patrick.net

This is what happens when you hire a Global Warming expert as an epidemiologist.

Trump is going to expose our Medical system, and the Agencies that regulate them.
After this healthcare in this country will be cheaper, and more effective.
It should be illegal for any Government official or their family to invest in any Healthcare related vertical.

There is already a thousand dead in the US and this is just started, doubling every 3 days.
I think some people are a bit math challenged.

Heraclitusstudent says

There is already a thousand dead in the US and this is just started, doubling every 3 days.
I think some people are a bit math challenged.

Sounds like you are hoping for the worst.

Using simple math, his revised numbers would put US deaths from 2.2 million, down to around 88,000.

That's FAR from 2.2 million.

And like all of the other data suggests, it will primarily affect older people with pre-existing health conditions, who would also likely have a hard time with the flu, pneumonia etc...

Per the CDC, the FLU alone kills 23,000-59,000 people per year in the USA alone. We should not be shutting down the economy. Period.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

Rather than shut down the economy, have the high risk people QUARANTINE themselves.

Heraclitusstudent says

There is already a thousand dead in the US and this is just started, doubling every 3 days.
I think some people are a bit math challenged.

What is your number, then? More than Ferguson's? Less?

joshuatrio says

And like all of the other data suggests, it will primarily affect older people with pre-existing health conditions, who would also likely have a hard time with the flu, pneumonia etc...

Many of those old people are at death's door and if they don't die of COVID-19 in April, they'll die of Bronchitis in May.

Heraclitusstudent says

There is already a thousand dead in the US and this is just started, doubling every 3 days.
I think some people are a bit math challenged.

Yeah we know, we know...

And when those double cases DON'T happen, they incubate more on a Cruise ship and import them to where they are needed most for the Global agenda's optics.

Now New York is working out nicely as an incubation factory, Mayor DeBlasso can now export homegrown cases until we get our double numbers they so desperately need.
Florida has almost 2000 cases now, 95% of them were all imported from New York and the Cruise Ship industry.

Except that that doubling is not likely to go on very long, going by the flattening curves in other countries.

joshuatrio says

WHAT THE HELL!??!?? AND THE MEDIA IS STILL PUSHING PANIC OVER THIS????

Of course they are. The media is the opposition party, like Steve Bannon said.

Compare it to a normal year.

Patrick says

Compare it to a normal year.

It will be much worse than a normal year, but really there is nothing to be done about it unless there is a miracle cure. The sheltering in place does not make the virus disintegrate. No it is in the world-wide population and spreads like the flu. Every year about 8% of the population of the US comes down with the flu, and COVID-19 hospitalizes more people and kills more people than the flu statistically. Even if better weather slows its spread, it will return in the Fall/Winter where we will have to deal with it again.

We cannot shut down the entire economy every time there is an outbreak. Eventually we are going to have to deal with massive amounts of additional deaths. What happens in New York is just a warm up.

The point of sheltering in place is not to stop but to slow the pace.
Even in places like South Korea and Japan that are doing an outstanding job, the numbers of cases are still growing though at a slower rate.
Only China has stopped the progress of this thing, and this sounds very hard to believe.
The rate may even slow in summer, but we also see fast growth in places like Brazil, so a summer lull seems unlikely or weak.
Given all these facts, I don't see an end to this situation until we have a vaccine, i.e. at least a year.
Keeping the lock down for a year will result in prohibitive damage to the economy. We need everyone with masks, and a massive and systematic testing effort to allow some activity to happen.

HEYYOU says

What's this "math" you speak of?

Start by the next week: 1000 dead now doubling every 3 days.... at least 1000 more dead in 3 days, 3000 more dead over the next 6 days. Let's say 3000 more dead over the next week if the progression slows a bit.

Even at this continued stable rate over a year (50 weeks), that's 150,000. And the rate will likely go up. 500k to 1 million is definitively within the realm of possibilities.

So 20K dead estimate seems wrong. Though of course maybe a miracle drug could fall from the sky. Who knows.

Bullshit. South Korea is not growing, they have 51 million people and have 100 cases per day. How is this news worthy? It would take 10000 days or approx 25-30 years to infect 1/50th of their population. Asia is a complete non issue and so will be Europe within a few weeks. US will follow Europe. The only thing harming the economy are overly draconian measures. Yes Europe and the US will suffer most economically because they can't follow basic hygiene unlike most Asians who are user to hygiene and masks as everyday tools.

Any thought that a vaccine is a cure all is just wrong. Flu vaccines are have an effectiveness rate of about 30%. I expect the COVID-19 vaccine to be about on par with that. It will slow the spread through the populous, but the total number of deaths will remain quite large.

Misc says

It will be much worse than a normal year

Maybe not:

https://patrick.net/post/1331035/2020-03-27-omg-wuhan-virus-might-kill-as-many-people-as-died-of-the-flu-in-2018

Misc says

Any thought that a vaccine is a cure all is just wrong. Flu vaccines are have an effectiveness rate of about 30%. I expect the COVID-19 vaccine to be about on par with that. It will slow the spread through the populous, but the total number of deaths will remain quite large.

Compared to the flu they're still miniscule. Nothing large yet. 1k deaths. Flu & complications killed up to 60k this season in the US alone.

mell says

Misc says

Any thought that a vaccine is a cure all is just wrong. Flu vaccines are have an effectiveness rate of about 30%. I expect the COVID-19 vaccine to be about on par with that. It will slow the spread through the populous, but the total number of deaths will remain quite large.

Compared to the flu they're still miniscule. Nothing large yet. 1k deaths. Flu & complications killed up to 60k this season in the US alone.

The flu infected millions this year. COVID-19...not that much, but over the course of an entire year...we will wait and see. It's quaint seeing the charts track the cases in the thousands, knowing that in the Fall/Winter it will track in the millions.

mell says

Bullshit. South Korea is not growing, they have 51 million people and have 100 cases per day. How is this news worthy? It would take 10000 days or approx 25-30 years to infect 1/50th of their population. Asia is a complete non issue and so will be Europe within a few weeks. US will follow Europe. The only thing harming the economy are overly draconian measures. Yes Europe and the US will suffer most economically because they can't follow basic hygiene unlike most Asians who are user to hygiene and masks as everyday tools.

The numbers continue to grow in South Korea and Japan in spite of "good hygiene" and massive efforts to stop the virus, and they will continue to grow in the US and Europe for the same reasons. You are not saying why this wouldn't happen. And also you project linear growth which makes no sense.

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/26/the-scientist-whose-doomsday-pandemic-model-predicted-armageddon-just-walked-back-the-apocalyptic-predictions/

% ill of what?

Heraclitusstudent says

We need everyone with masks, and a massive and systematic testing effort to allow some activity to happen.

We need at risk population in masks and testing. I think the testing will show a much larger swath of the population was exposed, and therefore mortality rates and hospitalization rates will end up being manageable if we are careful.

If the new Trumppills work, everyone should be back to normal.

ThreeBays says

That's what's projected to lead to a much smaller peak in infections and the 20,000 deaths.

Ferguson's projections are literally just infection rate X mortality rate X population size. 2 out of 3 of those numbers are pulled right out his ass.

To go from 500k to 20k, given Ferguson's insistence that his mortality rate is accurate (sigh), the 80% estimated infection rate would have to drop to 3%.

Do you think lockdown has the CV limited to 3% of the population OR do you think a much larger than 3% group of infected public exists and Ferguson's mortality rate was off by a factor of 10x at least.

I'm betting it's the latter.

Heres the fun part, we're gonna have an answer to this in a few weeks. After home tests and drive through tests show 50%+ of CV transmission, the Ferguson model mortality rate will be proven to be 10x or more overblown.

Can we all admit this was a hysteria when that happens?

ThreeBays says

Patrick please do the world a public health service favor and stop posting bullshit from right-wing sites that intentionally mis-read facts. Think for yourself.

Oh jesus. Ok, what facts are intentionally misread? 500k to 20k isnt walking back his prediction? Ferguson refuses to admit his model was wrong, which makes him a fraud.

I've gone through the Ferguson reports in some detail. I find them disgustingly, and obviously flawed as I stated above. I find it bizarre that anyone listens to him.

As empirical evidence continues to prove his predictions and model wrong, at what point can we admit this was an extraordinary popular delusion?

ThreeBays says

1% or so of Americans could already have the virus.

If 1% have the virus (and frankly I'd bet its higher) then 1000 deaths = .03% mortality . This should be manageable

ThreeBays says

The 500k prediction was "in an unmitigated pandemic".

Yes, so we can all admit this was a nonsense figure? Why wouldnt Ferguson and everyone reporting this figure represent it as such rather than as a legit estimate? Great, moving on.

ThreeBays says

The 20,000 prediction follows heavy social distancing measures.

No it doesn't. Point out the specific spot in the report wherein he projected 20000 deaths given social distancing. Please also be aware that he adjusted the transmission rate to 3.0, whereas highest in those charts is 2.6.

https://t.co/K4GYt4uuUk

Page 7, chart D. His most extreme limited projection which includes mitigating factors and social distancing including extra distancing for seniors puts deaths at 3 per 1000.

3 per 1000 is 10x his 20000 prediction.

ThreeBays says

A scientist predicts if we stay here, everyone's going to die, but if we run for the hills we'll be OK.

Show me 1 article where a responsible journalist reported both extremes of his predictions.

The 2.2 million number was bandied about like it was a realistic death toll number. It's not, and you seem to agree. That figure should never have been reported.

Trump was the only one who said "we'll be ok" , and CNN threw shade at him for it.

Ferguson is flat wrong on his mortality rate.

ThreeBays says

Great, so you admit Ferguson's report said that, and you have no argument other than ill informed hear-say. Moving on.

Argument? Wtf are you talking about? My beef is w the fear mongering to scare people into a $6T bailout while destroying lives. This dudes most extreme figures were weaponized by the media when they should have been ignored as fantastical.

ThreeBays says

Pages 14-15, Table 4 and Table 5 had estimates for different R values and different trigger conditions for the most extreme social distancing.

Show us where in that chart you suggest his model says 20000 is expected.

ThreeBays says

If R is now modeled at 3.0 it means the situation is more severe than their prediction from a week ago.

Yes. The CV is testing at higher rates in general population, so he is suggesting R=3. Maybe hes right, OR maybe hes just trying to explain the larger than expected CV rates as compared to death rates.

Empirical evidence suggests CV is far more widespread than we can pinpoint. We wont know how widespread until we start testing the general population.

It's time for young and healthy to get back to work.

As expected, this won't even put a dent in traffic.

Looking at flu deaths now only measures deaths in an immunized, exposed population. A more informative comparator is death rates from a virus when it was first introduced into an immunologically naive population.

UK flu deaths now seem to be less than 200/year, with 2,000 ICU cases. So 20,000 seems to be a significant increase, but as time goes on, the number will hopefully go down.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/feb/20/britons-urged-to-get-flu-vaccine-as-critical-cases-rise-above-2000.

Even the swine flu in the UK didn't kill that many during the pandemic, and has similar parallels to coronavirus: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom

ThreeBays says

Patrick please do the world a public health service favor and stop posting bullshit from right-wing sites that intentionally mis-read facts. Think for yourself.

The problem with your statement, is that we get the left wing garbage shoved down our throats that's loaded with bias 24/7.

Why can't we get our sources from right wing sites? Most of us are fed up with the lefts bullshit, lgbtqwxyz tranny gender bender, pro illegal immigrant mindset that we have every right to question the narrative.

Sick of the doom and gloom from the left.

Think for yourself good grief.

The idea that the reporting and science on this being accurate is actually kind of cute at this point. Nobody knows anything because we have not tested enough as CBOE states.

What we do know is that we don't have enough equipment for hospitals during the current panic (not pandemic - that will be judged later). That is being addressed as we speak. What we also know is that 10's of thousands of completely healthy people that we need to restart the economy are going to be found in their garage hanging. Pick your poison at this point.

I say flood the healthcare industry with as much equipment as we can, test as many as we can, quarantine the sick and old, and open this mother fucker back up and get back to work. My first outside endeavor yesterday resulted in me realizing old people just want to fucking die anyway. I self quarantined for 11 days prior. 10% of the people I saw already looked dead. 3 in fucking electric scooters. This can't go away if this is the reality across the country.

thomasdong1776 says

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-pandemic-neil-ferguson-did-not-walk-back-covid-19-predictions/

Not sure why people are so into defending a scientist that has ZERO idea how many people are currently infected. Existing data is just that. Existing.... Half the fucking world could be infected and we don't know it. People have to understand this is clickbait and trying to pump careers. Yes, that's what I said. That's what this virus is. $$$$ people.

Also, expect there to be another huge event between now and election day. They're pulling out all the stops at this point. People need to wake up and see what's going on. If anyone was actually concerned about this, states would lock down the old and sick. Fine them. Arrest them. Funny though, they just fine healthy people running along Lake Michigan 20' from the nearest person....

ThreeBays says

So you're just looking for a different outlet. Might as well get your coronavirus news from theonion.com, it would be about as accurate as your right wing media.

It's a virus. Every outlet reporting on this is the onion.com at this point...

Then there's this Nobel Laureate guy...
Michael Levitt, a Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist, began analyzing the number of COVID-19 cases worldwide in January and correctly calculated that China would get through the worst of its coronavirus outbreak long before many health experts had predicted.
Now he foresees a similar outcome in the United States and the rest of the world.
We can continue to look towards China to see how they fare, though it's not promising that they're booting out foreign reporters left and right. If the Imperial College models are correct, this is what our future holds...

Hate for Trump the person blinds millions to his legitimate message that open borders and globalization have fucked the US working class.

Even if Hitler said 2 + 2 = 4, it's not wrong just because he's Hitler.

ThreeBays says

So you're just looking for a different outlet. Might as well get your coronavirus news from theonion.com, it would be about as accurate as your right wing media.

My work environment streams CNN 24/7 so I am force fed the left wing garbage 24/7. The right wing sites offer a more rational and honest perspective 99% of the time.

I used to be a dem. You guys have lost your voting base due to lack of common sense.

joshuatrio says

My work environment streams CNN 24/7

You're incredibly strong. I would be on a fucking suicide watch after a week of that.

joshuatrio says

My work environment streams CNN 24/7

You could have some fun adding letters to the CNN logo that’s permanently on the TV, like “NPC” on some masking tape in the same font and size. Use your imagination!
Confound your coworkers!
Whenever you go back to the office that is.

ThreeBays says

I think it's more likely that after the first wave above, we will then have countries try to switch to contact tracing

...
Will be interesting to see if this will be the West's (or maybe just America's) undoing. I can't see people submitting to this here (maybe in Europe).
Here's how the South Koreans dealt with it. Yes, there's an app for that.
Per Asia Times:
Transparency and innovation
Koreans are kept in the loop via two daily KCDC briefings, Chung said. Both are televised live. Leveraging Korean’s high penetration rate of smartphones, the country has taken an aggressive, but lawful, approach to contact tracing. GPS tracking, smartphone data, credit card transactions and CCTV footage have been combined by “data detectives” to map out infected persons routes, and the locations they have visited are made publicly available via the app. Until last week, when quarantines were imposed on travelers from the EU, and this week, on those from the US, Korea had only barred entry to travelers from China’s hard-hit Hubei Province and from Japan, the latter, in a political tit for tat. However, incoming travelers undertake health screenings and are required to download an app and report their health condition to medical authorities on a daily basis for 14 days.