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1
Maga_Chaos_Monkey
2021 Jul 11, 12:35am
Maga_Chaos_Monkey
2021 Jul 11, 12:35am
You know, I fly a LOT these days because my folks live out of state and are getting older. So I try to go to Texas several time a year to visit from CA. Since maybe 09 I've loaded my phone up with patnet threads to read (I can't reply mid-air) and each time I do I lament:
There are no end of year - next year prediction threads. I miss reading those debates. I used to read them when I didn't even have an account and never joined in. There was some dinosaur guy. All this time I thought maybe that was 10lb bass. There was a dodger fan too.
Anyhow, we should do that again this year. I think it sort of went away because things have gotten so shitty in the US and nobody wants to make to take the positive side, myself included.
There are no end of year - next year prediction threads. I miss reading those debates. I used to read them when I didn't even have an account and never joined in. There was some dinosaur guy. All this time I thought maybe that was 10lb bass. There was a dodger fan too.
Anyhow, we should do that again this year. I think it sort of went away because things have gotten so shitty in the US and nobody wants to make to take the positive side, myself included.
2
Tenpoundbass
2021 Jul 11, 7:31am
Tenpoundbass
2021 Jul 11, 7:31am
I'm the dino guy. And I predict this thread will be a hit.
Look who I found on one of my hard drives, I was going through old thumb drives and hard drives, trying to find the code base for a project I did years ago.
It's Captain Shuddap
Look who I found on one of my hard drives, I was going through old thumb drives and hard drives, trying to find the code base for a project I did years ago.
It's Captain Shuddap
3
clambo
2021 Jul 11, 8:56am
I’m not surprised.
1. Pent up demand for vacations.
2. Stocks are up 107% over the last 5 years.
A lot of people in California have new “monopoly money” if they work in tech.
My friend’s son works at some place and they were bought or are a start up IPO or something and his net worth jumped by 4 million bucks recently from it. He’s not alone in the valley.
1. Pent up demand for vacations.
2. Stocks are up 107% over the last 5 years.
A lot of people in California have new “monopoly money” if they work in tech.
My friend’s son works at some place and they were bought or are a start up IPO or something and his net worth jumped by 4 million bucks recently from it. He’s not alone in the valley.
4
Shaman
2021 Jul 11, 10:31am
Shaman
2021 Jul 11, 10:31am
Prediction threads are fun, but you have to remember the wise words of legendary baseball commentator Yogi Berra:
“Making predictions is hard, especially about the future!”
That said, anyone want to have a go at it? When will masking end in blue states?
Will the Covid vaccine wind down as a priority or become a real fascist monster? Or will it suddenly go waaaay out of favor as the vaccinated begin dying off due to unforeseen (or maybe villainously orchestrated) bad effects? Could it kill off a few billion people or just sterilize most of the females?
Could we wind up in some Handmaid’s Tale world?
Or will it be a big nothingburger that everyone forgets in a few years as things go back to normal and we all “go back to brunch?”
“Making predictions is hard, especially about the future!”
That said, anyone want to have a go at it? When will masking end in blue states?
Will the Covid vaccine wind down as a priority or become a real fascist monster? Or will it suddenly go waaaay out of favor as the vaccinated begin dying off due to unforeseen (or maybe villainously orchestrated) bad effects? Could it kill off a few billion people or just sterilize most of the females?
Could we wind up in some Handmaid’s Tale world?
Or will it be a big nothingburger that everyone forgets in a few years as things go back to normal and we all “go back to brunch?”
5
Onvacation
2021 Jul 11, 10:36am
Onvacation
2021 Jul 11, 10:36am
Shaman says
No. Normal has a new meaning.
I'm hoping we can keep our Republic.
Prediction threads are fun, but you have to remember the wise words of legendary baseball commentator Yogi Berra:
“Making predictions is hard, especially about the future!”
That said, anyone want to have a go at it? When will masking end in blue states?
Will the Covid vaccine wind down as a priority or become a real fascist monster? Or will it suddenly go waaaay out of favor as the vaccinated begin dying off due to unforeseen (or maybe villainously orchestrated) bad effects? Could it kill off a few billion people or just sterilize most of the females?
Could we wind up in some Handmaid’s Tale world?
Or will it be a big nothingburger that everyone forgets in a few years as things go back to normal and we all “go back to brunch?”
No. Normal has a new meaning.
I'm hoping we can keep our Republic.
6
Shaman
2021 Jul 11, 12:18pm
Shaman
2021 Jul 11, 12:18pm
Onvacation says
That’s gonna be tough when we lose 70% of our population and the Chinese still have a billion people.
I'm hoping we can keep our Republic.
That’s gonna be tough when we lose 70% of our population and the Chinese still have a billion people.
10
Al_Sharpton_for_President
2025 Dec 19, 4:29am
Al_Sharpton_for_President
2025 Dec 19, 4:29am
Hawaii island passes law that phases out thousands of short-term rentals
On Monday, Maui County Council passed historic legislation that aims to phase out over 6,200 transient vacation rentals, or TVRs, in West and South Maui.
Introduced in May 2024 by Mayor Richard Bissen, Bill 9 aims to increase the availability of long-term housing for local families amid a housing crisis that was exacerbated by the Lahaina wildfire, which destroyed more than 2,200 structures and displaced over 12,000 people.
Units in West Maui will need to be phased out by Jan. 1, 2029, with those in South Maui by Jan. 1, 2031. The units are part of the Minatoya List, which consists of transient vacation rentals located in apartment-zoned areas. These properties were built before 1989 and are grandfathered in under a permit exemption. Generally, TVRs are only permitted to operate in hotel-zoned areas.
Bissen signed the bill into law Monday afternoon.
“Rebalancing our housing market means we must return apartment-zoned housing to local families and residents—and that principle has guided our approach to Bill 9 from the very beginning,” said Mayor Bissen in a news release.
The move does not eliminate all of Maui’s short-term rentals. About 6,500 TVR parcels will still operate, alongside thousands of units in hotels, time-shares and bed-and-breakfasts, according to Maui County’s Real Property Tax Division.
Bissen also added that the journey of taking on powerful interests like the short-term rental industry wasn’t easy. “We’ve seen an influx of outside messaging driven by special interests attempting to influence our community through fear. But the facts matter,” he said, noting that 94% of the housing was owned by people outside Maui, and most are owned by people outside Hawaii, with TVRs taking up 21% of Maui’s entire housing inventory.
“Decisions about Maui’s housing should be guided by the needs of the people who live here—not by outside interests trying to protect profits,” he said.
The outside messaging Bissen was referring to involved D.C.-based group Progress Action, which ran thousands of dollars in attack ads against the bill in the months leading up to the hearings, according to Civil Beat.
For the past year, hundreds of people have spoken out, both in opposition and support, providing hours of emotional testimony on the bill, which divided fire survivors, housing advocates, property owners and those in the real estate industry.
Those in opposition often highlighted economic impacts such as job losses, steep declines in tax revenue, and the transient accommodation tax.
“Bill 9 represents a loss of roughly $65 million in real property taxes per year, along with an estimated $50 million in general excise tax and transient accommodations tax revenues,” said Council Vice-Chair Yuki Lei Sugimura, who voted “no” on the bill. “... The proposed solution is to offset those losses by raising taxes on who? You, the taxpayers, are going to be burdened with the tax losses.”
Bissen argued that this could be mitigated by diversifying the economy, public policy and strategic tax incentives that make the transition easier for owners and renters.
Other major tourist hubs, like Amsterdam, Barcelona and New York, have also enacted policies against short-term rentals, and tourism has grown, with people going to hotels instead, the county said.
Others in opposition spoke of the high cost of the units, and lack of suitability for long-term housing for families, since many are one- to three-bedroom units. However, data presented at an earlier hearing showed these types of units are in the highest demand.
There was also concern over the potential liability issues the bill leads to with current property owners.
During the Monday hearing, Lynette Pendergast, president of the Realtors Association of Maui, said, “RAM remains gravely concerned that Bill 9 as currently drafted will negatively impact Maui’s economy, restrict property owners’ rights and result in insufficient reentry of housing units into the long-term market.”
However, Pendergast and other testifiers said that they did support cracking down more on illegal short-term rentals and increasing long-term housing.
The council is expected to make a decision on a companion bill this Friday with the recommendations from the temporary investigative group, which was set up to explore the impacts of Bill 9 before its implementation. For instance, the group recommended that about 4,500 units be able to apply for rezoning.
Maui’s existing housing crisis, and that across all of Hawaii, has been attributed to high interest rates, high prices and low supply, and the proliferation of TVRs, both legal and illegal.
Census data has shown more Native Hawaiians now live in the continental U.S. than in Hawaii. While reasons vary, the economy is said to be one of the largest impacts. At least 1,000 residents have left Maui since the fire, according to an analysis by officials from the Hawaii Department of Taxation released earlier this year. They join thousands of others who were born in Hawaii but now live in the continental U.S.
A recent report showed that 1 in 3 families consider moving out of state because of the high cost of living and lack of affordable housing.
“Bill 9 is about getting closer to a quality of life we promised our residents when we campaign every other year,” said Councilwoman Keani Rawlins-Fernandez, one of five officials who voted “yes” on the bill. “Profits are replaceable. Generational communities are not. ... This bill doesn’t just seek to do one thing. It intends to do all of the above: Reclaim housing, reining in tourism, conserve water, correct zoning, all of the above.”
She also highlighted the impact of the grassroots coalition Lahaina Strong, praising its persistent community engagement and the influence it had on this bill and other local legislation.
Led by fire survivors — many of whom are from families who have lived in Hawaii for generations — Lahaina Strong has become a movement with workers, housing advocates and other supporters, and have since organized rallies around creating long-term dignified housing, advocated for policy changes at the State Capitol, and launched campaigns to raise awareness about Maui’s challenges.
“This was a long road filled with many doubting our ability, and many sacrifices,” Lahaina Strong said in a news release following the decision. “But what carried us through was the unwavering commitment of our community. We built something powerful together and we are just getting started. ”
https://www.sfgate.com/hawaii/article/hawaii-maui-bill-nine-vacation-rentals-21244311.php
On Monday, Maui County Council passed historic legislation that aims to phase out over 6,200 transient vacation rentals, or TVRs, in West and South Maui.
Introduced in May 2024 by Mayor Richard Bissen, Bill 9 aims to increase the availability of long-term housing for local families amid a housing crisis that was exacerbated by the Lahaina wildfire, which destroyed more than 2,200 structures and displaced over 12,000 people.
Units in West Maui will need to be phased out by Jan. 1, 2029, with those in South Maui by Jan. 1, 2031. The units are part of the Minatoya List, which consists of transient vacation rentals located in apartment-zoned areas. These properties were built before 1989 and are grandfathered in under a permit exemption. Generally, TVRs are only permitted to operate in hotel-zoned areas.
Bissen signed the bill into law Monday afternoon.
“Rebalancing our housing market means we must return apartment-zoned housing to local families and residents—and that principle has guided our approach to Bill 9 from the very beginning,” said Mayor Bissen in a news release.
The move does not eliminate all of Maui’s short-term rentals. About 6,500 TVR parcels will still operate, alongside thousands of units in hotels, time-shares and bed-and-breakfasts, according to Maui County’s Real Property Tax Division.
Bissen also added that the journey of taking on powerful interests like the short-term rental industry wasn’t easy. “We’ve seen an influx of outside messaging driven by special interests attempting to influence our community through fear. But the facts matter,” he said, noting that 94% of the housing was owned by people outside Maui, and most are owned by people outside Hawaii, with TVRs taking up 21% of Maui’s entire housing inventory.
“Decisions about Maui’s housing should be guided by the needs of the people who live here—not by outside interests trying to protect profits,” he said.
The outside messaging Bissen was referring to involved D.C.-based group Progress Action, which ran thousands of dollars in attack ads against the bill in the months leading up to the hearings, according to Civil Beat.
For the past year, hundreds of people have spoken out, both in opposition and support, providing hours of emotional testimony on the bill, which divided fire survivors, housing advocates, property owners and those in the real estate industry.
Those in opposition often highlighted economic impacts such as job losses, steep declines in tax revenue, and the transient accommodation tax.
“Bill 9 represents a loss of roughly $65 million in real property taxes per year, along with an estimated $50 million in general excise tax and transient accommodations tax revenues,” said Council Vice-Chair Yuki Lei Sugimura, who voted “no” on the bill. “... The proposed solution is to offset those losses by raising taxes on who? You, the taxpayers, are going to be burdened with the tax losses.”
Bissen argued that this could be mitigated by diversifying the economy, public policy and strategic tax incentives that make the transition easier for owners and renters.
Other major tourist hubs, like Amsterdam, Barcelona and New York, have also enacted policies against short-term rentals, and tourism has grown, with people going to hotels instead, the county said.
Others in opposition spoke of the high cost of the units, and lack of suitability for long-term housing for families, since many are one- to three-bedroom units. However, data presented at an earlier hearing showed these types of units are in the highest demand.
There was also concern over the potential liability issues the bill leads to with current property owners.
During the Monday hearing, Lynette Pendergast, president of the Realtors Association of Maui, said, “RAM remains gravely concerned that Bill 9 as currently drafted will negatively impact Maui’s economy, restrict property owners’ rights and result in insufficient reentry of housing units into the long-term market.”
However, Pendergast and other testifiers said that they did support cracking down more on illegal short-term rentals and increasing long-term housing.
The council is expected to make a decision on a companion bill this Friday with the recommendations from the temporary investigative group, which was set up to explore the impacts of Bill 9 before its implementation. For instance, the group recommended that about 4,500 units be able to apply for rezoning.
Maui’s existing housing crisis, and that across all of Hawaii, has been attributed to high interest rates, high prices and low supply, and the proliferation of TVRs, both legal and illegal.
Census data has shown more Native Hawaiians now live in the continental U.S. than in Hawaii. While reasons vary, the economy is said to be one of the largest impacts. At least 1,000 residents have left Maui since the fire, according to an analysis by officials from the Hawaii Department of Taxation released earlier this year. They join thousands of others who were born in Hawaii but now live in the continental U.S.
A recent report showed that 1 in 3 families consider moving out of state because of the high cost of living and lack of affordable housing.
“Bill 9 is about getting closer to a quality of life we promised our residents when we campaign every other year,” said Councilwoman Keani Rawlins-Fernandez, one of five officials who voted “yes” on the bill. “Profits are replaceable. Generational communities are not. ... This bill doesn’t just seek to do one thing. It intends to do all of the above: Reclaim housing, reining in tourism, conserve water, correct zoning, all of the above.”
She also highlighted the impact of the grassroots coalition Lahaina Strong, praising its persistent community engagement and the influence it had on this bill and other local legislation.
Led by fire survivors — many of whom are from families who have lived in Hawaii for generations — Lahaina Strong has become a movement with workers, housing advocates and other supporters, and have since organized rallies around creating long-term dignified housing, advocated for policy changes at the State Capitol, and launched campaigns to raise awareness about Maui’s challenges.
“This was a long road filled with many doubting our ability, and many sacrifices,” Lahaina Strong said in a news release following the decision. “But what carried us through was the unwavering commitment of our community. We built something powerful together and we are just getting started. ”
https://www.sfgate.com/hawaii/article/hawaii-maui-bill-nine-vacation-rentals-21244311.php
11
Maga_Chaos_Monkey
2025 Dec 19, 10:34am
Maga_Chaos_Monkey
2025 Dec 19, 10:34am
Yeah, those units won't fix the housing crisis. I bet the people who bought my place are regretting it now, in particular now that the value dropped. These are for short term (developed for that in the early 70s) not for living in long term. Because of that I predict this law will be rolled back eventually (takings clause), as even the Mayor (former Judge) noted that it's illegal for them to do this but that they were going to do it anyway.
Owners know that renting to Hawaiians is putting someone in the unit who won't pay rent, will trash the place and they won't be able to remove them so they won't do it. I'm sure those that can't afford to keep them will sell and those that buy or who can afford to keep will just keep them off of the market. Prices should drop a lot. (Might be a good time soon to go buy another one a few blocks from the water)
I still chat with people who used to do work on my unit and they are struggling to find work / are not happy about this at all. Tourism has tanked - however given the extension I suspect it'll pick up again for the next few years. (People were afraid they'd lose their reservation)
double talk: article suggests it'll increase tourism and also it's to rein in tourism lol...
They just want high spending tourists to take shuttles to shitty hotels and to not get rental cars. People are used to rental cars and much nicer short term rentals that are more affordable.
Glad I gitted while the gittin was good!
Originally this was going to hit this coming summer so the new phase out is interesting. Ultimately it's the government colluding with the hotel industry.
Owners know that renting to Hawaiians is putting someone in the unit who won't pay rent, will trash the place and they won't be able to remove them so they won't do it. I'm sure those that can't afford to keep them will sell and those that buy or who can afford to keep will just keep them off of the market. Prices should drop a lot. (Might be a good time soon to go buy another one a few blocks from the water)
I still chat with people who used to do work on my unit and they are struggling to find work / are not happy about this at all. Tourism has tanked - however given the extension I suspect it'll pick up again for the next few years. (People were afraid they'd lose their reservation)
double talk: article suggests it'll increase tourism and also it's to rein in tourism lol...
They just want high spending tourists to take shuttles to shitty hotels and to not get rental cars. People are used to rental cars and much nicer short term rentals that are more affordable.
Glad I gitted while the gittin was good!
Originally this was going to hit this coming summer so the new phase out is interesting. Ultimately it's the government colluding with the hotel industry.
I've never seen Maui like this. Supposed to be the off season.
I guess I shouldn't be surprised. I've increased my rent anywhere from 50% to 100% starting in Jan of this year due to the demand and am booked until March next year.
But still...
The past few weeks I started getting used to grocery shopping without fogging up my glasses. Yeah, I need those the past few years. Used to have great vision. Fucking hot and humid and have to shop with the goddamn face fabric.
Also. I can tell how fat covid made me lol... At least I float better.