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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   464,712 views  4,806 comments

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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1065   Blue   2022 Oct 8, 7:49pm  

Booger says

“marry the house, date the rate”

is this something common phrase in RE market! Just last week I heard realtor woman on 92.3FM (an Indian channel in bay area, ca) says, '...if you are seller I'd say wait a year to get top price, if you are buyer maaaaa...aaaaaarry the house...'. Lol! that indicates that there are enough not so smart folks around when it comes to RE since she claims she is one of the 'top' realtor in Bay Area! There is one other RE guy comes on different days in that channel, he named him self "Bro" who plays sound clips of prerecorded testimonials from his clients how great the "Bro" was in purchasing their shack. His commercials involve a wife says to her frustrated husband/victim home buying is so easy with "Bro". RE is really crazy as long as the $Ts of gov money involved in loan process.
1066   AmericanKulak   2022 Oct 8, 7:56pm  

Booger says


They’re just not getting it. Prices are coming down but they’re certainly not getting it. Our lovely realtor gave us the old “marry the house, date the rate” line.

Great post.

Yep, as I said before:

For all the talk of all cash buyers, 5 members of an Asian Family going in on a big house, etc. etc. the #1 source of buyers is Joe Blow and his demanding wife, looking at the monthly mortgage payment, not the total price.
1067   Booger   2022 Oct 9, 4:27pm  

https://news.yahoo.com/homebuyers-rejecting-more-offers-ever-090050885.html

Homebuyers are rejecting more offers than ever for 'tiny' issues. What's a seller to do?
1068   zzyzzx   2022 Oct 11, 9:36am  

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/11/mortgage-rate-is-over-7percent-harder-to-qualify-for-loan.html

It’s bad enough mortgage rates are over 7% – now it’s harder to qualify for a home loan
1071   Ceffer   2022 Oct 11, 11:04am  

My beautiful fiat equity! Melting, melting!
1073   Ceffer   2022 Oct 11, 11:48am  

Strange how zillow stats roll. House next to us officially sold at half price due to inheritors 'buying' it and paying off the other inheritor to occupy the home. That has dragged our comps down nominally in their estimates.
1074   REpro   2022 Oct 11, 12:01pm  

Ceffer says

Strange how zillow stats roll. House next to us officially sold at half price due to inheritors 'buying' it and paying off the other inheritor to occupy the home. That has dragged our comps down nominally in their estimates.

Shit happens.
1075   zzyzzx   2022 Oct 12, 7:27am  

Property tax increase:
1078   WookieMan   2022 Oct 12, 9:05am  

Booger says

https://news.yahoo.com/homebuyers-rejecting-more-offers-ever-090050885.html

Homebuyers are rejecting more offers than ever for 'tiny' issues. What's a seller to do?

This has never stopped. When you have 5 parties involved in a transaction they have to justify their worth. Inspectors are probably the worst from my experience. All other parties generally want the transaction to go through. The inspector gets another inspection from that buyer if the deal doesn't close because they made chipping paint a problem. There's no incentive for them not to dramatize minor problems with a property. Especially with the wife around. Inspectors are a racket more so than realtors.
1079   Blue   2022 Oct 12, 9:27am  

WookieMan says

Booger says


https://news.yahoo.com/homebuyers-rejecting-more-offers-ever-090050885.html

Homebuyers are rejecting more offers than ever for 'tiny' issues. What's a seller to do?

This has never stopped. When you have 5 parties involved in a transaction they have to justify their worth. Inspectors are probably the worst from my experience. All other parties generally want the transaction to go through. The inspector gets another inspection from that buyer if the deal doesn't close because they made chipping paint a problem. There's no incentive for them not to dramatize minor problems with a property. Especially with the wife around. Inspectors are a racket more so than realtors.

Homebuyers are rejecting more offers than ever - is good to bring prices to make shack to be a non-ATM but holding cash at 10+% inflation is equally risky unless be in stock, bond, commodities or some physical assets. I seriously doubt if the real inflation will go below 10% at least in a year or two. In that scenario physical goods including home/shack prices will not go further down in many areas.
1080   zzyzzx   2022 Oct 12, 10:55am  

https://lbpost.com/news/rising-interest-rates-dump-bucket-of-ice-water-on-hot-real-estate-market

Rising interest rates ‘dump bucket of ice water’ on hot real estate market
1081   Ceffer   2022 Oct 12, 12:14pm  

cisTits says

Not a surprise to me or the others denigrated by the 'housing experts' of PatNet when we started calling this 7 months or so ago.

Patnet housing punching bag no more! LOL! The Reckoning is nigh!
1082   HeadSet   2022 Oct 12, 5:42pm  

WookieMan says

There's no incentive for them not to dramatize minor problems with a property. Especially with the wife around. Inspectors are a racket more so than realtors.

That is why when I sold off some rentals (and a main home), I would leave something I planned to repair anyway undone so the inspector would have an issue to find. That way the inspector looks like a hero and proved he is worth the cost to the buyer.
1085   zzyzzx   2022 Oct 13, 7:08am  

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/y2bho6/in_need_of_solution_for_cancelled_showings/

in need of solution for cancelled showings

Our house has been on the market for about two months now (southeastern USA) and we've had about four cancellations last minute. I have a 8mo and it's very difficult to clean the house last minute for someone that calls our realtor and says they want to see the house in 2hrs. I'm so frustrated. I thought we might only do showings on certain days so that I could plan in advance and it won't effect us as much if they cancel but my realtor said it's a bad idea. Is there anything else we can do?

Edit to add I guess I'll talk to my realtor about possibly needing to lower the price.
1086   WookieMan   2022 Oct 13, 8:57am  

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/y2bho6/in_need_of_solution_for_cancelled_showings/

in need of solution for cancelled showings

Our house has been on the market for about two months now (southeastern USA) and we've had about four cancellations last minute. I have a 8mo and it's very difficult to clean the house last minute for someone that calls our realtor and says they want to see the house in 2hrs. I'm so frustrated. I thought we might only do showings on certain days so that I could plan in advance and it won't effect us as much if they cancel but my realtor said it's a bad idea. Is there anything else we can do?

Edit to add I guess I'll talk to my realtor about possibly needing to lower the price.

This was the FUCKING DUMBEST thing I dealt with in real estate. You're selling your god damn house. Prepare yourself. Having raised two babies with my wife, the kid can skip a fucking nap. You triggered me zzyzzx. You're not some special snowflake when you go to sell your home. A cancelled showing affects more than just the seller. We dealt with it on a daily fucking basis. Your fucking kid can nap later. Parent better.

This is probably a top 5 reason I got out of RE. Humans are selfish as fuck. Set times you're available to show your home. You can easily have the Realtor put that in the MLS. Not complicated. Cancelled showings happen with EVERY listing. You're not special as the homeowner and being upset that you have to take your kids to the park or go have a beer at your local establishment is what you do. Stop being pussies.
1087   B.A.C.A.H.   2022 Oct 13, 11:43am  

WookieMan says

...FUCKING DUMBEST ... god damn house. ...the kid can skip a fucking nap. ... You're not some special snowflake... a daily fucking .. Your fucking kid ... Humans are selfish as fuck. ... Stop being pussies.

Chill out, WookieMan.
1090   zzyzzx   2022 Oct 17, 7:06am  

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/y5x65t/i_bid_on_a_850k_original_list_price_in_nw_austin/

I bid on a $850K original list price in NW Austin and after a few back and forth, it got accepted for $750K

They probably could have waited and paid less.
1091   AD   2022 Oct 17, 8:46am  

WookieMan says


This is probably a top 5 reason I got out of RE. Humans are selfish as fuck. Set times you're available to show your home. You can easily have the Realtor put that in the MLS. Not complicated. Cancelled showings happen with EVERY listing. You're not special as the homeowner and being upset that you have to take your kids to the park or go have a beer at your local establishment is what you do. Stop being pussies.


Also make it enticing as far as have very good photos and video of each room and space of the house, including the exterior, front yard and back yard. Take video of the appliances running such as the dishwasher. Show a thermometer reading of the hot water coming from a bathroom sink.

I put a lot of info out there on Ebay when I sold my car. I posted videos of the dashboard when the car was running. I posted videos and photos of the engine and tires (including detail views of the tire treads).

I posted a video of the a/c running and a thermometer to show the a/c cools the inside. I posted photos of maintenance receipts like for oil changes, etc. I sold it for the price I wanted before the pandemic. I posted a link to a cloud link like Google Drive that had all the videos and photos of the receipts.

.
1093   AD   2022 Oct 17, 12:11pm  

zzyzzx says




zzyzzx, who bought this home ? they are going to lose a lot of money. I would appreciate it 6% for 3 years as far as figure out near-bottom price.

(1.06)^3 x $313,500 = $373,383

Maybe $400,000 is bottom price.

.
1094   Patrick   2022 Oct 17, 3:56pm  

https://thegoodcitizen.substack.com/p/greatest-american-bank


When they bailed out the banks responsible for the mess with a few trillion dollars and nobody went to jail, and there were no riots, and the Federal Reserve building still stood and all the bank CEOs showed up to the White House to have a beer with Obama who did some mild finger waving, I knew without a shred of doubt that we were, and still are watching a late stage failing empire.

The whole mortgage experience did produce a screenplay and a one-act stage play called Option ARM, named after the insane mortgage product that allowed borrowers to choose what payment option they wanted to make each month including one with negative amortization.

It may read like a farce, but it’s based on true events and real people, including one who served six years in prison for mortgage fraud.

The short play appears as text below. If you prefer to read it as a PDF you can download this file.
1095   B.A.C.A.H.   2022 Oct 17, 5:31pm  

We paid the tax on our 50+ y/o 1150 sq ft sh*tbox in an undesirable part of SJ: $3000 ($6000 annual) on an assessed value of $339k.

®ealtors who tell you the Property Tax Rate is 1%, while not lying, are disingenuous. The BASE rate is 1.0%. But, various and sundry Junk Fees are piled on.

As a courtesy to we Tax Donkeys, for the first time that I noticed the Tax Collector broke out the various and sundry Junk Fees by additional assessments (percentage of assessed value) and parcel taxes (fixed amount regardless of the assessed value).

There's 8 additional line items below the top line "1% MAXIMUM LEVY", for a total overall rate of 1.2908%, and 11 different parcel taxes adding up to $1710.

A home similar to ours sold on our street this summer for $1.05 M. I knew the owner (seller), he literally told me that they followed the realtor's instructions to "put some lipstick on this pig" to get it ready for sale. The $0.9 M profit would partly fund he and spouse's retirement relocation to Sierra foothills. The new owners signed up for a tax bill of about $15K.
1096   WookieMan   2022 Oct 17, 10:53pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says

WookieMan says


...FUCKING DUMBEST ... god damn house. ...the kid can skip a fucking nap. ... You're not some special snowflake... a daily fucking .. Your fucking kid ... Humans are selfish as fuck. ... Stop being pussies.

Chill out, WookieMan.

Nope. Deal with 40-50 entitled sellers in one month. The other brokers. The lenders. The attorneys. The inspectors. HOA's. Insurance companies. Title companies. The list goes on. For 15 years. I managed all that shit. Sometimes 100 hours a week dealing with dip shits. It's why I took 3 years off and reconnected with myself. I was at the will of others that were trying to grab a piece of the pie.

Don't bitch about a showing when you're selling your house. That's fucking fact. Why even put your house up for sale? 8am-8pm is open game for your house to be shown if you want it to sell. That is part of home ownership. This is the only time I'll defend brokers. You work when othesr don't work. When your client works, you're trying to find the next buyer or listing. The commission is not justified, but it's not an easy job. Tons of emotion too. Take your kid for a god damn walk or ride in the stroller. Send them to granny's house.

We've become a country of pussies. Raise your kid. Be an adult. It's a human, it's not more special than any other human. It can go without its little nap time. Be happy someone wants to look at your home at 1pm and not 6pm when you want to have dinner. Fuck the nap. I've raised 2 boys. It's not difficult.
1099   B.A.C.A.H.   2022 Oct 18, 1:57pm  

WookieMan says

Chill out, WookieMan.

Nope

If you say so, WookieMan.

Be careful though, because anger can be destructive, particularly to those who are consumed with it.
1100   WookieMan   2022 Oct 18, 2:47pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says

If you say so, WookieMan.

Be careful though, because anger can be destructive, particularly to those who are consumed with it.

It's not anger. I like to swear. It gets to the point more directly. Calling someone a bitch or pussy in interpreted as anger to the listener or reader, that ain't me. Seller's that whine about having to sell their homes, generally at a profit are little bitches. You're likely selling something most of the time with 6 figure tax free appreciation unless you bought at the top and HAVE to sell at the bottom.

I give zero shits about Timmy's nap time. Don't expect pleasantries when you handcuff the person you'll end up paying thousands for a job you're asking them to do so you don't have to. It's moronic. I've raised two boys and have managed a real estate brokerage. Wife worked full time during that time. If you're selling your house then sell the fucking thing.

I dislike brokers having worked with them. No one here has a clue how stressful it is to run a brokerage though. I thought I'd get more sympathy from this crowd considering how the site was started/based on. Brokers are morons and dicks, but buyers and sellers are the worst. They have ZERO clue. They do it 2-3 times in their life generally. I was managing transaction 30 times a month roughly. I think it's Eman? that flips and has properties here at Patnet. If the average person is a 1 of 10 with knowledge on real estate, which 95% of people are, Eman is a 6 or 7. I'm a 9 or 10.

I'll never us an attorney or Realtor ever again. I can build a house, so inspectors are out. Especially in todays world. I can "list" my house anywhere. I don't need the MLS. I don't need a low cost brokerage. When you get a loan I'M doing 90% of the work. Lenders are used car sales people. They don't care. I'm going to GC my build. Why throw 20-30% of cost at idiots.

I guess I'd say this. It's knowledge and ego, not anger. Just calling out that 80% of people in real estate, at least, are dead weight. That's fact. Pareto 80/20. Then throw in emotional idiots buying and selling for the 2nd time and yeah, it's a shit show.
1101   AD   2022 Oct 18, 3:47pm  

zzyzzx says

She Bought Her House As The Market Peaked. Now She Regrets It.


You buy a house with intent of owning it at least 5 years. Better to buy with an assumable mortgage at a low rate such as VA or FHA mortgage, that way you can sell the mortgage with the house.

I figured if we had to sell our home bought in 2016 with a VA mortgage at 3%, then half of the cost can be through the assumable mortgage at 3%, and the other half would be with a mortgage around 6%. So the effective rate 4.5%.

,
1102   GNL   2022 Oct 18, 4:58pm  

ad says

Better to buy with an assumable mortgage at a low rate such as VA or FHA mortgage, that way you can sell the mortgage with the house.

How often do people actually assume a VA loan? I ask because if the seller gives the buyer the VA loan then they cannot get another VA loan on their next purchase. Well, not unless the buyer is a veteran.
1103   AD   2022 Oct 18, 5:33pm  

GNL says

How often do people actually assume a VA loan? I ask because if the seller gives the buyer the VA loan then they cannot get another VA loan on their next purchase. Well, not unless the buyer is a veteran.


Check with the bank providing the VA mortgage and also the VA, but the qualified buyer does not need to be a veteran to assume the VA mortgage. Also FHA mortgages are assumable.

I think also the maximum amount for a VA mortgage is $650,000. So whatever the seller hands over the buyer for the VA mortgage is subtracted. So if the buyer assumes $200,000 balance on the VA mortgage, then deduct that $200,000 from the $650,000. So the seller would only have $450,000 on eligibility as far as buying another house.

.
1104   WookieMan   2022 Oct 18, 5:59pm  

GNL says

How often do people actually assume a VA loan? I ask because if the seller gives the buyer the VA loan then they cannot get another VA loan on their next purchase. Well, not unless the buyer is a veteran.

Veterans can have multiple loans. I don't know the details myself. My buddy owned two homes at one time with VA loans, veteran obviously. One he rented out, one he lived in. One of the perks of killing people and getting shot at. Both of which he did in Afghanistan.

I believe there are time limits of ownership, and it has to be primary, if you have multiple VA loans. Guessing, but live there for two years and you can get another place and rent out the old place. Probably distance related too. He moved from IL to MT.

Loans are overly complicated. I'm 50 miles outside of Chicago. Never would do this, but I could get a 2nd/vacation home loan with less than 20% down. If I was in Naperville for example 25-30 miles out, I'd have to come up with 20% down no matter what unless I had a small banker relationship. Fannie and Freddie won't do 2nd home loan within 50 miles of your primary without 20 down.

A great example is say you're a professor in Madison at the University of Wisconsin. 30 miles north is Mirror Lake in the Dells. You'd have to put 20% down if you went through the likes of Wells Fargo, BOA, Chase, etc. I'd consider a cabin there a vacation home, but because you live so close you have to pay more up front. I never understood the reasoning.

There are so many quirks to lending. If I ever get invested in RE again, I'm not using traditional banks. Network and know people with money. My MIL financed the house I'm sitting without using a dime of her cash. Margin. Got to get creative in RE sometimes.

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