patrick.net

Quigley says

All real estate markets are local.

I can't believe that there are still people who believe in this rubbish. This is exactly, why we are a long, long way from a true bottom in all the markets across the board. For the umpteenth time, markets are local, but lending is global. Global lending (ie. debt deleveraging) has a 100x larger affect than the variations you will see on the local level.

So please someone tell me why are home prices still sky high in the bay area?

robertoaribas says

when the rent alone on these three is giving me an over 8% return on the entire asset price, even with maintenance and vacancy estimated? where else will I get 8% on my money? AND, with such low supply to demand, prices will continue to rise.

Prices would continue to rise in a free market. This is anything but. And sure you'll get a decent return on rent if you can keep them rented, but I would worry about the value of the houses. Not to mention you didn't buy with cash. There's leverage involved here. I hope your sake you're right, for the country's sake I hope you're wrong. I'm still too uncomfortable to buy because I want to make my money in appreciation if all else fails. If I can't, I want no part of a wrotting house and just over broke renters to keep my head above water. That's no way to live.

My best friend's doing here in Fort Lauderdale similat to what you're doing. He's buying dumps at tax deed sales. Working his butt off cleaning up these places. But he's buying with cash. It's driving him nuts that he's not making money on his money for the first time in his life. He seems happy and a little in denial. From what I see after expenses he's barely making a profit. His only chance will be if these properties appreciate some day.

I don't think mathematics these days will help you as much as understanding market psychology. Granted, the only way the banks can save themselves is by another bubble but I don't think they nor the Government has the juice to pull it off. Just hearing things like Warren Buffet telling people it's a great investment gives me the major creeps.

SJ says

So please someone tell me why are home prices still sky high in the bay area?

A huge inflow of rich male real estate investors from Phoenix. Did you now the house price have nearly doubled over there in the last 2 years. 100% return on leveraged debt. Now that is the American dream.

I have it under good authority that these real estate investors have bought up enough rentals for yard sale prices that they are pulling in 7 figure monthly incomes. Each month they can afford a new BA house. Don't believe me, go check out some open houses and watch for the Arizona license plates. The minute you see one, don't even bother to bid. These guys have a trunk load of cash and will make you feel inferior. Probably best to move to Phoenix and just rent one of their units. It'll cost you twice as much as buying, but at least you'll be warm in the summer.

robertoaribas says

Haha, but not going to happen! I'm taking my riches to the beaches of Thailand, or Ecuador... Not overpriced bay area with cold dirty water, crowded freeways, and bankrupted government!

What happens when the military lead government takes your possessions, and threatens to shoot you in the streets if you complain?

robertoaribas says

Oh, so you mean if prices went up 50% or so, there would be more sellers? even you halfabrain should realize that is called obvious

Of course there would be more sellers. Everyone who was underwater and totally sick of where they feel they've been forced to live all these years will become sellers. I have several friends that would love to get out from under their homes. This market has caused their neighborhoods to decline. And when I asked them what they plan to do if they sell, they all said they would, "rent for a while."

When I sold my condo I wanted to get away from the East Coast and move to San Diego or San Francisco and possibly buy. I see from reading this blog that would be financially insane. What's Oregon prices doing? That would be my next pick.

Housing in many areas of the US was in a massive bubble from 1997 to 2007. Just look at the average income increase over that time frame and the average home price increase. We are treading water right now before another 30% drop in housing by 2015. Unless you can buy good stock at $50 a s.f., I would stay away.

I am with Roberto- rather buy beach front property in Caribbean, Thailand or South America and retire wealthy and happy as the USA becomes a police state.

robertoaribas says

Goran_K says

robertoaribas says

Haha, but not going to happen! I'm taking my riches to the beaches of Thailand, or Ecuador... Not overpriced bay area with cold dirty water, crowded freeways, and bankrupted government!

What happens when the military lead government takes your possessions, and threatens to shoot you in the streets if you complain?

what happens when you die of crotch fleas?

I guess we'll both be dead!

Roberto can be pretty funny at time. Nice! I wonder if there is a real estate bubble in the afterlife because of the baby boomer demographics. If you owned on earth they you become a rentor, if you rent then you become the landlord. Oh, the justice of it all. ;) If you were a man, then a women. Poor then rich. Ugly then handsome, etc. etc. Kinda sucks for the middle of the road people, they won't really change much.

Bigsby says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Sales are still at record low levels. A bump from the bottom is still a long way from normal.

And a long way from 1975...

Not in inflation adjusted terms. Not at all. Wait for it...

SJ says

as the USA becomes a police state.

"Becomes" a police state? IS a police state... http://discoverpolicing.org/whats_like/?fa=types_jobs

RentingForHalfTheCost says

If you were a man, then a women. Poor then rich. Ugly then handsome, etc. etc. Kinda sucks for the middle of the road people, they won't really change much.

Rebirth is like a pendulum. The middle of the road people been there done that. We just can't remember. Unless...

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says

Everyone who is thinking about buying a home should watch The Road 16-20 times while high on meth and then ask themselves, what will a home be worth after shit 100x as bad as that going down?

Loved that movie (except one scene sort of freaked me out).