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Unemployment rate drop and housing will stabilize?


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2011 Apr 2, 2:48am   8,179 views  36 comments

by kimtitu   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/unemployment_rate_drops_to_FmyS5Rn7miExtJardxj38O

Labor Department reported positive unemployment rate at 8.8% compared to last released number. Most of us here believe/hope house price will drop further especially in California but the drop of unemployment rate from 10.1 to 8.8% cannot be ignored lightly. Are we really on the right path as government wants us to be?

Does anyone read any report or has any thought that counter this number? Some report may say the drop of unemployment rate is due to those who drop out of unemployment benefit no longer counted as unemployed. Other may argue the newly created jobs are mostly low paid job. How do we back these arguments up?

Are we just living in our wishful hope the above arguments are true? As much as I distrust the statistic of Labor Department, at least that is the counted number, thought it is flaw.

#housing

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16   Panawave   2011 Apr 3, 6:35am  

Housing will not stabilize until the average American wage earner can afford the average house. So the question becomes what is the average American job being created these days? We're probably increasingly looking to someone working at Best Buy, Wal-Mart or Target to be purchasing homes. Housing markets are generally local so you tell me if you think houses are affordable for these people in your area yet...

17   American in Japan   2011 Apr 3, 12:56pm  

@mickrussom

>Underemployment falls to 19.3% from 19.9% at the end of February
by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist

This is an important stat as well. Also the pay of the new jobs being created is key. I think it is dropping (overall on ave.), but I could be wrong. U3 stats do *not* tell the whole story by any means.

18   toothfairy   2011 Apr 3, 3:21pm  

what would also be interesting is the pay of jobs lost during the recession.

this chart gives some insight into where the most damage was done

19   CrazyMan   2011 Apr 4, 2:08am  

toothfairy says

This guy says that high tech is showing the strongest job growth.

Plus 3-4% wage inflation

so the jobs returning actually are the 100k+ ones.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42373371

There are ~350,000 people that work in the tech industry in the Bay Area (2006).

Probably less now.

There are 7.5 million people that live here.

20   toothfairy   2011 Apr 4, 3:24am  

CrazyMan says

toothfairy says

This guy says that high tech is showing the strongest job growth.
Plus 3-4% wage inflation
so the jobs returning actually are the 100k+ ones.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42373371

There are ~350,000 people that work in the tech industry in the Bay Area (2006).
Probably less now.
There are 7.5 million people that live here.

the bay area is a big place there are 9 counties here.
so what are you trying to say?

21   warblah   2011 Apr 4, 5:20am  

bubblesitter says

toothfairy says


bubblesitter says

Hell, they won’t even believe your last pay stub. They will call the employer on the day of release of the loan to make sure you are really employed. When were the last time around banks as desperate as this? Anybody who is dreaming of home price turnaround needs to have his/her head examined by a neurologist.

I think you could be in for a surprise. I’m not dreaming of a home price turnaround but it wouldn’t surprise me if we see one. It’s all local from here on out unfortunately unlike the bank’s balance sheets.
I’m predicting that the strong job centers recovery will lead the outlying problem areas.

Better get yourself some investment properties before you miss the boat.

exactly, if u r a bull, u really should be buying more properties RIGHT NOW instead of lurking around here in the forum, nothing to lose right?

22   thomas.wong1986   2011 Apr 4, 8:09am  

toothfairy says

the bay area is a big place there are 9 counties here.
so what are you trying to say?

Poof! A legend who has been around is no more... Not good news many at National wanted to hear. Guess lower cost homes and employee costs in Texas do pay off. Crap I hate seeing this happen.


Texas Instruments to buy National Semiconductor for $6.5 billion

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Texas Instruments said late Monday that it has agreed to buy rival National Semiconductor for $6.5 billion in cash.

The deal would make Texas Instruments one of the world's largest makers of analog technology components, which are used to convert real-world information, like sounds, into digital signals.

Anyway please go on with the cheerleading routine...

23   toothfairy   2011 Apr 4, 8:18am  

isn't Dell from Texas?

Dell Inc. is planning to take over at least 240,000 square feet between two research and development office space buildings on Great America Parkway in Santa Clara, near Highway 237.

Read more: Dell takes big space in Santa Clara | Silicon Valley / San Jose Business Journal

http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2011/04/01/dell-takes-big-space-in-santa-clara.html

24   thomas.wong1986   2011 Apr 4, 8:26am  

Not exactly factors we see which indicate any stabiliation in the job markets or increasing salaries. You try convincing your new manager based in Texas who makes $80-90K a year, that 100K plus for a staffer is reasonable.

You do recall what happened when HP hired Mark Hurd from Ohio... took a sledgehammer to costs and salaries. What do you think Dell with do here ? Free BBQ every Friday... Guess again.

25   thomas.wong1986   2011 Apr 4, 9:48am  

warblah says

exactly, if u r a bull, u really should be buying more properties RIGHT NOW instead of lurking around here in the forum, nothing to lose right?

Buyers unlikely, more reasonable their livelyhood is connected on the selling side and counting on higher commissions..... Realtors. These same people are screaming 'buy now' as they have always in the past. Sales man 'up talk' is pretty evident from these people.

26   terriDeaner   2011 Apr 4, 9:49am  

toothfairy says

Dell Inc. is planning to take over at least 240,000 square feet between two research and development office space buildings on Great America Parkway in Santa Clara, near Highway 237.

Read more: Dell takes big space in Santa Clara | Silicon Valley / San Jose Business Journal

http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2011/04/01/dell-takes-big-space-in-santa-clara.html

For what? Personnel or boxes? Empty research space seems ideal for storing overstocked computer inventory...

27   bubblesitter   2011 Apr 4, 1:58pm  

terriDeaner says

toothfairy says

Dell Inc. is planning to take over at least 240,000 square feet between two research and development office space buildings on Great America Parkway in Santa Clara, near Highway 237.
Read more: Dell takes big space in Santa Clara | Silicon Valley / San Jose Business Journal
http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2011/04/01/dell-takes-big-space-in-santa-clara.html

For what? Personnel or boxes? Empty research space seems ideal for storing overstocked computer inventory…

Haha.

28   terriDeaner   2011 Apr 4, 2:33pm  

SF ace says

Dell needs to be in Silicon Valley to be able to build a Tablet or other next generation of hardware like the Ipad2.

In all seriousness, do you have a reference for this? Thanks.

29   Hysteresis   2011 Apr 4, 3:53pm  

terriDeaner says

SF ace says

Dell needs to be in Silicon Valley to be able to build a Tablet or other next generation of hardware like the Ipad2.

In all seriousness, do you have a reference for this? Thanks.

of course not.

30   thomas.wong1986   2011 Apr 4, 4:51pm  

SF ace says

Dell needs to be in Silicon Valley to be able to build a Tablet or other next generation of hardware like the Ipad2. 10 years ago Dell laughed at Apple, now Apple is laughing at Dell. Following the steps of Nokia which moved here for similar reasons. When the business is 40B, it’s more important to get it right than contain cost. spend millions for billions.

You walk into many serious companies, wont find any Apple products runnning the Business. Corporations stop puchasing such products (early 90s) becuase of the higher costs and incompatable with ERP and other corporate systems. They are out of the corporate markets.

As for Apple itself which runs SAP ERP servers for its global operations... requires MS and most likely windows servers, Dell or HP. Even back in the '80s as Jobs was bad mouthing IBM, he had IBM mainframes stashed in the backroom running the Apple Business.

31   thomas.wong1986   2011 Apr 4, 4:52pm  

terriDeaner says

SF ace says


Dell needs to be in Silicon Valley to be able to build a Tablet or other next generation of hardware like the Ipad2.

In all seriousness, do you have a reference for this? Thanks.

SFA is a mind reader...

32   thomas.wong1986   2011 Apr 4, 4:56pm  

Ipad my big fat left toe!

Dell Inc. is expanding its presence in Silicon Valley, adding office space to accommodate the growth of companies it has bought there and others it plans to buy.

"We are building all over the world," CEO Michael Dell said Monday, before he took part in the dedication of a new Dell-based supercomputer at the University of Texas.

"Silicon Valley is no different. In the last 18 months or so, we have spent about $5 billion buying a number of companies, and a number of them are located in Silicon Valley."

Dell recently leased 240,000 square feet of office space in Santa Clara, Calif.

Asked whether the new space would be for companies Dell Inc. owns or those it plans to buy, Dell replied, "Both."

Dell Inc. bought three California companies last year — Kace, which makes systems management "appliances"; Ocarina Networks, which develops storage optimization technology; and Scalent Systems, which makes software that enables companies to expand their data center infrastructures more easily.

Dell wants to expand its acquisitions in order to bolster its offerings of products and services available to potential large and mid-size business and government customers.

Michael Dell said his company "absolutely" intends to buy more companies in the Silicon Valley area, "but I'm not going to tell you which ones they are."

Worldwide, "We added 7,000 or 8,000 people last year in Dell, and we will add that many this year," he said.

33   bubblesitter   2011 Apr 5, 5:10am  

thunderlips11 says

Anyway, reason I logged in.
If unemployment rate is as low as “They” say it is, then the increasing number of households receiving food stamps need an explanation.
* Alot of people lost their jobs and are living off food stamps.

* Those that found jobs, found really shitty jobs that require food stamps otherwise they can’t make it on their paycheck.
Because the number of food stamp recipient households is now about 44M, up from 26M in 2007.
Currently, Food stamp use is 14% of the population. It was 9% just 4 years ago.
I like the shitty job explanation, since I can’t think of one industry that relies on decently-paid employees that has been hiring recently.

Well said. Shitty jobs $10/hr in CA and people are dreaming of home price turnaround...Haha..I am getting a kick out this denial of bulls. LOL.

34   terriDeaner   2011 Apr 5, 6:11am  

thunderlips11 says

If unemployment rate is as low as “They” say it is, then the increasing number of households receiving food stamps need an explanation.

I like the shitty job explanation, since I can’t think of one industry that relies on decently-paid employees that has been hiring recently.

bubblesitter says

Well said. Shitty jobs $10/hr in CA and people are dreaming of home price turnaround…Haha..I am getting a kick out this denial of bulls. LOL.

Agreed.

35   terriDeaner   2011 Apr 5, 6:15am  

thomas.wong1986 says

Dell Inc. is expanding its presence in Silicon Valley, adding office space to accommodate the growth of companies it has bought there and others it plans to buy.

thomas.wong1986 says

Dell wants to expand its acquisitions in order to bolster its offerings of products and services available to potential large and mid-size business and government customers.

Michael Dell said his company “absolutely” intends to buy more companies in the Silicon Valley area, “but I’m not going to tell you which ones they are.”

Worldwide, “We added 7,000 or 8,000 people last year in Dell, and we will add that many this year,” he said.

This does surprise me a bit. Is this really representative of information sector expansion in the Bay Area, or just Dell's expansion into someone else's market share?

I wonder what the prospective customer breakdown looks like... maybe 40/60 business/government? Just a guess.

36   thomas.wong1986   2011 Apr 5, 9:46am  

terriDeaner says

This does surprise me a bit. Is this really representative of information sector expansion in the Bay Area, or just Dell’s expansion into someone else’s market share?
I wonder what the prospective customer breakdown looks like… maybe 40/60 business/government? Just a guess

Yes govt is certainly purchasing more high tech equipment. If your in the Info tech space you probably seen higher govt orders for SW and HW. I dont think is 40/60 by a long shot, but still under 10% for sure.

Dells move clearly indicates fewer independent players/employers in the future as the giants gobble up the small and larger employers in SV. Which means we will see a couple of large conglomerates running the show down the road. Not that great if you want to get a new job or start a new company. I hate to think what a recession 10-15 years from now will look like.

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