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Patrick, any 2012 predictions?


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2011 Dec 22, 3:10am   29,105 views  52 comments

by Duke   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

I understand that the macro economic picture remains murky, and this slow moving train wreck has already lasted longer than most had ever predicted, but what does your instinct tell you for 2012?
Some are seeing depreciation coming to the core. Others see wealth transfer and information jobs keeping Bay Area Fortress prices high.
For me, I feel the old truism, "You can't fight the Fed". As long as the Fed keeps interest rates at historic lows, it will be hard to move housing prices down quickly. I see 2012 pushing prices down a 2-3% real and thus 3-4% nominal.
One possible big mover would be European or Japanese debt repudiation. The loss of a big chunk of retirement assets could hasten sales, but what a pyric victory.

#housing

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47   ArtimusMaxtor   2011 Dec 26, 12:58am  

http://www.youtube.com/embed/Xx1i_Fzrd3o&feature=youtu.be

http://youtu.be/watch?v=hbsW-vooxdU&feature=youtu.be

I find this interesting. However it misses the key. To the control issue of these people of in his subject. Another words what the gentleman in video is trying to convey.

The key to the control is very, very simple. Debt. When one owes. One owns nothing. One does what one is told. One has fear of the one who is owed. There are some minor points I do like. In the video.

One might think to himself true I owe on the house. But I own my furniture free and clear. Not true. If you owe everything you have is owned until payment is completed. The hysterial part of all of this is that someone making 500k a year. House paid for thinks he's not owned. However when on any kind of payment system be it for electric or cable. The same holds true. Thats why they only take monthly payments on such things. People that are just so grateful for the debt merchants that helped make their lives and don't know why. Yet the people that have cleared everything off the books are still on monthly payment plans. I find that hilarious. It's not funny not at the expense of the people who pay the monthly cable, electric and water etc. However I am laughing at the fucking deviousness of the debt merchants.

At some point you think someone, somewhere. Would turn and say the debt merchants that got them into this. You all are nothing but a bunch of swindeling sloths. That love having all of the labor. Low down sneaky, no good vermin using trickery. I can get everyone to nod their heads yes to that. For about 5 seconds. Then MOST of the heads will be again nodding no after that 5 seconds. See if the confusion in your mind is the nodding of your head yes then no. Because of the confusion of your thoughts. Thats real. Once again no one in this land has had the balls to call the debt merchants usuor's. Simple fact. However to drive the point home to the source of confusion: an example. A house that takes three months to build. Takes 30 years to pay off. Confused???? Stupid deal to be in. Then you rationalize and then resign. Now you know why.

48   Raven Stole My Potato   2011 Dec 26, 1:23am  

Guys, it's not going to be fixed, none of it. What can we return to anyway? What could we return to "If" anything could be fixed? More borrowing, more frivolous spending, more credit card abuse, more home equity abuse, more job outsourcing, new alien style finacial wizardry to con more foreign investors, What? There are roughly 76 million boomers retiring and they now want to sell everything they have to retain a pittance of a retirement and this just adds to the housing problem..

Here's another thought, If a jet airliner is headed strait for the ground to crash and has only 100 feet to go before it hits the ground, do your actually think that changing pilots will stop the crash or fix anything or return us to anything? If Ron Paul is allowed to win by the elites, it won't be to fix anything, it will be to throw him and the TP and the OWS and the Republican party under the bus all at once and let them take the blame for the crash of the country. Once they are all out of the way, it will be clear sailing for the Fascist/Socialists to complete their mission.

Folks, all this discussion of rising interest rates, changes in polititians, NAR lies or not, bears and bulls is all for naught. America is that Jet Liner and we are months or weeks before the final crash. I would simply suggest that you all just prepare yourselves for some lifestyle changes you never believed possible.

49   EastCoastBubbleBoy   2011 Dec 26, 8:49pm  

(Please excuse my spelling - too busy to spell check this one)

They announce that we are (and have been) in a recession sometime towards the end of the spring / early summer.

Election politics will get ugly.

Prices down 4% Year over year nationally, but some areas have (or are close to) bottoming, and start to recover.

The 2012 mayan end of age hype catches up with us. Otherwise ordinary people start behving irrationally, undermining one of the key tennants of our financial sytem - rational behavior. Not sure how it manifests itself, but the reprecussions will be ugly once 2012 comes to a close without any extinction type incidents occuring.

50   B.A.C.A.H.   2011 Dec 27, 2:15am  

EastCoastBubbleBoy says

Election politics will get ugly.

Yep. This is how ugly it will get, like 1968:

B.A.C.A.H. says

If, for whatever reason (economy, Republican infighting, etc.), Obama's campaign starts looking ilke a juggernaut in comparison to any Republican "alternative", then Obama won't live to win the election. Like the Kennedy brothers didn't live to win theirs. Like Reagan "getting in the way" almost didn't live to be reelected.

51   JodyChunder   2011 Dec 27, 3:25pm  

does any one else feel POSITIVE about this coming year? I feel change is coming.

52   justwantaniceplacetostay   2011 Dec 27, 7:05pm  

In 2012

Someone will get elected and the banks will put in their man as Treasury Secretary.

RE market will continue to have bottomed

More and more low wage temp jobs with no benefits will make up the job recovery

A war may be started as a stimulus package for the Pentagon Suppliers Group as the other two wind down

Rentals will still be horrible

Homes will remain overpriced

Banks will charge us interest to store our money

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