patrick.net

Houseless but not homeless says

Ok, I just want to make sure I have my math right. Doesn’t this also mean you paid less for the house, pay less in property taxes and get a bigger tax refund?

And had a the opportunity to refinance when rates went lower.

Glad to see all the responses. Some of you need to read what I wrote at the beginning, though. There are conditions... Most who think housing prices will go up in the next 2-3 years, see only *nominal* appreciation. I have read a lot of their comments on other posts. I want to focus on *real* appreciation.

A very large percentage of boomers have their mortgage paid off. They don't have to sell to fund their retirement. All they need is a reverse mortgage.

I recently retired and bought a 3400 sq ft. house. One story, 10' ceilings, 5 bedrooms, etc. The largest house I have ever owned. I love it.

Somebody offered that the shadow inventory is 11 million houses. I think that number is way too high. Of course, only the........Shadow........knows for sure.

The number may be that high, but it includes 2nd homes owned by people, and also homes in places where people don't want to live (relatively speaking).

MarkInSF says

toothfairy says

The housing market is artificially depressed right now and houses are selling below replacement cost.

Below replacement cost does not mean they are under priced. If houses always sold for more than their replacement costs, then building a home would be a guaranteed business to be in. Build a home, and you’re guaranteed a profit.
Ah… wouldn’t that be nice if every business you decided to invest in was guaranteed to turn a profit?…..let me close my eyes and imagine that happy dream for a moment……ah, that was nice.
Too bad the world doesn’t work that way.

I'd add that "replacement" cost is a faulty number. If housing is "artificially" repressed at the moment, then you also must consider that housing costs have been "artificially" inflated for the past several years. This includes construction material, labor, land, and government fees. While some of this is starting to come down, particularly material, the price/sq ft to build is still quite high. And of course high school drop outs are still wishing for $30-40/hr(though 1 out of 10 will now accept $15/hr or so).

So replacement cost remains a ridiculous grasping at straws argument.

bayview6 says

A very large percentage of boomers have their mortgage paid off. They don’t have to sell to fund their retirement. All they need is a reverse mortgage.
I recently retired and bought a 3400 sq ft. house. One story, 10′ ceilings, 5 bedrooms, etc. The largest house I have ever owned. I love it.
Somebody offered that the shadow inventory is 11 million houses. I think that number is way too high. Of course, only the……..Shadow……..knows for sure.

A large number of people dont. Otherwise it would not have taken several months for hundreds of people I work with to grab onto a recent offered golden parachute that was truly golden.

As to the shadow inventory being unknown...that of course is true if the statement is strictly adhered to. However, very reasonable estimates can be made by finding the number of bank owned + foreclosure + preforclosure. For some unknown reason, there are a small subset of internet posters(likely desperate realturds) who like to say that there is no correlation between people who are behind on their mortgages and those properties eventually being forclosed on. Rubbish. Of those who miss two or more payments, somewhere in the neighborhood of 80-90% ultimately end up being foreclosed on. Therefore, a reasonable estimate of shadow inventory CAN in fact be made.

Simply dismissing 11 million shadow inventory without providing any sort of reasonable estimate as to what shadow inventory is...making a ridiculous assertion like you have...is, well, ridiculous. Honestly you look like a boob.

Well. First off I think I have demonstrated how ludicrous economic indicators are. What this gentleman might be asking is. Hey there is no deflation going on. Prices on other things are still very high. So nothing really happening. Everything seems to be ignoring this housing blowout. The stock market. (Which is really kind of a flim flam). In my opinion. People prices. Tomato's, Automobiles etc.

See we were told something. THAT THE ENGINE OF THE ECONOMY WAS HOME BUYING. That was number one. Number two was AUTOMOBILE MANUFACTURING AND BUYING. Well the decimation of both of those industries seems to have made little difference. That makes economic indicators and the behavior of the so-called indicies. HIGHLY SUSPICIOUS. In my estimatation. See if your in the so-called financial industry. You have to turn your head at all of this. Because they contraidict themselves almost every day now.

This is a little side note to the really hip. If you understand what MBS's were. What they did. You know there were a complete scam. They sold them to other nations even. No one will buy them anymore. That led to all of this. See home buying did not magically melt down. They aren't lending to every dick and harry. Anymore. Because without MBS"S being sold. It's not worth taking the losses they incur by doing that. So they cut off your credit is what it amounts to. If you don't get that you really need to read closer. The whole stock market is comprised of scams like MBS's.

See you have to understand. Not everyone is finacially sophisticated in this country. So they might accept something like well a subprime blowout. However the real deal is Fannie and Freddie and a whole lot of banks went under. They don't do subprime. They really don't. I have been in the home investing business for over 18 years.

If you knew. You would understand. Subprime is such a small, small part of lending. It is very ludicrous to someone who knows. See. That is a slap in the face to my intelligence. To even forward that kind of nonsense to my senses.

See what this really is. They just do whatever the hell they want when they feel like it. Those indicators and fast talking con's on MSNBC just pump out whatever the latest one is. See. Thats what this gentleman thats writing this is asking. He understands. He's saying does anyone else see this. NO RISE OR FALL IN THE CPI OR PPI. Hey I do.

Which shows me that financial paper is nothing but a lot of crap and a real fast moving con game. Put forward by the interest money soaked financial news. Any anything else masked as being independent. Which we all know no one else on earth could afford to run and maintain.

The little engine that made the economy grow, blew out. Home buying. The biggie boomie Auto industry that fueled all our growth. Blew out. Ford showing a profit through this whole crisis. Is just stupid. Who's buying a car for 13k. When everyones running for there lives financially?

Yet people are buying stock? Well. Looks financially sound to me. It defies freaking gravity. But hey there a sucker born every minute.

In fact. The MBS scam. Which they mask as subprime which is insulting. The dow or the do do as I like to name it at 12k. Just shows me they put up any damn number they want there. Want to buy stock? Find out what a lot of nations found out. MBS's robbed them blind in many cases.

We bought all of their debt. Now we own them just might mean something else. HAHAHA.

American in Japan says

Glad to see all the responses. Some of you need to read what I wrote at the beginning, though. There are conditions… Most who think housing prices will go up in the next 2-3 years, see only *nominal* appreciation. I have read a lot of their comments on other posts. I want to focus on *real* appreciation.

In CA it is incredibly unlikely to see any kind of appreciation, depreciation for the next few years is probably the only thing. My neighbors house is still at 500k, when right before the bubble it was around 250k and at the height of the bubble 675k. It's a bubble here, and CA usually lags behind other states coming out of such messes, it will be a while, we have a lot more late night watching flipper crowd here with entitlement mentality which is hard to let go of.

Can't say much for other states, as I don't live there.

>I’d add that “replacement” cost is a faulty number. If housing is “artificially” repressed at the moment, then you also must consider that housing costs have been “artificially” inflated for the past several years. This includes construction material, labor, land, and government fees. While some of this is starting to come down, particularly material, the price/sq ft to build is still quite high. And of course high school drop outs are still wishing for $30-40/hr(though 1 out of 10 will now accept $15/hr or so).

Good point.

@Chris LA

>My neighbors house is still at 500k, when right before the bubble it was around 250k and at the height of the bubble 675k. It’s a bubble here, and CA usually lags behind other states coming out of such messes...

Agreed.

chrisLA--
I agree prices should stay somewhat where there at now but inflation has been on the up everywhere I look, shouldn't that hold prices on homes? or will we see what happened in the late 1970's ?
With an election in 2012 and Obama armed with a billion dollars worth of our laundered taxdollars mostly thru union and corporate bailouts we are in a new age of corruption.

dodgerfanjohn says

As to the shadow inventory being unknown…that of course is true if the statement is strictly adhered to. However, very reasonable estimates can be made by finding the number of bank owned + foreclosure + preforclosure. For some unknown reason, there are a small subset of internet posters(likely desperate realturds) who like to say that there is no correlation between people who are behind on their mortgages and those properties eventually being forclosed on. Rubbish. Of those who miss two or more payments, somewhere in the neighborhood of 80-90% ultimately end up being foreclosed on. Therefore, a reasonable estimate of shadow inventory CAN in fact be made.

Here's an estimate of shadow inventory being 1.8 million units, not 11 million.

http://www.housingpredictor.com/2011/shadow-inventory.html

I guess you didn't notice that the guy who posted the 11 million shadow inventory number didn't supply any source to support his ridiculous number. Seems the boob is you. Honestly.

Houseless but not homeless says

Ok, I just want to make sure I have my math right. Doesn’t this also mean you paid less for the house, pay less in property taxes and get a bigger tax refund?

Your monthly payment is still a 30 year fixed at an equal monthly payment... sure less property tax is great.. but that's less property taxes to write off also.... More interest to write off is good, but more property tax to write off bad?

I'm not saying it's a great deal to buy now.. But the actually monthly payment comparisons are getting closer to over a decade ago by comparison with these ultra-low interest rates... can't deny that!

Sure houses were a lot cheaper in the 90s also... BUT you paid as high as 10% interest rate on that house. Of course the home will be cheaper otherwise no one could have afforded it.

The government is is a really tough spot where they can't raise interest rates or the housing market would totally crash... And they have to do it very slowly after years of stable prices and lower unemployment.

My biggest fear in buying now is I buy a nice home in the area I'm looking where prices are down 40%.... Then I'm ready to move in 10 years interest rates are well over 10% and that new buyer would have to pay $2882 in principal/interest a month to own the home I had a fixed mortgage at $1738 in principal/interest a month at a decade ago.

Without inflation I'd have zero chance of moving up to a nicer, bigger home in 10 years... So I'm trying hard to find a place that has a very large yard and great schools so I can always add on and stay put in my ultra-low fixed 4% fixed mortgage.

Usually real estate is not a good inflation hedge. In times of inflation, commodities go up...things we HAVE to use on a day to day basis. Oil, food, etc. Real estate doesn't HAVE to be bought (it can be rented), therefore it ends up being less of a priority for day to day living, which lowers it's demand in proportion to other things.

Bayview, that article includes only properties that are MORE than 90 days delinquent.

Bizarre cutoff since 2 missed payments is a solid indicator.

one thing no one has mentioned - the government saves the banks time and time again.
they will find a way to hyperinflate so that rents go sky hi and then the equivalent to own will go down in relative terms.
if you are paying 10K a month in rent, your fixed mortgage at 5% or whatever will look pretty good as your costs may only be 5K to live there.

never underestimate the government to serve the interest of the banks. what is their interest? prices up.

how will they do this? not sure, we'll see, won't we?

pht4 says

one thing no one has mentioned - the government saves the banks time and time again.

they will find a way to hyperinflate so that rents go sky hi and then the equivalent to own will go down in relative terms.

if you are paying 10K a month in rent, your fixed mortgage at 5% or whatever will look pretty good as your costs may only be 5K to live there.
never underestimate the government to serve the interest of the banks. what is their interest? prices up.
how will they do this? not sure, we’ll see, won’t we?

Government can't stop earth quakes,tsunami etc., same way they can't stop the home price slide..which very inflated with the supporting foundation of pure avarice and NOT real money generated through economic activity. If you print too much money then we won't be the USA anymore...the country with best life style in the world...think about it....go ask APOCALYPSE...K what is the truth. :)

bayview6 says

A very large percentage of boomers have their mortgage paid off. They don’t have to sell to fund their retirement. All they need is a reverse mortgage.

Last article I read said 65% of 55-64 year olds still have a mortgage, 18% of those are underwater. Obviously some are near payoff, but from people I've talked to a lot aren't even close. This doesn't include home equity loans on top of mortgages or on paid off homes. That doesn't qualify as a very large percentage paid off ready for a reverse mortgage to me.

thunderlips11 says

This is more like the Great Depression, a period after an asset bubble fueled by easy credit. Bubble bursting was not the cause of the “70s stagflation” - most households did not own a single credit card, and the national debt was low and manageable (it would only start to explode in the 80s), and most people paid CASH for just about everything.

This is an interesting perspective thunderlips. My concern is that the price inflation that started last fall for oil and and other commodities has not yet found its peak, or current equilibrium for that matter.

It seems like you are arguing that there will be little or no wage inflation, in contrast to what occurred in the 70's. I am inclined to agree - this is highlighted by the socio-economic differences between then and now that you commented on. And this argues against strong inflation across all asset classes... and more to the point of this thread, against strong (nominal or inflation-adjusted) house price inflation.

nathanielbwest1 says

Usually real estate is not a good inflation hedge. In times of inflation, commodities go up…things we HAVE to use on a day to day basis. Oil, food, etc. Real estate doesn’t HAVE to be bought (it can be rented), therefore it ends up being less of a priority for day to day living, which lowers it’s demand in proportion to other things.

However, people need to eat, and most Americans need to drive to the food store and either their job or the unemployment office to get money to buy the food. And food/gas prices are still going up. Sure, as gas prices go up, people will drive less (demand goes down) - but this, in part, is how oil price spikes tend to reduce GDP and promote recessions, leading to/maintaining high levels of unemployment. So then prices for oil and other things should level-off or drop during a economic leveling off or downturn... but will they with so much fed money/credit sloshing around for speculative investment? With actual oil supply disruptions in the middle east? With 'helicopter ben' driving the money supply? And could he ACTUALLY raise interest rates in the near future, BEFORE oil/commodities price inflation gets worse?

So I see a case for continued rising prices for many household essentials, AND a case for persistent high levels of unemployment. Hence, stagflation at least for the near term, unless oil and other commodities prices are contained.

BTW, I'm no economist - any clarification on these issues would be appreciated.

bob2356 says

bayview6 says

A very large percentage of boomers have their mortgage paid off. They don’t have to sell to fund their retirement. All they need is a reverse mortgage.

Last article I read said 65% of 55-64 year olds still have a mortgage, 18% of those are underwater. Obviously some are near payoff, but from people I’ve talked to a lot aren’t even close. This doesn’t include home equity loans on top of mortgages or on paid off homes. That doesn’t qualify as a very large percentage paid off ready for a reverse mortgage to me.

Bob, it would seem to me that 35% is a large percentage. However, since about 35% of ALL houses don't have a mortgage I suspect that the age 62+ crowd without a mortgage is a lot higher than 35%. In addition, Bob, you should also consider the fact that a senior with significant home equity can also get a reverse mortgage. If you combine those two groups together I think you will come up with a very large percentage.

The point being that seniors that are underwater or without significant equity in their home probably will not be able to retire early, and those without a mortgage or have significant equity can fund their retirement without selling their house.

Drop off the key lee and set yourself free. Material costs are dropping? If your using cash. You will work for 6 months just to pay a stove off. Apparently in other peoples estimation. Their time is not worth a damn. Mine is. I don't know about others.

Actually it does not boil to time. What it really is about is labor. Buddy labor is damn hard. If you like being conned hey. Your biz. Its almost funny people want to keep this servitudinal system going. I guess if you can't think for yourself.. Like letting the people of interest, banks etc. telling you what to do, think and for working for them when to do it. Fine. Your in the system not as the boss but as a wag. A wag is the animals tail. So wag away. Me. Im not their fool.

Heck I ain't even married. See I'll date the babe. But even I have my limits. So the whale swims along. I wait. Hit like a shark and take a piece of it ass off and I am happy.

ArtimusMaxtor says

Hit like a shark and take a piece of it ass off and I am happy.

Wow, my grandma says the EXACT same thing when we take her to Applebees!

dodgerfanjohn says

I’d add that “replacement” cost is a faulty number. If housing is “artificially” repressed at the moment, then you also must consider that housing costs have been “artificially” inflated for the past several years. This includes construction material, labor, land, and government fees. While some of this is starting to come down, particularly material, the price/sq ft to build is still quite high. And of course high school drop outs are still wishing for $30-40/hr(though 1 out of 10 will now accept $15/hr or so).

So replacement cost remains a ridiculous grasping at straws argument.

I'm not going to argue just for the sake of arguing so I'll just say.. yes.

Though it doesn't really change the point that houses can be bought today at well below fair value
based on several metrics. replacement cost, rents.

Though I guess you could say that rents are falling too.
Put a negative number in the expected rent increase field and you'll probably find that it's never a good time to buy.

Is everyone posting in this thread today smoking the green leafy stuff or am I the troll target of the day? I swear I don't understand these responses.

I understood you correctly you're saying the price of everything is inflated so there is no fair value?

terriDeaner says

So I see a case for continued rising prices for many household essentials, AND a case for persistent high levels of unemployment. Hence, stagflation at least for the near term, unless oil and other commodities prices are contained.

Stagflation implies rising prices in all categories including wages, the prices of finished goods and services, not just food and gas.

I'm not sure what so call rising global commodity prices, low overall inflation, and high unemployment. I'm sure somebody will come up with a name that will stick, but it's not stagflation.

Thanks MarkInSF. Is the following strictly true though?

MarkInSF says

Stagflation implies rising prices in all categories including wages, the prices of finished goods and services, not just food and gas.

The reason I ask is because I've come across many different definitions online for stagflation, like

"A condition of slow economic growth and relatively high unemployment - a time of stagnation - accompanied by a rise in prices, or inflation. " - from Investopedia

and

"In economics, stagflation is a situation in which the inflation rate is high and the economic growth rate is low." - from Wikipedia

among others. And wouldn't you expect a lag in price increases for finished goods to follow increases in raw material and oil prices?

MarkInSF says

I’m not sure what so call rising global commodity prices, low overall inflation, and high unemployment.

I'm assuming by this you mean core CPI, yes?

Here's what I hold truth:
1. When stock market go up, real estate will follow
2. I am bullish on housing AS LONG AS you buy it when it's undervalued (i.e, Buy low so you can sell high)

bubblesitter says

shrekgrinch says

Expat64 says

House prices always go up. You can’t make more land. It’s a great time to buy. Interest rates are low. Foreclosures and distressed sales don’t count. Real estate is all about location and each house is unique in its specific location so it will go up in price. The Bernank has our back. Lereah will return! And, it’s a great time to buy or you will miss out.

Please tell me you’re being sarcastic.

Seriously, I am thinking he is sarcastic.

Seriously, I agree. He has to be sarcastic. Either that, or he is a Realtor selling his miracle snake oil with the same old weather beaten garbage that just makes no logical sense.

Prices on all but the cream of the crop, well located luxury properties, will not rise for at least a decade. No real appreciation and no nominal either.

During the bubble homes sold routinely for double today's prices. How exactly are people supposed to recover from such massive losses to go on and buy more real estate?

Unless the bullish see some sort of significant and broadly based wage inflation, unlikely in a globalized economy, they are just delusional.

terriDeaner says

And wouldn’t you expect a lag in price increases for finished goods to follow increases in raw material and oil prices?

Yes, but commodity prices are a tiny portion of the economy like the US. Most of the economy is labor - the supply chain to consumers for finished goods, or good and services that don't even involve commodities. If all commodities get 5X as expensive (which happened to oil in the last 10 years), it in no way implies everything else will get anywhere near 5X as expensive.

More important is that a rise in commodity prices does NOT imply self-perpetuating, embedded inflation, where prices go up 5% or 10% per year in a self-sustaining way, where people just expect prices to go up and expect to get a raise, which was the situation in the 70's stagflation. Any prices increases in finished goods from more expensive commodities are likely to be a one-time phenomena, and do nothing to increase the "rate" of inflation in the future.

terriDeaner says

I’m assuming by this you mean core CPI, yes?

No, core is just useful as a measure inflation inertia. I mean inflation for "all items", which includes food and energy in the portion in which they are purchased.

Clearly lower income people that spend more of their incomes on energy and food staples experience more price shock than higher income people. Someone with a subsistence income sees a 10% bump in the price of bread, while someone with a middle class income sees a 2% bump in the price of a sandwich they buy at a restaurant.

Governments always inflate to destruction or severe austerity measures (you ain't seen anything yet). Politicians love to inflate. Look at the decline of the dollar since 1900 - declined 95+%. What we have been experiencing the last several years is a temporary correction of a long term inflationary trend. On the demand side we have population growth. I think the general upward trend in housing prices will resume in 3-5 yrs. I also predict mass inflation (30%), but not hyperinflation. After mass inflation who knows what?

Yep Terri, Grandma's are like that. I saw Grandma rip the fin's off of a whale once. That big boy didn't see her sneaking up on him in her inflatable raft. Grandma's not so smart about a lot of things like arguing with bell boy's. Shes got a touch of Alzeimers. Oh and she will get you involved in some really dumb schemes if your not careful. She sells Amway or Mary Kay or some damn thing. Shes got a parrot too. It keeps singing "take me for a ride". I really don't pay attention to the thing. It's kind of boring.

People get all screwed up over the inflation thing. 19% interest rates in 78' over a 70C rise in gas. We are over 4 times that now and have no inflation. Cars have risen as much as 400% in prices. Still no inflation. All goods in the supermarket. Carters 55mph and the sudden very sudden knowledge we were running out of gas. Which even termites in California know its scientifically solved easily. Just spells oil provocator's. The greasy rich. It's not contrived. It calculated. For those that really want to ride threw a nasty house of horrors.

ArtimusMaxtor says

Yep Terri, Grandma’s are like that. I saw Grandma rip the fin’s off of a whale once.[...] Shes got a parrot too. I really don’t pay attention to the thing. It’s kind of boring.

Well I for one would listen to it if it sang something catchy, like "I wanna take a ride on your disco stick!" But then again, I'd probably prefer that it just kept its mouth shut most of the time.

MarkInSF says

More important is that a rise in commodity prices does NOT imply self-perpetuating, embedded inflation, where prices go up 5% or 10% per year in a self-sustaining way, where people just expect prices to go up and expect to get a raise, which was the situation in the 70’s stagflation. Any prices increases in finished goods from more expensive commodities are likely to be a one-time phenomena, and do nothing to increase the “rate” of inflation in the future.

But why just one-time? This line of reasoning seems to hedge on the notion that the current upswing in commodities prices is not self-sustaining because it is not wage-price spiral driven. Consider the scenario where raw materials, food, and oil keep going up in price because actual supply is low and/or speculative investment is strong... does it really matter if anyone gets a raise or not?

MarkInSF says

Yes, but commodity prices are a tiny portion of the economy like the US. Most of the economy is labor - the supply chain to consumers for finished goods, or good and services that don’t even involve commodities. If all commodities get 5X as expensive (which happened to oil in the last 10 years), it in no way implies everything else will get anywhere near 5X as expensive.

I agree that raw material/commodity prices will not translate 1:1 (or anywhere near that ratio) to finished product prices. Still the weak links in the economic chain seems to be the price of oil, which affects most everything in the economy via price of production and/or price of delivery, and the price of food-related commodities, which is related to what everyone needs to eat. There seems to be a lot up room for upward movement for both of these before the system crashes again...

as you say:

MarkInSF says

Clearly lower income people that spend more of their incomes on energy and food staples experience more price shock than higher income people. Someone with a subsistence income sees a 10% bump in the price of bread, while someone with a middle class income sees a 2% bump in the price of a sandwich they buy at a restaurant.

terriDeaner says

But why just one-time? This line of reasoning seems to hedge on the notion that the current upswing in commodities prices is not self-sustaining because it is not wage-price spiral driven. Consider the scenario where raw materials, food, and oil keep going up in price because actual supply is low and/or speculative investment is strong… does it really matter if anyone gets a raise or not?

It's not self sustaining unless wages go up too. If wages don't go up, then there is a limit to the price people can pay for a given supply. If oil went up to $300 a barrel, and wheat to $1000 a ton, but wages stayed flat, that would be very bad for the US economy, but it still wouldn't be stagflation.

terriDeaner says

Still the weak links in the economic chain seems to be the price of oil

Yes, it effects the price of lots of things, including the price other commodities since oil is heavily used to produce them, but still 20 million barrels a day at $100 a barrel is still only 5% of GDP.

MarkInSF says

terriDeaner says

But why just one-time? This line of reasoning seems to hedge on the notion that the current upswing in commodities prices is not self-sustaining because it is not wage-price spiral driven. Consider the scenario where raw materials, food, and oil keep going up in price because actual supply is low and/or speculative investment is strong… does it really matter if anyone gets a raise or not?

It’s not self sustaining unless wages go up too. If wages don’t go up, then there is a limit to the price people can pay for a given supply. If oil went up to $300 a barrel, and wheat to $1000 a ton, but wages stayed flat, that would be very bad for the US economy, but it still wouldn’t be stagflation.

Just to add, if oil goes up that much price of other affected items would not because alternatives would become cheaper reducing demand for oil. we learned that back in econ. And like you mentioned without salaries rising there can be no inflation.

MarkInSF says

It’s not self sustaining unless wages go up too. If wages don’t go up, then there is a limit to the price people can pay for a given supply. If oil went up to $300 a barrel, and wheat to $1000 a ton, but wages stayed flat, that would be very bad for the US economy, but it still wouldn’t be stagflation.

Agreed. We'd likely be zooming down towards recession/depression at that point. I think I see what you're saying here.

But what about the next 6-12 months? Oil prices show no signs of slowing down:

WTI Passes $109
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/wti-passes-109

And even Bill McBride is getting itchy about calling for a slowdown later this year:

A QE Timeline
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/04/qe-timeline.html

Although I thought we'd avoid a double dip recession last year, I was forecasting a slowdown (here is a post from May 4, 2010: The 2nd Half Slowdown).

Right now I think Q1 2011 was sluggish (based on data so far), and Q2 will probably be a little better. But I'm not confident about the 2nd half of this year (although I'm not forecasting another slowdown yet).

What do you call this state of affairs for the short term? Also, If these inter-related trends continue it is hard to see how house prices will inflate by the end of the year. Maybe a weak seasonal bump up this summer, but then most likely a continued, steeper decline this fall.