patrick.net

Fine, I will take another look.

Starts tomorrow. Still time to sign up!

What is it I should look for in the website?

I recall people using Elliott Wave to try and predict 5th wave events. That none of them happened, bothers them about as much as Harold Camping followers. Every apocalypse prediction is subject to retroactive changes.

Marks sign up to your left.

Dan8267 says

Marks sign up to your left.

Dan, do you use Elliott Wave?

I prefer my Eliot "Wave," spelled with 1 L and 1 T.

Time present and time past
Are both perhaps present in time future
And time future contained in time past.
If all time is eternally present
All time is unredeemable.
What might have been is an abstraction
Remaining a perpetual possibility
Only in a world of speculation.

Anyhow, Elliott Wave might still be useful to get the *current* picture of mass movements.

All I could see on their website was one video that did not explain much.

Elliott Wave Theory is grossly misunderstood. Part of the problem has to do with Prechter's prediction of a major collapse in the stock markets in 1995. The collapse didn't start for another 5 years. But what has been occurring since 2000, is a fourth wave correction of Supercycle degree. It has been playing out for 14 years and could continue for another three or four years. Although that sounds like a long time, in terms of the age of the Supercycle degree wave, it's not that long.

The current Supercycle wave began in the early 1700s, a 300 year old wave, so far. Prechter was about 5 years early on the call of the "orthodox" top which occurred in 2000. Since then the markets have gone up and down, 2008 being extremely down then seemingly gaining it all back in less than 6 years. Those kinds of movements make no sense to a layman. The rally since 2009 seems positive to most people, but in Elliott Wave terms, the rally since 2009 has been a "bear market" rally.

In technical Elliott Wave language, since the 2000 top, the Dow has formed what is called an "expanded flat". All corrections form a three step A-B-C. Complex corrections (which this one is) can form double and even triple A-B-Cs. This one is a double. The A and B waves have (likely) completed as of this week, the C wave will now take the Dow to a low below the low of March 2009. That is the nature of an expanded flat.

All of this is befuddeling to those that see markets in terms of months or quarters or even a couple of years, which the vast majority of people do. Prechter has been accused of being a "perma bear" because he has been predicting an eventual deflationary economic collapse for almost 20 years. That makes no sense to most people. But he is simply tracking the waves as they play out. Some have accused him of "missing the 2000 top call" by 5 years. But missing the top of a 300 year old wave by 5 years is about a 1.6% margin of error, hardly a fair accusation. Wave C should bottom before the end of this decade and when it does Prechter will turn bullish again.

That the current expanded flat correction has taken 15 years to complete is also not that long in terms of the 300 years the wave has been forming. Fifteen years is only about 5% of the entire wave and well within nominal lenghts of time of exoanded flats at lesser degrees.

indigenous says

What is it I should look for in the website?

indigenous says

All I could see on their website was one video that did not explain much.

The EWI website opens up when you subscribe to their "CLUB EWI". There are tutorials, videos, the entire bible, "Elliott Wave Principle" is available online. There are articles of all kinds explaining how EW is applied to the various asset families. There are PDF e-books on a host of subjects from deflation to the role of sentiment to using Fibonacci numbers. There are FAQs with explanations of the most popular questions. All of it is absolutely free.

Anyone who joins this week also gets complete access to a free look at all of EWIs services, which are enormous. They cover the globe from currencies to equities to bonds. The mystery goes away when you truly know what they do instead of listening to the naysayers who have no clue.

And you may even begin to understand how I was able to make this call last Sunday:

S&P 500 Elliott Wave update for week ending 9/19/2014 - major top likely in
http://patrick.net/?p=1249714

I scanned some of the stuff on the website.

The Elliott Wave is based on crowd thinking?

It predicted the housing melt down, not a great accomplishment, as who did not.

It predicted the price of oil dropping that was more interesting.

How well does the Elliott Wave work with the Yellin, Bernanke, Greenspan put in place?

indigenous says

How well does the Elliott Wave work with the Yellin, Bernanke, Greenspan put in place?

Elliott Waves are a representation of subconscious social mood. You referred to it "crowd thinking". It's more like "crowd feeling". R.N. Elliott contended that waves of human emotion show up in current events as recognizable patterns. The waves are natural reactions to collective mood swings.

It is important to understand that mood is subconscious, reactive. You don't wake up one morning and say, "I'll think I will be sullen today". If you are, it's because factors in your life have combined in such a way to cause you feel down. Thus, you express how you feel through your actions.

Elliot waves can be seen in everything that humans do. Hemlines go up when the crowd is generally happy, they go down when depressed. Movies are bright and cheery when the crowd is happy, dark and morose when their not. That's a generality, of course, but you get the point.

The stock market is one place where the crowd can express their mood in near real-time. Upbeat, emboldened, they buy stocks. fearful or concerned, they sell them. Elliott waves display that emotion in the predictable patterns that those who learn to can recognize.

As for anything that Yellen or Bernanke would say -- or some exogenous event such as 911 or the Ukranian situation -- they have NO real and lasting effect on the mood of the herd as individual events. Elliott correctly noted that NEWS does not move markets, at least not more that a few hours or a day or so. Endogenous social mood drives market trends, nothing else. That collective mood is created by the subconscious feelings of the herd about a myriad of things, news just being one them. I laugh when I hear pundits trying to explain why the markets went down on good news, or up on bad news, like poor Friday jobs numbers or something.

Elliott Waves are "robust fractals", they form the same patterns at multiple degrees. Just like waves in the ocean, they all look alike, although no two are exactly alike, differing primarily in size and duration.

Analysis is complicated in the beginning. You don't learn it well in a day or a month or even a year. That is why there are so many horror stories of traders losing everything trying to apply Elliott Wave Theory. Some people never figure it out because they have opposing biases. Like any other form of technical analysis, Elliott Wave theory can be learned by anyone who is willing to put in the time. There are no shortcuts.

But while there are no shortcuts, EWIs market services are as much a tutorial on theory as they are advisories of market conditions and direction. Subscribers to EWI's mpnthly news letters, 'Elliott Wave Theorist' and 'Elliott Wave Financial Forecast' are taught "why" the forecast was presented as it was ( in EW terms), not just "we think the market will head down now". The details of the waves patterns are explained with page number references to main guide by Frost and Prechter, the 'Elliott Wave Principle".

Join the EWI CLUB and look at the free market update services they are offering this week, particularly the three times weekly 'Short-term Update' which comes out every Mon/Wed/Fri. It is, itself, one continuous tutorial on EW theory.

EWI has never offered a free look at ALL their services before. It could be a long time before they ever do it again, if they ever do. If you are going to seriously look at Elliott Wave theory, now is the time to do it.

How does Elliott Wave compare to Gann analysis?

Peter P says

How does Elliott Wave compared to Gann analysis?

I know people who use Gann's methods and do well with it, however, I don't know much about it.

darlag says

The stock market is one place where the crowd can express their mood in near real-time. Upbeat, emboldened, they buy stocks. fearful or concerned, they sell them. Elliott waves display that emotion in the predictable patterns that those who learn to can recognize.

Ok going with that example, does the Fed not effect their subconscious emotion by almost guaranteeing that stock prices will go up?

The Elliott Wave they talk about where oil lost 78% of it's price in a 5 month period coincides with with the housing bust? Yet you would say this was because of crowd feeling?

In order for this to have any work ability it must repeat itself otherwise it is not predictable.

The wave patterns are predictably recognizable. That should be the primary focus of any Elliott Wave analyst. That exogenous events are taking place is a fact, but which events are most influencing the wave structure is not of concern. You can not know that answer by guessing or speculating. One day there might be a Tsunami in Japan, the next a Fed meeting, the following day good news from the jobs report. Combined, do the events create a positive (buying) mood or a negative (selling) mood? You can speculate if you want, pundits do everyday, but you are guessing. The right way is to simply observe the wave structure. It tells you everything you need to know. Structure first, everything else second.

indigenous says

does the Fed not effect their subconscious emotion by almost guaranteeing that stock prices will go up?

From an Elliott Wave perspective, no. Those would be conscious thoughts. How many times do you hear "As long as the Fed keeps printing, the markets will keep rising. Don't bet against the Fed!" And while people are voicing their rationalization of why the market is rising and why they keep investing/trading, subconsciously they are growing concerned, taking some money off the table here and there, justifying it somehow as "taking profits" or "re-balancing". When enough of the crowd is similarly involved to the degree that the trend begins to move opposite, then it again becomes a conscious act. Wave structures, particularly at the end of trends, tell you that the crowd is having (subconscious) second thoughts about their bullish (or bearish) attitude. You can literally see it in the waves.

This is a general description of the herd mentality over a typical Elliott Wave cycle:

http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/introduction-to-the-elliott-wave-principle-the-key-to-understanding-market-behaviorpart-2-wave-psychology/

darlag says

I know people who use Gann's methods

Great guy, too bad they killed him off in Series B.