patrick.net

New York magazine has published a fascinating article by private pilot and science writer Jeff Wise, who researched and developed his theory while running a forum that sounds at times like PatNet or Wikipedia:

Having financed his own research while reading a wide range of ideas, Wise concluded that the plane flew north and landed at an air base leased by Russia in Kazakhstan:

curious2 says

New York magazine has published a fascinating article by private pilot and science writer Jeff Wise, who researched and developed his theory while running a forum that sounds at times like PatNet or Wikipedia:

THis guy is not crazy. However he spent WAY too much time trying to turn very little data into a comprehensive answer.

And you just can't. Thus his results end up in CrazyTown.

INMARSAT has no reason to lie about the data. None.

The terrible thing? That a year later we hadn't made changes to airline fleets so they
REPORT THEIR POSITION FREQUENTLY.

Vicente says

INMARSAT has no reason to lie about the data.

Did Wise accuse INMARSAT of lying?

01:25 (approx) - transponder shut down
Between 1:07 and 1:37 - ACARS shut down

If not due to electrical failure, the ACARS shutdown requires climbing through a trapdoor in full view of cabin crew, and is not an amateur move. Most pilots wouldn't know how to do it, from everything I have read.

All this, plus the sharp turn to the northeast towards the Andaman Sea, occurs at the point of handoff between Malaysian and Vietnamese ATC: the perfect place to disappear a plane without immediately raising an alarm. This is why AirFrance 477 raised so few initial alarms when it went down.

So this looks deliberate, and not an equipment failure. This is what the authorities publicly state, anyway.

The flight continued until at least 8:10, when the Beijing arrival was scheduled for 6:30. Passengers would have noticed, and acted, unless they were dead or otherwise subdued. The sun rising in the "west" would have been another clue.

The pilot was losing his family, due to an affair, and probably going to lose the woman in the affair as well. Makes more sense than Putin stealing the plane for burial at Baikonur, especially since he can buy/steal all the 777s he needs at short notice from airports within Russia.

I have little idea what happened. But, again, I can't imagine they flew for 1:40 longer than the flight time without a passenger revolt, unless the passengers were already dead from depressurization.

curious2 says

Did Wise accuse INMARSAT of lying?

Misstated.

His theory hinges on faked BFO data.

So you have to assume either INMARSAT faked the data, or some clever and well-prepared persons on the plane did.

If you wanted to mislead people into thinking the plane had crashed into the ocean, you could do that with some taped radio chatter. Make sure the world knows exactly where the plane crashed so within hours they are onsite to find fake wreckage floating just where you want.

There's no sane conspiracy that needs a plane hijacked to where he wants it. No foreign power with the resources to do that sort of thing, needs to.

One thing is certain: the Indian Ocean is fricken' vast.

I think of the Atlantic and Pacific as each being two oceans, a North Atlantic/Pacific and a south one.

But the Indian Ocean is just one big puddle of nothing. If you're looking for the Indian Ocean's wallet in a trash bag full of wallets, it's the one that says "Bad Motherfucker" on it.

Vicente says

no sane conspiracy....

You and I seem to disagree about a number of topics (e.g. Obamneycare), and I wonder if this mostly non-sectarian story might shed light on why.

First, as I stated in the OP, I presumed innocence, but then as more facts came in, the "accident" began to appear deliberate, so I have tried to present fairly a variety of theories in this thread. In contrast, you seem to have leapt hastily to false conclusions in both of your comments above: first, you "misstated" Wise's theory; then, you deny the sanity of anyone who disagrees with your apparent position. I presented Wise's theory by quoting what he actually said, while you mischaracterized it with a "misstated" attack and then called it insane.

Second, I can think of several reasons why a conspiracy along the lines of Wise's theory might seem rational. Notice the timing with regard to Ukraine: Russia began moving secret military personnel into Ukraine in February, the Crimea voted to secede March 6, MH370 disappeared March 8, and Russia annexed Crimea in April. If you are planning to annex part of a neighboring country, and you want a distraction, MH370 provides an opportunity. Everybody knows the western commercial media chase any plane crash as obsessively as the dog in "Up" chased squirrels: make a plane disappear, and almost every western "investigative" journalist will be in Malaysia instead of Ukraine. Moving the lead story to Malaysia is very useful if you want to roll heavy artillery across a border without reporters on the ground asking questions; whatever you do, the lead story will continue to be the missing plane, and the pressure on politicians (and from politicians) will be to focus surveillance equipment and military resources on the Indian Ocean, not Ukraine. As an added bonus, you get a $100 million plane for less than $10 million, and you can use that plane with deniability in a future attack against a remote target: as long as nobody knows where the plane went, nobody can say definitively where the attack came from.

Third, scattering fake wreckage would probably have been detected: there wouldn't be enough to account for the whole plane, and something might not match. It would be rather difficult to make a convincing fake wreckage scene of a 777 without using most of the parts from an actual 777, and making them look like they crashed, which would be extremely difficult. Even buying those parts would cost a lot more, and might raise suspicions because those parts aren't typically cash purchases at the local hardware store.

I don't know whether Wise is correct or not, but his theory is plausible and supported by evidence. All other theories have failed to find the plane. It must have gone somewhere. I don't know where it went, but apparently it did not go to any of the places that have been searched. I don't know what happened, but I think you leap to conclusions and those tend to be wrong, and then you amplify your error by denying the honesty or sanity of anyone who disagrees.

BTW, I have my own question about Wise's theory, which is why would the hijackers wait until after takeoff before going into the E/E bay? It seems to me they would more likely have an accomplice in the hangar sneak into the bay prior to takeoff. After all, if a kid can jump the fence at SJC, climb into the landing gear of a plane, and stowaway to Maui, then surely a trained professional can get into the E/E bay. Once inside, he waits for takeoff, listens to the communications, waits for the pilot to say goodnight, then takes over the plane. His accomplices in the cabin don't need to get into the E/E bay themselves; to the contrary, their job is only to make sure no one else gets in there.

curious2 says

after all, if a kid can jump the fence at SJC, climb into the landing gear of a plane, and stowaway to Maui

Totally off topic, but I cannot believe the kid survived such a long plane flight being unconscious for the majority of the flight...wow.

curious2 says

make a plane disappear, and almost every western "investigative" journalist will be in Malaysia instead of Ukraine.

Too complicated.

If you want a "Wag the Dog" distraction, it's easy and cheap to manufacture a scandal every week. Honeypot operations, have them spill on a Secret Service Agent or other well-placed official. Hell one Russian agent could wreak all kinds of havoc on US soil, and doubtless pin it TERRORISTS! Or import some of the weaponized virus they worked so hard on back in the 1980's.

Wankers like large and Byzantine plots.

We don't have a lot of reporters on the ground in Ukraine, because MH370 or not, most people just don't give a shit about it.

Their biggest mistake was listening to the Internet and the US, especially when both were acting in an armchair quarterback capacity throughout the whole episode.

They lost precious time searching plausible possible locations with in the actual flight path. But they caved to internet social media pressure forces, and were sending search fleets depending on the latest Tweet with the word "Science" anywhere in the Tweet. Malaysia should have searched the actual path and let the international know it all community conduct their own fools errand.

If it were anything other than just another horrible air disaster from mechanical error or pilot error. The world would have heard about it with in an hour of the plane going missing.
I don't think there's any extreme terrorist groups that are shy about claiming responsibility for their handy work. Even if the original plan was to hijack then fly them into a landmark, but the plane crashed. The terrorist groups would have still seen that as a win.

Where was Corzine?

Vicente says

Too complicated.

None of the simpler theories have found the plane. “Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.”

CaptainShuddup says

Malaysia should have searched the actual path....

As Wise and others reported, part of the problem was the government of Malaysia misled everyone by withholding information about the actual path. Malaysian authorities showed little interest in actually finding the plane, and seem more interested now in blaming Boeing - without finding the actual evidence that might explain what happened, i.e the plane.

MMR says

Totally off topic....

but a fascinating digression. Only around 20% of stowaways survive attempts like his, and "the Santa Clara case stands out because other survivors chronicled by the FAA suffered maladies like hypothermia and frostbite upon landing; the teenager, in contrast, appears to be fine."

Low temperatures can be protective and can be induced deliberately for surgery:

"Body Temperature May Matter After Cardiac Arrest"

"BioTime deals in ultra-profound hypothermia, the body's last stop before freezing... helping doctors chill their patients during heart, brain, and vascular surgery, where lower temperature translates into more available time on the operating table, less potential for blood loss, and fewer post-op complications."

BioTime is a Bay Area tech company, so I will start a new thread about them.

curious2 says

None of the simpler theories have found the plane. “Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.”

We haven't effectively eliminated even the obvious.

Because even searching the "priority" search zone is hugely expensive. They're only up to 40% of that and already rumblings about scaling back or even ending it.

We knew after Air France 447 that we needed to make regular position reporting mandatory. But governments kowtowed to airlines who didn't want to pay for the service. It should absolutely be mandatory, and YESTERDAY, not something we are still dithering about a year later. Why do we even have a fairly vague area for MH370? Because a few engineers thought MAYBE they should start archiving some log data instead of tossing it as before. No customer requested that. Ultimately the blame for this falls on the AIRLINES, which are so fucking cheap. Who is paying the bills for this search? Not the airline!

Vicente says

blame....

You keep focusing on blame, and calling other people venal, dishonest and/or insane. As your anger grows, you lurch into profanity, which doesn't lead you any closer to the topic. Where is the plane?

curious2 says

Where is the plane?

It seems likely we will never know.

If as some conspiracists think, it's in been landed in Khazakstan well obviously they decided to bury the whole matter. The Lone Gunmen are never going to get to the bottom of that, unless Putin ordered his best assassin to kill all the conspirators, then himself killed the assassin. Large super-secret operations leak eventually.

If as most of the searchers think, it's in the Indian Ocean, it's a deep and nasty place to search. And before long people won't want to pay the search bills because they've moved on to paying for the next disaster.

No other passenger airliner the size of MH370 has ever disappeared without trace. (Though I don't usually cite Wikipedia, they do have a handy list.) There have been other examples of disappearing planes, though hardly any in recent decades.

Vicente, I understand you want governments to require airlines (and thus passengers) to pay for satellite tracking. You have not articulated what size plane you want that requirement to apply to. I don't know one way or the other whether your demand is a good idea or not, but you seem to get very angry about it, and accuse people of bad motives for not doing what you want when in fact it's an extremely rare situation. As with Obamneycare, you seem to skip the whole analysis of costs and benefits, and jump to your preferred conclusion, and impugn the motives or sanity of anyone who doesn't agree with you. Spending more money on whatever occupies the attention of Vicente is not always the best solution in terms of public policy. If you want sound public policy, you have to analyze the costs, benefits, alternatives, etc.

Also, even if you could travel back in time and make yourself global dictator and impose the regulation that you demand, it might not have solved the problem. MH370's communications appear to have been disabled for hours while the plane continued flying. If somebody did that deliberately, e.g. if they had accomplices in the ground crew to get into the E/E bay, then they could also disable your sacred satellite communications. If you want a clue how to prevent whatever happened to MH370 from happening again, you have to find out what happened to MH370.

Call it Crazy says

and after a year, not a single piece of debris has been found floating anywhere.... odd....

Odd, but nothing more than that.

Durable metal elements sunk. So what's left that tends to float? Foam, plastics, other materials chosen for for lightness not durability.

It's a forbidding and remote area. Let's say there's a Malaysia AIrlines coffee cup. If you didn't find that almost immediately, it's gone. Styrofoam breaks apart fast.

Now Imagine something more durable say a seat cushion helpfully stamped Malaysia Airlines floating on the surface. I believe they are blue in color, not helpfully bright orange. Let's say that miraculously it DOESN'T become waterlogged, then get pushed deep enough underwater by roaring waves to where the remaining air bubbles are compressed out and it sinks. Let's just say that. After a year or so in the salt water, bad weather & waves degrade the materials and it falls apart. Fabric unravels, foam gets out and breaks into tiny pieces. What was once a useful piece of evidence, just becomes more tiny bits of flotsam in the ocean. According to studies, plastic-based items break down pretty thoroughly after about a year in the elements.

Some helpful piece of luggage could wash up on a beach in Indonesia next year. But I wouldn't count on it.

Now this...

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia – The first comprehensive report into the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 revealed Sunday that the battery of the locator beacon for the plane's data recorder had expired more than a year before the jet vanished on March 8, 2014.

The report came as Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott said the hunt for the plane would not end even if the scouring of the current search area off Australia's west coast comes up empty.

Apart from the anomaly of the expired battery, the detailed report devoted pages after pages describing the complete normality of the flight, which disappeared while heading from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing, setting off aviation's biggest mystery.

So no wonder Malysia was so quick to follow all of those internet leads, it was all they had. But they could have came clean after the thrid time they sent search equiptment to look for beeps if they knew the batteries were already dead.

Call it Crazy says

and after a year, not a single piece of debris has been found floating anywhere.... odd....

Hundreds of ships have disappeared over the years without a single piece of debris found anywhere.................... odd....................... They didn't even hit the water at high speed breaking everything into little bits............................ odd...............................

bob2356 says

Hundreds of ships have disappeared over the years without a single piece of debris found anywhere.................... odd....................... They didn't even hit the water at high speed breaking everything into little bits............................ odd...............................

Keep.............................. in mind..............................................................

That was........ back in the day........................... when the Czar...................................... and then................................... Stalin................ were burying ships.................. at Baikonur................................................ odd..........................................

curious2 says

Having financed his own research while reading a wide range of ideas, Wise concluded that the plane flew north and landed at an air base leased by Russia in Kazakhstan:

Some thoughts:
1. Terrorists need to brag, or why bother? The purpose is to create terror. You don't take credit, it's considered an accident, so it was pointless. And why a Malaysian, Muslim Flight?
2. The picture of that "mysterious orb washed up on a beach" at the link looks like a WW2 mine, of which countless tens or hundreds of thousands were laid by the Japanese and ANZAC over a 4 year period.
3. The following borders theory is absurd and the opposite of reality: Military Radars are concentrated on the borders, duh. What is the point of having a radar in the middle of England, say Leicester, but not "Chain Home" on the coasts (Dover, Pevensey, etc.) to detect inbound bombers? Almost all major (1M+) cities have radars, civilian or military.
4. You don't need to hijack a plane to snatch and grab a person of interest. If the plane's destination is Beijing, China is Russia-friendly. And much easier to kidnap and send somebody over the border into Siberia by a huge largely unguarded border along the Amur River.

Kashmir Theory: No way a missing civilian airliner is flying over Jammu-Kashmir which is not only the site of several Indo-Pak wars but also a Sino-Indian land dispute, heavily scanned by Pakis and Indians in particular. Much less flying over Kashmir means flying over densely populated and EM dense Northern India. His other route has the plane flying over the multimillion city of Dacca in Bangladesh, chock full of military and civilian radar - not to mention off Rangoon, ditto, as well as other Sino-Indian disputed areas, Sikkim and Arunschal Pradesh, where there are certainly radars on both sides looking over each other's borders.

4b. It's also difficult to believe neither India nor China has powerful radars on their northern borders or in Xinkiang Province, respectively.

4c. The plane was full of Chinese. Russians killing a plane largely consisting of their ally's nationals is pretty stupid. Russians are accused of much, but not stupidity or recklessness.

5. Assumes that "Super Duper Spies" can pull these things off with near 100% Certainty and not get caught. That's TV Show rubbish.

I call Wise's Khazakstan Theory Crank.

thunderlips11 says

Russians are accused of much, but not stupidity or recklessness.

5. Assumes that "Super Duper Spies" can pull these things off with near 100% Certainty and not get caught.

Thanks - I think those were the strongest points in response to Wise's theory. If Putin wanted to hijack a 777, he would probably not choose one that might risk his relationship with China.

OTOH, there's this: "PBS Frontline: Putin's Way"

thunderlips11 says

Terrorists need to brag, or why bother?

Terrorists need a number of things, including money; a $100 million plane could be stripped for parts the way ISIL strips museums, selling the portable stuff and destroying whatever they can't sell. Anyway, it doesn't relate to Wise's theory, because he doesn't allege terrorists hijacked the plane.

Among experts who talk to commercial media, the most popular opinion seems to be suicide by pilot or first officer. I suspected that a year ago, and I do still, but I wanted in this thread to give fair hearing to other theories, including Wise's. The main advantage of Wise's theory is that it would explain how an entire airliner the size of a 777, full of passengers and luggage, disappeared without trace, which has never happened before.

As for the sarcastic bickering without any informative content or links, I haven't decided whether to delete those comments. [Update: I decided to delete some from an obvious troll who never contributes anything. He used to have Premium membership, so he could spray PatNet with "protected" diarrhea of the keyboard. If my deleting his comments causes him to pay for Premium again, then at least Patrick gets a bit of compensation for the chronic soiling of his website.]

Call it Crazy says

bob2356 says

They didn't even hit the water at high speed breaking everything into little bits

Seat cushions, foam insulation, baggage, bodies and flotation vests break into little bits..... Sure, if you say so....

At a cruising speed or out of control diving crash................................ Yep, most would be shredded....................................... wouldn't take all that long for all the rest to get waterlogged and sink............................................. Especially if the crash were where they were searching 1600 miles southwest of perth...................................... That's in the roaring 40's with 100+ knot winds and 60+ ft seas being very common.................................................................

curious2 says

Among experts who talk to commercial media, the most popular opinion seems to be suicide by pilot or first officer. I suspected that a year ago, and I do still, but I wanted in this thread to give fair hearing to other theories, including Wise's. The main advantage of Wise's theory is that it would explain how an entire airliner the size of a 777, full of passengers and luggage, disappeared without trace, which has never happened before.

Here you're on to something. I think this is also the case with the KAL disaster in the 80s. Pilot got dumped/was depressed, decided to suicide by flying into defended airspace.

Suicide is far more acceptable in Asian countries anyway, where "Face" is everything.

sbh says

Get back to me when you understand what happens when an object moving 500 mph hits something as soft as water............

I understand what happens when a 220lb object fucks up while running a slalom course at 35mph. Remind my torn ligament how soft water is. Is it a lot softer at 500 mph because at 35mph it's like hitting concrete?

bob2356 says

I understand what happens when a 220lb object fucks up while running a slalom course at 35mph. Remind my torn ligament how soft water is. Is it a lot softer at 500 mph because at 35mph it's like hitting concrete?

sbh was.................................................................... being sarcastic???????!?!?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!?????????????!?!?!?!?!?.......................................speaking in..............................................................................................................................an assumed voice.........................................................,,,,.................,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.

I think Putin had Nemtsov whacked because Nemtsov means "german" in russian and it's soon going to be 70 years since russia beat the nazis in world war 2.

https://www.yahoo.com/travel/mathematician-may-have-just-solved-the-mystery-of-121124580772.html

Mathematician May Have Just Solved The Mystery Of Missing Flight MH370

A mathematics professor may have solved the mystery of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370, which disappeared without trace last year with 239 people on board.

Conspiracy theorists have suggested various outlandish theories including the idea that the flight was abducted by aliens.
But the reality may be a little more prosaic, according to applied mathematician Dr. Goong Chen of Texas A&M University.

His computer models suggest that the flight entered a vertical dive over the Indian Ocean, entering the water cleanly and without breaking up.

The simulated crash solves some of the mysteries surrounding MH370 — such as the lack of debris and spilled oil on the surface.

Dr. Chen suggests that the plane’s body and wings sank rapidly — explaining the lack of an oil slick on the surface.

Dr. Chen says, “The true final moments of MH370 are likely to remain a mystery until someday when its black box is finally recovered and decoded.
“But forensics strongly supports that MH370 plunged into the ocean in a nosedive.”

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/french-aviation-expert-plane-wreckage-170030671.html

Plane wreckage found in Indian Ocean, 'there is a chance' it's from missing flight MH370

Aviation experts are speculating that wreckage found washed up on a French island in the Indian Ocean could be from missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370, which disappeared more than a year ago.

The French air force has confirmed that some debris has been found on Reunion Island, but officials told CNN that it's too soon to tell if it's from MH370.

Xavier Tytelman, a former French military pilot who now specializes in aviation security, told The Telegraph that he thinks the wreckage could possibly be from the plane that went missing while flying from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing in March 2014.

"I've been studying hundreds of photos and speaking to colleagues," Tytelman told The Telegraph. "And we all think it is likely that the wing is that of a Boeing 777 — the same plane as MH370.

"Police in Reunion examining the wreckage say that it looks like it's been in the water for around a year, which again would fit with MH370. We can't say for certainty, but we do think there is a chance that this is it."

Experts and journalists, including The Wall Street Journal's aerospace and Boeing beat reporter, are circulating photos on social media and discussing possibilities:

Until more evidence is discovered, investigators will just have to wing it.

zzyzzx says

Until more evidence is discovered....

I keep suspecting maybe a stowaway in the E/E bay. The published reports that mention the E/E bay seem to assume a terrorist hijacker got in there during the flight. I don't assume that. Rather, I suspect a stowaway might have got into the E/E bay prior to the flight, then cut off the cockpit communications and air supply, then climbed to peak altitude killing everyone without a personal air supply. The stowaway would have one, and maybe an accomplice in the cabin might have one. Either the stowaway or the accomplice then opens the door between the E/E bay and the cabin. At that point, the stowaway has the run of the plane, and can cause it to fly to a remote area of the Indian ocean, and set it down there. If a stowaway brought parachutes, then the stowaway and accomplice might even parachute out at low altitude into the warm ocean and await a rendezvous. The motives could include distracting investigators and controlling the media narrative, assassinating one or more people on the plane, robbery/piracy, and stripping whatever valuable parts might be salvaged from the plane before it sinks.

I've got a feeling that's it's no longer in the air.

https://gma.yahoo.com/mh370-part-found-reunion-island-missing-plane-175854267--abc-news-topstories.html

MH370: Part Found On Reunion Island Is From Missing Plane

The plane part that was found on a beach in the Indian Ocean was determined to be part of MH370, the Malaysia Airlines flight that vanished more than a year ago, Malaysia's prime minister said.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/report-mh370-wreckage-may-found-214229696.html

Report: MH370 wreckage may have been found in the Philippines

Malaysia authorities have received reports that airplane wreckage bearing the nation's flag, along with human remains, has been discovered on Sugbay Island in the Philippines.

The presence of the Malaysian flag has prompted speculation that the wreckage may be that of Malaysia Airlines' missing Flight MH370.

Locals on the island claim to have discovered a wrecked airplane fuselage along with the skeletal remains of the passengers and crew, the Daily Mail reported.

According to reports, a teenager stumbled upon the wreckage while hunting for birds in the jungle. Her uncle, an audio-visual technician, contacted authorities to report the finding.

But the likelihood that MH370 has been found in a Filipino jungle is low.

This latest discovery doesn't fit the flight's projected flight path. Evidence shows that MH370 took off from Kuala Lumpur and flew northeast toward China before turning west over the Malay Peninsula. Investigators believe the aircraft then turned south, flying over the southern Indian Ocean before crashing after running out of fuel.

The search for the Malaysian jet had been focused on a 7.3-million-square-mile area in the southern Indian Ocean off the western coast of Australia.

HA HA! Those internet know it alls with their Global Warming computers and Satelites don't know squat!

Ironman says

Tenpoundbass says

HA HA! Those internet know it alls with their Global Warming computers and Satelites don't know squat!

Go figure... The alarmist claim the satellites can measure tenths of a degree change in warming of the ocean over 100 years but these same high tech satellites can't find a 200 foot long aircraft that went missing???

LOL. It just does not make sense. I smell something fishy with this Flight 370.
Maybe Gary will be right one of these days.

Ironman says

Strategist says

LOL. It just does not make sense. I smell something fishy with this Flight 370.

Maybe you can't find something that never crashed...

Yup.
They did find water in Mars. Maybe they should look there.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/01/07/mh370-found-searchers-race-to-new-site.html
MH370 Found? Searchers Race to New Site