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Coronavirus toll could be up to 0.0003 of the US population!


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2020 Mar 29, 9:38pm   20,094 views  376 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (61)   💰tip   ignore  

PANIC!

Wait, 3 percent of 1 percent?

Yes, 100 times smaller than 3 percent.

Say 100,000 die out of 300M people (actually, the population is even larger than that). That's 0.0003.

So, since 0.0086 of the US dies every year on average, this could bump up the US death rate by 3 / 86 = 3.5% this year.

Except not it wouldn't even be that much, because a large fraction of those who die weren't going to make it through a normal 2020 anyway.

It's still not at all clear that this was worth imploding the economy for. Remember that 81,000 died of the flu in 2018 and no one even blinked.

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277   AD   2020 May 17, 1:34pm  

.

Colorado Governor states CDC is over counting number of COVID-19 deaths. Colorado previously had reported 1,150 people died from COVID-19, but late Friday, officials changed that number to 878.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/colorado-gov-pushes-back-against-cdcs-coronavirus-death-counts

.
278   MisdemeanorRebel   2020 May 17, 1:35pm  

The Times found 14 states where more than half of total deaths occurred in facilities for the elderly. It was 55 percent in Connecticut, 57 percent in Colorado, North Carolina and Kentucky, 58 percent in Virginia, 59 percent in Massachusetts, 61 percent in Delaware, 66 percent in Pennsylvania, 73 percent in Rhode Island and 80 percent in West Virginia and Minnesota.

The states with the most nursing-home deaths, New York and New Jersey, didn’t make the list because of so many other deaths, yet more than 10,000 people died in their facilities. The 5,500 nursing-home deaths in New York are more than the total deaths in all other states except New Jersey.

https://nypost.com/2020/05/16/blame-governors-for-coronavirus-deaths-in-nursing-homes-goodwin/?utm_source=twitter_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons
279   Patrick   2020 May 17, 8:36pm  

Posted for a reader:

assuming that the effective death rate for those contracting COVID is 1.3% (5 times the seasonal flu rate) of the population, as reported as numerous websites, this means that even those getting it fall into a range of infirmities between asymptomatic and fatal, and that 98.3 percent survive it. This is an extremely high survival rate for a "pandemic"

Moreover, only a small proportion of Americans get it to begin with, and I don't really know reliable data for calculating what the likelihood is for even getting it

I do not think it is a hoax, and I think that the sensationalistic press (as opposed to liberal press), or billionaires with large short positions, and bureaucrats with a desire to enhance their status and receive more funding for their programs, and more corporations who have an interest to learn to what degree they can order customers around in their stores, or Democratic Party strategists seeking to embarass Trump, have an interest in promoting the narrative of pending doom and disaster.

My view, very bluntly stated, is that I would rather have /4 Million/ Americans die from it (the outcome if it adhered to this average) that one dolphin or whale be strangled by inhaling a surgical mask or the non-reusable bag from Smart & Final. It would be OK if I were one of them.

Humans have grossly overpopulated the earth, and a range of disastrous consequences are going to follow, from the consequences of consumer consumption, insane energy consumption, and a host of other behaviors humanity needs to radically reverse. COVID is Mother Nature's first gentle warning. Much worse things are coming down the pike.

I know what you don't believe this, but there is no point in getting into a big back-and-forth about it.

As I said, I'm headed for Idaho, where I will become a potato and hide in the soil (wink)
280   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   2020 May 17, 8:47pm  

The media has been an absolute abomination during the Covid “pandemic”.

If there’s one thing that happens as a result, I hope that the legacy media goes under. Those assholes need to be out of business and their staff needs to find a new line of work.
281   Patrick   2020 May 17, 9:11pm  

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says
Those assholes need to be out of business and their staff needs to find a new line of work.


I'm convinced that they are not in business at all anymore.

They can lose as much money as they like, and will simply get funded more.

The mainstream media exists only as a political tool now, funded by billionaires like Bezos.

Their function is about the same as Pravda's used to be.
282   MisdemeanorRebel   2020 May 17, 9:37pm  

ThreeBays says
As if Patrick actually had a model and not a baseless theory that C19 is no worse than a bad flu.


Is COVID tracked the same way the Flu is? Or are the standards of measurement and reporting different?

Thanks.
283   WookieMan   2020 May 18, 5:27am  

logic says
Show the verifiable proof. But you don't have verifiable proof which was the point of my comment.

🤷‍♂️ Reading? I have the proof. I'm not going to jeopardize people's careers that gave me the information. I've said this before (2nd time now). You don't have to believe me, clearly you don't. That's fine. I'm 100% correct, so keep arguing about something you don't know about.

logic says
Or what if the doctor thought the patient would have lived another year or was about to declare remission?

https://www.cancer.net/cancer-types/pancreatic-cancer/statistics
You have a better chance of actually dying from COVID alone, than survive a pancreatic cancer diagnosis. 47k die from it each year. Also, not sure how auto accidents got into this. Never made the conspiracy theory claim auto accidents and gun deaths are being labeled COVID. I'm talking chronic conditions. I'm sure there's no chance any of these specific cancer deaths were labeled COVID, like zero chance. Right? Sorry I cannot trash people's lives with evidence to make you happy, but you've also presented zero evidence to counter my claims. If you're so sure deaths are being accurately recorded, prove it....
284   mell   2020 May 18, 7:32am  

logic says
WookieMan says

What the fuck do you want me to do?


Show the verifiable proof. But you don't have verifiable proof which was the point of my comment. You have hearsay at best. What you most certainly don't have is any proof that is verifiable.


If you severely restrict people's civil liberties and pursuit of happiness in a possibly unconstitutional way then the burden is on you to exactly detail and lay out the stats comparing all the other causes of death, incl. those that will be missed due to people not going to the hospital or MD now the best you can and it better shows in an ironclad way that Covid-19 deaths would largely surpass all these other causes of death if we did nothing. We all know the truth is the opposite, that the lockdowns only marginally changed death statistics, so I consider this akin to a coup or at least unconstitutional power grab.
285   Shaman   2020 May 18, 7:40am  

Patrick says
The mainstream media exists only as a political tool now, funded by billionaires like Bezos.


And funded by the CIA, Big Pharma, Health Insurance, the Military Industrial Complex, and large corporations like Monsanto. They “sell ads” to these entities which is why we have to watch a meaningless ad from Monsanto when we have zero chance of ever buying their seed in bulk. Monsanto wants the news Corp to say favorable things or at least spin the news to keep heat off them, and the ad is their way of paying for it.
286   marcus   2020 May 18, 10:14am  

marcus says
Misc says
Yes, cancer deaths, pneumonia deaths, deaths from the flu, and deaths from heart issues are all down and can be attributed to blindly ascribing Covid as the cause of death.


Interesting. Would you please share source(s) on this ?


www.youtube.com/embed/K8E_zMLCRNg
287   mell   2020 May 18, 12:41pm  

logic says
mell says
If you severely restrict people's civil liberties and pursuit of happiness in a possibly unconstitutional way then the burden is on you to exactly detail and lay out the stats comparing all the other causes of death,


Lol, "you", who? Me? How the fuck am I doing that. Please tell me. I'm not the president of the United States, I'm not the one failing to bring this country together. Obama, a black man, did that 17% better than Trump.

If people say they have "verifiable proof" either they have it or they don't. The key word is verifiable. If I can't verify it how is it verifiable. Words matter. Like I said I don't care that much just calling people out on their bullshit. It will be interesting to look back in a year and look at how the numbers worked out but until then, I call bullshit unless anyone wants to provide better proof than subtracting a baseline. Show me the num...


The people who take away civil rights need to have verifiable proof but they don't. Sure you can ask for proof from the other side but it's not their burden as they're not infringing on millions of people and their livelihoods.

thomasdong1776 says
logic says
It will be interesting to look back in a year and look at how the numbers worked out


Of course all the PatNetters who now insist the virus is little more than a cold and that the mortality numbers are made up to make Trump look bad will all change their screen names then so they can't be held accountable for their bullshit.


Don't be daft you can do the math already. Most models agree that by now around 20%-25% have been exposed, we're only testing those with symptoms and severe cases. Of course you will have a lot of deaths with a new highly contagious virus where there's no vaccine. But the mortality rate is similar to that one of the flu, pretty much all experts agree on this by now. If you count flu deaths 24/7 365 days per year you get close to a 100k every year as well.

Nobody has said the virus is a hoax, or that it's not a bad situation, but it's not unprecedented and we have never reacted like this before to a bad flu pandemic, not in 2018, not in 2009, not in 1969. and the lives of people lost not being able to go to the hospital or too scared to do so or visit their MD and adding in those dying from suicide, depression, drug use due to grim economic outlook will by far surpass the deaths from Covid-19 in years to come. It's already happening all over the place, heart disease or cancer caught too late. You can ask any MD who you're friends with and they will tell you off the record that it's been happening, their hospitals are empty and that this situation is worse than Covid-19.
288   Onvacation   2020 May 18, 2:32pm  

logic says
Show me the numbers otherwise it's not truth it's bullshit.

We were told we had to shut down and flatten the curve or millions would die. We shut down, flattened the curve, and < 100k died. There is your numbers.

Time to open up.
289   mell   2020 May 18, 3:12pm  

That proves my point nobody said it's a hoax. The virus will disappear one day that's a fact, that day may be soon or far out but the curves are already massively going down. The coverage it has gotten certainly is a hoax perpetrated by the Demonrats and CNNMSNPC. No doubt about it if you compare it to the coverage of past flu pandemics/epidemics.
290   MisdemeanorRebel   2020 May 18, 3:37pm  

Even if the press are a bunch of bohemian bourgeois who consider themselves international citizens of the world and don't give two shits about the USA beyond a history of slavery?

I think half a century of managing the press makes him qualified.

The media hated Nixon, Reagan, dubya too. The only republican they tolerated was CIA NWO operative elder Bush, and even then they preferred Clinton by a mile.
291   MisdemeanorRebel   2020 May 18, 3:45pm  

Covid is being overcounted, as there is a fiscal and political incentive to do so.

If we used German standards, the death rate would be at least half of what it is.

It's also interesting that ultimate power seems to change with the subject. Not more than a few weeks ago, that vaunted press was insisting POTUS couldn't force states to open.

Yet, it's also trying to keep Trump as the most responsible, ridiculously.

Can't have it both ways.

If the govenors are the primary actors, then Cuomo bears a huge chunk of responsibility and has to explain why his death rate are far higher than Florida or Texas.
292   socal2   2020 May 18, 4:10pm  

logic says
Time to place the blame squarely where it should be, on the president.


What blame specifically?

Should Trump be blamed that New York and New Jersey were shit shows responsible for most of the country's coronavirus deaths by shutting down too late, refusing to sanitize the subways until last week and sending Covid patients back into nursing homes?
293   socal2   2020 May 18, 5:23pm  

logic says
Last I checked he was the president and at the beginning he denied there was a problem, now some how that's new York's fault?


Trump and the Federal Government are responsible for cleaning New York subway cars?

If only Trump could have been more authoritarian and was able to quarantine America's own wet market back in February?

*"New York Gov. Cuomo says Trump has no authority to impose quarantine: ‘It would be illegal’"*
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/28/ny-gov-cuomo-says-trump-has-no-authority-to-impose-quarantine.html
294   WookieMan   2020 May 18, 6:24pm  

Just stop guys. You're getting trolled. It's an airborne virus, anyone blaming it on any individual is slightly retarded. The politics came out and it's obvious. I'd stop wasting time.
295   WookieMan   2020 May 18, 6:28pm  

jazz_music says
And don’t forget Trump made Obama show a birth certificate yet Trump doesn’t show his tax filing.

Being POTUS has requirements. None of which have ever involved tax returns. Not sure your point.
296   MisdemeanorRebel   2020 May 18, 8:28pm  

logic says
Unfortunately I won't be taking some random individuals word for it. Got any links Marcus and I would love to see them.


Merry Xmas:



At the same time, the state’s coroners — tasked with investigating suspicious deaths — have grown increasingly frustrated by the Health Department’s reluctance to seek their help.


Some have said the department’s numbers did not match what coroners were seeing. Those concerns caught the attention of State Sen. Judy Ward (R., Blair), who is advocating for a bill that would give coroners a bigger role in the crisis.

“There’s a discrepancy in the numbers,” Charles E. Kiessling Jr., president of the Pennsylvania Coroners Association and coroner in Lycoming County, said Thursday. “I’m not saying there’s something going on.... I’m not a conspiracy theory guy. But accuracy is important.”

It’s a matter of public safety, Kiessling said.

The confusion began Sunday, when Pennsylvania raised its coronavirus death toll to 1,112 — an increase of 276 overnight. On Tuesday, the department reported another spike, from 1,204 to 1,564 deaths.


In both cases, Levine said the surges reflected deaths that occurred days, even weeks, in the past.

“These deaths did not happen overnight,” Levine said Sunday.

The jump that day, first blamed on a computer glitch, was explained as a “reconciliation” of multiple reporting systems
and the “culmination of that data-validating effort.” Levine also said the “significant increase” included “probable positive” COVID-19 deaths, as well as deaths confirmed with a test.

On Tuesday, Levine reported 300 probable deaths in the day’s count but appeared to indicate the situation was new.

“We will now be reporting probable deaths related to COVID-19 in addition to confirmed deaths,” she said.

That same day, department spokesperson Nate Wardle told Spotlight PA some probable deaths had been included in the count for at least a week or maybe longer.

Then, on Wednesday, Wardle backtracked, saying that although probable deaths had been added to the reporting systems as of April 13, the day before federal guidance changed, they weren’t included in the state’s official count until Tuesday.


https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/spl/pennsylvania-death-count-changes-confusion-coroanvirus-20200423.html

No surprise here. Like "Dr" (PhD in Social Policy) Ferrer of LA, the Public Health departments are full of Social (Justice) Workers and Bureaucrats with bupkiss actual medical or science credentials.

Ramp up those numbers!

Idiots don't see it's gonna backfire right on them.
297   MisdemeanorRebel   2020 May 18, 8:31pm  

What's funny is that some on this board are mad at "Far Right Wingers"

@WookieMan was one of the most moderate members of the Forum. Now it's pretty clear he's not voting Blue this year.

Was it the Pat.net right wingers, or the Dem-Media malarky?
298   MisdemeanorRebel   2020 May 18, 8:33pm  

socal2 says
*"New York Gov. Cuomo says Trump has no authority to impose quarantine: ‘It would be illegal’"*
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/28/ny-gov-cuomo-says-trump-has-no-authority-to-impose-quarantine.html


Trump has no authority here! I am in Command!

It's all Trump's Fault!
299   MisdemeanorRebel   2020 May 18, 8:51pm  

logic says


A great leader wouldn't be having these problems. Trump might have a few of these qualities but not enough to be considered a great leader. Check out #20.
He definitely lacks that.


I don't think you're getting my point.

You can't claim one day that all the authority rests with the Governors, then a few days later put all the blame on the President.

Well, you can, but it looks ridiculous.

That list above is rubbish. You simply have to be both Fox and Lion. Many leaders have no humility, for example, and pretty much almost all leaders in history would have laughed at Transparency and said you need just the opposite - Obfuscation.
300   Onvacation   2020 May 18, 10:14pm  

logic says
Yet Obama was always at fault 😂 sad

Agreed! He was the worse fucking president ever. He never prosecuted the bankers and ran that insurance scam.

Severe sufferers of TDS think that if you don't hate Trump you support everything he does. Take a pill.

301   WookieMan   2020 May 19, 5:24am  

logic says
Lol, @wookieman who is blaming an airborne virus on an individual? Do you know what a straw man argument is?

Interesting, I never referenced you. Never said the word you or used your username in my comment. Why would you think it was directed at you? I'm also not sure why you're arguing about arguments. Seems silly.
302   WookieMan   2020 May 19, 7:21am  

logic says
logic says
Lol, @wookieman who is blaming an airborne virus on an individual? Do you know what a straw man argument is?

Interesting, I never referenced you. Never said the word you or used your username in my comment. Why would you think it was directed at you? I'm also not sure why you're arguing about arguments. Seems silly.


I'm a bit confused. Did you not say someone was trolling? One who is arguing that Trump started the virus? Sorry if I misunderstood this.

You called out my username. You asked a question that was clearly directed at my comment. Why? If you didn't think it was about you, why respond with my username? Why respond at all? Why do you need or want to know who it was directed at? We're not supposed to talk about other users here, which I didn't.

There are easily a handful of people in this thread that disagree with my view on this virus and what I'm saying. It's cute that you assume I was talking about you. Maybe I meant multiple people. Maybe I meant people in general that troll this topic, but not on this board/forum. I'm not going to directly call a user of this forum a troll. Not taking the bait.

You seem to be upset that maybe, just maybe we're right that COVID deaths are being over reported. NoCoup gave you a link. You then shifted to Trump being a shit leader and not addressing actual evidence that it's being categorized poorly or intentionally reported wrong. We can talk about "straw man" all day instead of just acknowledging the actual fact COVID deaths aren't accurate.

We somehow have 20X's the deaths of China with a 1/4 of the population. We're 3X's higher than the nearest country in overall deaths. Either the rest of the world is bull shitting stats or we are. We are the outlier in the data by a long shot. It's strange to see people bash their own government so hard, yet trust the data that it puts out on this virus. Strange, isn't it?
303   Patrick   2020 May 19, 7:50am  

Onvacation says
Severe sufferers of TDS think that if you don't hate Trump you support everything he does. Take a pill.


Good insight.

Yes, somehow they think it's binary and have no room for subtlety.
304   WookieMan   2020 May 19, 8:13am  

logic says
Time to place the blame squarely where it should be, on the president.


logic says
logic says
I question why you say someone is making an argument that is obviously not being made.


WookieMan says
It's an airborne virus, anyone blaming it on any individual is slightly retarded.


It wasn't directed at you, but I suppose I could see why you thought that way now....
305   WookieMan   2020 May 19, 8:17am  

jazz_music says
Still don’t see a point here?

No. Tax returns are not required. Being a US citizen is. It's more than fair, well technically legal, to make sure our POTUS is a US citizen.

I'm not agreeing with the way Trump went about it by any means, but he technically had every right to question his citizenry. That's pretty much indisputable. So I still don't understand your point... Just say you didn't like how Trump asked about a legal factor in becoming POTUS. Not sure what tax returns have to do with it.
306   Onvacation   2020 May 19, 8:27am  

logic says
those 2 arguments are not the same. It appears to me that you are trying to say a user is making an argument that they are not and I am calling you out on that. Is that not allowed?

Quack! Quack!
307   Onvacation   2020 May 19, 8:29am  

logic says
. I find it odd that if this came from china the east coast has been hit the hardest.

When you put sick contagious people in nursing homes with people that have a lot of comorbidities what would you expect?

If I were a conspiracy theorist I might think it was planned.
308   WookieMan   2020 May 19, 10:15am  

logic says
Why say someone is making an argument they are not making?


logic says
Last I checked he was the president and at the beginning he denied there was a problem, now some how that's new York's fault? It's sad that some are so deranged that they can't find Trump at fault for anything, it's always someone else's fault.


You are clearly acting like it's Trump's fault for an airborne virus. I'm not sure how else this could be interpreted? I don't get the disconnect here. These are your own words???... are they not? You keep defending something like you didn't say it.

It's a virus. Trump, Bush, Obama, etc. ain't gonna stop it. It's going to kill who it's going to kill. But hey, Trump bad.
309   socal2   2020 May 19, 10:33am  

WookieMan says
It's a virus. Trump, Bush, Obama, etc. ain't gonna stop it. It's going to kill who it's going to kill. But hey, Trump bad.


It would be one thing if the US was doing uniquely bad compared to other Western Countries in Wuhan AIDS fatalities.

If we removed Cuomo and DeBlasio's fuck-ups in New York, America would be the envy of the world in combating this Pandemic.



310   WookieMan   2020 May 19, 11:42am  

logic says
I am saying Trump is a terrible leader and he responded poorly to the virus. I never once said that he is responsible for the virus

These are the same. You're implying that the spread could have been prevented by an individual. I never once said you think Trump created (or is responsible) for the virus. My reaction has been to the fact you think Trump or any POTUS had/has control over the spread of an airborne virus. The reaction by Trump has zero bearing on the spread as we've seen with multiple countries. But you've mentioned Trump multiple time. It's an airborne virus, has nothing to do with individual people and decisions made.
311   WookieMan   2020 May 19, 11:47am  

For fuck's sake, look at Socal's graph above? What other country would you live in that's not on that list? Most first world countries are dealing with this worse than the US (aka Trump in your world). I'm questioning our own stats with information that I know to be true and the reaction is Trump bad (I never brought him up) with no other evidence. I'm at a loss at this point with your logic.
312   WookieMan   2020 May 19, 1:13pm  

logic says
It didn't offer any real proof of over counting just that it is unclear if it is happening or not.

Just admit there's not ever going to be proof for you. The theater is on fire and you're the one guy still talking about yelling fire in a crowded theater when it is in fact on fire. It's a stubborn stance when there's evidence out there, actual, anecdotal and hearsay. You're under the assumption everyone is lying to you. I'm not sure what the gain is on some random internet forum. I have zero reason to lie and every reason to protect my friendships and careers by NOT posting evidence here.

logic says
I'm not going to find it but I've said how much debt we have incurred under Trump.

I hate debt. Throwing money at lazy people is the worst possible option. We would have been better off letting 400k die as that would have saved money long term. Being dead serious given the demo of who is dying from this. It's harsh, but the people dying are draining the economy outside of healthcare. Their deaths are a positive.

logic says
Now you have called me a retard for the second time (first time was the tax argument). I'm dyslexic I've had difficulty with reading and writing my whole life. I write here because it's good practice.


I don't recall calling you a retard directly. My apologies if you took it that way. Also, if you have some ailment, I'm obviously not aware of it, so again, my apologies if I offended. Not my intention.

Your statements/comments have shifted from virus concerns to blaming Trump for the reaction. There is no "right" reaction to an airborne virus. There's no proof that decision x, y or z would have changed the trajectory. It's not possible. We have different countries, different health care systems, densities, demographics, etc. Even 2 years from now we're not going to have a clear picture. People have bias' and agendas. To think you'll ever know the truth is futile when so much of the data can be manipulated.
313   socal2   2020 May 19, 1:18pm  

logic says
That you assumed I was talking about lives lost is not on me. I'm talking about wealth loss. But somehow his slow and terrible response is everyone else's fault.


Seems like some major goal post shifting here.

All of the government's lockdowns were justified under the reasoning of saving lives and giving our hospitals time to prepare and stock up on PPE and ventilators.

Besides, the biggest wealth lost is coming from Democrat run Blue States that have enacted the strictest and longest lockdowns like California, Washington, Oregon, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Connecticut....
315   georgeliberte   2020 May 19, 2:30pm  

Seems like some major goal post shifting here.
All of the government's lock downs were justified under the reasoning of saving lives and giving our hospitals time to prepare and stock up on PPE and ventilators.
Besides, the biggest wealth lost is coming from Democrat run Blue States that have enacted the strictest and longest lockdowns like California, Washington, Oregon, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Connecticut....
I agree and add that several beloved blue ideas are endangered by COVID-19:
Reusable grocery bags
mass transit
high density housing (or anything else)
PLEASE ADD TO THE LIST
316   Nobody   2020 May 19, 4:20pm  

Chinese would like you to believe this is caused by Trump and US. CNN would like to blame Trump. WHO would like you to believe Chinese did everything right. And President Trump went against the advise of WHO to block the Chinese. And CNN and Washington Post called him racist. Don't forget CNN stands for Chinese News Network. Do you know how many Chinese editors work for these companies? It is not funny.

Now, Chinese government is calling Trump racist for blaming Chinese government for cover up.

I don't get why we blame President Trump? Because CNN and Washington Post and New York Time had manipulate the people's opinion by deception and withholding information from the public. And it is working. It is sickening.

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