patrick.net

I'm also from SD, and we are no where near the bottom. I think we are on the way, the realtor who sold our rental of 4+ years in early spring agreed things are cooling.

NuttBoxer says

I'm also from SD, and we are no where near the bottom.

You are right.

The bottom was years ago, when you were on this forum, and decided not to buy. EPIC STUPID DECISION!!!!!

NuttBoxer says

I'm also from SD, and we are no where near the bottom.

Neither are you anywhere near the top. Long way to go, dude.

NuttBoxer says

I think we are on the way, the realtor who sold our rental of 4+ years in early spring agreed things are cooling.

You base the most important decision of your life i.e. buying a house, based on what a realtor says?

Yes, I think the arguments are still valid, but local markets are hard to predict. My best advice is to use the NY Times rent vs buy calculator, and don't count on much appreciation.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-calculator.html

If it's cheaper to buy when assuming appreciation at the inflation rate, then it's probably safe to buy, IMHO.

03a7e says

We live in San Diego area.

buy. people want to live there and there aren't a lot of units available in the nicer sections. job growth has been steady.

what is your price range?

it's still a good time to buy

Only if the op has no more than 3 alt accounts...

03a7e says

Is 2015 post about housing still valid?

03a7e says

do you think that your post from 2015 is still valid today? Has anything changed or is indicating a change? We live in San Diego area.

.
There is high probability housing in general in the US including SD is going to grow slow and steady and continue to do so. The particulars attached are as much or more so indicated by global economics and geopolitical events then what is happening on the local front. The simple direction and velocity of the global money flow is indicating the likelihood of some phenomenal opportunities in US markets in general including RE, although RE is not likely to be the biggest winner it definitely has potential of some reasonable ROI and sustained US market share.

As an investment the caution here is there will be a time when the conditions of buying RE becomes chasing price which adds risk especially to something as Illiquid as RE and therein lies the problem, if a person can't determine a high probability entry how would it ever be possible to
to know when to get out?

Am i the only one who thinks the RE estate market is set to shoot up again?
You guys have a lot of learning to do.

Strategist says

Am i the only one who thinks the RE estate market is set to shoot up again?

"shoot up" not so much.

Graybox says

There is high probability housing in general in the US including SD is going to grow slow and steady and continue to do so.

I've seen homes jump another $20-40k in NW Metro Atlanta.... That's in the last 6 months alone. Even Zillow places my house $20k more than I paid for it the other month.

Another bubble brewing?

Strategist says

You base the most important decision of your life i.e. buying a house, based on what a realtor says?

How often do you hear a realtor tell you not to buy?

landtof says

there aren't a lot of units available in the nicer sections.

I live by a country club, and I've seen houses sitting on the market since we moved in around May. When we were driving around last weekend there was an open house sign on almost every block in our area.

truth will find you says

You are right.

The bottom was years ago, when you were on this forum, and decided not to buy. EPIC STUPID DECISION!!!!!

Most people never see the next drop coming. Congrats on being most people.

Tell me about my stupid decision when prices drop way below the last crash, and your crap-shack, that you only own the debt for, is underwater.

landtof says

job growth has been steady.

That's highly dependent on the sector. If you're in bio-tech or SW yes. Just about anything else... All I know is I don't remember seeing homeless encampments on every bridge over the 5 downtown.

NuttBoxer says

Strategist says

You base the most important decision of your life i.e. buying a house, based on what a realtor says?

How often do you hear a realtor tell you not to buy?

When they tell you to sell.

NuttBoxer says

Most people never see the next drop coming. Congrats on being most people.

And you think your opinion matters? you, on this forum decided buying didn't make sense, only to watch prices go up by 60%.... Out of curiousity, what percent increase would it take for a complete idiot like you to recognize a mistake? Now, rents are increasing, enjoy taking it up the ass for your stupidity!

$22,500 collected each month, in rent, $10,200 in mortgage+tax+insurance+HOA. (includes reducing debt by $2500 a month) SO, tell me again you moronic loser about how smart you were not to buy!!!

First rule: If a landlord would not buy it to rent out, you probably should not buy it either. Landlords generally do math pretty well and are concerned with fundamental valuations based on rents.

Second rule: If a house is being advertised, it's too expensive. Advertising is an attempt to get people to overpay for houses that the realtors themselves didn't want (they get to see all those houses first). You don't want to be the guy who paid more than anyone else would, which is the very definition of the retail buyer. You want the stealth houses that are about to come on the market because of death, divorce, bankruptcy (well, the misfortune of others). Another way to put it: if a realtor is involved, it's too late. And then you have to pay the realtors for the service of overcharging you.

Third rule: Random shit happens. Facebook might decide to locate in your neighborhood, driving prices up. Or might decide to move away, taking prices down.

rando says

You want the stealth houses that are about to come on the market because of death, divorce, bankruptcy (well, the misfortune of others). Another way to put it: if a realtor is involved, it's too late.

bullcrap. those situations almost never exist, the house gets listed anyways. It just looks like crap, and guess what? everyone wants the nice looking house, so buy the crappy looking ones and fix them up.

just an FYI for my fans who have been closely following my investment moves, i just received an appraisal report today for a refi. it says my house has gone up 35% since i bought it in dec 2012.

I'm actually in escrow right now, got a contingent offer accepted on our dream house, and managed to sell the smaller house we bought several years ago in 4 days with appointment-only showing for above asking. This is in north Orange County. A coworker in Azusa sold his large house in less than a week for well over asking. Chinese with money in that case.
The market is red hot, and going up if I have to guess.

NuttBoxer says

Tell me about my stupid decision when prices drop way below the last crash,

I'm not inclined to believe that crash will cause prices to drop below last crash. The loan standards have tightened up since last time and not seeing the same volume of arm loans, among other things

rando says

realtors themselves didn't want (they get to see all those houses first).

Only the very savvy and cunning of the lot. Most aren't that smart

NuttBoxer says

I live by a country club, and I've seen houses sitting on the market since we moved in around May. When we were driving around last weekend there was an open house sign on almost every block in our area.

bullshit, you live in south county - let's put a realistic definition on "nice area," please.

NuttBoxer says

That's highly dependent on the sector. If you're in bio-tech or SW yes. Just about anything else... All I know is I don't remember seeing homeless encampments on every bridge over the 5 downtown.

so you expect garbage collectors to by housing in nice areas? fascinating.

rando says

First rule: If a landlord would not buy it to rent out, you probably should not buy it either. Landlords generally do math pretty well and are concerned with fundamental valuations based on rents.

Second rule: If a house is being advertised, it's too expensive. Advertising is an attempt to get people to overpay for houses that the realtors themselves didn't want (they get to see all those houses first). You don't want to be the guy who paid more than anyone else would, which is the very definition of the retail buyer. You want the stealth houses that are about to come on the market because of death, divorce, bankruptcy (well, the misfortune of others). Another way to put it: if a realtor is involved, it's too late. And then you have to pay the realtors for the service of overcharging you.

Third rule: Random shit happens. Facebook might decide to locate in your neighborhood, driving prices up. Or might decide to move away, taking prices down.

first rule: health of the job market / wages
second rule: supply side / development (costs)
third rule: interest rates / politics / taxes

Sharingmyintelligencewiththedumbasses says

so buy the crappy looking ones and fix them up.

That's actually a good strategy. I knew a guy who just did that over and over as a living, doing most of the work himself and then re-selling. I think he did ok, a bit better than having a real job.

jazz music says

It sure is hard to say that a bottom will happen according to the laws of supply and demand when it seems the whole world is conspiring to keep housing prices afloat.

Now you may see devastated markets, housing and all equities, if the US national debt reaches a point to where it can no longer float higher then interest rates can no longer be held down

This is very true.

Everyone is for "supply and demand" when it's working in their favor. Then when it turns, they demand that the government directly violate supply and demand and force house prices to stop falling by whatever means necessary.

Strategist says

When they tell you to sell.

Touche, but the context of my conversation was renter/realtor.

Sharingmyintelligencewiththedumbasses says

only to watch prices go up by 60%

Inflation adjusted? Of course not, you don't even understand the concept. You also don't understand realized gains vs actual, or have the foggiest clue what liquidity is. Asset to debt ratio, not a clue as well, since your so called asset carries the largest debt of any "investment" the average consumer ever makes.

Sharingmyintelligencewiththedumbasses says

$22,500 collected each month, in rent, $10,200 in mortgage+tax+insurance+HOA. (includes reducing debt by $2500 a month)

Sources, who needs 'em when you routinely make ASSumptions about everything.

MMR says

I'm not inclined to believe that crash will cause prices to drop below last crash. The loan standards have tightened up since last time and not seeing the same volume of arm loans, among other things

My assertion is based on core economic issues that haven't changed at all(manipulation, bloated government spending, higher taxation, tons of leveraging at the federal level, an economy where leveraging is still high in general). Read Rothbard's theory on boom/bust cycles. Each bust will be bigger, and worse until the manipulating agency is destroyed, and things are allowed to self correct. So big picture, prices will go lower, and another crash is inevitable.

Compartmentalization of education has led to false assumptions about the lack of interrelation and causation in our world.

Debt is interesting, because it's all just promises of future labor by obedient workers.

So it may be possible to scientifically predict how much debt cannot be paid back. For example, debt which promises more years of work than are available when you multiply people times years.

landtof says

bullshit, you live in south county - let's put a realistic definition on "nice area," please.

Do you live in SD?

http://www.sandiegocountryclub.org/club/scripts/home/home.asp

https://www.google.com/maps/@32.6242128,-117.0624055,3a,75y,252.74h,86.82t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sT9gR_bKSKA6hoHQLTRCKXA!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

landtof says

so you expect garbage collectors to by housing in nice areas? fascinating.

You didn't say garbagemen, you said job growth, as in every sector. You exaggerated to try to sound right, and were called out on it. Take your lumps like a man, or stop posting inaccurate information.

rando says

Then it turns

These used to be called "corrections" and were allowed to play out in a recession to get rid of the deadwood, but not anymore.

NuttBoxer says

Do you live in SD?

http://www.sandiegocountryclub.org/club/scripts/home/home.asp

https://www.google.com/maps/@32.6242128,-117.0624055,3a,75y,252.74h,86.82t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sT9gR_bKSKA6hoHQLTRCKXA!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

are you fucking kidding me? you just posted south county, chula juana dude - that area SUCKS - have you any idea what a real CC is, where people live behind guarded gates?

NuttBoxer says

You didn't say garbagemen, you said job growth, as in every sector. You exaggerated to try to sound right, and were called out on it. Take your lumps like a man, or stop posting inaccurate information.

now you've really uncovered just how fucking stupid you are.

what part of
landtof says

job growth has been steady.

makes me exaggerate anything? what's even funnier is that you think you "called me out on it" when you YOU SAID biotech and software was growing (which would totally SUPPORT price increases in NICE AREAS anyway).

admit it - housing is not your strong suit. you lost out big time, and are completely unqualified to be discussing it with anyone who is contemplating a purchase. keep waiting for the "next crash" you fucking dumbass!

truth will find you says

You are right.

The bottom was years ago, when you were on this forum, and decided not to buy. EPIC STUPID DECISION!!!!!

how can anyone look at that chart and believe a word nutt boxer says about housing, after he declined to purchase in 2012?

NuttBoxer says

Most people never see the next drop coming. Congrats on being most people.

Tell me about my stupid decision when prices drop way below the last crash, and your crap-shack, that you only own the debt for, is underwater.

YOU obviously didn't see the price increase coming. Seriously, prices went up 60% since you, on this forum, decided not to buy... what percent up would it take for you to admit it was a mistake?

"congrats on being most people" - sure. EVERY mortgage I have is less than 50% of rent I collect. every. one.

It would be hard to find a more direct example of someone too stupid to recognize their own stupidity!

I am from Bay Area, so I don't know shit about San Diego. my own rule is straight forward. I do not risk my freedom for profit or the pleasure of consumption. I like one definition of wealth which says 'wealth is number of months you can live without having to work'. my wealth is about 5 years.
if buying the house extend my wealth because rent can cover expenses, the. do it. if buying shrink my wealth from say 5 years to 1 year, fuck it.
I think the reason for the entire system to keep price high and give out 30 year loans and keeps rewarding debt driven consumption in the name of investment is that the system do not want people to be free.

landtof says

are you fucking kidding me? you just posted south county, chula juana dude - that area SUCKS - have you any idea what a real CC is, where people live behind guarded gates?

You don't live here, obviously. Or you want to exaggerate nice to OC levels, rather than just good neighborhoods, nice houses, good schools, low crime. FYI, Chula Vista was, and may still be the ONLY cash positive city in SD county. Ignorant, and exaggerating, I'm beginning to see a theme in your posts.

As to the charts you posted which I can safely assume are government figures, well, we all know how accurate those are. But let's assume they are even slightly valid. The top growing industries are all low income, or government. If public sector is also the largest job sector, your economy is fucked, because government doesn't produce anything, and needs taxes in order to pay their employees. It actually looks like a trashman's salary would be an accurate barometer for your charts, in which case I'd refer you to:

landtof says

so you expect garbage collectors to by housing in nice areas? fascinating.

landtof says

how can anyone look at that chart and believe a word nutt boxer says about housing, after he declined to purchase in 2012?

You obviously never heard of a "head and shoulders" graph. Of course not. In your fantasy world charts NEVER go down!