patrick.net

http://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc131230.htm

My guess is that the present speculative advance may have a few percent to run – I’ll be particularly concerned if the market does so in a rapid, uncorrected manner in the next couple of weeks, which could suggest crash probabilities approaching 100% based on the sort of analysis above. Again, this analysis does not drive our investment stance, which is already defensive based on a broad range of observable and historically-testable evidence. The log-periodic pattern of the S&P 500 since 2010 is more of an experimental curiosity, but it’s certainly an interesting real-time example of bubble dynamics. It will be fascinating to see how this plays out.