patrick.net

mostly reader says

You missed my first point. Calling Fox and CNN "the other side of propaganda" when you compare them to the likes of RT/RIA is like comparing stuffy nose to cancer. Or playground misunderstanding to UFC heavyweight title fight. Pick your preferred analogy. Our media couldn't hold candle to the hammer-like brainwashing of the other side. Same goes for our government: they are so useless, they look like they are lying even when they combat Russian disinformation. Here: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/10/us-denies-russian-claims-of-biowarfare-labs-in-ukraine?source=patrick.net They couldn't even explain why this is disinformation.

How do YOU know what is propaganda and what isn't?

So how do YOU know the Biolabs are propaganda?

mostly reader says

There's only one answer: you use your process to predict future and see how well that goes, and if it doesn't then you make adjustments. We have a wonderful setup here: a thread kindly presented by @Bd6r https://patrick.net/post/1343705/2022-02-18-will-russia-invade-ukraine in which he asked to do exactly that, to make a prediction.

Now, go through that thread. Note all the people who said "No". And understand: the higher the enthusiasm with which a person said "no", the more clueless they are about what's going on in real life. Pay special attention to those who said "No" along with some cute remark pointing elsewhere.

Yes, the past prediction metric.

However, I'll the "falsus en unum" isn't always a perfect metric. We've been told Russia was building up forces to invade Ukraine many times before, just like we've been told Iran is on the verge of nuclear weapons (not that that isn't an end goal, but we've heard that for 20 years). We've also been told that COVID mandate lifting were going to create mass death waves not mere months ago, now even NYC is lifting it's restrictions. Same about refusal to get vaccinated, that the vaccine protected people from death with immunity, but simultaneously somehow the unvaccinated were endangering the vaccinated who had immunity. That the vaccine worked well on variants (Fauci, 2021 also Biden and CDC Director W????stein/berg) turned out to have little impact vs. Omnicron.

Does that make the US/Various State Governments unreliable on other issues? They were "Falsus en unum" so why not in "Omnibus"? In fact in many "unums", ha.

So based on past performance, it was actually reasonable to expect Russia not to Invade, esp. given the Admin's need to pivot from loser COVID and the shit Economy.

For example:
Or, the poorest country in the area that has previously downed Civilian Aircraft by mistake in the past, couldn't possibly have downed another one (MH17).

There's a term I made called "Faux Skeptic", it's about people who apply skepticism to counter-status quo narratives, but give the Establishment/Status Quo Narratives every consideration with lack of said skepticism. Like Factcheckers do.

I would like to know how you "know" the biolabs are propaganda, however.

Where it is going - a failed state with white Christian Slavic Isis-like resistors. Russia isolated from the EU. The Belt and road stalled in this region. Russian energy possibly verbotten very long-term. NATO reinvigorated. Germany gets the war buzz going. (See The Ramones for musical accompaniment.)

The usual helter-skelter CIA disruption/destruction. But the USA are the good guyz, you see.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

The usual helter-skelter CIA disruption/destruction.

Which leads to Klaus Schwab rubbing his hands together like the demented Pelosi doing her Human Fly impression when she contemplates G.I.'s breathing toxic smoke.

> AmericanKulak

You are confusing data with narrative with prediction.

"Russia is amassing it's forces at the boarder" - that's an example of data (right or wrong).
"This doesn't look good" - that's an example of narrative (right or wrong).
"Russia will invade Ukraine" - that's prediction.

Process picks your sources for data and narrative. Those sources may be conflicting. Process further takes them to prediction. Of the 3, prediction is the one that may be verified. If your predictions are wrong, it's time to change the process.

That's what a data-oriented person would do. But note how folks who were verifiably wrong didn't reconsider their process. I'd say that the opposite happened: cognitive dissonance ensued and most of them doubled down.

AmericanKulak says

I would like to know how you "know" the biolabs are propaganda, however.

Because at this point Russia has no way of knowing if it's a genuine research lab or bio-warfare lab.

Furthermore, I went on record saying that these labs will not affect diplomatic relationships between US and Russia. I don't see anyone go on record and say otherwise.