patrick.net

Strategist says

Those at a 50% LTV should get loans......no questions asked. 4% rate of return on a risk free loan is damn good to any investor.

Very small amount of all loans being doing, very small people even apply with this type of loan profile

Here's a trick. Did you know this Logan? In some California counties you can transfer your low low prop 13 tax base to a new house.
So lets say you buy a house for $850K. Your property tax will be roughly $10,000. Your old property tax was $3,500. If you sell your old home for at least $850K, you can keep your $3,500 property tax rate. You must be 55 +. You have 2 years to sell your old home at $850K + giving you an opportunity to let prices rise if you are a little bit short.
Ironman, how much would the property tax be on a $850K home out in NJ? $25,000 per year? Look at this scenario:
$50.00 per month gasoline cost, because I use electricity. Your cost $500 per month.
$3,500 property tax instead of $25K.
Do you still want me to move to NJ?

Logan Mohtashami says

Strategist says

Those at a 50% LTV should get loans......no questions asked. 4% rate of return on a risk free loan is damn good to any investor.

Very small amount of all loans being doing, very small people even apply with this type of loan profile

Because they don't know where to apply, or wether these loans even exist.

Strategist says

Did you know this Logan? In some California counties you can transfer your low low prop 13 tax base to a new house.

Did you really just ask me that question ;-)

Strategist says

Because they don't know where to apply, or wether these loans even exist.

It's call a Rich Man's collateral loan, it's less than 2% of all mortgages done in America even if that.

Only way in real terms you get 50% LTV is if you're downsizing

This data line like I said in the interview is all about demand, demand and demand

It's not inventory, it's not rates, it's not tight lending

It's all about capacity

This is why I call Housing Bulls the Sister/Brother of Gold Bugs they both come from the same mama, they just spin their own agenda like crazy

Logan Mohtashami says

Strategist says

Did you know this Logan? In some California counties you can transfer your low low prop 13 tax base to a new house.

Did you really just ask me that question ;-)

I was hoping you did not know that. :(

Strategist says

I was hoping you did not know that. :(

When My parents sell their home this year, It's the price they got back in 1996

Logan Mohtashami says

It's all about capacity

Will that change?

http://patrick.net/Does+comparative+advantage+trump+this%3F

Ironman says

4 bed, 3 bath, 2558 sq. ft.

Taxes: $6,655

http://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Orange-County-CA/house_type/25623786_zpid/1286_rid/2-_beds/800000-900000_price/2941-3308_mp/featured_sort/33.661353,-117.626238,33.594603,-117.779017_rect/12_zm/0_mmm/

Hilarious that's my X fiance home model, goes for over 1 million in Nellie Gail Ranch

indigenous says

Will that change?

I am not a big believer on robots taking away home buyers, robots and technology impact the lower level economic food chain and still no one can show where technology and robots have killed the jobs in this chart

You did watch the video, it is only 15 minutes.

Soon will be talking about the election... speaking of which Mr. Clinton and my wife ;-)

Is that your idea of a smooth segue?

indigenous says

You did watch the video, it is only 15 minutes.

and technology will create new set of jobs as well, plus that duration period is way out there too. 30 years ago they said technology would take away jobs and never counted on medical device sector and social media as actual job sectors

A better thesis at least for me is that, the kind of new job sectors don't need that much employment in terms of numbers.

However, like all demographics, old people retire and younger workers take their place, the trend is important and trend still looks good for America

indigenous says

segue?

Just throwing out some political love, Trump is actually moving up on the $ pols which gives him even more cred to be the Republican choice

So you are saying that comparative advantage trumps the robot prediction?

Logan Mohtashami says

Just throwing out some political love, Trump is actually moving up on the $ pols which gives him even more cred to be the Republican choice

But not enough to beat Hillary I fear, those nasty demographics you talk about are not in the Donald's favor.

indigenous says

Donald's favor.

So far at this point I have Trump losing by 7 million and 332 E. Votes against Clinton

Logan Mohtashami says

So far at this point I have Trump losing by 7 million and 332 E. Votes against Clinton

How do you arrive at that conclusion? Not that the bookies disagree with you.

IOW learn me something,

indigenous says

How do you arrive at that conclusion? Not that the bookies disagree with you.

IOW learn me something,

Map out states 2012 to 2016 How those states will vote again, growing base for each party President Obama won by 5 million, take the key 6 and 7 States and how it looks like they will vote...

Trump, is a horrific general candidate because some Republicans won't vote for him, so add them up together... so far that's what I get

That is good work. Needless to say you see Hillary taking O hi O and Fla.

indigenous says

O hi O and Fla.

Rubio is the man, I think he could take FLA ... not sure on Ohio ....

Trump and Cruz just aren't popular general election people, however, Cruz would be much better than Trump, because Cruz is politically slick where Trump is just doing his thing for his ego

Would have to think Hillary on Ohio because of your demographics.

indigenous says

demographics.

90% of the labor force growth in the next decade are coming from Hispanics, the Republicans are killing themselves before demographics do

Hispanics vote democrat

indigenous says

Hispanics vote democrat

Not all, but majority yes and with this group of Republicans they're going to make very difficult for Hispanics to not vote democrat for the rest of the century

That does not bode well for the Rs for a very long time. If not for the King dollar this country would so be toast.

indigenous says

That does not bode well for the Rs for a very long time.

I see you as a Dana Rohrabacher guy

John Campbell or his replacement. Although strictly speaking they are both spendthrifts so I'm agin em.

Ironman says

The same thing could happen for Hillary/Bernie.

I wish you were right. But all of the bookies are saying it is going to be Hillary.

Another thing to keep in mind is women suffrage. Which Anne Coulter says was the beginning of the end.

indigenous says

Ironman says

The same thing could happen for Hillary/Bernie.

I wish you were right. But all of the bookies are saying it is going to be Hillary.

Hillary is the odds on favorite. The favorite does not always win.

Here are the $ Odds

https://primary.guide/

Ironman says

Only if the FBI doesn't get to her first...

Damn that would be sweet. If they do that to Martha Stewart over bullshit charges what could they do to Hillary?

Not much juice in this cycle, which was my core thesis back 2010, things will get better in years 2020-2024

We are almost done with the fall of home ownership

I was always tag lining 62.2%-62.7% being the real low, a lot of that has to due to foreclosures and short sales going against renter nation in this cycle.

With distress supplies down and we got as low as 63.4% in this cycle, the downside is limited at this point, in the next decade it decade it should be higher than what we have this cycle

A interesting note is that Boomers have downsized to apartments, That is still a big variable out their but for the most part the massive decline is done

Logan Mohtashami says

a lot of that has to due to foreclosures and short sales

a lot of that has to do with foreclosures and short sales

or

a lot of that was due to foreclosures and short sales

P N Dr Lo R says

a lot of that was due to foreclosures and short sales

Same thing in what I am trying to say

Where are all the Boomerang Buyers?

Well Chapter 7 aren't coming back anytime soon and Chapter 13 have to qualify with incomes and assets which is going to be a hard struggle for a lot of them.

Gen X got wiped out in the last cycle, so you took off the Grid a portion of the Move up buyers
Then on top of that you still have some Housing bubble debt in the system which in the interview I have explained limits the capacity of move up buyers

Demographics was the easy one, this one I still don't get why a lot people didn't understand this back in 2010... It's not a 1 to 1 ratio with demographics, we were a very young and old country lacking a lot middle game

All 3 together.. You got this ...

The reality that 2014/2015 years 6 and 7 of the economic cycle with rising inventory and lower rates have produced the 2 worst years on purchase applications ever recorded once adjusting to population and 2014 was the low point in the cycle headline as well

Betting markets, chances of winning the general election:
Clinton 53.2%
Rubio 13.6%
Trump 13%
Sanders 6.8%
Cruz 6.2%
http://bit.ly/22XBvEd