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The Economic Cost of gun nut retards


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2018 Feb 15, 4:56am   42,768 views  293 comments

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Yesterday another gun nut slaughtered 17 innocent Americans in Florida. Let’s do a Cost Benefit Analysis

High school kids have ~50 years of unrealized labor potential, at a ballpark of 50k per year.

2,500,000 x 17 = $42,500,000 in lost potential wages


17 families will now have to bury a child. Average cost of funeral service 10k = $170,000

Let’s say on average 50 people attend each funeral, so they have to take a day or two of unpaid bereavement leave.

850 people x $500 in lost wages= $425,000 in lost wages

It’s not cheap to travel with no notice for planning, so we’ll use an average $1,000 per person = $850,000

100’s maybe 1,000s of survivors will now suffer from PTSD, which is hard to calculate costs but easily into the millions = $100,000,000- $1,000,000,000

So we’re already potentially north of 1 billion dollars in costs, without even beginning to consider all the ancillary costs to come, so we can pause and move over to the benefit side of the analysis.

Benefits

A gun manufacturer made a sale of ~1,000 which netted them a hundred or two in profits.


So who gets stuck with the tab for another gun nut taking his lame hobby of target practice to the local high school?

Oddly, not the gun maker. Because your halfwit Republican Government says that the gun worked as intended, to turn teenagers into bloody chunks.

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81   CajunSteve   2018 Feb 17, 3:58pm  

TwoScoopsPlissken says
The school wasn't locked down


Of course it was. You can't keep it locked down when kids enter and exit. That's the point.
82   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Feb 17, 3:59pm  

CajunSteve says
Of course it was. You can't keep it locked down when kids enter and exit. That's the point.


Your article states that the sole security officer may not have even been onsite, and everything was opened 20 minutes before the school closed.

That's not a lock down, that's a wide open.
83   CajunSteve   2018 Feb 17, 3:59pm  

TwoScoopsPlissken says
I don't understand. When I was a kid, we had to wait until all the safety crossing guards were deployed before they let us out the door. All by walkie-talkies back pre-cell phone era, when only Drug Dealers and Executives had beepers and car phones.


So, what do you propose. Having a SWAT team clear the campus every day before and after school?
84   CajunSteve   2018 Feb 17, 4:01pm  

TwoScoopsPlissken says
he SRO is NOT a dedicated security guard posted at the entrance. He will be breaking up fights, looking for kids sneaking out of the building, pursuing truants, meeting with parents etc. Security means a person at the door at all times. The SRO may not have even been on the campus. This kid was KNOWN to the admins and staff.


Nope--because having a security guard there would make no difference.

Remind me how the security guard at Mandalay Bay did?
85   Malcolm   2018 Feb 17, 4:02pm  

CajunSteve says
So, what do you propose. Having a SWAT team clear the campus every day before and after school?


No, but at least one armed community officer to be on campus at all times. But, before doing anything, take a breath and don't go to extremes like on site SWAT teams or random gun legislation.
86   CajunSteve   2018 Feb 17, 4:03pm  

Malcolm says
? The article made my point, you can't lock the place down all the time and you can't lock it during a fire alarm. That is a big hole without a clear solution. It would have helped if the community officer were there, I read that he may not have been on campus, that is an issue. That may be THE issue.


I agree with you except for the community officer part. He would have been the 1st casualty.
87   Malcolm   2018 Feb 17, 4:06pm  

CajunSteve says
Remind me how the security guard at Mandalay Bay did?


Different situation, he was trying to take out a sniper's nest, very defensible. This was a case of a sole gunmen penetrating a facility that in theory was secure. Guys, please grow up, the good guys don't always win in a gunfight, but it is at least a chance.
88   Malcolm   2018 Feb 17, 4:09pm  

CajunSteve says
Yes, we can spend a zillion dollars and put armed guards at every entrance and exit 24 hours a day, or we can simply make it more impossible for mentally deranged kids to get assault weapons.


But they ask you clear as day, on the questionnaire, if you are mentally unstable. It is a crime to lie on the form. LOL
89   Malcolm   2018 Feb 17, 4:14pm  

CajunSteve says
I agree with you except for the community officer part. He would have been the 1st casualty.


Why do you take it as a certainty that the gunman would win against an armed community officer? First off, the AR15 can't really be concealed. In my scenario it is better than 50/50 that the officer would win, or at least the gunfight outside might have prompted a different response. The whole thing would have played out differently, including not being able to activate the fire alarm.
90   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Feb 17, 4:16pm  

CajunSteve says
So, what do you propose. Having a SWAT team clear the campus every day before and after school?


How about ONE (1) security guard for just one building that alone contains 1000 students, staff, and faculty on an average day?

This isn't a one-room schoolhouse in Intercourse, PA or Dry Weeds, Nevada. This is a Campus with 3100+ students, plus a few hundred faculty and staff.

When you don't have ONE (1) dedicated security guard for the entire campus - not an SRO whose responsibilities take them off site but somebody at an entrance point watching cameras - you have NO security.

It would be a scandal if this was an office park. It's infamous that there was not a single dedicated security person onsite and watching the doors and/or cameras for what is a massive campus, a town unto itself.
91   Malcolm   2018 Feb 17, 4:16pm  

In addition, gunmen like this are actually cowards. Just seeing an armed presence might have deterred him.
92   CajunSteve   2018 Feb 17, 4:17pm  

Malcolm says

Why do you take it as a certainty that the gunman would win against an armed community officer? First off, the AR15 can't really be concealed. In my scenario it is better than 50/50 that the officer would win, or at least the gunfight outside might have prompted a different response. The whole thing would have played out differently, including not being able to activate the fire alarm.


Because the security guard would likely be flirting with one of the secretaries or talking to a student or playing candy crush when the assault rifle toting murderer came up on him. The element of surprise would be squarely on the side of the kid.
93   Malcolm   2018 Feb 17, 4:18pm  

CajunSteve says
Because the security guard would likely be flirting with one of the secretaries or talking to a student or playing candy crush when the assault rifle toting murderer came up on him. The element of surprise would be squarely on the side of the kid.


Score one for CajunSteve
94   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Feb 17, 4:18pm  

Here's what would have happened if they had one gatehouse at the entrance to the campus.

Kid drives up in an Uber. Guard gets the Kid's name, looks him up, he's on a list because the school already put out a warning he was not to enter and was expelled.

You've just prevented a mass shooting.
95   MrMagic   2018 Feb 17, 4:19pm  

CajunSteve says
Yes, we can spend a zillion dollars and put armed guards at every entrance and exit 24 hours a day,


CajunSteve says
This is dumbassery


You responded perfectly to your first statement.
96   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Feb 17, 4:19pm  

CajunSteve says
Because the security guard would likely be flirting with one of the secretaries or talking to a student or playing candy crush when the assault rifle toting murderer came up on him. The element of surprise would be squarely on the side of the kid.


When the kid pulled the alarm, the guard would have seen the camera and saw a kid with a backpack fleeing the scene, which would have totally changed the encounter. He could have cancelled the alarm, put out on the PA to lock all classroom doors and stay inside, or take other actions that would have prevented many deaths.

And if it was a gatehouse guard, the kid probably wouldn't have gained entry. The Uber Driver ain't gonna ram the gate to deliver the gunman to the front door of the school.

Chances are the AR-15 was disassembled in the backpack, or it was a hell of a tall backpack.

Not having ONE (1) dedicated campus Security Guard on a massive 3100 Student (+100s of faculty/staff) != Amazing Security, and could not at all be called a Lockdown or even basic security.
97   CajunSteve   2018 Feb 17, 4:21pm  

@Patrick

I believe comment 99 is against your rules
98   CajunSteve   2018 Feb 17, 4:22pm  

TwoScoopsPlissken says
Here's what would have happened if they had one gatehouse at the entrance to the campus.

Kid drives up in an Uber. Guard gets the Kid's name, looks him up, he's on a list because the school already put out a warning he was not to enter and was expelled.

You've just prevented a mass shooting.


lol--so every parent who comes to pick up their child has to be cleared by a security guard? Do you have any idea how long that would take and how impractical it is?
99   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Feb 17, 4:23pm  

CajunSteve says
I believe comment 99 is against your rules


I believe 90 was also against "Your Rules" @Patrick.

I'm an Armchair Quarterback for noticing there was not a single ONE (1) dedicated guard for an immense campus of 3100+ Kids.
100   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Feb 17, 4:29pm  

Imagine if Lockheed-Martin, or the Department of Energy, or for that matter General Mills or the Florida Department of Agriculture or a UPS distribution center did not have a single dedicated security guard for a campus of over 3100 employees, nor a controlled gateway for vehicles.

If some crazed shooter, or random individual, entered that facility and killed somebody or stole documents, the lack of even rudimentary security would be a scandal.

Here we have a kid already on a list and known to the school authorities as well as the Sheriff's Office, who could penetrate a 3100+ campus without the least interaction with a human being, because there wasn't a single dedicated security person for a facility of that size.

And people are saying "What could we have done?"
101   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Feb 17, 5:24pm  

PS The last TWO hospitals I went into, both in Florida and one in a rural unincorporated part of the county that only had a handful of beds, I had to give up my Driver's License and take a picture to get past the security guard, who gave me a badge with my photo on it. This hospital had maybe a few hundred patients and staff at most and definitely less than 3000 people at any given time.

Like I said, the school had no security to speak of.
102   MrMagic   2018 Feb 17, 5:27pm  

anon_cf6c6 says
tatty/joeyjoey/happygilmore now CajunSteve, why do you keep signing up NEW profiles here? This new one was just signed up today?


I'm wondering the same thing, it's every few months?
103   MrMagic   2018 Feb 17, 5:27pm  

CajunSteve says
Remind me how the security guard at Mandalay Bay did?


Was he armed?
104   anonymous   2018 Feb 17, 5:27pm  

CajunSteve says
@Patrick

I believe comment 99 is against your rules


Since when is requoting a poster a problem?
105   anonymous   2018 Feb 17, 5:27pm  

CajunSteve says
lol--so every parent who comes to pick up their child has to be cleared by a security guard?


Do many parents carry AR-15's with them when they pick up their kids?
106   anonymous   2018 Feb 17, 5:27pm  

"We have a security person. Our only choice is to ban all firearms."
"Where was the security officer at the time of the shooting?"
"Oh, he was 20 miles away interviewing the potential hire for the new Assistant Food and Beverage Director."
107   MrMagic   2018 Feb 17, 5:27pm  

Malcolm says
CajunSteve says
I agree with you except for the community officer part. He would have been the 1st casualty.


Why do you take it as a certainty that the gunman would win against an armed community officer?


Exactly, he wouldn't

A trained LEO or ex military SRO would NOT be taken by surprise by a punk ass kid?

That's Hollywood movie fiction.
108   MrMagic   2018 Feb 17, 5:28pm  

Malcolm says
CajunSteve says
I agree with you except for the community officer part. He would have been the 1st casualty.


Why do you take it as a certainty that the gunman would win against an armed community officer?


Exactly, he wouldn't

A trained LEO or ex military SRO would NOT be taken by surprise by a punk ass kid?

That's Hollywood movie fiction.
109   MrMagic   2018 Feb 17, 5:28pm  

Malcolm says
CajunSteve says
I agree with you except for the community officer part. He would have been the 1st casualty.


Why do you take it as a certainty that the gunman would win against an armed community officer?


Exactly, he wouldn't .

A trained LEO or ex military SRO would NOT be taken by surprise by a punk ass kid?

That's Hollywood movie fiction.
110   MrMagic   2018 Feb 17, 5:28pm  

CajunSteve says
or we can simply make it impossible for mentally deranged kids to get assault weapons.


Great, what NEW law, on top of the existing 20,000 gun laws should be written to accomplish that. Please be specific and refrain from hyperbole.

I'm seriously interested on how you can accomplish that.

What NEW laws would a mentally derange kid honor, since they don't honor any of the existing ones?
111   MrMagic   2018 Feb 17, 5:28pm  

CajunSteve says
TwoScoopsPlissken says

Most schools have one main entrance that is open. The rest are emergency doors that are locked from the outside and sound an alarm if pushed from the inside. Every school I went to was this way.


Why don't we just lock the main door too then? And any visitor must get buzzed in?


Sandy Hook had the doors locked and Adam Lanza shot his way in.

What if an armed and trained security guard was in the hallway and he knew they were there? Any chance the outcome might have changed when the guard heard him shooting his way in?
112   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Feb 17, 5:31pm  

Sniper says
What if an armed and trained security guard was in the hallway and he knew they were there? Any chance the outcome might have changed when the guard heard him shooting his way in?


For starters, the cops would have had a heads-up real fast. And give the kids time to escape or lock the classroom doors.

But the AR-15 was almost certainly in his backpack, and at least on it's hinges. If he decided to shoot his way through the gatehouse/front door, he'd have to take off the backpack, pull out the rifle, and put it together. 30 seconds if he was stone-cold SSRI overdose. Longer if he was the least nervous.

Every delay and obstacle increases the chance of survival. Too bad there weren't any at the school.

"But Muh Cameras"

That nobody was watching.
113   CBOEtrader   2018 Feb 17, 5:31pm  

Malcolm says

First, I am not anti gun or liberal, but facts is facts. Australia is averaging 1 out of 100,000 deaths from homicide. The USA, depending on what numbers you can find are between 3 and 5 per hundred thousand.


Sure. Idaho has 1.9 murders per 100k, with the 3rd highest rate of gun ownership. Washington DC has 26 murders per 100k. Ask yourself what the difference is between those places.

Then do the same comparison between the US and Australia. (Hint: it's not guns, it's culture.)
114   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Feb 17, 5:33pm  

Last time I went to a hospital in rural Florida. A few hundred patients, faculty and staff, tops. Obviously, mostly adults.

No getting past reception without having your picture taken, your Driver's License copied, and your name, DL# and photo on a visitor badge.

This school was a facility with a population several times larger.
115   CBOEtrader   2018 Feb 17, 5:45pm  

Malcolm says
Snopes classifies the claim that banning guns in Australia led to higher crime rates as false.

https://www.snopes.com/crime/statistics/ausguns.asp


Snopes is lying to you in the same way that most gun control proponents lie to you. They are measuring either "gun murder rates" or more disingenuous "gun death rates". From the article "firearm homicides (both suicides and intentional killings) in Australia had dropped significantly".

It's a lie. Go look at the stats yourself.
116   LeonDurham   2018 Feb 17, 5:47pm  

I believe the anon cf6c6 comment is against the rules as well.
117   LeonDurham   2018 Feb 17, 5:48pm  

CBOEtrader says
Sure. Idaho has 1.9 murders per 100k, with the 3rd highest rate of gun ownership. Washington DC has 26 murders per 100k. Ask yourself what the difference is between those places.

Then do the same comparison between the US and Australia. (Hint: it's not guns, it's culture.)


Even if you're right-so what? That's not an argument against banning weapons whose sole purpose is mass killing. Or better background checks.
118   LeonDurham   2018 Feb 17, 5:49pm  

Sniper says
Sandy Hook had the doors locked and Adam Lanza shot his way in.

What if an armed and trained security guard was in the hallway and he knew they were there? Any chance the outcome might have changed when the guard heard him shooting his way in?


There's always a chance, but Adam probably would have chosen to go in a different door then.
119   LeonDurham   2018 Feb 17, 5:57pm  

TwoScoopsPlissken says
Last time I went to a hospital in rural Florida. A few hundred patients, faculty and staff, tops. Obviously, mostly adults.

No getting past reception without having your picture taken, your Driver's License copied, and your name, DL# and photo on a visitor badge.

This school was a facility with a population several times larger.


Does every patient in the hospital enter and exit at the same time every day?
120   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Feb 17, 5:58pm  

LeonDurham says
Whoa Nelly. Let's back up. Is your position that citizens should have the right to any weapon?


Killing intruders, deer, and target shooting as well.

It's like saying cars should be banned because their only purpose is to run over people.

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