patrick.net

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

If Clinton is elected, will she allow the AT&T-Time Warner merger to go through? Quite frankly we should be busting up the current media companies, not allowing more mergers between them

Exactly how is the proposed AT&T - Time Warner merger monopolistic? It's not like AT&T is trying to buy T-Mobile.

Entitlemented says

US citizens are going to have to work very hard to pick up our slack on Science and Engineering and Manufacturing

As an ex-engineer, I can attest to the lack of jobs for engineers in the US as the reason as the alleged "slide". When manufacturing left the US, so did a lot of the engineering jobs. No jobs = less people going to college for it. There are loads of unemployed or under employed engineers in the US.

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

People seem to think before the early 90s, nobody owned TVs, Phones, Cars, or Fax Machines because they were all made in the USA and it cost $10,000 to have a touch tone phone or that a Ford Econoline Van cost $250,000 because it was made expensively in the USA, and only the very rich had touch tone phones or cars until we outsourced everything..

Sir,

You are correct in part, but I have purchased a Ford Escape with parts from US and Mexico. I compared to a BMW 3 SUV, which was nearly 70% more than the Ford, had a superior stereo, excellent handling and slightly better engine and seats. I have driven the Ford for 85K miles and spend

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

People seem to think before the early 90s, nobody owned TVs, Phones, Cars, or Fax Machines because they were all made in the USA and it cost $10,000 to have a touch tone phone or that a Ford Econoline Van cost $250,000 because it was made expensively in the USA, and only the very rich had touch tone phones or cars until we outsourced everything..

Sir,

You are correct in part, but I have purchased a Ford Escape with parts from US and Mexico. I compared to a BMW 3 SUV, which was nearly 70% more than the Ford, had a superior stereo, excellent handling and slightly better engine and seats. I have driven the Ford for 85K miles and spend less than $1500 in maintenance, that would not been the case with the BMW.

So with parity in taxes, laws, encouragement of manufacturing, reduction in costs/complexity of liability/Workers Comp Ins, Tax breaks for Cap Ex, the US is in some cases poised to re-establish basic R&D and Manufacturing.

For very advanced R&D (Alt Energy, Atmos Eng for Global Warming reduction, advanced Hydrogen extraction, artificial photosynthesis) if the US incentivized Education, R&D tax breaks, funding for adv R&D to the tune of $5-8B per year, the US could increase output and improve GDP.

While Obama hammered home his "Hope and Change" for the first few years, it was dropped as it was an empty misleading slogan.

We need visionary and progressive minded leaders. Obama and Clinton do not appear to have these traits.

ThreeBays says

What Trump inflationary "prosperity" would look like.

British Service Growth continues to explode, despite rising costs (read: Wage increases).
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/news/services-sector-growth-accelerates-despite-costs-increase-35185029.html

Low growth + low inflation has been a sign of unequal, 1%er concentrated gains. Moderate inflation is a sign the economy is truly growing for everybody.

zzyzzx is deplorable says

Exactly how is the proposed AT&T - Time Warner merger monopolistic? It's not like AT&T is trying to buy T-Mobile.

You're thinking Mobile Phones. I'm thinking AT&T's control of Media. And Cable, do we really need less Cable/Internet competition?

Blonigen was quick to point out that the paper says nothing about any individual deal, including the AT&T-Time Warner blockbuster. Deciding whether to approve or reject that merger will require significant work to go over detailed data about each company and the media industry. There are also other concerns with vertical mergers in this space. An AT&T-Time Warner goliath could favor its own content—Time Warner owns HBO and Turner Broadcast which includes CNN, TBS, TNT and other channels—over content from other providers. There’s also growing concern that vertical mergers give combined firms too much power in the labor market, resulting in lower wages and benefits for workers.

Patrick says

If Trump wins (very much like the Brexit), the dollar will drop, and therefore US exports will surge. There will be tariffs against China, and US manufacturing will in fact revive. Some form of the wall with Mexico will be built, and millions of illegals will leave or be deported (so the cost of vegetables, maids, and construction work will go up). People will feel free to support traditional values like clear gender roles and heterosexual marriage, and the declining marriage rate will reverse and start rising again. We will withdraw militarily from many countries. Iran will invade and take over Saudi Arabia's mostly-Shiite oil fields, and Saudi Arabia will plunge into civil war, raising the price of oil. Oil production in the US and other countries will go up to compensate and oil prices will fall again. Overall US prosperity will increase for the masses, while the super-wealthy find their wealth stagnating because they depended so much on Hillary's policies. So the gap between rich and poor will decline

Oh my goodness, we can't have THAT. Killory must win at any costs, get those dead people's ballots out again, this time they should vote 10 times each. Anything but traditional values. GADS!!!! Will the madness never stop?

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

Low growth + low inflation has been a sign of unequal, 1%er concentrated gains. Moderate inflation is a sign the economy is truly growing for everybody.

Exacerbated by cheap money that allows the 1% to invest ahead of a create their own inflation.

indigenous says

How is Trump going to cause inflation?

He can't: http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/bonds/edward-lambert-on-bond-demand-the-coming-recession-and-new-normal?post=111806&uid=4798

I had a dream last night, it was stormy outside and I was in a bar having a good time with Bush Jr, Obama, and Trump, we were all having a good time laughing about this election. I don’t even like all three, was it an omen?

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

Tax Breaks for the Rich, Private Prisons, Mass Incarceration, Bank Deregulation, Opposition to reimposing Glass-Steagal,

Dogs and Cats, Living Together. :)

The banks would crash if it was reimposed, not that it would not be good. There is just a big chasm between us and good.

Gary Anderson says

He can't: http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/bonds/edward-lambert-on-bond-demand-the-coming-recession-and-new-normal?post=111806&uid=4798

The macro economics are simple.

The US exports inflation, the definition of inflation is an increase in the money supply with an increase in demand.

The above is dependent on demographics at which point there will be inflation IMO.

The Prez has nothing to do with the above.

indigenous says

Exacerbated by cheap money that allows the 1% to invest ahead of a create their own inflation.

Said Cheap Money is caused by ZIRP which was cause by Housing Bubble Malinvestment, along with NAFTA. Service Industry growth cannot create tax base that supports all local, state and Fed government function.

Cant raise ZIRP because all the legal eagle insider deals were Ponzi Scheme in a transfer of influence for cash, which cannot last forever.

This specter of low manufacturing, limited jobs, government induced house appreciation, goverment induced manufacture, government regulation and real job loss results in low GDP, inability to escape ZIRP. All the while the Ponzi Malivestment gets transferred to deficit and will grow until such Ponzi Malivestment are stopped and reversed. Such shady lobbying by the administration flows into the Judicial control, and likely influence of the Fed by the administration, means that much more forcefull event will be required to stop the Pay to Play, Lobbying and Clinton Kleptocrasy/Empire.

indigenous says

Is that not creation?

Explain...

Watching RUPTLY coverage. They claim there are 2 other parties in the race... First a Green Party!!?? and a Libertarian Party?
LOL. Whatever, lying sacks... who makes this stuff up??

Entitlemented says

Said Cheap Money is caused by ZIRP which was cause by Housing Bubble Malinvestment, along with NAFTA

The point I look at was ZIRP and QE, which exacerbated the problem.

Entitlemented says

Cant raise ZIRP because all the legal eagle insider deals were Ponzi Scheme in a transfer of influence for cash, which cannot last forever.

I have come to think that ZIRP is more organic than it appears.

Entitlemented says

This specter of low manufacturing, limited jobs, government induced house appreciation, goverment induced manufacture, government regulation and real job loss results in low GDP, inability to escape ZIRP.

Manufacturing jobs are lower but not the manufacturing sales.

Even the appreciation is on a record low home ownership.

GDP is a poor metric of how an economy is doing.

This has little to do with my point at post # 81

It is called the Cantillon Effect, which says that inflation is not equal and the people who receive the money first are able to invest ahead of the inflation.

NuttBoxer says

indigenous says

Is that not creation?

Explain...

This is an indicator of a binary: Does the person make things better or worse.

Trump creates casinos and real estate products.

Hillary creates wars and death and nothing valuable. The Clinton foundation is a highly dubious organization.

Entitlemented says

Cant raise ZIRP

It's currently set for December, but you can be sure as the time comes closer it will be explained that "now is just not the right time to raise interest rates."

P N Dr Lo R says

It's currently set for December, but you can be sure as the time comes closer it will be explained that "now is just not the right time to raise interest rates."

Sir,

If Trump wins, it will be the ideal time for raising interest rates.

It's shapping up to be a landslide by the data being reported by precincts that have closed and reported already.
This may be a repeat of every Primary that Trump smashed right through where he was supposed to have his clear path to Victory killed by all polls and media accounts.

It might be Curtains for the Clintons Curtains and iron bars

http://orig06.deviantart.net/1de1/f/2007/126/8/3/curtain___04_by_lunanyxstock.jpg

Remember when Democrats were critical of Warmongers? Pepperridge Farm remembers.

(The speech she's referring to is Obama's anti-Iraq War speech, whereas she and McCain were Proudly - even as late as 2008 - patting themselves on the back for it)

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

Low growth + low inflation has been a sign of unequal, 1%er concentrated gains. Moderate inflation is a sign the economy is truly growing for everybody.

Or that sterling has collapsed in value, so the cost of many goods has risen as a consequence.

Temporarily, perhaps.

Without EU regulations, the UK will be able to trade with other nations more easily. Perhaps it can buy cheap goods from China?

Rashomon says

Or that sterling has collapsed in value, so the cost of many goods has risen as a consequence.

But volcanoes haven't erupted and frogs haven't rained from the heavens, eh? In fact the economic news is mildly better.

Inflation is great for debtors, be it college or mortgages, by the way.

Peter P says

Temporarily, perhaps.

Without EU regulations, the UK will be able to trade with other nations more easily. Perhaps it can buy cheap goods from China?

Shame getting on for 50% of trade is with the EU. And given the importance of the financial sector to the UK...

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

But volcanoes haven't erupted and frogs haven't rained from the heavens, eh? In fact the economic news is mildly better.

Inflation is great for debtors, by the way.

It also demonstrates what you said isn't necessarily accurate. And potential double digit rises in food prices is bad for the poor, by the way. And the UK hasn't actually started the process of leaving the EU yet...

Rashomon says

Shame getting on for 50% of trade is with the EU. And given the importance of the financial sector to the UK...

That is now, because of the EU. In the future, there can be deals with Asia and the US.

The Brits are the smartest people in the room. I am more worried about EU's future.

Peter P says

That is now, because of the EU. In the future, there can be deals with Asia and the US.

The Brits are the smartest people in the room. I am more worried about EU's future.

What manufacturing trade with Asia do you think the UK will be any more competitive in than it already is? As the US has already pointed out to the UK government, the UK will be way down the list in terms of reaching trade agreements. The EU has priority. The UK has a fairly weak manufacturing base (certainly compared to what it once was) and what there is is heavily based around trade with the EU - most especially for foreign manufacturers based in the UK. They only just got Nissan to pledge its future by offering major incentives. I presume a great many are waiting to see what agreement is reached before making their decisions. There are major aerospace and pharmaceutical companies in the UK - their futures in the UK must be open to question as well. There's a reason why Brexit was hugely unpopular amongst the business community.

Rashomon says

It also demonstrates what you said isn't necessarily accurate. And potential double digit rises in food prices is bad for the poor, by the way. And the UK hasn't actually started the process of leaving the EU yet...

It shows that the prediction that all the Service Companies were going to flee was mostly rubbish.

Inflation is always moderate when there is real growth, not just the 1% taking all the gains.

We have regularly high price increases with housing, medical care, and college costs - the entry requirements to the middle class.

The Brits are going to take the Dogger Bank and the Fisheries back, and there's tens of thousands of jobs from fishing to canning to trade shows right there. Right now the Spanish, Dutch, and Portugese are stealing all the British Fish, and the EU has the least efficient fisheries in the world. They end up destroying 50% of their catch, because the incentive is for a few countries to subsidize the shit out of outdated craft and just suck everything up.

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

It shows that the prediction that all the Service Companies were going to flee was mostly rubbish.

No, it doesn't, and it was more specifically the financial services sector - and those decisions won't be made until the Brexit deal is finalised. The fact it hasn't even begun yet rather puts the lie to your claims.

Rashomon says

No, it doesn't, and it was more specifically the financial services sector - and those decisions won't be made until the Brexit deal is finalised. The fact it hasn't even begun yet rather puts the lie to your claims.

The Remoaners were saying that voting Out would result in immediate, massive harm to the UK the moment the vote was counted. It hasn't, if anything the economic numbers are better now than they were before Brexit.

That's a big bonk for Remoan.

50% of Cars sold in the UK are German. That's far more important economically than Cadbury Chocolate, and it gives the Brits a shitload of leverage.

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

The Remoaners were saying that voting Out would result in immediate, massive harm to the UK. It hasn't, if anything the economic numbers are better now than they were before Brexit.

That's a big bonk for Remoan.

It has - have you noticed the exchange rate as one obvious example? And this is several years before we are even likely to leave. The leave campaign was based on a very clear set of lies and demonstrates (just like with Trump in the US) how easy it is to mislead an ill-informed electorate. Just look at the Brexit battle bus and the utterly flagrant £350m a week lie they peddled the entire campaign. Of course, they reneged on it the day they won the referendum.

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

50% of Cars sold in the UK are German. That's far more important economically than Cadbury Chocolate, and it gives the Brits a shitload of leverage.

Why? It's not like those cars will be replaced by ones made by the British car industry, is it?

@Patrick

Well, it's looking like you're going to find out how wrong you are. Congratulations.

OK, let's see what happens.

IF he gets much of what he wants, and I guess I can hope he doesn't. But if he does get much of what he supposedly wants with respect to trade, tariffs and domestic manufacturing, I predict we will be hearing the word "stagflation" for the first time since the 70s, a few years from now, and eventually many years later it will be obvious that the inflation he caused lowered our standard of living.

But don't worry, republicans will blame liberals or taxes or some other culprit.

Let's look back at this thread with 2020 hindsight (in the year 2020) and see who was closer to correct. I'll hope that his talk was mostly just his scam to get power, and he'll surround himself with at least a few smart people and never do what he said he was going to do.

indigenous says

Trump creates casinos and real estate products.

I guess, was thinking more cars, furniture, computer chips kind of manufacturing...

marcus is NOT deplorable says

I'll hope that his talk was mostly just his scam to get power

Telling people what they want to hear so they vote for you!? You get out! You get out now!!!

Gold will be up today, but I see it tanking short term but rising long term. USD will fall and imports and exports will go up. Wages will stagnate, but eventually go up. Things are going to get worse before they get better.

Rashomon says

As the US has already pointed out to the UK government, the UK will be way down the list in terms of reaching trade agreements.

This might change under President Trump.

Rashomon says

Why? It's not like those cars will be replaced by ones made by the British car industry, is it?

Think about this Rashomon.

It means the Europeans Germans don't have the leverage they think they do.

And the City won't be Hurt, because the internationalization of banks is supported through a variety of other international multilateral treaties.