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smaulgld
2014 Jul 21, 1:14pm
The market goes down " a little" on gaza and Ukraine
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/07/21/stock-market-live-blog-pulling-back-on-ukraine-gaza-worries-allergan-climbs/
How about it should go down on stocks being massively over valued?
The market goes down " a little" on gaza and Ukraine
How about it should go down on stocks being massively over valued?
Hater.
smaulgld
2014 Jul 21, 10:57pm
The market goes down " a little" on gaza and Ukraine
How about it should go down on stocks being massively over valued?
Hater.
It takes a village
darlag
2014 Jul 21, 11:56pm
Is the Stock Market Ready to Collapse?
Yes... if historic money market fund ratios are a good (contrarian) indicator.
JH
2014 Jul 22, 12:23am
How can the stock market go down when the fed can keep creating money to buy up more shares!
I think that once the 99% is sufficiently fleeced there will be no more tax money left with which to prop the economy. Then the top 0.1% will revolt!!
smaulgld
2014 Jul 22, 12:24am
How can the stock market go down when the fed can keep creating money to buy up more shares!
I think that once the 99% is sufficiently fleeced there will be no more tax money left with which to prop the economy. Then the top 0.1% will revolt!!
That's the plan
Strategist
2014 Jul 22, 12:28am
How can the stock market go down when the fed can keep creating money to buy up more shares!
I think that once the 99% is sufficiently fleeced there will be no more tax money left with which to prop the economy. Then the top 0.1% will revolt!!
That's the plan
This is discriminating a minority. We need special rights and protection for them.
smaulgld
2014 Jul 22, 10:31am
This is discriminating a minority. We need special rights and protection for them.
Welfare for the rich! Oh, we have that already its called subsidies and the U.S. Tax Code
Strategist
2014 Jul 22, 10:36am
This is discriminating a minority. We need special rights and protection for them.
Welfare for the rich! Oh, we have that already its called subsidies and the U.S. Tax Code
We don't want to get rid of them...that would be committing genocide.
darlag
2014 Aug 26, 2:08am
Yes, the stock market is near collapse... my best Elliott Wave count as of last Friday.
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/sp-500-indexinterim-elliott-wave-update-for-week-ending-8222014/
smaulgld
2014 Aug 26, 2:38am
Interesting!
If you read any of my writings there is a consistent theme:
regarding Housing, the stock market and gold and silver:
Housing-macro economics make it easier to track the direction of prices because even if the Fed's monetary policy is geared towards boosting home prices there is a limit to what people can pay and how many people can pay higher prices.
With a weak job market and tepid wage growth, rising home prices are difficult to sustain in all but a few markets
My prediction last year, that year over year come this year, prices will stop rising was a prediction that I could make with confidence because you can't get water out of a stone.
Stock Market- my writings make clear that with companies buying back their own shares and sovereign funds buying you have the largest participants in the market and they can keep the market afloat even if the fundamentals don't support higher prices.
I have written that it's much easier to pump up (and keep up) a stock market bubble than a real estate bubble. Once people accept sky high valuations in stocks they can continue to rise. Rising stock prices attracts more buyers, but rising home prices repel many.
At some point stock market prices will collapse if they continue to rise with out revenue and earnings growth to justify them.
The anchor post above is not a prediction that the market will crash, but rather an observation that the market is well over priced and could crash. It's even more true today than it was a month ago.
Gold and Silver-these markets are small and the silver market expecially so and they can be subject to monetary policy, geo political events, large players in the market, such that predicting price moves in the gold and silver markets is harder and indeed the moves in these markets are often counter intuitive.
I have noted that in the past two years demand for physical silver has been at an all time high, while the price was dropping and home sales are 3X lower than the mid 2000's and are rising.
smaulgld
2014 Aug 26, 2:48am
The pussy loves to go back and pull other people's predictions and point them out (this thread being a perfect example) when they are wrong, but heaven forbid if someone pulls one of his and does the same thing..
BTW- the blog post above did not make a prediction- it asked a question.
THIS is a prediction http://patrick.net/?p=1227894&c=1121417#comment-1121417
and is what probably prompted someone to resurrect this post
smaulgld
2014 Aug 26, 3:13am
The Fed's STATED purpose of QE was to lower interest rates. It worked. The 10 year was down to 1.6% -then they started talking about tapering in 2013 and the yield nearly reached 3% -an almost 100% increase.
When yields were rising the Fed and its apologists were claiming it was because the economy was accelerating!
Recovery was at hand, escape velocity had been reached we can now taper!
Then as the Fed started tapering something strange happened, yields started to drop not rise. Why was that? was the economy decelerating? Did another mystery buyer of treasury bonds appear out of Belgium and buy nearly to the dollar what the Fed stopped buying, thus keeping rates low.
As rates dropped again this year, home sales did too.
Seems to be a lot of distortions in the market created by Fed monetary policy
smaulgld
2014 Aug 26, 3:25am
I am wondering which is it- are rates dropping because the economy is slowing or are they dropping because the Fed ISN"T buying Treasuries.
Neither squares with what we are being told- the economy is accelerating so rates should be rising not falling.
If the Fed doesn't buy treasuires when they were buying 65-90% of the newly issued treasuries at rock bottom interest rates, who would be the replacement buyer and accept an EVEN lower interest rate?
The Fed's stated purpose is to manipulate markets and the money supply to get the desired result.
My analysis isn't wrong- what is happening doesn't square with the stated purpose of what QE was and what it was supposed to do
If QE was required to lower rates, and we have lower rates without QE, why did they bother?
If rates are supposed to rise because the economy is accelerating, why are they falling?
smaulgld
2014 Aug 26, 3:38am
Interesting that rates are lower yet home sales are down and prices have stopped rising
smaulgld
2014 Aug 26, 5:24am
Currently, the P/E of the S&P 500 is right around 20. The historical average is 15. So on the face of it, the S&P is overvalued by historical measures.
Now this can normalize if earnings rise to compensate. Which is possible.
The p/e's are no longer a proper reflection as many companies bought back massive amounts of their shares removing shares from the outstanding shares making the p/e's seem more reasonable.
Add back those shares and the pe's are not 20 but more like 30X
notice how revenue growth lags far behind "profit" growth.
The profits have been made by firing workers and reducing the share count not by driving higher revenues
John Bailo
2014 Aug 26, 10:12am
Is the Stock Market Ready to Collapse?
One of the big factors for this, I think, is the short-circuiting of the "Asian Market".
The only place that big cap stock companies expected to expand to was Asia...specifically China. Yet, as I read the business press, the Chinese seem like they are ready to fulfill their own needs "in-house". Examples are COMAC, building their own 737. And just yesterday they announced their own PC operating system that will be their Windows. Where exactly is the expansion justifying these high valuations for traditional stocks coming from any way?
MAGA
2014 Aug 26, 12:58pm
I just need the market to hold up another six months and then I'll be out of it, 100%. I'm debt free and have cash in the bank.
Realtor's need not call me.
I just need the market to hold up another six months and then I'll be out of it, 100%. I'm debt free and have cash in the bank.
Realtor's need not call me.
Watch out, you are prime prey for realtors.
smaulgld
2014 Aug 28, 5:23am
Seems our house goose has changed his tune
http://patrick.net/?p=1248503
smaulgld
2014 Oct 15, 12:01am
Market opened down 300 pts, rebounding now down 165 will it recovery of fall again later? http://finance.yahoo.com/news/markets-slammed-economic-fears-u-133630171.html
smaulgld
2014 Oct 15, 1:10am
It's just a bear trap, didn't you get the memo?
Like housing always goes up and the Fed has nothing to do with it!
smaulgld
2014 Oct 15, 2:26am
It's just a bear trap, didn't you get the memo?
Like housing always goes up and the Fed has nothing to do with it!
and gold is going to drop to $1000.
Of course it is! CNBC says so
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000319553&play=1
Volatility is a good thing. An always rising market and expectations of such are unhealthy. The herd will be thinned and eventually emerge stronger. If you are in dollars, you should have some in US equities.
Here is my near term strategy, and keep in mind, I have an MBA from UC Berkeley.
Going long in short duration, higher yielding bonds. Will hold to the end. 1- 1.5 years out. For example, a 6% BAC bond that matures in Dec. 2015. The bet is that the company doesn't go belly up during that time.
This is an early idea without a whole lot of thought. Either that or buy another property. A nice home has real value.
siklidkid
2014 Oct 15, 3:31am
Just heard my boss tell someone "Typical year end profit taking" lol
They made a rule that trading is suspended if the indexes drop too much in one day.
Why not just beef up the rule and not let any stocks go down at all?
HydroCabron
2014 Oct 15, 6:17am
Why not just beef up the rule and not let any stocks go down at all?
Decreasing house prices are now effectively illegal.
Why should real estate be special? Extend this same protection to all asset classes.
smaulgld
2014 Oct 15, 6:19am
Why not just beef up the rule and not let any stocks go down at all?
Decreasing house prices are now effectively illegal.
Why should real estate be special? Extend this same protection to all asset classes.
Mandate home purchases!
Ceffer
2014 Oct 15, 6:24am
With Ebola, you don't have to worry about liquidating since you are already liquidating.
The only thing that will save the economy & stop pandemics is voting Democrat or Republican.
« First « Previous Comments 23 - 61 of 61 Search these comments
Is the Stock Market Ready to Collapse?
Housing Market is Dead
4:14-11:49 Even though interest rates are low and the weather is fine, the housing market is not improving. House prices are too expensive, sales volume is down and the labor market is poor.
The housing "recovery' has been a media event ever since it never happened.
13:56-18:26 discussion of the tenuous position of the stock market with sky high valuations and no underlying fundamentals to support them.
The stock market could do down on a moment’s notice and stay down because the companies are not doing that well and will do worse after a stock market crash, so a swift rebound may not happen even if the Fed attempts to reflate. The Fed appears to be trying to talk down the market a little perhaps to avoid a larger correction or crash.
Ron Paul and Elizabeth Warren vs. The Fed
30:20-35:48 Discussion of the difference between REAL questioning of the Fed, like Ron Paul vs the faux populism fake theater questioning of Elizabeth Warren.
See Ms. Warren and Janet yuck it up after the hearing.
Breaking Point for the Stock Market
41:22-46:10 Market participants certainly know they are participating in a farce. When does the market stop playing along. When is "dot bomb!" called? What happens to the economy when the market crashes? Will investors dive back in expecting a quick rebound?
What Happens after the Next Stock Market Crash?
The stock market is at an all time high but the US economy is nowhere near its all time peak. Sales are down and its not the weather.
Massive Stock Market Collapse?
51:00 prospects for a market collapse are discussed. Bubble companies with no earnings can not be blown back up especially in a post crash economy. Companies will fall to fair value and drift lower as their prospects decline. The Fed would like to ease some froth out of the market to avoid a larger crash. Discussion of central planning and their involvement in the stock market which is close to price fixing.
A Stock Market Crash Ends the Economic "Recovery"
Podcast Summary
http://smaulgld.com/stock-market-ready-to-collapse/
http://www.youtube.com/embed/AoVXakF3qwM
#housing