patrick.net

robertoaribas says

David Losh says

You have been provided tons of data, by myself, and a lot of people who post here

total lie...You seem to have two modes: lying, or being stupid.

Like I said you ignore data. Just because some one pays more is like some one who sells a rusty nail. People may pay $450K for a rusty nail, but it doesn't give it value.

I was smart enough not to buy into a highly manipulated Real Estate market place.

You seem so bitter. You're continually angry at anyone who sees your scheme, and calls you on it.

I'm really happy with my choices. I have much more income potential at a time you seem done.

So, I have a lot more questions for you, like why any one would gift you these extremely high rents. How do you see the future of your "investments" coming in at more money for you?

You don't get it, you paid full retail for your properties, are gouging rents, and calling yourself smart.

You just seem insecure.

FunTime says

I, for one, am celebrating your forward thinking here. Apparently others here are much more traditional/conservative.

Roberto is giving you the old timey conservative advice about how Real Estate only goes up.

We all know that isn't true, don't we?

robertoaribas says

David Losh's wife cleaning someone's house... Here is how the bigmouth makes his living: sending his wife and her kids out to clean, ($80 for a 3 person crew for an hour) while he blogs all day like a bigshot. picture downloaded from his blog.

Does that make you feel more of a man Roberto ? You feeling like a King yet ?

I flipped burgers scrubbed my share of toilets and still do ...

a long way to the top.. but even I got to be a success in SV tech industry.

robertoaribas says

I spent 15 years studying the Phoenix market, and market bubbles and crashes. If you are reading this, do you know about the south sea trading bubble? the nifty fifty bubble?, the arabian horse bubble? the florida real estate bubble in the 1920s? the japanese bubbles both stock and housing? the dutch housing bubble, which in money terms dwarfed the famous tulip bubble? I have studied each and every one of them in detail, as well as currency collapses around the world.

So, yes, I think I have a story to tell.

Then you should know that never been serial bubbles. They tend to skip a generation and for good reason. And if you really studied then you will also know that some (not all) had a mini echo bubble a few years after their crash just to resume their trip downward. The reason I think this is a fake housing recovery is that there is no wages growth to keep up with any appreciation. All the inventory is being taken up by investors to rent (like you?). Eventually (and this is already starting to happen) rents will soften (to many like you?) and there will be pressure to sell those investments (like music chairs?). Just saying

skeptic says

Then you should know that never been serial bubbles. They tend to skip a generation and for good reason. And if you really studied then you will also know that some (not all) had a mini echo bubble a few years after their crash just to resume their trip downward. The reason I think this is a fake housing recovery is that there is no wages growth to keep up with any appreciation. All the inventory is being taken up by investors to rent (like you?). Eventually (and this is already starting to happen) rents will soften (to many like you?) and there will be pressure to sell those investments (like music chairs?). Just saying

You are talking like Phoenix is the BA. He bought his properties for peanuts compared to the prices most posters on here face. Some of his houses were bought for prices that would be easily manageable for people with low incomes let alone those with median household incomes. Even after the recent run up, many of the prices he is quoting are perfectly manageable for anyone with an income around 30k. That is a lot of people. At some point, the run up will cease in Phoenix, but why would that bother him?

robertoaribas says

If prices doubled again in Phoenix, we'd be in a bubble... 170K median price for a single family home is hardly a bubble... Oh, and by the way, rents went up 1.3% city wide last year... hardly seems like rental declines to me..

"The median purchase price for a single-family home in Phoenix jumped 35 percent to $163,000 in January from a year earlier, according to a March 8 report by Center for Real Estate Theory at Arizona State University’s W.P. Carey School of Business. Median rents on a per-square-foot basis, meanwhile, dropped 3 percent in February from a year earlier after climbing 1.5 percent in the 12 months through February 2012 and 3 percent a year earlier, according to Fletcher Wilcox, a real estate analyst at Grand Canyon Title Agency in Phoenix. "

"Monthly leases in Phoenix’s west side, where investors bought the most rentals, fell by about $100 a month, or 10 percent, in 2012, said James Breitenstein, CEO of Landsmith, a San Francisco-based single-family rental firm that sold most of its 250 Phoenix rental houses last year. Rents also softened in Las Vegas and in Atlanta, where Landsmith acquired about 300 homes in the past six months, he said. "

Like I said the buy-to-rent is softening and "investors" will start to offload their inventory into the market. Moreover, for a buy-to-rent investor like Blackstone the "buy-to-rent" business model goes way

BTW I define a bubble in RE as any pricing that deviates from 3 to 4x yearly wages. So even at this levels housing is overprice to most people that are not cash investors.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-18/rent-gains-trail-as-blackstone-crowds-u-s-with-homes.html

robertoaribas says

on your own blog, you told about your Atlanta purchase for $90K that you sold for $30K... Yeah, you were smart all right. it shows!

That's not on my blog it was in a comment here to show that not all market places were doing gang busters.

You really can't keep anything straight.

I realize this is another one of your sales forums, it was my mistake to engage you, again.

David Losh says

People may pay $450K for a rusty nail, but it doesn't give it value.

OK, then. How do you "value" a house?

IMO, the "value" varies significantly from one person to another. A 4th BR may be useless to a childless family, but may be extrememly valuable to a family with 2 or 3 kids. So, I'm really curious how you can determine a value independent of what someone actually pays for it.

skeptic says

BTW I define a bubble in RE as any pricing that deviates from 3 to 4x yearly wages.

Well, this is like how people bitch and moan about how CPI is calculated. I mean, a TV in 1950 is not what a TV today is. Oil in the '90s had way different supply/demand dynamics than it does today. In the same way, trying to link a home purchase to wages is dubious because both home prices and wages have become unhinged from their past standards.

It may be that we are now working for slightly less, and simply paying a lot more of our income for housing than in the past. If it seems "un"fundamental, consider that the market is currently functioning with or without you liking that. Infact, we are for all intents and purposes reaching 2006 prices in most markets, so the last 12 years of runaway housing costs are so far actually sustained.

Do I want to buy a house in CA that is 5x my household income? No. And I won't. But plenty others are and they are making it work enough to support price increases.

tatupu70 says

OK, then. How do you "value" a house?

The value of the property is determined by your own financial plan.

You value the property by what it is worth to you, and your financial goals.

It is a financial decision that you can ignore in favor of a quality of life, like a neighborhood, or school.

It needs to fit what you can afford in the long term, and the equity you can build with it.

David Losh says

People may pay $450K for a rusty nail, but it doesn't give it value.

I'm going to be a billionaire by the end of the week!

David Losh says

The value of the property is determined by your own financial plan.

You value the property by what it is worth to you, and your financial goals.

It is a financial decision that you can ignore in favor of a quality of life, like a neighborhood, or school.

It needs to fit what you can afford in the long term, and the equity you can build with it.

I think the key point you're missing is that when your "value" is less than the market value, the market value wins. Your value is pretty much irrelevent.

Would be nice if the jealous haters would only look at the price paid 1 year ago and the price sold for or being listed for this year. Then use a calculator to add the numbers and make your conclusion. Is that person a fool for making a nice chunk on his investment or did he make a wise decision? Delusional psychopaths and jealous people will say he's a fool while normal people will admit he made a killing. The numbers speak for themselves.

postbubblesucess says

Delusional psychopaths and jealous people will say he's a fool while normal people will admit he made a killing. The numbers speak for themselves.

ying and yang... while it may seem like a killing to you.. such inflation in prices 20-30% annually isnt a good thing for our local economy.

IDDQD says

Wow. How many toilets are under your management?

A lot.

tatupu70 says

I think the key point you're missing is that when your "value" is less than the market value, the market value wins.

If you are the buyer you determine the value because, as we are seeing today, you can wait for market volitility to change in your favor.

A buyer doesn't have to buy, or they can have an alternative choice.

Most buyers don't want to play the game of trading up, or think it's a trick, but plenty of investors see the market place differently.

Real Estate is a transcation betwen two people. The market place can do whatever it wants, but I know that even in the hottest markets there are good deals.

robertoaribas says

more moronic nonsense from the usual source...

You are so stupid it amazes me.

I didn't realize this was your thread when I commented, but now that I'm here, why not continue to educate you in business.

That investment property you keep talking about was a apart of a trust. You do know waht a trust is, right?

In that trust the stocks went up, continue to go up, and the condo lost value. Even though the condo paid a return, and all of the money was made, and out of it, the sales price was declining so, why were we holding onto it?

Why would any one hold onto Real Estate today, especially stuff they bought recently?

and had you done some research while you were cyberstalking me, you creep, you would know even though we pulled $270K out of my home that we had owned for less than four years we still owe less that $170 a sq. ft in a market place that gets closer to $200 per sq ft.

Now professor before you have another bottle of wine, get on your bike, and ride off with your dog, you should know that I am a brutal business man.

I get sued, people don't like me, I threaten law suits, but really going to court with me is a bad idea, because I'm very comfortable in court.

I make money professor, Welcome to Real Estate

robertoaribas says

so, why are you underwater on your home then? why did you lose money on your investment, if you know about how to get these good deals in any markett?

did you get this straight this time?

postbubblesucess says

price paid 1 year ago and the price sold for or being listed for this year. Then
use a calculator to add the numbers and make your conclusion. Is that person a
fool for making a nice chunk on his investment

Buying to only hold for one year and then sell is called speculation, not investment.

robertoaribas says

You are the one who said you would sell if you weren't underwater

Show me the quote. I said I will sell if I could, but I can't because my kids have two more years in that school. We bought to be walking distance to that scholl professor, becaue we can do that.

I think we should move to Miami, how about you?

robertoaribas says

Do they love you before, or after they sue you?

If you did research rather than cyber stalking, you would see those lawsuits are from banks.

robertoaribas says

yeah, that would explain the lawsuits and the IRS liens, and having to spend all of your home equity... and being underwater...

So, because your brain is so adled with alcohol you want to believe I spent the money rather than invest it.

Let me make my point more vividly out of your distorted rantings.

robertoaribas says

sure thing... I want to know about business from the guy that pimps out his wife and her kids cleaning toilets and floors for $25 an hour... yep that's what I want to learn!

We charge a base rate of $30 per hour, we bill a little higher rate for one time cleanings, and have six employees. My brother, and sister in law have a similar business, and they have six employees. Our labor cost is at 43%, including taxes, and vehicle allowance.

But wait there is more to this point.

robertoaribas says

on your own blog, you told about your Atlanta purchase for $90K that you sold for $30K... Yeah, you were smart all right. it shows!

Did you Google what a trust is professor? Let me help you again: http://legal-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/trust

In this trust was the condo in Atlanta, and a stock portfolio. Are you able to follow this so far? The stock portfolio began at about $200K at the time the condo was bought.

The stock portfolio is now worth over a million, while that pathetic condo purchase lost money. Should we hold onto it as a great investment?

The stock recovered readily from the economic crash, but the condo, the Real Estate, continued to struggle to hold at the value it lost.

Let me think, keep condo, losing money, or sell, and invest the money in performing stock portfolio?? Hmmmmm, this is tough.

I'll make a seperate comment about you personally.

robertoaribas says

Now get lost, you are a loser with the intelligence of house plant.

You brought up my cleaning business the way you always do, and my point is that even if Case Schiller is up 8% it doesn't change the fact, that you can't dispute, a condo in Atlanta Georgia lost value, a lot of value.

Case Schiller numbers are by broad metropolitan areas, but doesn't represent the Real Estate market place.

You're the one who wanted to attack, you just don't have the stones to follow through.

Does everybody fold under these roberto rantings?

David Losh says

Does everybody fold under these roberto rantings?

No. He's a complete douche. He's even rated the worst real estate agent (http://bit.ly/11T8KJD). He calls people "stupid" when they disagree with him or prove him wrong. He thinks he's a genius because he teaches basic algebra to high school dropouts, yet he's the one that thinks Arizona is the place to live.

He claims he bought 1405 E Atlanta Drive Phoenix, AZ 85040 for $46K but there's no record of that in its price history (http://bit.ly/17GOc9L). Because he bought it for $121,900 and then was foreclosed on.

Mobi says

Any plan to invest in Vegas? Any trick to do well as an absent landlord?

Make sure you allow the manufacture and distribution of Meth from the rental..........

CameronCrazy says

He claims he bought 1405 E Atlanta Drive Phoenix, AZ 85040 for $46K but there's no record of that in its price history (http://bit.ly/17GOc9L). Because he bought it for $121,900 and then was foreclosed on.

You're still peddling that line I see.

David Losh says

Just because some one pays more is like some one who sells a rusty nail. People may pay $450K for a rusty nail, but it doesn't give it value.

Wrong. If somebody was to pay you $450k for a rusty nail then that nail is worth $450k - period!

SubOink says

a rusty nail then that nail is worth $450k - period!

That contradicts market condition arguments. What is that supply, and demand aspect of that singular transaction?

You are proving several of my points, but hey, thanks, but no thanks.

David Losh says

SubOink says

a rusty nail then that nail is worth $450k - period!

That contradicts market condition arguments. What is that supply, and demand aspect of that singular transaction?

You are proving several of my points, but hey, thanks, but no thanks.

One single transaction may make me a lucky winner but what if I sell nail after nail for $450k?
After all - not only one house is being sold - which is what the analogy was aimed at, correct?

SubOink says

One single transaction

Real Estate is a transaction between two individuals, some may over pay, other may under pay. The seller can sell, if they don't have a mortgage for wahtever price they choose. I, as a cash buyer can pay as much, or as little as I choose.

Market conditions may have an influence, but they don't make the transaction.

David Losh says

Real Estate is a transaction between two individuals, some may over pay, other may under pay. The seller can sell, if they don't have a mortgage for wahtever price they choose. I, as a cash buyer can pay as much, or as little as I choose.

Market conditions may have an influence, but they don't make the transaction.

I don't know what your point is.

Mine was - If I keep selling rusty nails for $450k so they are worth 450k. Unlike you said.

SubOink says

Wrong. If somebody was to pay you $450k for a rusty nail then that nail is worth $450k - period!

You don't really believe that. The transaction you describe would be more of an (extreme) outlier; not evidence of the real underlying value of the rusty nail.

SubOink says

If I keep selling

Actually, if you were somehow able to KEEP selling rusty nails for half a million dollars, this discussion would shift from one of supply and demand to one of widespread aberrant behavior, and questions as to the pH of your local water supply!

David Losh says

Real Estate is a transaction between two individuals, some may over pay, other may under pay. The seller can sell, if they don't have a mortgage for wahtever price they choose. I, as a cash buyer can pay as much, or as little as I choose.

Market conditions may have an influence, but they don't make the transaction.

That's fair when describing buyers and sellers not compelled to buy/sell. The thing is, there are plenty of transactions where the buyer or seller is compelled in some sense. Bankruptcy, divorce, relocation, new house purchase, job loss, etc. Of course it's usually not black and white, but I suspect quite often a seller is financially able to hold a house but sells it for convenience, financial planning, opportunity cost or whatever reasons. In that case they are going to (most likely) sell it at the market price, even if it's below (or above) what they think it's worth. Similarly there are buyers who could opt to rent in their new city for a year (a great idea) but due to internal or external pressures are going to buy a house in the short term. It doesn't really matter if they think the market is overpriced if they have already mentally committed to buying a house...they are going to, most likely, have to pay market price, not what they think something is worth. Happens every day. Similarly they aren't going to pay more for a house than what the market dictates just because it's worth more.

How else do you assign a value to the house? You can start with the equivalent rent, and take into account maintenance, insurance, taxes, tax deduction, uncertainty, fixed costs vs variable rent, appreciation / depreciation, etc...but that involves a lot of assumptions. Then you have to attach some value to the "I own it and can paint it whatever color I want" train of thought (even if you think it's pure idiocy to place any value on that, others do)...If people value something, they are going to pay more for it, that's the way the world works. What is a Prada handbag worth? The raw materials + labor + fair markup? The functional utility of the handbag? What someone is willing to pay for it?

Sure, things can get out of whack when people believe prices only go up, buy over their head because the bank lets them, starts buying second and third houses speculatively...but you have to at least give a nod to the idea that if multiple someones are willing to pay $X for a house, that $X has some relation to the value of the house. Not necessarily intrinsic value, not necessarily the "right" value, but I don't see how you can ignore it.

The thing is, Americans on the whole make enough money to meet their basic needs and have excess to spend. Since they aren't going to save or invest, it's going to go somewhere...given the nature of housing (fixed location, scarcity, status), it seems reasonable that the excess $ is going to go, at least in part, to housing prices.

So, how do you assign value to a house?

JodyChunder says

You don't really believe that. The transaction you describe would be more of an (extreme) outlier; not evidence of the real underlying value of the rusty nail.

Millions of people are buying bottled water for $3.50 a bottle....

At this point - you got bottled water - its worth $3.50 a bottle whether its really worth it or not. That's what you can get for it in the free market - that's what its worth.
Who gives a $hit about REAL underlying value?? Is a hamburger at McDonalds worth $1.50?? Is a Big Mac Meal worth $6.99.- ??

robertoaribas says

"the real estate market never changes"

That is correct professor.

SubOink says

Millions of people are buying bottled water for $3.50 a bottle

Millions more, probably billions more, drink water from a recycled bottle for far less.

swebb says

So, how do you assign value to a house?

The buyer, and seller assign the value to the house.

I look at a house, kick the tires, figure out what it will cost to repair, my level of desire, and make an offer.

The seller decides what they want to get out of the house.

We may both look at market conditions from different perspectives. Roberto see an escalating market, I see one that may well crash. I thought we might have a soft landing, but each day we get worse economic news.

The buyer, and seller can tell each other the opinions they have, and either come to a meeting of the minds, or walk away.

The value of the property is what the negotiated price, terms, and conditions end up being for each individual.

The jist of this give & go is based on a fictional situation amplified to magnify the relationship of money versus value.

The local water supply pH would not come into question if one were therefore to add to the fray another fictional factoid such as "rusty nails are the only physical object proven to aid in orgasmic ........".......oh, my coffee's ready. gotta go..

JodyChunder says

SubOink says

Wrong. If somebody was to pay you $450k for a rusty nail then that nail is worth $450k - period!

You don't really believe that. The transaction you describe would be more of an (extreme) outlier; not evidence of the real underlying value of the rusty nail.

SubOink says

If I keep selling

Actually, if you were somehow able to KEEP selling rusty nails for half a million dollars, this discussion would shift from one of supply and demand to one of widespread aberrant behavior, and questions as to the pH of your local water supply!

that $ 3.50 depends on the size of the bottle, and where it's being delivered. ie marriot sheraton hotel.....
If one were to get up off their ass and go to the local 7/11 they could get bottled water for less than a dollar.
It's not about the water, but like real estate, location location location.

SubOink says

JodyChunder says

You don't really believe that. The transaction you describe would be more of an (extreme) outlier; not evidence of the real underlying value of the rusty nail.

Millions of people are buying bottled water for $3.50 a bottle....

At this point - you got bottled water - its worth $3.50 a bottle whether its really worth it or not. That's what you can get for it in the free market - that's what its worth.

Who gives a $hit about REAL underlying value?? Is a hamburger at McDonalds worth $1.50?? Is a Big Mac Meal worth $6.99.- ??

Bigsby says

You're still peddling that line I see.

You're still enjoying the taste of robertoaribas' cock I see.

CameronCrazy says

Bigsby says

You're still peddling that line I see.

You're still enjoying the taste of robertoaribas' cock I see.

You seem to have a fascination with cock. I presume that is because you are such a massive dick.

And as you were wrong about Roberto's purchase, are you actually going to hold your hands up and admit your error, or are you just going to continue with your cyber stalking?

Bigsby says

You're still enjoying the taste of robertoaribas' cock I see.

Bigsby - blowing roberto since 2010!

yup1 says

Bigsby says

You're still enjoying the taste of robertoaribas' cock I see.

Bigsby - blowing roberto since 2010!

Ah yes, another Roberto stalker. You and the other dipshit seem to have a lot in common. You aren't the same person, are you? Discovered Hotspot Shield or some such, have you?

Oh, and I started posting on here in Nov 2011, so at least try and get the basics of your blowing insults right.

Bigsby says

Oh, and I started blowing roberto on here in Nov 2011

Yeah that pretty much says it all.

yup1 says

Bigsby says

Oh, and I started blowing roberto on here in Nov 2011

Yeah that pretty much says it all.

That's really impressive. You edited my post. How clever.