patrick.net

when you piss off half of the investors it is going to take twice as much profit to gain the same amount of equity.

very very simple math.

Waiting for orders to ship just because they are trying to get you to subscribe to Prime is starting to put me off ordering from Amazon.

Amazon is a known sanctuary online market place for Chinese scammers who sell knock off products.

Strategic Renter says

Waiting for orders to ship just because they are trying to get you to subscribe to Prime is starting to put me off ordering from Amazon.

It's not just you that they are putting off.

As a prime subscriber, I can't think of a more convenient shopping experience. Lots of choice. Good reviews. No traffic. Quick enough delivery.

Last night on Nightly Business News they referred to Amazon as a tech company. They need to go to school, it's a store. Stores come and go. Anyone who buys a store stock with a P/E ratio as high as Amazon'a is taking a big risk!

PE Ratio (TTM) 192.48

zzyzzx says

Amazon as a tech company.

They offer online services as well as shipping of goods. Also, in their goods shipping business, they have redefined how things are done. Is Uber a tech company or a cab service?

zzyzzx says

PE Ratio (TTM) 192.48

I haven't done the math, b/c I'm not interested in buying Amazon stock, but high PE ratios are based on growth projections. Their revenue more than doubled in 4 yrs. Their gross income more than tripled in that time. Assuming continued growth, that means income will increase by 9 times in eight years. That would put the price to earnings ratio make sense if you were willing to bet things continue to go well for at least 5 yrs. I say 5 yrs instead of 8, because after 8 yrs, you will own something with a P(that you paid) to E ratio of 20 with very high growth. Now, the big question is when will Amazon become saturated? Are we moving toward a point where they are not going to get more and more customers or will they continue to gobble up customers and create a wasteland out of retail malls for all but the service industry?

I think they are solid, constantly investing into innovation

I love it when companies get so big they think they can grow and grow until they own the world.

Google is next neither of these companies will be around in ten years.

Or they'll be about like Yahoo.
FortWayne says

I think they are solid, constantly investing into innovation

They are squandering money not innovating. Drone delivery systems is a non starter. What could happen though, is the regulatory body realizes that our air space can't be polluted with delivery drones so just one company might end up owning that airspace and the right to use delivery drone while everyone can only read about them in the papers. We all will end up paying more taxes to support the regulatory body that tells us we can't fly our delivery drones and tell us where we can't stand and walk because Amazon owns the air we breath and might land there.

Fuck Amazon bitches burn that shit down they are killing local economies everywhere. They should be taxed for the amount of money they pull from every local economy in the world.

Tenpoundbass says

Google is next neither of these companies will be around in ten years.

Or they'll be about like Yahoo.

...

They should be taxed for the amount of money they pull from every local economy in the world.

IMO their continued destruction of the local retailer is strong evidence they will continue to thrive in ten years. I think it would be difficult for someone to dethrone Amazon at this point and in the near future. And if drone delivery comes to fruition....local retailers will be dealt a death blow, as they lose a major competitive advantage over online retail (being able to get a product into the customer hands within minutes). Hell, drones could even bring a selection of items out to your doorstep, and wait 10 minutes while you pick the one you like, or just leave and come back for the return of the unwanted items later. Retailers are in trouble, and their locations will become much less numerous.

"Now let's look at some other uglies. Media growth rate was down in 2016 in the quarter, as was general merchandise. It was up somewhat internationally. Meh, in short -- Amazon is no longer growing AWS explosively; they are being severely pressured by competitors, being forced to drop prices, and expense ratios are going the wrong way in a big hurry.

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=231804

The stock still looks like a freakin miracle of momentum. The latest blip is absolutely nothing by comparison:

And I say this reluctantly, as someone who hates Amazon and does not trust them.

YesYNot says

Is Uber a tech company or a cab service?

Uber is a cab service. Duh.

YesYNot says

will they continue to gobble up customers and create a wasteland out of retail malls for all but the service industry

That would have happened anyway. It's the enclosed malls that are doing poorly.

YesYNot says

I haven't done the math, b/c I'm not interested in buying Amazon stock, but high PE ratios are based on growth projections. Their revenue more than doubled in 4 yrs. Their gross income more than tripled in that time. Assuming continued growth, that means income will increase by 9 times in eight years. That would put the price to earnings ratio make sense if you were willing to bet things continue to go well for at least 5 yrs. I say 5 yrs instead of 8, because after 8 yrs, you will own something with a P(that you paid) to E ratio of 20 with very high growth. Now, the big question is when will Amazon become saturated? Are we moving toward a point where they are not going to get more and more customers or will they continue to gobble up customers and create a wasteland out of retail malls for all but the service industry?

Amazon is (fr the most part) a store, and any prudent long term investor needs to evaluate it as a store. I'm not saying that there isn't money to be made short term, but more along the lines of gambling than investing. Amazon doesn't even pay a dividend.

Now, the big question is when will Amazon become saturated?
Exactly. It's not a matter if if, but when. Remember that any idiot can sell online.

zzyzzx says

Amazon is (fr the most part) a store, and an...

I think they're a bit more than just a "store". Ignoring their tech services division, they're certainly a very successful marketplace and possibly a budding logistics service, where many small scale businesses and individuals pay amazon juicy fees in exchange for Amazon to provide their automated retail services, like selling, storing, delivering, returns, etc...

Also, from what I've seen, they're very innovative and effective compared to other modern day retailers.
Their analysis of your browsing/purchase history and use of it to drive the "you may also be interested in..." product suggestions are by far the best I've ever seen.
Their warehouses are an automation marvel.
They made an app so that they could recruit cheap on-demand labor from everyday people who have a car, to help them deliver goods in areas where it was otherwise expensive, or prone to surges in deliveries.
They're pioneering drone delivery.
They tend to do a good job of bringing high tech solutions to retail - like that new retail store that uses cameras to track what you put in your shopping cart. This could let them open retail stores with low labor requirements.

But you're right - long term, I think many of these things could be done by a future competitor. What's hard though, is creating a competitor with their talent and resources. Any idiot can sell online, but idiots can't compete with amazon.

http://variety.com/2017/digital/news/amazon-aws-s3-down-1201998994/

Amazon’s S3 servers, which are often used to store images and other media, suffered an outage across the East Coast regionTuesday morning, affecting services ranging from Amazon’s own media services to Medium to Slack.

I don't know-a company growing by 22% is not bad IMHO. Are they seeing any macro issues like brick and mortar retailers?

after all the money Bezos took from investors, you'd think they would invest in power outlets made outside of China.

it only gets worse from here. since Nov 8:
Nasdaq index: +11%
Amzn: +7%
investors are really paying the price.

their total profit since the company inception is under $3B. this is how much Apple pockets a week. if this is not a big red flag i don't know what is.
a stock is PONZI if it does not pay dividends.
WHEN WILL BEZOS return investors' money?

175 P/E? the crash is going to be Armageddon.

Booger says