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Jack's Final Prediction For The 2012 Election


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2012 Oct 21, 12:27am   34,494 views  83 comments

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My dear friends Patrick.net is not a political forum. But this morning I am going to predict the outcome of the presidential election. This election has many aspects of my first presidential election in 1948. President Harry Truman ran against Thomas E. Dewey of New York. Harry pulled an incredible upset and beat Dewey even after a New York Times front page headline saying that Dewey had won. The first possible outcome is that Romney wins the popular vote and Obama wins the electoral vote.

My 'wild card" prediction is that the pollsters have not correctly identified and counted potential Hispanic voters who are going to turn out. If this is the case, Obama will win both the popular vote and electoral vote but certainly not like he did in 2008.

The Democrats will retain control of the US Senate. The Republicans will lose some seats in Congress but still retain control there.

Please do not get mad at me or think that I m crazy. I correctly predicted the Supreme Court vote on Obamacare, even down to Judge Roberts casting the decisive vote in favor.

#politics

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1   gbenson   2012 Oct 21, 2:50am  

He's the new oracle in the next Matrix movie.

If Romney wins the popular vote but loses the electoral college, Fox News will have a melt down. I might actually tune in to see that :)

2   Shaman   2012 Oct 21, 3:45am  

And suddenly the democratic platform on the electoral college will change from "an out-dated, antiquated method that is robbing people of their voice" to "a sturdy and time-tested part of our heritage that is worth keeping."

Watch!

3   Ceffer   2012 Oct 21, 3:59am  

I hear that Acorn is opening voting booths in Mexico City.

4   kentm   2012 Oct 21, 4:45am  

I hear that the romney's have purchased voting machines in swing states.

5   gbenson   2012 Oct 21, 7:24am  

Quigley says

And suddenly the democratic platform on the electoral college will change from "an out-dated, antiquated method that is robbing people of their voice" to "a sturdy and time-tested part of our heritage that is worth keeping."

Nope, still want it done away with, but only if we fix our broken voting system. We put men on the moon 40 years ago but still can't figure out how to vote without having to take time off work stand in long lines, and verify your vote was counted accurately.

6   Bap33   2012 Oct 21, 12:19pm  

Here in mexifornia, the same voting system that voted for Prop 187(but had a lib activist court block the peoples voice), voted against sodomite marriage(but sees a lib activist court sending the same rejected notion back into court at will), voted against death penalty(but everyone I know wants a death penalty, and a faster one), and voted against legal dope(and the liberal activist court refuses to turn loose), is never questioned when it votes for feinstein, boxer, moonbeam, or Lord Barry to win an election. Using the unelected court in place of votes is a stupid idea. The power is supposed to sit with "the people", not "the chosen". When the people vote, it should count.

Now, we need to make sure only legal citizens vote, and we need to make stupid people votes count for less than smart people votes. Votes should be weighted by intellect (IQ test and some basic American history, maybe a little economics) and by amount of taxes paid as a percentage of income. I suggest a voting license, gained by proof of legal status and testing. Nobody will not be allowed to vote, unless they do not pass the drug test taken when they enter the polls.

If we don't catch this monster now, we are all done. If those using obama phones, having 5 kids from 4 different breeding partners, doing drugs, and having never been productive in life -- have a vote that equals yours, then we are going to have a very big problem.

7   gbenson   2012 Oct 21, 2:52pm  

Call it Crazy says

Even one of your NBC guys thinks it's nuts:

Then he's just ignorant about the issue. You have machines built by companies who are heavily in bed with republicans who won't share their proprietary software with anyone, and in certain key counties (but not elsewhere) the exit polling numbers vs vote counts go totally off the rails with these machines, and there's no way to recount or verify the results. The few times they have opened their machines up to hackers, the hackers were able to manipulate results with relative ease, and you have election officials showing up after the fact with 'oops, here are a few more votes we forgot to add in."... Yeah, no reason at all to be concerned. (that last bit was sarcasm if you couldn't tell)

8   bob2356   2012 Oct 21, 11:20pm  

gbenson says

Quigley says

And suddenly the democratic platform on the electoral college will change from "an out-dated, antiquated method that is robbing people of their voice" to "a sturdy and time-tested part of our heritage that is worth keeping."

Nope, still want it done away with, but only if we fix our broken voting system. We put men on the moon 40 years ago but still can't figure out how to vote without having to take time off work stand in long lines, and verify your vote was counted accurately.

Move to Oregon. Voting is all by mail. Worked great when I lived there.

9   david1   2012 Oct 22, 4:50am  

Bap33 says

and we need to make stupid people votes count for less than smart people votes. Votes should be weighted by intellect (IQ test and some basic American history, maybe a little economics) and by amount of taxes paid as a percentage of income.

Ladies and gentlemen, the modern American conversative.

10   New Renter   2012 Oct 22, 4:52am  

Bap33 says

Here in mexifornia, the same voting system that voted for Prop 187(but had a lib activist court block the peoples voice), voted against sodomite marriage(but sees a lib activist court sending the same rejected notion back into court at will), voted against death penalty(but everyone I know wants a death penalty, and a faster one), and voted against legal dope(and the liberal activist court refuses to turn loose), is never questioned when it votes for feinstein, boxer, moonbeam, or Lord Barry to win an election. Using the unelected court in place of votes is a stupid idea. The power is supposed to sit with "the people", not "the chosen". When the people vote, it should count.

If you don't care for sodomites why do you have such a blatantly homoerotic avatar?

11   gbenson   2012 Oct 22, 4:58am  

New Renter says

you have such a blatantly homoerotic avatar?

Glad I wasn't the only one thinking that :)

12   New Renter   2012 Oct 22, 5:09am  

gbenson says

New Renter says

you have such a blatantly homoerotic avatar?

Glad I wasn't the only one thinking that :)

So Bap33, when's the coming out party? :P

13   Tenpoundbass   2012 Oct 22, 5:15am  

So Captain America is gay now is he?
He's just a comic book hero, I didn't know he was from Key West.

14   Philistine   2012 Oct 22, 6:01am  

gbenson says

'oops, here are a few more votes we forgot to add in."... Yeah, no reason at all to be concerned

Oddly, as simple as it would be to rig election machines, you will never get it seriously investigated because people love to crucify a Conspiracy Theorist more than their own ideology. Arthur Miller's 'The Crucible' is an invaluable comparison here.

But moreover than that, if you are questioning the legitimacy of the voting machines, this assumes you already have confidence in the very act of voting--which in itself is the biggest sham of them all.

15   curious2   2012 Oct 22, 6:01am  

CaptainShuddup says

So Captain America is gay now is he?
He's just a comic book hero, I didn't know he was from Key West.

Captain America is from NYC, which has 100x more gay people than Key West does. I don't know whether Captain America and Bucky Barnes are gay or not, but a growing number of comic book characters are coming out. I always thought Batman and Robin were gay, though the recent movies have gone in a different direction.

16   Tenpoundbass   2012 Oct 22, 6:14am  

Oye Vay!

17   New Renter   2012 Oct 22, 6:54am  

CaptainShuddup says

So Captain America is gay now is he?

He's just a comic book hero, I didn't know he was from Key West.

Captain America doesn't have to be gay, but someone who cuts out his picture and hangs it on his wall - you have to wonder.

18   rooemoore   2012 Oct 22, 7:09am  

Quigley says

And suddenly the democratic platform on the electoral college will change from "an out-dated, antiquated method that is robbing people of their voice" to "a sturdy and time-tested part of our heritage that is worth keeping."

Watch!

If Romney wins the popular vote but loses the election, the movement to ditch(or drastically reform) the electoral college will grow like wildfire.

19   Philistine   2012 Oct 22, 7:22am  

rooemoore says

If Romney wins the popular vote but loses the election, the movement to ditch(or drastically reform) the electoral college will grow like wildfire

Meh, not really. Gore won the popular vote in 2000, by 500,000 something votes IIRC, and the sheeple didn't burn down the barn then. We're all a bunch o' dumbocrats and re-pubic-hairs, totally incapable of a French Revolution--as delightful as that would be.

20   rooemoore   2012 Oct 22, 7:49am  

Philistine says

rooemoore says

If Romney wins the popular vote but loses the election, the movement to ditch(or drastically reform) the electoral college will grow like wildfire

Meh, not really. Gore won the popular vote in 2000, by 500,000 something votes IIRC, and the sheeple didn't burn down the barn then. We're all a bunch o' dumbocrats and re-pubic-hairs, totally incapable of a French Revolution--as delightful as that would be.

Reforming the electoral college is a far cry from something on the scale of a "revolution". Actually, it has already begun on the state level. Because of the Senate, reform will never happen on a national level, but an agreement between many of the big left out states (Texas, California, New York etc) along with smaller red or blue (non-swing) states is already in the works. The current thinking is that state would agree to give there electoral votes to the candidate who wins the national popular vote. A secondary idea that has been floated is that states would give a percentage equal to the national popular vote.

22   Bap33   2012 Oct 22, 8:17am  

New Renter says

Bap33 says



Here in mexifornia, the same voting system that voted for Prop 187(but had a lib activist court block the peoples voice), voted against sodomite marriage(but sees a lib activist court sending the same rejected notion back into court at will), voted against death penalty(but everyone I know wants a death penalty, and a faster one), and voted against legal dope(and the liberal activist court refuses to turn loose), is never questioned when it votes for feinstein, boxer, moonbeam, or Lord Barry to win an election. Using the unelected court in place of votes is a stupid idea. The power is supposed to sit with "the people", not "the chosen". When the people vote, it should count.


If you don't care for sodomites why do you have such a blatantly homoerotic avatar?

lol ... where in my post does it mention my personal views about sodmites?
I am not a sodomite .... no matter how hard I may try! lol

23   Honest Abe   2012 Oct 22, 8:37am  

Who do you trust more, yourself or government?

If you trust yourself to make the best decisions for you and your family vote for the American, Romney.

If you trust government to make better decisions than you could make for yourself and your family, then vote for the muslim.

24   leo707   2012 Oct 22, 8:57am  

Call it Crazy says

Honest Abe says

If you trust government to make better decisions than you could make for yourself and your family, then vote for the muslim.

Will I get a FREE Obama phone if I do that??

I am not aware of any Free Obama phone program, but regardless of who wins you probably will still be able to get a subsidized Bush phone -- depending on your income.

25   rooemoore   2012 Oct 22, 9:14am  

Honest Abe says

If you trust yourself to make the best decisions for you and your family vote for the American, Romney.

Hate the gays, hate the blacks, hate the immigrants, hate the socialists, hate the unions, hate the welfare moms, hate the liberals, hate the muslims, hate planned parenthood, hate pbs, hate teachers, hate public schools, hate tree huggers, hate environmentalists, hate the epa, hate woman who complain about equal pay, hate woman who complain about laws to control their bodies, hate woman who are 'feminists' , hate woman, hate atheists, hate liberal media, hate the other media (cuz it's liberal), still hate fags and lesbos, hate the poor....

but,

LOVE THE RICH. Which is good, because we are the job creators and if you don't love us we will fire your sorry ass.

26   zzyzzx   2012 Oct 22, 10:00am  

This far out I am going to boldly predict that the states that decide the election are NV, IA, OH, NH, and WI.

The other "swing" states IMO really are already decided or never really swing states to begin with. This means
Obama - MI, PA
Romney - NC, FL, VA

If I had to guess I'd say this:

If I had to make a narrower round of guesses, it's this:

27   zzyzzx   2012 Oct 22, 11:22am  

Quigley says

If Romney wins the popular vote but loses the election, the movement to ditch(or drastically reform) the electoral college will grow like wildfire.

Actually I'm more expecting PA to start splitting it's vote, like Nebraska and Maine.

28   Bap33   2012 Oct 22, 1:20pm  

Honest Abe says

Who do you trust more, yourself or government?


If you trust yourself to make the best decisions for you and your family vote for the American, Romney.


If you trust government to make better decisions than you could make for yourself and your family, then vote for the muslim.

excellant post

29   MsBennet   2012 Oct 22, 1:25pm  

I thought Romney won the debate 10/22. He was very presidential and I agreed with everything he said (I'm more moderate conversative.) Obama was pretty good but he paled in comparison really. He loses me at the "uhhhh." Then I tend to glaze over.

30   curious2   2012 Oct 22, 1:37pm  

Honest Abe says

If you trust government to make better decisions than you could make for yourself and your family, then vote for [Obama].

Multiple-choice Romnesia signed ObamneyCare proudly, then opposed it, then forgot he promised to repeal the whole thing and announced instead he'd keep parts of it. Romnesia wants to amend the Constitution of the United States to impose his cult's current definition of marriage, because he doesn't trust you to figure out for yourself whether you should get married to a man or a woman. He has never stood up for freedom or individual decision-making of any kind, in fact he opposes that because his cult requires him to believe that reason is a lesser faculty and people must do as they're told.

Bap33 says

excellant post

You can't even spell excellent, yet you presume to know whom people you've never even met should get married to. Such comments typify the Santorumesque mixture of ignorance and arrogance that the Republican party has fallen into in recent years.

There is nothing honest or American about putting a cult member in charge of nuclear weapons, even if you pronounce them "nuke-you-lar." Romnesia's corporate sponsors include merchants of war which is why in tonight's debate, he said he wanted America to get involved in Syria on the side of al Qaeda. And he wants America to take the side of the Haredim in Israel. War all over the world, and a tax shift that would bankrupt the republic, are not conducive to the interests of the United States nor the American people.

31   curious2   2012 Oct 22, 1:57pm  

MsBennet says

the debate 10/22

I thought Obama won, although mainly because it was about foreign policy while barely mentioning ObamneyCare. The most revealing line from the transcript:

"The good news is (inaudible)."

Romnesia reiterated his bullying/warmongering, trying to put America into wars all over the world. He likes to sound tough when none of his kids are in harm's way, but bullies aren't tough they're cowards. Also his tax shift is reckless and bad for the economy. "Trickle down" economics does not create jobs and it certainly doesn't balance the budget.

32   thomaswong.1986   2012 Oct 22, 2:46pm  

curious2 says

Romnesia reiterated his bullying/warmongering, trying to put America into wars all over the world.

ah yes.. pacifistic siding for which side again !
Of course you rather we have Obama Apology Tour 2013 - 2016.

curious2 says

Also his tax shift is reckless and bad for the economy. "Trickle down" economics does not create jobs and it certainly doesn't balance the budget.

doent ever come to Silicon Valley or think how things actually worked out during the 70s to the 90s around here. You will be disappointed... and certainly dont ever ask the local mayors how fat their tax revenues flowed in from the economic boom.

33   curious2   2012 Oct 22, 3:07pm  

thomaswong.1986 says

siding for which side again !
Of course you rather we have Obama Apology Tour 2013 - 2016.

Romnesia is always on the side of war, anywhere any time, so he can show what a "tough" bully he is by sending other people's kids off to die somewhere and enriching his corporate sponsors.

Obama did not apologize for the killing of Osama bin Laden. The "apology tour" is a false meme fabricated by the Romnesia campaign. W should apologize for messing up the Afghan and Iraq wars though.

The prosperity of Silicon Valley from the 70s through 90s did not result from Reagan's "trickle-down economics." Reagan didn't even take office until 1981, and he left in 1989, and in between he raised taxes many times. The success of Silicon Valley in the 1970s-90s had a lot more to do with the excellence of what used to be the best state university system in the nation, which is why the prosperity happened in California not Alabama.

34   thomaswong.1986   2012 Oct 22, 3:38pm  

curious2 says

The success of Silicon Valley in the 1970s-90s had a lot more to do with the excellence of what used to be the best state university system in the nation, which is why the prosperity happened in California not Alabama.

California had a pro business attitude which allowed the trickle down to benefit many.
Not only with the degreed employees but many many factory workers. Its no wonder many here back in the 60-70s saw this as did than Governor Ronald Reagan.
why else did so many vote for Reagan in 1980 and 1984.

You could of said the same regarding Universities around Route 128 in Boston... but they failed.

35   thomaswong.1986   2012 Oct 22, 3:40pm  

curious2 says

Romnesia is always on the side of war, anywhere any time, so he can show what a "tough" bully he is by sending other people's kids off to die somewhere and enriching his corporate sponsors.

Please do so.. as many Anti-war liberals said about Reagan.. and look around, The USSR is gone along with much of their nukes.. so having a tough leader does work.

36   thomaswong.1986   2012 Oct 22, 3:43pm  

curious2 says

Obama did not apologize for the killing of Osama bin Laden.

Obama never killed OBL.. the intel agencies had standing orders to find and kill/capture OBL long before Obama ever thought of running for office. It is those unknown intel and military professionals that take credit... they been at it for a long long time.

37   thomaswong.1986   2012 Oct 22, 3:45pm  

curious2 says

The "apology tour" is a false meme fabricated by the Romnesia campaign. W should apologize for messing up the Afghan and Iraq wars though.

There is no apology for going after OBL in Afghanistan or stopping Sadam in Iraq.
As for Iraq... then you would also disagree with the current situation with Iran.

38   curious2   2012 Oct 22, 3:50pm  

thomaswong.1986 says

Universities around Route 128 in Boston... but they failed.

Universities failed in Boston? I haven't heard of that before. Can you cite any examples? From what I heard, the 128 corridor prospered at least until RomneyCare kicked in.

thomaswong.1986 says

Obama never killed OBL.. the intel agencies had standing orders to find and kill/capture OBL long before Obama ever thought of running for office.

Obama personally authorized every step of the mission that killed bin Laden. Both of his predecessors tried but failed. Clinton missed his opportunity because he worried about blowing up a tent that was being used for prayers. W took his eye off the ball by shifting resources from Afghanistan to Iraq, then he said publicly that he wasn't even thinking about bin Laden anymore. Obama maintained focus, took the risk, and deserves credit for having succeeded where his predecessors failed. He doesn't claim credit for having gone there himself, unlike "bring 'em on" W in a flight suit in front of the "mission accomplished" banner.

39   curious2   2012 Oct 22, 3:53pm  

thomaswong.1986 says

There is no apology for going after OBL in Afghanistan or stopping Sadam [sic] in Iraq.

W let bin Laden slip out of Afghanistan, and gave $$$ to Pakistan, where OBL was living in a military town. W had previously hosted the Taliban in Texas, when he was governor. If W had finished the job in Afghanistan before shifting resources to Iraq, then the Taliban and bin Laden and Saddam (note spelling) Hussein could all have been dealt with for a fraction of the price. But that's the point: the idea is to maximize government spending, i.e. revenue for the patronage network. Both major parties do that, but somehow you don't see it when the Republicans do it. Why is that?

40   thomaswong.1986   2012 Oct 22, 3:57pm  

curious2 says

Universities failed in Boston? I haven't heard of that before. Can you cite any examples? From what I heard, the 128 corridor prospered at least until RomneyCare kicked in.

They died because of they were inflexible, unable to change with overhang of govt bureaucrats. Their EGOs killed them off.. its the same pathetic hype and snottiness we see in SV today.

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