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gregpfielding
2012 Dec 18, 4:35am
Is this prediction for your area or the Bay Area?
Bay Area. Median or average. But each town and price tier could be different.
What price do you consider low-end?
Starter homes or condos in places like Concord, Livermore, or Antioch. What was $250,000 2 years ago is $350,000 right now.
What was $180,000 is now $250,000.
Sean thinks foreclosure inventory will get cut in 1/2 compared to 2012 while you see higher inventory in 2013.
Yep. There is a lag. By the end 2013 foreclosure activity could half again, but total REO for sale might only fall 25%. The declines will be steeper in 2014.
You know Bruce Norris called for a 20% median price increase in 2013, right?
Bruce Norris is selling something.
but 7%-10% price increase is not unreasonable given where we are with interest rate and inventory.
It's certainly possible. We're on that pace now or even faster in a lot of areas. I'm not quite as bullish overall.
2012 didn’t play out like I had expected. The inventory of homes for sale shrunk FAR more than I (or anyone else) expected. In 2012, we saw more Demand versus less Supply, and home price rose. I expect slightly lower Demand and slightly more Supply in 2013.
On blend, I would expect home prices to be flat to up-slightly in 2013. This is in contrast to the 5-15% gains many Bay Area properties saw in 2012.
Read the rest if you are interested...
http://bayarearealestatetrends.com/2012/12/17/gregs-2013-bay-area-real-estate-forecast/
#housing