patrick.net

:”You may not like the rules of the game, you may not think they are fair, but until you get to a point where you can change the rules, the best you can do is know the rules as they are, rather than as you want them to be, and use them to your advantage.”

Worth repeating. Your teacher is a wise individual.

Again congrats ECBB.

Thanks E-man (and to BMWman91, and others who have wished me well).

I've been reading this site for far longer than most (little know fact, I was an admin on the forum that pre-dated this one) if there's one two (OK three) things I've learned it's 1) life's too short and 2) this place has given me a place to vent, bounce ideas of people of all stripes and opinions, and 3) prices don't always go up = but they don't always go down either.

Again - my heartfelt appreciation to Patrick who's been a beacon of both hope and sensibility for almost a decade now.

"the rotten backbone of America's economy"

As rotton as it is, there's a very very long line of people all over the world that are willing to sacrifice their lives to get here.

EastCoastBubbleBoy says

Again - my heartfelt application to Patrick who's been a beacon of both hope and sensibility for almost a decade now.

That's right. It's almost a decade now. Time flies.

E-man says

"the rotten backbone of America's economy"

As rotton as it is, there's a very very long line of people all over the world that are willing to sacrifice their lives to get here.

Sure. My concern is that if we don't find something more substantial than consumption to drive our economy, we'll stop being the kind of place that people would risk dying to get to.

E-man say

As rotton as it is, there's a very very long line of people all over the world that are willing to sacrifice their lives to get here.

Talk about resting on one's laurels.

E-man says

"the rotten backbone of America's economy"

As rotton as it is, there's a very very long line of people all over the world that are willing to sacrifice their lives to get here.

It depends. I know more and more immigrants who are considering moving back. A citizenship is becoming more like an insurance policy or just another option. Things change. Now for the unskilled labor-yes this place offers a lot-but if the dollar drops hard, then that advantage vanishes.

EastCoastBubbleBoy says

1) life's too short

Yes...there is definitely an argument to be made for the oft-maligned idea of 'instant gratification.'

EastCoastBubbleBoy says

my heartfelt application to Patrick

I've never heard it put quite that way before...?

bmwman91 says

Nope, just like anything you must put work into being happy

I think happiness is overrated.

bmwman91 says

Sure. My concern is that if we don't find something more substantial than consumption to drive our economy, we'll stop being the kind of place that people would risk dying to get to.

Then it goes back to what ECBB's teacher said above. It's beyond your control. The best we can do is know the rules as they are and use them to our advantage.

lostand confused says

It depends. I know more and more immigrants who are considering moving back.

Could it be that you're hanging out with the wrong crowd?

E-man says

Then it goes back to what ECBB's teacher said above. It's beyond your control. The best we can do is know the rules as they are and use them to our advantage.

I disagree that it is the BEST we can do though though. When everyone takes that attitude, everything just goes to shit as we are presently witnessing all across America. Schools do not teach civics like they used to, and even when I was in primary school what they taught was vastly watered-down compared to what my parents got, but going all the way through Boy Scouting to Eagle made up for it I suppose. It is a citizen's responsibility, and ultimately in their own best interest even if it is not immediately apparent, to maintain the system and work to preserving it. The system is MORE than just the economy, but everyone seems to have forgotten that. I can't really hold it against people that immigrated here for not necessarily thinking along those lines since it is sort of one of those things that gets taught in elementary school here, but it is still important. Besides, wouldn't we want to leave to our children an America that is at least as good as it is today? Money alone isn't the best that one can leave to their kids, at least not here. If freedom continues to become something that one must BUY, then America is headed straight for the pits.

So, one needs to be realistic and understand that they are very unlikely to totally fix the system, but it is important to see what is wrong with it and at the least try not to add to that. America can't survive if everyone just keeps to themselves and works solely for their own gain/survival.

EastCoastBubbleBoy says

my heartfelt application to Patrick

I've never heard it put quite that way before...?

I should spell check better... Guess that what happens when you're up at 12:00 am. after a ten hour day.

EastCoastBubbleBoy says

the days of large year over year price drops are over.

You speak as if we had years and years of large price drops...

We had almost a two year period where, every month, the Y-o-Y decline was significant. Many said that prices "always went up" until they suddenly didn't. Once the trend of rising prices started to reverse itself, others said "prices are going to continue to drop" and were saying it at the time of my OP. So far it seems as if my analysis has been mostly correct.

Also, I put my money where my mouth was, buying in 2012. Yes I'm breaking my own arm patting myself on the back - but even I'm impressed at how right I was. Normally when I make predictions on blogs like this I end up with egg on my face

Here's my take on it. If you look at the long term C-S index it tells quite an interesting story. Prior to the 1900's, prices were more erratic. Boom and bust cycles were seen as natural events back then, and the government did not intervene much, if at all. You can see the wild price swings, but they all centered around a mean of about 100.

Fast forward to the deceased after WWII. Price swings were more modest, and the mean shifted up to about 110. I think this is due to the rise of the two income household. More money = more house.

Now lets look at recent history. Level is now in or around 130. I think this is directly attributable to the governments attempt to put a floor on this - from low interest rates to large hedge funds buying up properties, The powers that be wanted to stop the bleeding and like it or not, it seems that they have succeeded.

Going forward I think we'll see a few smaller boom / bust cycles over the next decade with the index fluctuating around the "new normal" mean index value of about 130.

(Images below) Large chart is taken from Barry Ritzholt's blog. The link to the smaller chart of more recent data is from the New York Times website.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/05/31/business/economy/case-shiller-index.html?ref=standardpoorscaseshillerhomepriceindex&_r=0#city/IND20