patrick.net

I don't know whether Trump will win the election or not. I think he has a better chance than polls predict, because the majority of Americans have been strongly conditioned not to speak their actual views through decades of threats of job loss or expulsion from school, and this probably carries over when speaking with pollsters.

If Hillary wins, I predict that Trump's movement against establishment politicians will continue to grow, because the conditions which gave rise to Trump will continue. Hillary will continue to aggressively export US jobs, import foreign labor to depress wages, restrict free speech, attack traditional values, and start additional wars around the world. That would make the next election unfortunately even more interesting.

If Trump wins (very much like the Brexit), the dollar will drop, and therefore US exports will surge. There will be tariffs against China, and US manufacturing will in fact revive. Some form of the wall with Mexico will be built, and millions of illegals will leave or be deported (so the cost of vegetables, maids, and construction work will go up). People will feel free to support traditional values like clear gender roles and heterosexual marriage, and the declining marriage rate will reverse and start rising again. We will withdraw militarily from many countries. Iran will invade and take over Saudi Arabia's mostly-Shiite oil fields, and Saudi Arabia will plunge into civil war, raising the price of oil. Oil production in the US and other countries will go up to compensate and oil prices will fall again. Overall US prosperity will increase for the masses, while the super-wealthy find their wealth stagnating because they depended so much on Hillary's policies. So the gap between rich and poor will decline.

#politics