patrick.net

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/ym383q/request_for_advice_builder_going_under_and_taking/

Request for advice: Builder going under and taking the money with him

Next door neighbor in Carlsbad, CA sold his 1,800 square foot home for $1.1 million in August. House was built in 1977 and he bought it in the mid 1980's and has ton of equity.

Looks like some flippers bought the house and they were only planning on "modest" home improvements. But they have had folks working on the house (and pool!) for 3 months now. I'm estimating at least $200K has been put into the house so far. Probably more including all the big trees they cut down.

There are only 2 homes in my neighborhood for sale right now and they have been sitting for months with price reductions.

I think the flippers are going to lose their shirt on this house.

Roughly a 3 month supply of houses for sale on a national level.

socal2 says

I think the flippers are going to lose their shirt on this house.

Flippers be floppers.

Booger says

Roughly a 3 month supply of houses for sale on a national level.

I think that is considered an even market.

B.A.C.A.H. says

RC2006 says

I saw on my local news rents have fallen 3%.

Where is this?

Boise

Booger says

Roughly a 3 month supply of houses for sale on a national level.

6 months is classically a balanced market for sellers and buyers. I think most real estate news is clickbait currently based on interest rates and overarching economy. Until the supply hits that, at least locally, I wouldn't get worked up too much about house prices.

The Dems are going to get their asses handed to them tomorrow. If they want the executive branch next term, interest rates are coming down. Housing is not the weak spot currently. No one is building outside of where there's actual demand. No one is building subdivisions assuming they can sell 100 homes without there being a contract on the house.

Oil and supply chain issues are the biggest problem. Not ghetto people aborting children and women's rights. My wife makes more than most on this forum. Not a knock on anyone, but women are doing fine. The wealthy ones are conservative. And not the "wealthy" ones via the husband. Women that earn are conservative as fuck. My wife is probably more conservative than I am. Totally anti-abortion. Hates the taxes we pay even though she's a bit naive to what we pay. Deals with government daily and it chaps her ass. I got lucky our paths somehow aligned soon to be 25 years ago. Fuck, I'm getting old, but I'm still young(ish).

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/ypq789/is_this_a_foreclosure_waiting_to_happen_or_am_i/

From $1,800 per month to $8,000+? Holy shit, mother of all bad decisions!

Glad to hear it on the "Bad Decision, Must Sell" post. Asshole ran from the mess he likely supported in CA and also help raise the price of homes in Snohomish. Succumbed to "peer pressure" is just another way of saying "keep up with the Joneses."

HeadSet says

Succumbed to "peer pressure" is just another way of saying "keep up with the Joneses."

Or the wife made him do it.

https://www.reddit.com/r/FirstTimeHomeBuyer/comments/yp6qeu/i_dont_want_my_house_anymore/

I don't want my house anymore

I bought in early 2022. A house in CA for $590,000. But I no longer want it. My neighbors are annoying, I've been bleeding my savings into renovations, the layout is not what I want, and it's not in that desirable of an area.

I've been looking at the market and similar houses are going for under $500k. So I want to sell the one I have and buy a newer, better, and cheaper house.

The problem is though that I bought this place less than 6 months ago so I'm not even sure if it's possible to sell that soon. Unless I offload it to an ibuyer like redfin.

Does anyone know if selling in less than 6 months is a possibility? I understand I may sell at a loss but how bad is that really?

zzyzzx says

HeadSet says

Succumbed to "peer pressure" is just another way of saying "keep up with the Joneses."

Or the wife made him do it.

^^^^^^^^^. Pussy is hella expensive. Better to rent.

GNL says

zzyzzx says

HeadSet says

Succumbed to "peer pressure" is just another way of saying "keep up with the Joneses."

Or the wife made him do it.

^^^^^^^^^. Pussy is hella expensive. Better to rent.

It may have been the wife's job that bought in the most loot.

HeadSet says

GNL says

zzyzzx says

HeadSet says

Succumbed to "peer pressure" is just another way of saying "keep up with the Joneses."

Or the wife made him do it.

^^^^^^^^^. Pussy is hella expensive. Better to rent.

It may have been the wife's job that bought in the most loot.

Yes, could be. $$ don't make a person smart. I know a guy who owned a very successful printing company. The guy could not read or write.

Several new 'admitted' price cuts occurring in many units in Santa Cruz.

GNL says

^^^^^^^^^. Pussy is hella expensive. Better to rent

Rent house? Or pussy?

Onvacation says

GNL says

^^^^^^^^^. Pussy is hella expensive. Better to rent

Rent house? Or pussy?

Rent pussy. I don't really mean that but, anyone who's married for a length of time has thought it might have been smarter. I assume.

Eman says

That’s quite a generalized statement.

Good points.

GNL says

$$ don't make a person smart. I know a guy who owned a very successful printing company. The guy could not read or write.

If he started and built a very successful business (not inherited), then he is smart. Might have a learning disability or severe dyslexia. Measuring smarts by literacy would put a bilingual Latino kid ahead of his English only speaking Professor.

https://old.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/yq9o7u/price_changes/

Literally two weeks ago, we put an offer on a new construction home with the builder. House was priced pretty high at $735k, and I told the realtor I did not want to exceed the loan limit so our offer will be $675k (I realize this seems low, but it was appropriate for the area/current market). They came back and would not lower the price below $710k. They had a smaller model come available since the original buyer backed out and we tried our offer again at $675k. They came back with $686k. This seemed high still, but we’re having a baby in a couple months so we want to get this move done quickly so we stupidly agreed. We signed contracts with the builder and put down a deposit of $15k. The loan is in process and the approximate move in date is 11/29. Fast forward to today, we stopped by to get a measurement and I see they lowered all of their base prices by $60k and the house that they refused to lower below $710k is now $689k. I realize we should’ve just waited, but this pregnancy has me fat and impatient. Is there anything we can do? Can we ask them to lower the price? Can we try to switch houses now after contracts were signed?

This will affect some markets:
https://www.hrdive.com/news/report-9-in-10-companies-will-require-return-to-office-by-2023/633055/

Report: 9 in 10 companies will require return to office by 2023

zzyzzx says

I realize we should’ve just waited, but this pregnancy has me fat and impatient

Ah, the good old housebuying while pregnant....

HeadSet says

GNL says

$$ don't make a person smart. I know a guy who owned a very successful printing company. The guy could not read or write.

If he started and built a very successful business (not inherited), then he is smart. Might have a learning disability or severe dyslexia. Measuring smarts by literacy would put a bilingual Latino kid ahead of his English only speaking Professor.

Yes, he did inherit it. But he reimagined the company and took all work in over the web. He hired people to create his vision. I'd say that took some intelligence.

zzyzzx says

https://old.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/yq9o7u/price_changes/

Literally two weeks ago, we put an offer on a new construction home with the builder. House was priced pretty high at $735k, and I told the realtor I did not want to exceed the loan limit so our offer will be $675k (I realize this seems low, but it was appropriate for the area/current market). They came back and would not lower the price below $710k. They had a smaller model come available since the original buyer backed out and we tried our offer again at $675k. They came back with $686k. This seemed high still, but we’re having a baby in a couple months so we want to get this move done quickly so we stupidly agreed. We signed contracts with the builder and put down a deposit of $15k. The loan is in process and the approximate move in date is 11/29. Fast forward to today, we stoppe...

Best to never put yourself in a position where you have to do something.

Eric Holder says

Ah, the good old housebuying while pregnant....

The 'nesting imperative' dominated by genetic narcissism trumps common sense.

Ceffer says

Eric Holder says

Ah, the good old housebuying while pregnant....

The 'nesting imperative' dominated by genetic narcissism trumps common sense.

Another "The wife made me do it"...

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/fb33f461-a993-385a-8ba4-823885808a67/d-r-horton%E2%80%99s-earnings-fall.html

D.R. Horton’s Earnings Fall Short as Home Orders Drop and Cancellations Rise

Another real estate investor losing money:
https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/ypyjmk/please_advise/

https://news3lv.com/amp/news/local/las-vegas-housing-market-continues-to-cool-in-october-southern-nevada-home-prices-real-estate-listings-mortgage-interest-rates-condos-townhomes

The median price for an existing single-family home sold in Southern Nevada last month was $440,000, the group Las Vegas Realtors reports.

That figure is down 2.2% from September when the median price was $450,000. It's also the fourth time in the last five months that prices have declined and down from the all-time record of $482,000 set in May.

ERECTION INTENSEFYING!!!

https://news.yahoo.com/redfin-shutting-down-home-flipping-140510024.html

Redfin is shutting down its home-flipping business and laying off 13% of staff

Redfin announced it would cut 862 people, or 13% of its staff, on Wednesday.

It's winding down its home-flipping business, RedfinNow, also known as an iBuyer.

The real-estate company Redfin announced on Wednesday that it would lay off 862 staffers, or 13% of its workforce as it sees the housing contraction lingering into 2023.

Of the cuts, 264 of those are related to the company's home-flipping business, RedfinNow, which it will shut down, the company said in a financial filing.

zzyzzx says

Redfin is shutting down its home-flipping business and laying off 13% of staff

So these idiots ventured into flipping too?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-housing-market-should-brace-for-double-digit-mortgage-rates-in-2023-11666302773

Housing market should brace for mortgage rates hitting 10% in 2023, investment banker says

Even if Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his cohorts stopped hiking policy rates soon, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate still would climb to 10%, according to Christopher Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors.

That’s because the Fed’s torrid pace of rate increases in 2022 takes time to seep back into mortgage rates, especially with the fed-funds rate already jumping to a 3%-3.25% range in late September, from almost zero a year before.

“Lenders only slowly adjust their rates,” Whalen told MarketWatch. “They are not used to seeing rates moving this fast, and typically would change rates only once a month or once every other month.”

Borrowers pay a premium above risk-free Treasury rates on mortgages to help account for default risks. The 30-year Treasury rate TMUBMUSD30Y, 4.092% rose to 4.213% Thursday, its highest since 2011, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Freddie Mac on Thursday said the 30-year mortgage rate was averaging 6.94% in its latest weekly survey, a 20-year high that has severely curtailed demand for new home loans.

But with U.S. inflation showing no signs of a clear pullback from a 40-year high, expectations have been running high for the Fed to increase its policy rate by another 75 basis points at its November meeting, and potentially by the same amount again in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

The CME odds on Thursday favored a 4.75%-5% fed-funds rate to kick off February.

“There is a lag effect in mortgages,” Whalen said, adding that even if central bankers decided to hit pause on additional rate increases after their December meeting, the 30-year mortgage rate still would “easily touch 10% by February.”

Whalen, an investment banker, author and specialist focused on banking and mortgage finance, urged the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in 2008 to move complex and opaque derivatives “back into the daylight,” after banks and investors saw hundreds of billions of dollars in losses tied to structured debt, including subprime mortgage exposure. He also provided testimony to Congress in 2009 about systemic risks of the banking industry.

Importantly, Whalen also sees potential for home prices to give back all of their pandemic gains if rates stay high for all of 2023.

That’s a bigger call than estimates for a 10%-15% correction in home prices from prices that surged 45% nationally during the pandemic.

But Whalen pointed to speculative home flipping volumes that reached almost $150 billion, or 10% of total home sales in 2022, and the cold blanket of double-digit mortgage rates as catalysts for a steeper home price retreat.

Eric Holder says

So these idiots ventured into flipping too?

Yes.

https://layoffstracker.com/flyhomes-2nd-round-of-layoffs/

FlyHomes, Seattle-based real estate tech startup has undergone 2nd round of layoffs in less than 6 months.

I am seeing builders drop the price per sq. ft. on new homes below that of used home prices, so I asked the home saleswoman with whom I am in dialogue if she would present an offer to the seller's agent below the listing price using this new comp, which is for a new home. Crickets chirping.....

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

I am seeing builders drop the price per sq. ft. on new homes below that of used home prices, so I asked the home saleswoman with whom I am in dialogue if she would present an offer to the seller's agent below the listing price using this new comp, which is for a new home. Crickets chirping.....

Remember to make any real estate offer timeout! Good for the day, or if good for several days with a de-escalation clause.