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When Can We Call it a "Buyers Market?"


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2006 Aug 1, 1:17am   29,392 views  215 comments

by SQT15   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

foreclosure for dummies

Scores of realtors® are throwing out the term "buyers market" hoping to lure buyers into purchasing the ever increasing inventory of overpriced $hitboxes that are currently on the market.

But most housing bears still aren't buying it. Is it because homes are still way too high in value? Or do you think it's just too early to say the buyers now have the advantage?

At what point would you call it a "buyers market?" What will you look for?

#housing

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157   GallopingCheetah   2006 Aug 1, 4:08pm  


In fact, most of the expensive Chinese ingredients are utterly tasteless and gooey and involve extreme animal cruelty - like camel humps and bear paws.

You forgot one thing: Tiger penis.

Here is a recipe from the web:

tiger penis soup
(thing) by zgirll (2.7 mon) (print) ? 1 C! Wed Jun 13 2001 at 18:42:58

This recipe was graciously given by “Miss Casey”, the head waitress at the Pu Chung Pao resturant in Taizhong, Taiwan. If you prefer, you can buy a bowl of this tasty?? soup for a mere 400 dollars. This recipe makes 8 bowls of Tiger Penis Soup.

1 tiger penis, dried
24 other spices and medicines, including rhino horn, bear gall bladder, tiger bone, and ginseng
Soak the tiger penis in water for one week. Simmer with the 24 spices and medicines for 24-26 hours. Serves 8

Tiger Penis has long been valued by practicioners of eastern medicine as an aphrodesiac. The penis can be taken in soup, ground in wine, or soaked in rice alcohol for 6 months. Results vary, and recent interviews indicate that the recent influx of via ... gra ... into the traditional markets of China, South Korea, and Taiwan has caused the demand for tiger penis to drop. Apparently via ... gra ... has more reliable results than penis of tiger. That could also be due in part to the common substitution of ox or deer tendons for real tiger penis by some unscrupulous shop owners.

Medicinal uses of tiger parts has contributed greatly to the extinction of some species of tigers, and the near-extinction of others. Worldwide tiger populations, over 100,000 at the turn of the century are now estimated to be around 9,000. Despite the outlawing of killing tigers for body parts in virtually all the places where they are found, a brisk trade still exists in tiger medicine. In April, 1999 and survey was taken of Chinese markets in New York’s Chinatown by the Environmental Investigation Agency, an international non-profit organization. Sixty three percent of the markets surveyed either sold or claimed to sell goods containing tiger parts.

Traditional Chinese medicine gives body parts of certain animals the ability to transfer the power of that animal to a human consuming or wearing that body part. The tiger is able to mate vigorously and repetitivly over several days. The average length of these mating is only 15 seconds, however. hmmmmmmm.

Other traditional uses for tiger body parts are:
whiskers - give protection from bullets, give user courage, and prevent toothache.
eyeballs - rolled into pills, prevent and treat epilepsy and convulstions
brains - mixed with oil and rubbed over body - cures laziness and acne
bones - mixed into wine, cures rheumatism
tail - rubbed on body, said to cure skin problems

heart - cooked and eaten, imparts strength, courage, and cunning

158   Peter P   2006 Aug 1, 4:09pm  

Shark fins are tasteless and NoCal has some of the best abalone in the world. In fact, most of the expensive Chinese ingredients are utterly tasteless and gooey and involve extreme animal cruelty - like camel humps and bear paws.

Shark's fin tastes great when cooked with supreme soup made of chicken and ham broth. Most restaurants do not cook it right because they go cheap on the broth.

Do you know if it is still possible to get bear paws legally?

159   Peter P   2006 Aug 1, 4:14pm  

I have never tried bear paws but I heard it is a delicacy.

160   GallopingCheetah   2006 Aug 1, 4:23pm  

Peter P,

You can learn bear hunting. I recommend Marlin 1895G (lever action) as your first bear gun. I've seen great reviews of 1895. There are organized, guided bear hunt trips in Alaska. To you, they should be affordable.

161   Peter P   2006 Aug 1, 4:27pm  

To you, they should be affordable.

Perhaps not. I am not Marina Prime. :)

162   GallopingCheetah   2006 Aug 1, 4:29pm  

Vodka Advice

A new priest at his first mass was so nervous he could hardly speak. After mass he asked the monsignor how he had done. The monsignor replied, "When I am worried about getting nervous on the pulpit, I put a glass of vodka next to the water glass. If I start to get nervous, I take a sip."

So the next Sunday he took the monsignor's advice. At the beginning of the sermon, he got nervous and took a drink. He proceeded to talk up a storm. Upon return to his office after mass, he found the following note on his door:

1. Sip the Vodka, don't gulp.

2. There are 10 commandments, not 12.

3. There are 12 disciples, not 10.

4. Jesus was consecrated, not constipated.

5. Jacob wagered his donkey, he did not bet his ass.

6. We do not refer to Jesus Christ as the late J.C.

7. The Father, Son, and Holy Ghost are not referred to as Daddy, Junior, and the Spook.

8. David slew Goliath, he did not kick the shit out of him.

9. When David was hit by a rock and knocked off his donkey, don't say he was stoned off his ass.

10. We do not refer to the cross as the Big T!

11. When Jesus broke the bread at the Last Supper he said, "Take this and eat it, for it is my body", he did not say, "Eat me."

12. The Virgin Mary is not referred to as the, "Mary with the Cherry".

13. The recommended grace before a meal is not: "Rub-A-dub-dub, thanks for the grub, yeah God". and finally...

14. Next Sunday there will be a taffy-pulling contest at St.Peter's, not a peter-pulling contest at St. Taffy's.

163   GallopingCheetah   2006 Aug 1, 4:37pm  

who is marina prime?

164   GallopingCheetah   2006 Aug 1, 4:41pm  

Peter P,

From a website:

Fall bear hunting trips 10 days 1 hunter X one guide $9500
Spring bear hunting trips 14 days 1 hunter X 1 guide $9500

$10K is what some ex-military park ranger said on another board.

Even with an experienced guide, hunting grizzlies is still a dangerous adventure.

165   GallopingCheetah   2006 Aug 1, 4:51pm  

SQT, Thanks.

$400K in IB is nothing. A couple of mil a year, then the man is somebody (possibly a junior VP).

Grad school friend from Germany told me that his college classmate is now a technical fellow (computer network security) at JP Morgan (or Morgan Stanly or whatever) in London. Younger than I. late 20's. 700K a year. Not sure if it's dollar or pound sterling.

166   salk   2006 Aug 1, 11:11pm  

WSJ report today that Robert Fallor's condo-tels developments in Miami Beach and Chicago are in jeopardy. He hasnt made any payments for several months. "Hedge funds are stepping in to takeover the investments..." Not a good sign.

167   salk   2006 Aug 1, 11:44pm  

Nonadamas, you think Jacksonville racist? I used to travel to SF. Try getting served in a Chinese restaurant in China Town where locals are. They look at you like"what the F are you doing here?" I quickly found out what racism is in the US. Worse try walking the streets of inner city America- you are in for a real surprise Nonadamas.

168   Different Sean   2006 Aug 1, 11:48pm  

One interpretation is that the concept of the market is an unstable concept that tried to fill in when human society evolved beyond kinship groups. After that, our altruistic impulses and our selfishness just got all confused. (DS ought to like this idea, since it would support going back to a noble savage like existence)

oh yes, love it. i was reflecting on this just yesterday by a coincidence -- really truly. we live in an atomised, depersonalised society, where we see other people as instrumentalities, as things who will provide us with something, where we get caught up in endless acquisition and systems of status markers... i think i was trying to understand why there is constant saturation advertising everywhere and salespeople exist...

169   DinOR   2006 Aug 2, 12:08am  

doc1,

What's not to like? Standing back (at a safe distance) and watching these P.T Barnum types and their road show "Condo Flipper's Circus" implode has become quite a hobby of mine. You've really got to try it!

170   DinOR   2006 Aug 2, 12:11am  

HARM,

LOVED the Kalifornia Guide to Dealing with the The New Reality (I mean lowball offers). Like Michael Anderson said, people in Bend seem to want to think 200% appreciation in a few years is "normal" and yet a 50% correction would some how be a depression?

Start liking it!

171   DinOR   2006 Aug 2, 12:26am  

StuckinBA,

Great article from the OCC. Of all the regulatory agencies these guys have been the closest thing to a consumer advocate to date. Also not surprising to note that the only group that had any objections to a tightening of lending standards was the NAR! Safe Haven always has "da goods". Thanks.

172   DinOR   2006 Aug 2, 12:54am  

George,

Good point. Is this the last hurrah for FB's and GF's? The other aspect that is going to plague the lending industry is that as DTI skyrockets many of their clients will no longer be approved for "slam dunk" HELOC's etc. Or certainly at the low rates they've been touting in the past. So no more re-financing your way out of a painted corner!

173   DinOR   2006 Aug 2, 1:29am  

MA,

Doesn't surprise me at all. There CAN be legitimate reasons for tapping into one's 401K. Because your home "equity" is exhausted and you need to further fund your "lifestyle" isn't one of them. Perhaps these are some of the "lost men" SFWoman warned us about? To be sure most are still very gainfully employed and are slipping down to HR during their break to "fast track" their loans.

Now we're seeing the "other" side of the housing boom. Instead of the home that keeps giving and giving (Housing ATM Machine/Equity Liberator) what we now find is the home that keeps draining and leaking! An "alligator" if you will. Rather than a constant and unending source of liquidity they now require regular feeding.

174   DinOR   2006 Aug 2, 1:39am  

June Phillips,

I spent a large portion of my adulthood overseas. Trust me, no one would have liked to sit this debacle out more than me. You're sick and tired? Ahem, you have been graciously spared having house rich homedebtors (people that are deluded enough to believe they actually own the home, not the bank) rub their HELOC funded lifestyles in your nose at every opportunity.

There is ample evidence that the long awaited crash is now in full swing. Please feel free to go through the archives and watch as housing "perma-bulls" have vacated and are now very much on the defensive. Also visit the many other housing bubble sites that will absolutely overwhelm you with data from coast to coast. Read, research and enjoy. If you would like please feel free to "buy now before you are priced out forever" but do so at your own risk. Smart money has long since taken their profits and like many here are waiting eagerly on the sidelines.

175   DinOR   2006 Aug 2, 1:47am  

MA,

Good question. The truth is that seldom if ever are these loans repaid and the "extractor" gets a 1099 at the end of the year heralding the arrival of income they will be additionally taxed on. (On top of 10% early withdrawal penalty). More times than not the individual does not have the liquidity come the 14th of April so the elect not to file. Chalk up one more entrant either to the "underground economy" or a newly minted member of the "The IRS is F'ing with Me" club!

176   Randy H   2006 Aug 2, 1:54am  

astrid said:

One interpretation is that the concept of the market is an unstable concept that tried to fill in when human society evolved beyond kinship groups. After that, our altruistic impulses and our selfishness just got all confused. (DS ought to like this idea, since it would support going back to a noble savage like existence)

DS said:

oh yes, love it. i was reflecting on this just yesterday by a coincidence — really truly. we live in an atomised, depersonalised society, where we see other people as instrumentalities, as things who will provide us with something, where we get caught up in endless acquisition and systems of status markers… i think i was trying to understand why there is constant saturation advertising everywhere and salespeople exist…

Hmmm. Let me think about this notion. A "market" is somehow a contrived, artificial concoction; markets wouldn't exist "naturally" except but for all this human greed and consumption. The extension is that in the "pre-market" dawn of human civilization people lived some kind of gentle, noble utopian existence.

The second idea is so preposterous it need not be countered thoughtfully. Archaeological evidence is to the contrary. Early human societies -- at least any you might label "pre-markets" -- were marked by short, and often intensely violent lifespans. I posit that anyone today prognosticating about the virtues of ancient existences would not survive themselves in such an environment for more than 2 weeks.

The first idea is just a misunderstanding of what a "market" is. Markets exist whenever there are more than one person competing for the same scarce resource. Many primate species exhibit distinct market making behaviors. There are also aspects of market making that occur in organized collective hive insect colonies.

177   DinOR   2006 Aug 2, 1:56am  

June Phillips,

Beleive me, no one understands the need, the primal drive to re-immerse yourself in your native culture more than me. Of the 9 years I spent in the Navy almost 7 consecutive years were spent in S.E Asia. Let me further assure you that the "good ole U.S.A" as you might have remembered it is either gone or severely altered (depending on the length of your hiatus).

You see here in Amerika we are no longer required to have gainful employment. We simply purchase a primary residence with no money down and make "interest only payments", wait a few months and then extraxt the hard earned equity to fund our lifestyles! After a few years we further extract equity to buy second, vacation and "investment" homes which further facilitate our equity extraction livlihoods. We no longer make any thing here. We just make our livings selling houses to each other. Welcome to the United States of Real Estate!

178   DinOR   2006 Aug 2, 2:14am  

June Phillips,

Having bought in 2003 or even 2001 is NO guarantee we won't revisit those price levels again! When this is all said and done perhaps only those that purchased in the 90's and DIDN'T re-fi and take equity out can start "break dancing" with joy! Here at patrick.net we love to talk about reversion to the mean. Wages and salaries have actually declined in real terms and we're in uncharted waters in terms of any traditional relationship with affordability. The housing data is pouring in on us from all quarters and we can barely keep up with the negative reports. Depending on where you live you may have missed your window to walk outta here with "big fat stacks". If you don't believe me, call your realtor and tell them you want to list TODAY and "really test the market"! The reception may not be as warm as you're anticipating. Inventory is starting to pile up. (Yes even in the BA)!

179   DinOR   2006 Aug 2, 2:23am  

George,

Oh and I still owe you for the use of your now patented phrase, "If the seller ain't cryin' I ain't buyin' btw, just last night my wife and I were trying to wrap our minds around something that may seem a little bizarre.

Is there a way to which you are aware to calculate the number of "Wasted Days and Wasted Nights"? A Freddy Fender classic to be sure but what we were trying to calculate is the number of never occupied (or empty flipper homes) multiplied by the number of "wasted days" they continue to go empty? I mean just think of it! What an incredible waste of resources. What an incredible waste of "utility". Just having all those empty homes out there, plus the interest meter (that's always running) boggles the mind. Maybe we're looking at the future of "time shares"?

180   DinOR   2006 Aug 2, 2:28am  

tsusiat,

I move for a second as inclusion into the glossary!

God you bust me up!

Like a lot of military jargon it's bound to get perverted down the line like:

The United States of Shitty Realtors (or something like that) but the original will always be yours sir! Oh, btw do any out there know the meaning of "FUBIJAR"? We all know what "BOHICA" stands for right?

181   DinOR   2006 Aug 2, 2:34am  

"FUBAR"?

If we're going to watch this crash in "real time" these are going to be terms all would do well to familiarize themselves with!

182   DinOR   2006 Aug 2, 2:40am  

George,

Absolutely! In fact I'm half hoping they keep the "neg am" around just long enough (for those with deserving FICO's) to take advantage of it! That or put together a "vulture fund" to work it in a bigger way. (We're already talking about how best to structure that as we speak). Because we're anticipating plenty of short term cap gains it may make sense to do that in a "self directed" IRA where we can even get our hands on some tax liens etc. without having to pay cap gains. Think of it as going in "after the battle" to bayonet the wounded? Sick, I know but someone's gotta do it!

183   Peter P   2006 Aug 2, 3:41am  

Is it a buyers’ market in Detroit?

It's a giveaway market in Detroit.

184   Peter P   2006 Aug 2, 3:46am  

I miss Marina Prime…and the tirades he’d get from Surfer-X.

Should we un-ban him? :-P

185   Peter P   2006 Aug 2, 4:03am  

This might be new topic material, but curious on people’s thoughts — other than the weather and proximity to Stanford/Berkeley, what prevents the Bay Area from becoming Detroit one day (technology being commoditized and sent to the south or India, state’s brutal fiscal situation prohibiting upward mobility, etc)?

Stanford alone is sufficient to keep it alive for a long time. You can feel the good feng shui just walking in the campus. I think the luck of the Bay Area is still there.

186   HARM   2006 Aug 2, 4:11am  

June Phillips,

I'm a little curious about your motives for buying. You said, "I had the opportunity to buy before I took on this oversea assignment in 2001, and again when I came back for a visit in 2003, but I didn’t."

Does this mean if you had bought back in 2001/03, you would still have gone overseas anyway? If so, then your primary reason for buying would have been expected price appreciation, no? Doesn't this make you a speculator by definition?

Not to trying to be a jerk here, just trying to point out that what's been driving the market for the past several years has been this severely warped "new paradigm" that your PRIMARY HOME has transmogrified from being mere SHELTER for your family to sure-fire "INVE$TMENT".

Personally, I would like housing to go back to being "just" shelter. I would also prefer to live in a place where my ability to purchase said shelter on a common man's salary does not depend upon laser-precise market timing of that rare "window of opportunity", which only seems to come around once every 15 years.

Fuck California and it's once-in-15 Golden Wonka Bar Housing Lotteries. If it is not willing to adopt housing, immigration and tax policies that enable working class people to provide adequate shelter themselves, then it deserves to go down the toilet.

187   HARM   2006 Aug 2, 4:14am  

-to provide adequate shelter themselves
+to provide adequate shelter for themselves

188   Peter P   2006 Aug 2, 4:15am  

I am now leaning a bit closer to hard landing again.

189   HARM   2006 Aug 2, 4:20am  

Welcome back, Peter P. Perhaps you will earn back your old title of "Darth Bubblehead" ;-) .

190   HARM   2006 Aug 2, 4:21am  

funny, George & I posted almost the same thing simultaneously.

191   e   2006 Aug 2, 4:22am  

If this guy is right, it won't be until 2014 that it will be a buyer's market:

http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html

192   Peter P   2006 Aug 2, 4:26am  

Maybe we could have some fun with him???
Of course he did have that special way of p!ssing us off!
What is the consensus?

I have nothing against him. Moreover, no troll can harm us anymore at this point.

193   e   2006 Aug 2, 4:27am  

Fwiw, here is a graph of the median income in Santa Clara from 2000-2004:

http://www.kidsdata.org/topictrends.jsp?t=31&i=1&ra=3_132

194   Peter P   2006 Aug 2, 4:27am  

If this guy is right, it won’t be until 2014 that it will be a buyer’s market:

Booms and busts are not symmetrical though, because greed and fear work differently. The Elliott Wave theory may offer some insight?

195   Randy H   2006 Aug 2, 4:27am  

Lift the ban. He won't come back anyway. He's probably begging to get his investment banker junior analyst job back now that he realizes you actually have to work for income; and usually very hard for high income.

196   Peter P   2006 Aug 2, 4:28am  

Fwiw, here is a graph of the median income in Santa Clara from 2000-2004:

Is that per household or per capita?

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