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Bay Area housing... what is going to happen?
invite response
2020 May 22, 5:32pm 6,443 views 69 comments
by krc ➕follow (0) 💰tip ignore
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59
just_passing_through
2020 Jun 16, 7:25pm
just_passing_through
2020 Jun 16, 7:25pm
Maybe... If I were a tech company owner I'd just think I'd be able to afford more employees for less. Bay area fills back up but I have an outlay now. Bay area report doesn't like lower pay, "You're fired!", ... continues to expand the outlay.
60
EBGuy
2020 Jul 1, 5:56pm
just_dregalicious says
Ess Eff Case Shiller Home Price Index hit a new high in April, up 0.7% month-to-month. Doubtful that there is much gas left in the tank, but we may have one more month of gains (where the previous two months do the heavy lifting).
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-announcements/article/annual-home-price-gains-remained-steady-in-april-according-to-sp-corelogic-case-shiller-index/
It won't.
Ess Eff Case Shiller Home Price Index hit a new high in April, up 0.7% month-to-month. Doubtful that there is much gas left in the tank, but we may have one more month of gains (where the previous two months do the heavy lifting).
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-announcements/article/annual-home-price-gains-remained-steady-in-april-according-to-sp-corelogic-case-shiller-index/
61
AD
2020 Jul 1, 6:39pm
AD
2020 Jul 1, 6:39pm
.
Ceffer says
It is based on how much they motivated or desperate they are to sell.
You could get a retiree couple who live off of social security and a small pension that could tap into the equity of their California bungalow (+$650,000) and planning on living the rest of their lives there. If not able to get a home equity line of credit (HELOC) then they may get a reverse mortgage.
.
Ceffer says
A couple of pricy shacks in Santa Cruz haven't sold for a couple of months in places where they usually fly off the market.
It is based on how much they motivated or desperate they are to sell.
You could get a retiree couple who live off of social security and a small pension that could tap into the equity of their California bungalow (+$650,000) and planning on living the rest of their lives there. If not able to get a home equity line of credit (HELOC) then they may get a reverse mortgage.
.
62
just_passing_through
2020 Jul 1, 6:45pm
just_passing_through
2020 Jul 1, 6:45pm
EBGuy says
Yeah, I saw that on a few RE pro utube channels. They all called it misguided and misreported as per what to expect in the future.
Reason being it's a rolling average that only takes into account the first half of April. Goes all the way back to February. People were closing in April on properties they started to purchase at or before the shut down.
I expect the next 2 Case Shillers to look different although maybe not yet due to all the fucking free money.
ss Eff Case Shiller Home Price Index hit a new high in April, up 0.7% month-to-month. Doubtful that there is much gas left in the tank, but we may have one more month of gains (where the previous two months do the heavy lifting).
Yeah, I saw that on a few RE pro utube channels. They all called it misguided and misreported as per what to expect in the future.
Reason being it's a rolling average that only takes into account the first half of April. Goes all the way back to February. People were closing in April on properties they started to purchase at or before the shut down.
I expect the next 2 Case Shillers to look different although maybe not yet due to all the fucking free money.
64
Hircus
2020 Jul 22, 9:52am
Hircus
2020 Jul 22, 9:52am
I keep hearing people who live in rural locations that are not too far from dense urban cities say that homes in their rural neighborhood are selling rapidly due to new demand from those fleeing liberal wonderlands. I've seen 3 different unconnected people say this in the past 2 weeks. These were all pacific NW.
I'm guessing those who have a rural property are scared of the videos they see, and want to hold on to their sanctuary. Sensible people in big cities are snapping up the few that go on the market.
It's hard to find data confirming this though, likely because the fleeing citizens probably reached tipping point just a few weeks ago after seeing the riots not get solved.
I'm guessing those who have a rural property are scared of the videos they see, and want to hold on to their sanctuary. Sensible people in big cities are snapping up the few that go on the market.
It's hard to find data confirming this though, likely because the fleeing citizens probably reached tipping point just a few weeks ago after seeing the riots not get solved.
65
BayArea
2020 Jul 22, 10:46am
BayArea
2020 Jul 22, 10:46am
Bay Area housing is on FIRE
Low interest rates, stimulus, low inventory
Low interest rates, stimulus, low inventory
66
Ceffer
2020 Jul 22, 11:00am
Ceffer
2020 Jul 22, 11:00am
Shouldn't the Great Socialist Paradise urban shit holes be machine gunning the refugees as they try to flee to the suburbs? It's just not right to escape the all knowing, tender loving care of progressive progress!
67
Onvacation
2020 Jul 27, 4:41am
Onvacation
2020 Jul 27, 4:41am
BayArea says
I hear Oakland, Seattle and Portland are on fire too.
Bay Area housing is on FIRE
Low interest rates, stimulus, low inventory
I hear Oakland, Seattle and Portland are on fire too.
68
Al_Sharpton_for_President
2020 Jul 27, 5:34am
Al_Sharpton_for_President
2020 Jul 27, 5:34am
Onvacation says
I hear Oakland, Seattle and Portland are on fire too.Condo prices seem to be dropping in Seattle city proper. But Eastside home prices are doing quite well. Commuting from Ithe Eastside into Seattle is a bitch and not getting any better, but wth folks working at home, no problema. The area has always been home to Redmond based Microsofties, which has propped up home prices. Woodinville has a very nice winery area and when the Covid war ends, Chateau Ste. MIchelle will once again host their summer concert series. If you have the coin, you can even own a lake view home on the Eastside. And ganja no problema.
69
EBGuy
2020 Jul 29, 2:34pm
The S&P Case/Shiller Ess Eff Bay Area Home Price Index slipped 0.2% in May (weighted 3 month average). Assume the crash position.
« First « Previous Comments 59 - 69 of 69 Search these comments
1) Perhaps millions square feet of commercial real estate will convert to apartments and condos? Hard to see how commercial prices hold up when many companies are comfortable with majority of workforce working from home. Already FB has scaled down its recent buildout proposal by 30%. Will that pressure real estate downward?
2) Fortress areas were typically those areas with good school districts - immune to most downturns. What most parents failed to realize is that the state government has gone to a different model for school funding (Local Control Funding - under Brown) - which is actually not local control at all but a diversion of local taxes to a general pool where funds are allocated based on need. Most states fund students equally - but that is not California. As a result, even previously strong districts (performance) are not receiving nearly the funding in years past. Ironically, funding doesn't necessarily have anything to do with results; nevertheless, it is hard to believe these once revered districts can compensate for the drastic reduction. Basically, schools that get funded are those with high numbers of illegals and those eligible for school lunches. Rich folks seem to believe they are paying taxes to support their "local" school - but that is not true except in the most general sense.
3) Encampments in most major cities that mar the general public use. I am not happy trying to go anywhere near Civic Center now. It was a cesspool before - it is even worse now.
4) Overbearing government control over daily life (state is very slow to re-open)
5) Continued NIMBYism that uses Covid-19 to restrict non-locals from visiting beaches, enjoying parks, and so forth. Of course, this also helps those who are rich and settled to not move if they can keep the "low life" out and enjoy a better quality of life. (Note - Tahoe area still restricting short term rentals and discouraging "second home owners" from visiting, Santa Cruz fining out of town interlopers).
6) Telework has proven that remote teams can work successfully. For me, I think a 3-office/2-home day week is ideal, but it seems some are comfortable never interacting in person with their teammates.
7) Mass transit is a riskier way of traveling in the post covid-19 world. Will that mean a flight to suburban and rural areas where density is less?
Thoughts?
Any time I think housing will go down, I am reminded of IWog who always felt that housing would stay strong after the crash and used that downturn to buy properties at a ridiculous price. His main point is that US housing is cheap by international standards and will always be a place that is a comparably better investment than london/tokyo/moscow/etc...