing mortgage renegotiation ads for the first time in a decade or more on the radio. Now on two stations.

EBGuy says

There will be blood...?

Correction to HPI of 280?

Until inventory jumps, don't worry about the prices to be honest. Anyone can get work right now. The cost of goods/oil have just shot through the roof. Plus no one is traveling internationally for the most part, but domestically, so the dollar is getting dumped right back into the US.

Until wages drop, interest rates completely skyrocket, or high UE, housing prices ain't moving all that much. Some areas might see a small dip. We're still significantly below the trend line in that graph from the bubble. We need to be above 225 before you start freaking out when factoring inflation. Might be 250-275 to be called a bubble.

Housing ain't the issue right now. Price of goods and moving/transporting them. We need to stop with this green shit. Clearly it doesn't work. It's a tax on the poorest of the poor which is hypocritical of the left. Lower fuel/oil/goods, make their constituents have more wealth. Their policies are ass backwards to the people they purport to represent.

Fact is they don't want them moving to the right/conservative. Keep them constantly poor, give handouts, rinse and repeat.

https://rudy.substack.com/p/to-rob-the-public-they-must-first

A new Zillow® survey shows 50% of home buyers say the process left them in tears, with Gen Zers and millennials — many of whom are first-time home buyers – far more likely to cry at least once during their home-buying journey. More than 65% of Gen Z buyers and 61% of millennial buyers cried at least once when going through the process of purchasing their home.

I got nine Deadfin e-mail Boise listings this evening, eight with price reductions. The avalanche may just be getting started.

zzyzzx says

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/296-Laredo-Dr-Hoover-AL-35226/1057377_zpid/

House in my hood dropped 100K, but has held firm since then, was asking top price so far. No movement it appears. Another house that dropped 100k taken off market for unknown reasons.

with inflation there will be no peak ever

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

with inflation there will be no peak ever

Exactly. Don’t get fooled with “raising” interest rates. It should be temporary. After watching gov spending for years, gov will be back on track in printing and inflate everything.

Blue says

Not enough goods but more free printed money in wrong hands. Now we witness its consequences.

Hopefully that fraud money gets only invested down the crypto rabbit hole.

.

.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/real-estate/real-estate-agent-many-people-desperate-to-sell-right-now-1.5978042

As concerns grow that Canada's red-hot real estate market may be starting to cool, one real estate agent in Toronto says that some homeowners in the city are becoming increasingly "desperate to sell right now."

"They've already purchased their next home," Brett Stein, a real estate agent with Stein Realty Group, told CTV News Channel on Wednesday. "In order to get financing… they need to sell quick."

HunterTits says

Only 29 days...

A 3% price cut on a "hope to get" price? That ain't much.

zzyzzx says

Ooph, there’s some frustration there.

What’s next, price drop?

Patrick says

https://rudy.substack.com/p/to-rob-the-public-they-must-first

A new Zillow® survey shows 50% of home buyers say the process left them in tears, with Gen Zers and millennials — many of whom are first-time home buyers – far more likely to cry at least once during their home-buying journey. More than 65% of Gen Z buyers and 61% of millennial buyers cried at least once when going through the process of purchasing their home.

Cry??? I bought my first investment property at 21. I was ecstatic. This was 2006.... lol. Lesson learned and why I found this site. If you're that emotional about buying a house you shouldn't. Rent or live with mom and dad if you're that weak. Mind you I was freaked out at that age, but said fuck it.

Canary in the coal mine?

Things had horribly dried up in the Las Vegas market with it tough to even meet my “must have” list.

Last week and this week there were at least ten homes in my redfin saved searches that met all my “must haves”and most or all of my “would be nice”. Several in Henderson and Summerlin.

Keep in mind my searches cap out at $525k. Even had a few homes not in the ghetto pop up in the $325-375k range and it’s the first time in a while I’ve seen that. There have been other homes in that price range for the past couple years but everyone was in an unlivable area.

$250,983 TYPICAL HOME VALUE
$209,916 TYPICAL VALUE ONE YEAR AGO
-13.6% 1-YEAR FORECASTED VALUE DECREASE
339 HOMES FOR SALE
39 HOMES RECENTLY SOLD
********
$302,217 TYPICAL HOME VALUE
$262,493 TYPICAL VALUE ONE YEAR AGO
-12.1% 1-YEAR FORECASTED VALUE DECREASE
179 HOMES FOR SALE
46 HOMES RECENTLY SOLD

HunterTits says

WineHorror1 says

A 3% price cut on a "hope to get" price? That ain't much

$20k "ain't much"?

And why was it sitting there for about a month? Should not be happening at all!

Most likely the original asking price was trying to set the market.

HunterTits says

WineHorror1 says

Most likely the original asking price was trying to set the market.

So?

So that doesn't mean it's falling. It just means people aren't getting their dream price.

WineHorror1 says

Only 29 days...

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/11334-Merganser-Rd-Klamath-Falls-OR-97601/75156902_zpid/

It sold for $315,000 or $121 per square foot in 2003.

Assume 4% annual price appreciation based on Professor Robert Shiller's research for average annual appreciation for a home in North America, and that would be 2.19 times its values now, 20 years later.

So $690,000 is not unreasonable. It is selling for $630,000 now.

,,,,,

HunterTits says

WineHorror1 says

A 3% price cut on a "hope to get" price? That ain't much

$20k "ain't much"?

And why was it sitting there for about a month? Should not be happening at all!

$20k really isn't. I could get $20k+ in actual physical cash in less than an hour on credit. It's why I have 20 or so CC's. The ability to jump at an opportunity is a must. Max out IRA's/401k's as they're protected asset classes in BK and borrow your life away (if you want) and they can't touch those investment accounts.

Key is to not get sued by someone that can actually garnish wages if/when you might default or the IRS. But if you're smart you can tell your employer to make you a 1099 employee which they'd do back flips over if you were W-2. Expense the fuck out of everything and show no income and garnishment cannot happen. Everyone that has actual wealth does this.

Outside of family hand me down wealth, anyone I know that is wealthy has defaulted on a bunch of shit. The key is to protect your assets. As long as you keep paying your home loan, it can't be taken in BK. Can't touch retirement accounts. I don't think people fully understand the game. I can quit paying all my CC's and no one can touch my money and I don't have to file BK and wages cannot be garnished. It's why CC's have 20%+ interest rates. It's a risk. Of course your credit will be destroyed, but you can actually dispute that and get it back up quicker than you'd think.

HunterTits says

Outright bullshit is now considered 'research'??

Below is my source for Shiller's statement and research, boy. I figure 3.5% annual inflation since 2003 and added 0.5% to it. Shiller stated housing grows about 0.5% above inflation.

https://thebellacasagroup.com/a-lesson-on-appreciation/

What Is A Normal Appreciation Rate?
What might surprise most people is that pure housing appreciation is normally a very low number. Recently I read this, “When adjusted for inflation, American home prices increased by an average of about half a percentage point per year from 1890 through 2008, according to data compiled by Yale University Professor Robert Shiller.” (By Luke Mullins of U.S. News & World Report). See interesting notes in Wikipedia regarding the Case-Shiller Index which monitors the housing market pricing http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case%E2%80%93Shiller_index

https://qz.com/1064061/house-flippers-triggered-the-us-housing-market-crash-not-poor-subprime-borrowers-a-new-study-shows/

House flippers triggered the US housing market crash, not poor subprime borrowers

Booger says

Don't waive the inspection, I did, but I barely knew what I was getting into.

Do as I say, not as I do.

Booger says

https://qz.com/1064061/house-flippers-triggered-the-us-housing-market-crash-not-poor-subprime-borrowers-a-new-study-shows/

House flippers triggered the US housing market crash, not poor subprime borrowers

This article is from 2017, and it blamed house flippers, who were the ones triggered the US housing market crash in 2008, not poor subprime borrowers.

I beg to differ. It was loose lending aka NINJA loans, which led to speculation/speculators who thought they could “flip” brand new houses for more money a few months to a year down the road.

1337irr says

Don't waive the inspection, I did, but I barely knew what I was getting into.

Do as I say, not as I do.

And initially see if you can notice major problems that are hard to cover up like mold due to roof leaks and plumbing leaks, cracked walls due to failing foundation, etc... run hot water, turn on the stove, lower the thermostat to run the AC, check the electric circuit panel, etc... this is if your buyers agent allows you to do these quick checks...

.

$532,441 TYPICAL HOME VALUE
$466,117 TYPICAL VALUE ONE YEAR AGO
-9.6% 1-YEAR FORECASTED VALUE DECREASE
27 HOMES FOR SALE
10 HOMES RECENTLY SOLD

https://www.redfin.com/news/home-purchases-fall-through-2022/

Home Sales Are Getting Canceled at the Highest Rate Since the Start of the Pandemic

https://www.reddit.com/r/realestateinvesting/comments/vvvrrw/how_to_get_positive_cash_flow/

Hi folks! I am trying to buy my first rental property in Texas. When running the numbers regardless of what I do I get negative cash flow. Unless I do a high amount of downpayment. The best case numbers scenario I have seen is at the end of each year equity is higher than initial investment + negative cash flow.

Example Townhome for 190k, 1055sq ft. Rent would be around ~1100 Calculating 5% vacancy for expense 500/yr for random expenses HOA is 100/Mo Calculating Interest at 5%

One response:
Lol you are describing a conundrum I encountered as a college student around 2006-2007. I was interested in real estate and started looking at condos and two flats. I kept coming up with absurdly negative ROIs using what I was learning in the college real estate courses I was taking.

I was certain I was doing something wrong.

I was not.

Turns out no one was cash flow positive at those prices and shit was about to hit the fan. I suspect you are having the same life experience I did.