patrick.net

next time follow more than 1 blog...and don't let the posters decide for you.

skyrocket up, skyrocket down.. volatility. SFBA isnt done correcting.. other places have.

What ever home you want to buy, where ever city you might be in... take 1996 prices and adjust for inflation. say additional 40%. Thats the price you should offer.

thomaswong.1986 says

What ever home you want to buy, where ever city you might be in... take 1996 prices and adjust for inflation. say additional 40%. Thats the price you should offer.

Why 1996? What's magic about that year?

What's your problem? You did not buy exactly when the market bottomed? Who cares! The best time to buy is when the market appreciates, which is RIGHT NOW! Buy now! Just make sure you take a FHA loan with 3.5% down to cover your ass if things go bad. Let Obama take all the risk. You can only win. In worst case you stay for free for a year or so to recover your 3.5% downpayment. Right now most markets see around 10% appreciation. On a $500k house that's $50k/year. Nice! All you need is like $20k down, that's already recovered after just 6 month. Later take out a HELOC, or refinance, or sell to secure your gain in case another bubble pops. Every person is this country knows that real estate is a risk free investment, the banks and government (taxpayer) take all the losses, if any. The only part you risk is your down payment. It's a no-brainer!

If you're experiencing a repeat cycle where you live, then just wait for the rinse cycle again.

Real Estate wont be normal again until interest rates goes higher. Then the speculators will abandon the market, as competing buyers anyway.

Normal in my opinion would be, the median home price of 96K-175K depending on your market, and an interest rate of 7% to 8%.

I'm not sure what or how that would translate to markets where 1200 sq ft 60 year old or more, homes are currently going for a million or more.
My guess is, those markets will never be normal again. They damn sure weren't worth a million when they were built, nor were they meant to be. So there's nothing normal about it.

Don't blame PatNet. Plenty of people here were saying it was a buying opportunity. Even Patrick wrote that he thought certain markets had bottomed. I have followed this site since at least 2007, and I finally bought a house in early 2012. Best thing I ever did. I'm glad I waited. Prices have been climbing for a year and a half now; I'm not sure how you missed that.

Now what? Buy a house. You missed the exact bottom, but I bet we're not at the top yet.

Wait 4 - 6 months.

I suggest that you become bitter and let the hate fester inside you.

thomaswong.1986 says

skyrocket up, skyrocket down.. volatility. SFBA isnt done correcting.. other places have.

What ever home you want to buy, where ever city you might be in... take 1996 prices and adjust for inflation. say additional 40%. Thats the price you should offer.

Your chart is more than 2 years out of date. WTF?

Up to date chart of real home prices:

I don't think you should only look at national data, but to say it's "useless" is a huge exaggeration, IMO. If you look at the 20-in-1 or 10-in-1 charts, all the areas move in the same general direction, with slight variations within each local market. They are not completely unrelated.

robertoaribas says

and another nitwit chimes in...

You know what they say about Realtors and Dogs?
...every speculator has his day, and the bit dog howls the loudest.

Homeboy says

Up to date chart of real home prices

in terms of the best deals to be had, the bottom was in 09.

Mark D says

in terms of the best deals to be had, the bottom was in 09.

Nope.

meetyaks says

I would have seriously bought something had I not followed this blog. Now prices are sky rocketed and dont know what do...

Hang in there. Unless you'd found an REO or a fixer, you'd mostly be competing with speculators anyway.

No one should make a major financial, life changing decision based upon the sole information presented in an anonymous blog. Hopefully you are not following biblically other anonymous blogs on different topics such as marriage, partnership, and financials.

Hey, I'll say it again, I didn't see this uptick coming either.

I also would like to say I redact nothing. Even one year of Real Estate experience and the laws of physics will imply there will not be a slow, steady, drip of 2/1 properties in need of repair going on for 4 years now. It is normal to think I may be in denial, after all, this an anonymous blog, but I can't seriously thing of property where it 'Awee, I should have bought that one'
Unless, of course, I was thinking like a flipper, which I was not, and if was and saw the uptick coming, sure, I would have been more lenient in my viewpoints.

I feel the need to point out that I have seen the following advice posted many times by several members of this site:
"If you like the property after doing your research, are planning to live there for a while and the price is right for your situation then go for it.". I am simplifying and paraphrasing the posts of course.

There are many smart posts and threads here, but I found this simple advice to be among the most useful.

i'm with david, they've worked hard to reflate a bubble.

give it some time, or buy a place in fresno, it's cheap there.

Klondike says

"If you like the property after doing your research, are planning to live there for a while and the price is right for your situation then go for it.". I am simplifying and paraphrasing the posts of course.

I've said that all along and I meant it when I said it, and I meant it in practice.

I bought at the end of 2010 for 160K, 4.50% interest and a dirt cheap flat MIP of $69. Prices did go down, had I waited until the end of last year, I could have saved 20 to 40K on the house I bought. But I refuse to worry about it for several reasons.
Firstly, would this same house been available in 2012 for 40K less than I paid for it? What if it didn't sell in 2010, perhaps the previous owner would have just pulled it off the market and rented it out, while he retired to Ecuador. Would I have found a house for a lower price that I like as much as this one? Or would have convinced my self to buy up for 20, 30 50K more?

It sure it a lot of "what ifs" to worry about. Besides, I would have gladly paid someone 30K to 40K in 2010 to find me a house for $130K. I was willing to pay what did, when I did.

David9 says

No one should make a major financial, life changing decision based upon the sole information presented in an anonymous blog.

especially patrick. he has an extreme view of things instead of a more rational approach.

Hmm, wish Patrick would approve my linked in request, hint, hint. I have always been very honest and up front he might be a good resource for job leads some day.

Well, what I have learned from this 'uptick' is that some people saw from the start when the 'uplifting' policies and $money$ was thrown at the housing market and made an individual choice to invest and it worked out for them, good for them.

Another learning point for me was that it was my values and viewpoints (notice my icon) about fundamentals, ethics, and that eventually these forces will win out that clouded my seeing the whole picture.

So, in summary, as a recent acticle posted on here stated, there really is some 'magical force' that can 'levitate' these markets completely free of fundamentals.

Yea, but to be fair, you have to factor in interest rate changes over the time period,,,,,oops!