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Do you have any sources for that, or is it anecdotal?
It was from an article I read a few months ago. In a brief search, I found a national number which is 4.2%. I would think BA would be similar if not lower than the national average.
That's a good link, but it doesn't track underemployment. So if someone is only working half-time, or working at a job under their normally expected level or salary, it still counts them as employed.
According to this article,
http://www.remappingdebate.org/article/hidden-toll-underemployment
There are over 9,000,000 who are underemployed, and it cuts across all educational levels.
Here's a graph that illustrates it:
http://www.remappingdebate.org/mediapopup?content=node/948
So I'm not sure your claim of anyone who is educated in the Bay Area and wants a house has income and can buy is valid.
Most government employees are basically ALL multi millionaires now.
Its the pensions. In order to throw off 80k a year 'until you die' you need to have about 10m in the bank at 1% interest rates and after tax you get 80k (a typical gov pension if they retire in 2020 or after). Of course cops/firemen/paper pushers get more.
They will say 'they pay into this fund' but its a lie - they are paying into it with salary from taxes not earned income from a non taxpayer funded job. Its like a kid getting an allowance - the parents earned that money really....
At any rate we are all free to become gov workers - so thats fair.
Its the 'French Dream' in thier country to do this. I think we are headed somewhere between France and Cuba politically..... especially once Obama gets in again. House payments will be based on your declared income - sales price doesnt matter the loan terms will be 31% of your combined w2. (the feds already have this structure setup - its called a loan mod via HARP or HAMP I cant remember, at some point it will apply to NEW PURCHASES just watch!)
Every time I pay taxes to support the welfare socialist state for the public sector unions which constantly vote themselves more benefits from my paycheck.
Incomplete sentence. Let me finish it for you.
"Every time I pay taxes to support the welfare socialist state for the public sector unions which constantly vote themselves more benefits from my paycheck, I poop my pants and need a fresh pair of depends."
So I'm not sure your claim of anyone who is educated in the Bay Area and wants a house has income and can buy is valid.
Where did I ever say that?
All I said was unemployment for the educated is 4%. The data supports that point. Saying that unemployment is too high is not a valid point when talking about better parts of the BA.
Its the pensions. In order to throw off 80k a year 'until you die' you need to have about 10m in the bank at 1% interest rates and after tax you get 80k
80K annual pension converts to about 1.2M @ 5% return or 1.8M with 1% return. Of course this depends on retirement age to be eligible for pension. but still, nowhere worth 10M.
They will say 'they pay into this fund' but its a lie - they are paying into it with salary from taxes not earned income from a non taxpayer funded job. Its like a kid getting an allowance - the parents earned that money really....
They forgot to consult you for your invaluable expertise, you must be so oppressed . . . .
All I said was unemployment for the educated is 4%. The data supports that point. Saying that unemployment is too high is not a valid point when talking about better parts of the BA.
What? Even your own stats show that unemployment is high.
Also if you simply wanted to bring up educated BA resident unemployment was low (you didn't even post any stats for the BA), why did you bring up the point "ie the ones who would be buying houses" ? That statement would imply that you believe educated BA residents would create demand for housing, unless you just mentioned that without purpose or reason.
My point was that unemployment and under employment would slow down home buying.
Also not to be a stickler, but you never actually posted data for "better parts" of the BA, and no stats about under employment which was my entire point, so until you do, your counterpoint is anecdotal and not based on anything but opinion.
Then why did you bring up point "ie the ones who would be buying houses" ?
Because the ones who are buying houses are not high school dropouts working construction jobs. It doesn't matter if 50% of those making minimum wage are unemployed. They aren't buying $800k houses (anymore).
I haven't been able to find the article that is specific to the BA. If you want to think the BA is above the national average that is your choice. I'm not sure why you want to believe something that you know or should know is not true.
Thank you from this school-teacher family that has so much cash that we don't know what to do with it. We have classrooms filled with upwards of 35 kids and usually not enough paper or pencils, but we really like selling baked goods to pay for classroom necessities.
You can thank the socialist state for that mess where all personal responsibility is replaced by socializing problems onto the society. You don't have to have 35 kids per classroom, but unions demand that we teach all the kids of illegal immigrants further using up the limited resources we have.
When municipalities are cash strapped and in dire need to cut budgets at least for the bell curve the unions are out banging drums, throwing temper tantrums like spoiled children. That's why we can never get any decent pension reform, or decent education reform.
And you really should not complain about your pay, you guys are well compensated. In a private sector folks are stretched out to pay for healthcare costs, while we have to cover 100% Cadillac healthcare benefits for the public sector even after their early retirement at 55.
I agree with Ft Wayne.
If you dont have a pension or a gigantic net worth you might be eating out of garbage cans when retired. Or if you are lucky you might be a butler for a governemnt retired pensioner with thier millionaire pensions. Hey now i sound like Mish complaining about unions! Anyway we can always self euthanize, no reason to live in the street poor and sick.
In a private sector folks are stretched out to pay for healthcare costs
Uh, sorry, no.
I pay $700 month for health insurance, which increases yearly.
Another $600 month goes straight out of my paycheck into the State Teacher's Retirement System.
In CA, teachers do not pay into nor do we receive Social Security.
We spend more of our tax dollars PER PRISONER than we do PER STUDENT and the United States currently incarcerates a higher percentage of its population than any other civilization in history (including during Stalin's reign in the Soviet Union).
I have three more homes under contract now, which will bring m total to 12
12 !!!! Are you using property management companies or dealing with the pesky tenants yourself?
If you dont have a pension or a gigantic net worth you might be eating out of garbage cans when retired.
It's the unions who fought hard for pensions (and the weekend and minimum wage and the 8-hour work day and safe working conditions).
Getting rid of unions (now only 12% of the US workforce is unionized) will not insure anyone's quality of life. The idea that unions are the problem is a smokescreen and the powers that be are helping us all race to the bottom and won't be satisfied until we are all working in 3rd world conditions.
Hey--I'm the first to argue that there are some reforms needed in public sector pension plans. And if you want to complain about salaries and waste, you should be pointing the finger at administrators, not the rank and file teachers.
But, regardless, unions are NOT the problem. I wish we had stronger unions fighting for the average Joe. Like Buffet said--there is class warfare, and the 1% is winning. By a LOT.
If you dont have a pension or a gigantic net worth you might be eating out of garbage cans when retired.
It's the unions who fought hard for pensions (and the weekend and minimum wage and the 8-hour work day and safe working conditions).
Getting rid of unions (now only 12% of the US workforce is unionized) will not insure anyone's quality of life. The idea that unions are the problem is a smokescreen and the powers that be are helping us all race to the bottom and won't be satisfied until we are all working in 3rd world conditions.
My brother is very conservative - not quite tea party or libertarian conservative, but close. He is 57 and retired last year with 2 pensions from larger CA cities. One city he worked for about 20 years and took an early buyout so he could head the dept (civil engineering) in the other city. He makes more money now than he ever did and has gone back to work part -time(w/o) benefits to city #1. BTW, he is not in a union.
If he lives as long as our father did, he will collect >$200k for the next 38years (with cost of living increases) And although he understands how this may be perceived as not fair you'd never get him to give up a penny of it.
So for all those conservatives here who want to point to government pensions as a big problem our country faces, you are right. But don't try to demonize the folks who are getting these because many of them are just like you. Hypocrite comes to mind, but human is more accurate.
Why do you keep on harping on this? Have you traveled much? Do you know how much real estate costs in NYC, Tokyo, London, HK, Buenos Aires, Syndney, Melbourne, Paris, Vancouver, Taipei, Singapore? Do you realize that no US city ranks in the top 10 of most expensive cities in the world?
Do you think SF compares more to a Frankfurt or to Oklahoma City? "Reason" would dictate that a more attractive city is more expensive than an unattractive city. Just because you don't find the Bay Area worth the cost doesn't mean the rest of us moving here don't. Perhaps you're the kind of person that's more comforable in Raleigh, NC than San Francisco. Good for you. Just stop with the bitching about other equally smart people wanting to pay a premium for the leaning left politics (try moving your fiancee out to NC and see how some of the locals treat her), the great weather/outdoors, and the high tech opportunities here.
Of course there are way more expensive places to live. I have been to many of them. It makes sense why they are expensive...the population densities are immense there, many of those places already built UP and there really isn't anywhere left to go. They are also fun places and damn near anything you need is within walking distance. If a busy area isn't something that bothers someone, then it is a great place for them and the exorbitant cost can be justifiable.
In contrast, the BA is mostly a dull splattering of concrete & strip malls, and outside of SF proper, you basically need a car. My interests happen to be in the outdoors, so there are obvious reasons why the lack of weather here makes the BA appealing. I have spent enough summers & winters in the northeast, and summers in the south, to know that they aren't on top of my list of places to go!
It isn't all bad here, by any means, and most things about the region are quite good. My beef isn't even with the high prices here, but with WHY prices are what they are here. It is perverse to knowingly buy into a system that is blatantly rigged to take you for most of what you are worth. I grew up here and have 80% of my family in the area, and would like to stick around them (and the really awesome hills/mountains). The prices on houses here are still stupid for what you get IMO. I don't mind renting at all, but the recent hikes are also upsetting what was a happy balance for us. Yeah, I know that reality dictates, "put up or shut up" but this thread happened to start out as a complaint-fest anyway (so I guess that you complaining about me complaining is OK after all).
Hey i dont blame the pensioners for being smart enuf to get in on the looting.
I'm the only one in my family not to get a check from the govt - brother, sister, both parents all get either gov salary or pension+ss. 'govt employees are rich people' is fooked up IMO, complaining doesnt help.
I'm not sure why you want to believe something that you know or should know is not true.
Because "tiny tina" is not an authoritative source for me, and didn't even cover underemployment which can be just as big a drag as unemployment. There is a high amount of both. But if you can find a source (BLS or otherwise) that shows the BA has low unemployment for people with degrees, and they are fully employed, then maybe you have a point, and housing in the BA just has lots of demand from local educated buyers flush with cash. So far that point hasn't been proven to be the case, just some here say and opinion.
Because the ones who are buying houses are not high school dropouts working construction jobs. It doesn't matter if 50% of those making minimum wage are unemployed. They aren't buying $800k houses (anymore).
That's not the point. If someone who graduated from Harvard has to take a $50,000 job because the $250,000 jobs simply don't exist anymore, are they going to buy an $800,000 home either? You are trying to make it out like the only people who can't afford homes in nice areas are gardeners and janitors. Tell that to someone who works at Apple and wants to buy in Cupertino on a $120,000 salary.
It is perverse to knowingly buy into a system that is blatantly rigged to take you for most of what you are worth
I was fortunate enough to be in a living situation where I had very negligible housing expenses for about 3 years after college. Then I rented with my fiance and later wife for about 5 years. Last year, we purchased a place. We are paying ahead towards principle and the goal is to be done with mortgage in the 2019-2025 range. I am very motivated to get as close as possible to having financial housing costs that resemble those first 3 years. Of course, there will be property tax and HOA, but that is negligible compared to renting or mortgage in this area. It's like chasing that first high lol.
Tell that to someone who works at Apple and wants to buy in Cupertino on a $120,000 salary.
I have a friend who has worked at apple since college - about 12 years. Not sure how much she makes - a lot is commission - but not a ton. And yet she bought a very expensive home last year. Thank you stock options.
My point is Apple may not be your best example.
Friends that went to Apple, all with 3-5 years of EE experience, are pulling a base salary of around $125k, and stocks and bonuses bring the annual gross compensation to more around $160k. Google is a similar story. Given FHA loan limits of $726k on 3.5% down, you bet that a number of people CAN finance an expensive house. I do not know how many actually DO, but they certainly CAN. Get a professional DINK couple pulling salaries like that and a few years of saving, and they CAN pull a jumbo loan (again, not sure how many DO).
Because "tiny tina" is not an authoritative source for me, and didn't even cover underemployment which can be just as big a drag as unemployment. There is a high amount of both. But if you can find a source (BLS or otherwise) that shows the BA has low unemployment for people with degrees, and they are fully employed, then maybe you have a point, and housing in the BA just has lots of demand from local educated buyers flush with cash. So far that point hasn't been proven to be the case, just some here say and opinion.
You received 2 sets of data that said nationwide unemployment for the college educated is ~4%. That is not my opinion. The fact that I read an article that said the same thing several months ago specific to the BA also is not my opinion. Again, if you don't want to believe me, that's fine. I would think someone would put 2 and 2 together though that the 4% unemployment is real for the educated in the BA, not just some made up number.
As for the underemployment stuff, I doubt there's a breakdown of that. Kind of like the specifics of the "shadow inventory." Maybe it's a factor, maybe it's not.
Goran_K says
That's not the point. If someone who graduated from Harvard has to take a $50,000 job because the $250,000 jobs simply don't exist anymore, are they going to buy an $800,000 home either? You are trying to make it out like the only people who can't afford homes in nice areas are gardeners and janitors. Tell that to someone who works at Apple and wants to buy in Cupertino on a $120,000 salary.
You seem to be misunderstanding my point. I never said prices were perfectly affordable in all parts of the BA for anyone who has a job. You tried to say I said that. Again, the point is that unemployment for the college educated is around 4% in the BA, maybe slightly higher if you throw in underemployment. Saying high unemployment is a reason why housing is in trouble is simply not true.
All I ask is for you to go to an open house in Cupertino this weekend. Let me know how many people you see there. Then tell me the supposed "high unemployment" is keeping housing down.
buy AAPL because money gives you the flexibility that complaining doesn't.
Second that. Anyone who have rented and invested the would-be downpayment (say, $20,000) since 1997, can now pay cash for a SFH with remaining AAPL worth similar.
Hi Goran,
My advice to you is to stay positive, be grateful for all you have and play the cards you've been dealt. That's basically what all of us have to do. Every generation faces unfairness, best just to deal with it and not dwell on it. Trust me - you have little to gain by allowing yourself to 'feel cheated' and much to lose as you will not be grateful for all that you have. I have no doubt that if you stay positive and play your hand to the best of your abilities you will accomplish your goals. Good luck!
Anyone who have rented and invested the would-be downpayment (say, $20,000) since 1997, can now pay cash for a SFH with remaining AAPL worth similar.
But anyone who put it into Netscape or 100 other hot companies would have lost it all.
Just sayin it's not so easy to pick the AAPLs.
All I ask is for you to go to an open house in Cupertino this weekend. Let me know how many people you see there.
That confirms lots unemployed people :)
Back in 1999, you don't see a lot people, because they have jobs and are busy to flip stock.
Hi Goran,
My advice to you is to stay positive, be grateful for all you have and play the cards you've been dealt. That's basically what all of us have to do. Every generation faces unfairness, best just to deal with it and not dwell on it. Trust me - you have little to gain by allowing yourself to 'feel cheated' and much to lose as you will not be grateful for all that you have. I have no doubt that if you stay positive and play your hand to the best of your abilities you will accomplish your goals. Good luck!
Russell, thanks for the post and kind words.
All I ask is for you to go to an open house in Cupertino this weekend. Let me know how many people you see there. Then tell me the supposed "high unemployment" is keeping housing down.
What is that supposed to prove? How many of them work 9-5? How many of them are investors? How many are "foreign"?
Sorry tiny tina, I know your'e trying to prove a point, but too much anecdotal conclusions and not enough data. I'm not trying to be difficult, but I don't know who you are from anyone else, and your opinion though important, is not proof that unemployment and underemployment are not problems in the BA housing market.
Sorry tiny tina, I know your'e trying to prove a point, but too much anecdotal conclusions and not enough data. I'm not trying to be difficult, but I don't know who you are from anyone else, and your opinion though important, is not proof that unemployment and underemployment are not problems in the BA housing market
Right now things are hot in the fortresses. REALLY hot as in 15 offers over asking and homes going 10 -30% over asking.
Now this may not last as the buyers dry up and the sellers start listing in earnest, but to say it's not happening is incorrect.
That's abnormal behavior based on a manipulated market.
We've seen this before, remember 2006?
All I ask is for you to go to an open house in Cupertino this weekend. Let me know how many people you see there. Then tell me the supposed "high unemployment" is keeping housing down.
That is not a good metric. I have gone to many in Cupertina/Saratoga/etc. with absolutely no intention of buying. I eat the cookies and talk crap to the realtard. The fact that I am there should not be reason for people to buy. Please don't add me to your stat cause I am there for free cookies only and the watch realtors start to shake when I ask how much I should overbid to win the bidding war.
It was from an article I read a few months ago. In a brief search, I found a national number which is 4.2%.
COSTELLO: I want to talk about the unemployment rate in America.
ABBOTT: Good Subject. Terrible Times. It's about 8 percent.
COSTELLO: That many people are out of work?
ABBOTT: No, that's 16 percent.
COSTELLO: You just said 8 percent.
ABBOTT: 8 percent unemployed.
COSTELLO: Right 8 percent out of work.
ABBOTT: No, that's 16 percent.
COSTELLO: Okay, so it's 16 percent unemployed.
ABBOTT: No, that's around 8 percent...
COSTELLO: Waits a minute. Is it 8 percent or 16 percent?
ABBOTT: 8 percent are unemployed. 16 percent are out of work.
COSTELLO: If you are out of work aren't you unemployed?
ABBOTT: No, you can't count the "Out of Work" as unemployed. You have to look for work to be unemployed.
COSTELLO: But they are out of work!!!
ABBOTT: No, you miss my point.
COSTELLO: What point?
ABBOTT: Someone who doesn't look for work, can't be counted with those who look for work. It wouldn't be fair.
COSTELLO: To who?
ABBOTT: The unemployed.
COSTELLO: But they are all out of work.
ABBOTT:No, the unemployed are actively looking for work ... Those who are out of work stopped looking. They gave up. And, if you give up, you are no longer in the ranks of the unemployed.
COSTELLO: So if you're off the unemployment roles, that would count as less unemployment?
ABBOTT: Unemployment would go down. Absolutely!
COSTELLO: The unemployment just goes down because you don't look for work?
ABBOTT:
Absolutely it goes down. That's how you get to 8 percent. Otherwise it would be 16 percent. You don't want to read about 16 percent unemployment do ya?
COSTELLO: That would be frightening.
ABBOTT: Absolutely.
COSTELLO: Wait, I got a question for you. That means ther're two ways to bring down the unemployment number?
ABBOTT: Two ways is correct.
COSTELLO: Unemployment can go down if someone gets a job?
ABBOTT:Correct.
COSTELLO:And unemployment can also go down if you stop looking for a job?
ABBOTT: Bingo.
COSTELLO: So there are two ways to bring unemployment down, and the easier of the two is to just stop looking for work.
ABBOTT: Now you're thinking like an economist.
COSTELLO: I don't even know what the hell I just said!
Unemployment numbers are way high since they now pay for 2 years vs used to be 6 months.
THUS these numbers can only be compared to the 'since it was raised to 2 years' which was what 08?
My brother is very conservative - not quite tea party or libertarian conservative, but close. He is 57 and retired last year with 2 pensions from larger CA cities. One city he worked for about 20 years and took an early buyout so he could head the dept (civil engineering) in the other city. He makes more money now than he ever did and has gone back to work part -time(w/o) benefits to city #1. BTW, he is not in a union.
If he lives as long as our father did, he will collect >$200k for the next 38years (with cost of living increases) And although he understands how this may be perceived as not fair you'd never get him to give up a penny of it.
So for all those conservatives here who want to point to government pensions as a big problem our country faces, you are right. But don't try to demonize the folks who are getting these because many of them are just like you. Hypocrite comes to mind, but human is more accurate.
There is no demonization of folks, its disdain for the system that has been destroying and looting the private sector.
There is no demonization of folks, its disdain for the system that has been destroying and looting the private sector.
There are boatloads of demonizing folks - plenty for everybody.RentingForHalfTheCost says
All I ask is for you to go to an open house in Cupertino this weekend. Let me know how many people you see there. Then tell me the supposed "high unemployment" is keeping housing down.
That is not a good metric. I have gone to many in Cupertina/Saratoga/etc. with absolutely no intention of buying. I eat the cookies and talk crap to the realtard. The fact that I am there should not be reason for people to buy. Please don't add me to your stat cause I am there for free cookies only and the watch realtors start to shake when I ask how much I should overbid to win the bidding war.
Are you really that bored, or are you, like many here, secretly dying to buy a home?
Of course I'm kidding. Or am I?
Another $600 month goes straight out of my paycheck into the State Teacher's Retirement System.
The key problem with the pensions is that they assume the fund will get some 8.5% return every year. If that happens, great.
If it doesn't then either the recepients or the taxpayers or both will have to be screwed. It is happening all over the country right now.
Pensions need to be converted to defined contribution, or at the very least get a transparent mechanism for what they will do if returns are lower than wished for.
Friends that went to Apple, all with 3-5 years of EE experience, are pulling a base salary of around $125k, and stocks and bonuses bring the annual gross compensation to more around $160k. Google is a similar story.
By who ? A hiring manager who took nearly 20 years getting up to 100K himself. And now all of sudden little Tommy with 3-5 years gets the same amount or more ($125k)... for doing what?
not likely... LOL! sorry the payroll records dont show salaries being that high.
It wasnt that long ago, Google itself admitted they were infact underpaying their people...thus get a catch-up increase.
COSTELLO: So there are two ways to bring unemployment down, and the easier of the two is to just stop looking for work.
LOL
I think the point has been made. Bravo RentingForHalfTheCost.
Anyone here feel cheated?
Uhuh I don't. Cheat'em back Goran. I don't find any solace in Socialism cause well they own that to. Or anytime they promote or give attention to anything for any length of time look out, cause their in it in some way. Take a grocery store. They own the paper. They own the goods in the store. They also own the labor that produced the goods, picked it, boxed it, warehoused it, trucked it, shelved it, checks it out.
Socialism don't mean anything but sport to these guys. Now if say in France (which I adore by the way). If they own the only legal means of trade (Euro). Whats the difference? Same as here. See they have to keep labor working or workers, working. That builds assets and keep the food rolling in to feed there workers. So now they own the paper, assets, goods and labor. Could lending? Could usury snowball into something like what you have today? They can get away with just about anything so I would say so.
Your thing is your lost in the system. Your a nice guy Goran I can tell. Your staring at the empire saying WTF? Its all so confusing and HUGE. Don't let them scare you with the basics. People know how to get food without using paper. Or being very clever with it. I'm not here to argue but to help. Don't ever look or wish for nirvana in their systems. Let them scare you with the basics your going to wind up in Wal-mart at 8 bucks an hour.
Goran I have seen so many guys like you say fuck them and wind up on top. You can't count them. You have to hate them. You have to hate having a boss. You have to hate the for all their fixed prices and owning the only legal means of trade. Goran when you see someone living in a 400k house with a 27k car. With a swift job. Don't ever think hey hes got it made. Think that nitwits up to his hairline in debt. Not only that they can take his jobbie and he's lost everything. Rather think that ain't the way to go. If I go to a university. I'll wind up being trained for them and they lose their jobs Goran. Don't forget that. Thats the real world. Now plot your course. I will help.
Goran guys like me hate these MF's so bad. You don't even know. See we get it. Guys like me that understand what their complicated swindels are about. We look at guy like you and say yea he's for equity and likes people. He's not out to run the world or screw the guy next door. He's not some cheese eating guy thats going to rat us out. I'm like you. But I got smart. The shear magnitude of their empire means they have so much. It has to be managed. However they put everything in compartments with Corporations. They don't even know who's who or everything they have. Thats where you get them Goran. When its gone they don't miss it or ever know its gone. Would I take from them? Do trees grow in the woods? Yep I sure do.
So some very simple thought. Don't ever believe what they say. Don't believe in government its a bear trap. If you don't believe in religion and that its a fucking waste of time that goes triple for the governement. Fractional reserve. Your whole fucking monetary system is lending. The entire thing. That adds up to beaucoup assets. Assets that are also being repossesed for non-payment on a daily basis. Forget the GD paper. Thats a trap also. You can't eat it, drink it, live in it or drive it. You understand those things. You won't waste your time in useless endevor's. Add to that the basics are very easy and obtainable. Your starting to get the idea.
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If you don't want to live in an apartment for 20 years, you're forced to participate in a ponzi scheme and overpay for a home. You want to live in an area without gang fights in a dirty alley behind your house every night, and have your children go to schools without metal detectors at every entrance, better be a dual income earning couple who is willing to teeter on the edge of foreclosure every month while eating ramen noodles, and going out to Jack in the Box for fine dining.
Be a saver? The FED makes your money worth less and less. The market starts to correct? Home inventory "magically" disappears just in time to create a false bottom.
How do you win? Any tips appreciated.
#housing