patrick.net

return to normal:

con:
* corporate profits are nowhere near levels that can sustain rate hikes (since increasing profits are needed to service debt at higher rates and to float stock/asset prices). this will certainly derail the economic expansion.

pro:
* the passage of time will not fix the problem; more ZIRP will add even more risk over time. "pay now or pay later"

landtof says

return to normal:

I actually don't believe in the thesis of normalization rate or returning to what some deem to be normal

However the next decade will be a lot better than this current when due to #Demographics

The irony the Anti American bears have been wrong so long that the economic cycle is now going into year 8 of positive growth
and the world is slowing down around it. Cycles run in 7-10 year life spam and this one is still holding up

This all with a lack of growth of prime working age Americans which will change, especially years 2020 2024

The average of 2Q's GDP deflator, median CPI and core CPI: 2.43%. https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1LU7

As always

Stay in school kids, we have concerted poverty in America, areas where we have a lack of education, there is where the big problem is at in terms of poverty economics

College educated Americas peak unemployment rate was at 5% in the Great Recession and now standing at 2.5%

https://vine.co/v/eTTFpvnqemZ

The cycle is a bit long the tooth too, so getting off ZIRP doesn't mean the mega hike cycle like we saw in 2004 to 2006
but small step because we don't need emergency interest rate policy anymore

Core PCE YOY in the latter half of the 90s (Fed didn't have an inflation target back then)

Government jobs have had their worst economic cycle ever, even they are playing a very small role but a positive roll now

Obvious with the oil collapse it has impacted the manufacturing side of ISM, but with King Dollar we have no currency induced inflation and ISM service doing well

The world felling the inflation impact though

The 1st hike in 7 years, ZIRP for years. Hardly an agonizing decision. ..

Yea the FOMC, has "saved" us.

Logan Mohtashami says

As always

Stay in school kids, we have concerted poverty in America, areas where we have a lack of education, there is where the big problem is at in terms of poverty economics

What degree do RE Agents get?

indigenous says

What degree do RE Agents get?

You don't need a degree actually to be a R.E. agent

The poorest, highest unemployment rate, least median income, higher incarceration rate Americans have one thing in common

They didn't graduate high school and unless you have a specific skill set that makes money they didn't graduate college either

Logan Mohtashami says

The irony the Anti American bears have been wrong so long that the economic cycle is now going into year 8 of positive growth

and the world is slowing down around it. Cycles run in 7-10 year life spam and this one is still holding up

That statement is beyond ignorant. Growing the money supply is not economic growth.

BACHELOR’S DEGREE MAJOR MEDIAN STARTING SALARY 2015

Business $49,035

Engineering $64,367

Liberal arts and Humanities $36,237

All $45,478

don't finish high school, then you're really at a disadvantage, don't go to college then you need a specific skill set that makes money ( Trade show skills, or something like welding)

indigenous says

That statement is beyond ignorant. Growing the money supply is not economic growth.

Then where is the recession, Anti American Bears have been wrong for 8 years, I don't even think they know that they have been wrong

The group I am talking about are the Perma Bears that cry every year that we are on a Job Loss Recession, Depression, that have been more wrong than any group I have seen in the last 34 years.

You can't have a Job Loss recession without unemployment claims rising, I know that sounds so simple to understand but the Perma Bears don't understand the function of unemployment claims

Logan Mohtashami says

The poorest, highest unemployment rate, least median income, higher incarceration rate Americans have one thing in common

They didn't graduate high school and unless you have a specific skill set that makes money they didn't graduate college either

The subject is more nuanced than that. What percentage of the college graduates have degrees but don't work in the field they got the degrees in? How many went to college even though they were not remotely qualified to go to college? How many end up with student dept that will take them decades to pay off? Should the maxim be stay in school long enough to get a government job? That way as a Federal employee you will receive twice the market rate in wages. Of the college graduates in your statistics how many of them make enough to buy house and support a family?

indigenous says

The subject is more nuanced than that. What percentage of the college graduates have degrees but don't work in the field they got the degrees in? How many went to college even though they were not remotely qualified to go to college? How many end up with student dept that will take them decades to pay off? Should the maxim be stay in school long enough to get a government job? That way as a Federal employee you will receive twice the market rate in wages. Of the college graduates in your statistics how many of them make enough to buy house and support a family?

If you don't graduate High School or go to college you're at the bottom level of

Income
Liquid Assets

Highest level of government welfare programs
Highest level of criminal record activity

The data is so one sided that I honestly believe the anti education crowd who say don't need to graduate High School or go to college really are want I call Anti Human progress crowd.

That there is such a darkness in their own life that they want everyone to be as miserable as them

Employment:
.

I can post 10,000 charts to show that high school drop outs and non college grads are at the bottom of the economic pool chain in every category

Prime working age Americans 25-54 ages are near 81% and it has gone lower in each on the cycles from the past 2 cycles
A lot of those not working ages 25-54 are high school drop outs, non college educated American, those with criminal records makes it harder for them to find work out of jail

This is the key data line

16-24 and 55 and over aren't that significant in economic output,

BTW do you have a degree?

Conflating all college degrees together is it's own fallacy. The cost of college has to be considered, as in steer clear of the pricey ones. What percentage of those degrees are end up in government jobs?

Labor force flows from employed to unemployed as a % of the labor force -- it doesn't get any better: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1LWb …

indigenous says

BTW do you have a degree?

Yes I have a degree, Major & Minor 2 homes in So Cal and net worth of roughly 850K , So not rich by CA standards but good enough to live a good life

indigenous says

The cost of college has to be considered, as in steer clear of the pricey ones.

70% of student loan debt is under 14K
13% of it is 50K -100K
3% is over 100K

Graduate School is big bulk of the higher end debt

Don't worry about the educated Asians, Indians, and those getting high tech or medical degrees they make good money

The problem group is 30% of all student loan debt are held by college dropouts and they are by far the highest % of people who are defaulted on their student loan debt

So the problem group once again, college drop outs

indigenous says

What percentage of those degrees are end up in government jobs?

Government jobs are only 22 million out of over 151 million jobs, very small post recovery government jobs in this cycle, in fact it's been the weakest government jobs market post WWII by a lot

We do have a concentrated poverty problem in America, this group right here is struggling big time

- High School Drop outs
- Non College educated Americans
- Those with a drug problem
- Those with a current criminal activity lifestyle and those who aren't in jail but have a criminal record

This group of Americans I believe 100% are having a hard time in America today

So how worried are we supposed to be if these guys have $100k in student debt?

David uses some of my articles on his blog, but that actually is too bullish of a manufacturing outlook, only due to the oil boom, while construction jobs have had their best 12 months in 20 years, the manufacturing bust has been in a long time working

-Globalization
-Technology
-Debt
-Demographics

I would use this chart to show how bad manufacturing has gotten

Have to remember a huge bulk of the firing in the great recession came from high school drop outs and non college educated Americans
Peak unemployment rate during the Great Recession was 5% for College grads

High School drop outs got dinged big time

indigenous says

Logan Mohtashami says

David uses some of my articles on his blog

Example?

indigenous says

Example?

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/housing-starts-and-permits-still-dwelling-at-historic-bottems/

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/housing-scoreboard-at-mid-2014-indicators-heading-south-except-for-wealthy/

Logan Mohtashami says

Have to remember a huge bulk of the firing in the great recession came from high school drop outs and non college educated Americans

Or the demand for college graduates is over stated...

indigenous says

Or the demand for college graduates is over stated...

The High School Drop Outs and Non College educated Americans primarily work in the service job sector, A huge portion of the min wage workers are high school drop outs and non college educated Americans

Most good paying companies won't even look at your resume if you have high school drop out or no college education

You really need a trade show skill to make a living then

On another note I would recommend Lee Adler Wall Street Examiner http://wallstreetexaminer.com/
He is a friend and has some good work and I think you will like his writing

Then what would you say about he breadwinner jobs?

Manufacturing is going to go the way of farming but the US is still the largest manufacturing company in the world, 40% larger than China.

indigenous says

Then what would you say about he breadwinner jobs?

Manufacturing is going to go the way of farming but the US is still the largest manufacturing company in the world, 40% larger than China

Globalization
Technology
Debt
Demographics

Have made it a world of have's and have not's

This is why if you're not going to finish high school or go to college you better get a good skill set degree your dollar doesn't go as much as it used too