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Owneroccupier- I forgot to mention that my informal data taking did not include the Los Gatos Mtns region or properties over 1M. I was looking primarily in Santa Cruz/Aptos/Scotts Valley region.
I forgot the mention another big drop in 95033 in Montevina Road from 3.28M to 2.9M sitting on the market for at least 6 months.
As someone mentioned before, that area strides over the big San Andreas Fault, but it didn't deter any buyers last summer, and multiple properties were selling above asking.
I guess this year the buyers are thinking different, huh? When Los Gatos market cracks, it starts cracking from there first, because that area shares the same school district and city infrastructure (on a contract basis), so people who REALLY want to live in LG but cannot afford the price tag usually go up there, or people who REALLY want to live on a crack in the mountains. I have started to see some reductions in Los Gatos, will try to sort out and post later.
Jamie,
that Los Gatos mountains area typically go for around 600K or less even for the million-dollar looking one, due to the earthquake risk and poor infrastructure, unpaved roads, extreme weather, etc. Back 4-5 years ago, you could always pick up a small mountain cottage for 250K or so, now they are positioned as a starter home (yeah right!) at 600K.
It is about time they come down to their true values.
"that Los Gatos mountains area typically go for around 600K or less even for the million-dollar looking one, due to the earthquake risk and poor infrastructure,"
Owneroccupier, thanks for the background info. Those listings I saw are making a lot more sense now!
B.A.C.A.H.
2005 Nov 8, 3:23pm
One anecdote that recently dawned on me is that it's always the same homes that keep getting sold. There's homes in the neighborhood that are getting churned and others that have had the same owners for a long time.... there's not very much in-between.
Another anecdote that supports this observation comes from the weekly sales activity in the S.J. Mercury News. Every sale is listed, with the price, address, square footage, names of sellers and buyers. This information is taken from public records. Recently, the Merc has added an additional fact for each listed transaction: they include the year and sales price that the property was previously sold.
Just examine the listings - there's a whole lot more "recently" churned homes than can be accounted for by random. By recent, I mean within the past five years.
Why do "recent buyers" out-number "long time owners" among the sellers, even though the overall neighborhood is overwhelmingly populated by "long time owners?" One explanation is that recent buyers got in over their heads, sort of overcommitted, the carrying cost just too much to handle.
Anybody have an opinion on renting in Lake Merced area of SF?
New to town & would appreciate your thoughts.
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In the process of deciding whether to buy my house or not, I've spoken with 3 fairly neutral realtors on the Bay Area market. Sure seems like the first raindrops before an inevitable storm...or could it be a brief shower?
Realtor #1: "There is no doubt that there has been a shift in the market, most noticably even in the past 2 weeks. We are seeing 'retours'. That is, having to do multiple realtor-only showings. This is needed because houses are on the market so much longer than before. We've never had these before. Ditto on price reductions. Consumer confidence has dipped and rates are going up. People are cashing out and moving out".
Realtor #2: "We have not had any Coastside (around Half Moon Bay) property under $700k. Now we're seeing plenty. One property listed at $750k and sold for $650k...but the buyer fell through. Now it's listed for $599k."
Realtor #3: "Even very nice houses in Menlo Park are sitting on the market for a long time."
Me: driving down Alameda de las Pulgas yesterday from San Carlos to Palo Alto I saw GOBS of 'For Sale' signs. It seemed like I saw 3 at nearly every corner. And this is the slow time of year?
Colleague of mine: "I track the asking versus selling prices for the South Bay. Now I see virtually no cases where the seller is getting full asking...it is common to see 5-10% reductions. Seeing enormous amounts of Open House signs."
Folks, this stuff won't show in the news for a while...how about posting your anecdotes?
#housing