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Epidemiologist Virus Model WRONG!!!!!!!!!!! HAHAHAH !!!!!!!!


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2020 Mar 26, 10:11am   3,881 views  44 comments

by joshuatrio   ➕follow (4)   💰tip   ignore  

"Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments.

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000."

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

WHAT THE HELL!??!?? AND THE MEDIA IS STILL PUSHING PANIC OVER THIS????

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41   EBGuy   2020 Mar 27, 5:52pm  

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostakovitch says
Right, again, the story of any success in this domain is underwritten by compliance.

And I thought those Disney wristbands were creepy. The lady cast member at the entrance to the Happiest Place on Earth tried to tell me they weren't "taking my fingerprint" but were actually "gathering biometric data".
Looks like Hong Kong now gives out a blue tooth wristband and a Stay Home Safe app (no joke, see accompanying article in SCMP) upon arrival to enforce a 14 day quarantine (fearless leader Patrick, they're doing it).
The Office of the Government Chief Information Officer (OGCIO) said the new Bluetooth wristbands would be in use from Wednesday at the airport, but only for those entering Hong Kong from Europe or the United States. “The electronic wristband itself has a tracking function and when paired with the mobile app, it provides an extra guarantee the person is in fact at home,” said Victor Lam Wai-kiu, the Government Chief Information Officer. As the wristbands are connected to the wearers’ mobile phones via Bluetooth, Lam said it would enable the authorities to know if they had left their houses once it was out of range or if the users attempted to leave their phones at home.
42   Patrick   2020 Mar 27, 7:42pm  

EBGuy says
Looks like Hong Kong now gives out a blue tooth wristband and a Stay Home Safe app (no joke, see accompanying article in SCMP) upon arrival to enforce a 14 day quarantine (fearless leader Patrick, they're doing it).


No, no fucking wristband. Lame. You can still walk around anywhere.

You fly to or from China, you stay in a nice but special hotel room for 24 or 48 hours. It's probably enough to check you for zillions of possible infections, latent or not.
43   EBGuy   2020 Mar 30, 4:29pm  

Patrick says
No, no fucking wristband. Lame. You can still walk around anywhere.

If you leave your home, the app notifies authorities. Maybe future versions of the wristband can deliver periodic electric shocks when you leave your geofenced zone. "Honey, don't turn off the bluetooth speaker. No, really, don't! Ahhhh!!!!"
Hong Kong is using tracker wristbands to geofence people under coronavirus quarantine
“As you walk around the home, the algorithm on the app will sample the signals of the home,” said Chan, who is also a professor of computer science and engineering at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Each home has a unique set of communications signals, including your own WiFi network, WiFi from nearby, Bluetooth, and cellular networks. As the user walks around the apartment, the app creates what Chan described as a “composite signature of the home.” If someone tries to breach the quarantine by leaving their home, the app triggers a warning and alerts the government. Anyone violating their quarantine could face up to six months in prison and a fine of up to HK$25,000 ($3,200).
44   Patrick   2020 Mar 30, 6:01pm  

EBGuy says
If you leave your home, the app notifies authorities.


Good point.

But that's way creepier than just saying in a nice hotel room for a day or two.

There really should be mandatory short quarantines and medical testing for everyone who crosses a national border.

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