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Beware of the "Careful What You Wish For" crowd - The Bubble's implosion is good for working class people


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2008 Mar 7, 2:36am   13,632 views  150 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Is this really our future?

Lately, The Gloom-n-Doom here seems a bit thicker than normal, even for a grizzly bear such as myself.

Yes, pain from the HB implosion & MEW withdrawal is spreading well beyond REIC circles –as predicted here on this blog 3 years ago. No, the Insolvency Crisis is not *contained* (except to planet Earth) and it’s starting to unwind at an impressively accelerating rate. Hearing about mass layoffs, unemployment, dropping equity, and watching the DOW plunge is a little depressing, even scary, yes. But, let’s also keep a little perspective: It’s not the End of the World as We Know It. It’s not even unexpected.

One of the FUD tactics the pro-Bailout crowd is trying to use (Cramer, Tan-man, etc.) is “Be Careful What You Wish For!”. They want us to think that if they and their buddies incur any serious losses, it’s Financial Armaggeddon for Everyone and will plunge us into a new Great Depression. There will be pain, yes. But, is the macroeconomic danger already so great that we *have to* socialize all losses right now, before we even know how bad it might get? Is a Mad Max future really inevitable, just because some well-connected banksters and hedgies blow up (due to their own reckless actions)?

To me, this is really just another way for them to try to convince us and CON-gress that we need to share the bill for their recklessness and greed. Let’s not succumb to it so easily.

HARM

#bubbles

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127   JoeB   2008 Mar 8, 3:14am  

Thank you for exposing Jim Cramer for the fraud that he is. He should be fired by CNBC and NBC and absolutely should not have a national forum. He is lies, he is manipulative, he doesn't give a hoot about the average investor (who foolishly give him his ratings and platform) - I think he is a total evil and destructive force.

CNBC should fire Kudlow too - just because he is full of s***.

128   DennisN   2008 Mar 8, 3:17am  

I don't see starvation being a problem around here in Idaho. We produce huge amounts of food and export most of it. There are lots of places for people down on their luck to get help, notably Second Harvest for which I'm getting more involved as time goes by.

A real problem is that "social planners" over the last 50 years have pushed the mantra "urban-density-urban-density" ad nauseum. When people are crammed together so much they no longer have any ability to help themselves when times get tough.

My grandparents did OK during the Depression. They had an acre on Bayshore Road in San Jose (currently the rent-a-car place at SJC) and they could grow vegitables there. They also raised chickens. They bought the land for $500 and built their own home and workshop with their own hands and with the help of some of their friends. This low-density rural lifestyle meant that most people in Santa Clara county got through the Depression with minimal suffering.

129   DennisN   2008 Mar 8, 3:36am  

Another advantage we have in ID is the large percentage of Mormons. I don't think much of their theological beliefs, but they do have a strong community support system for those Mormons down on their luck. Places on the East Coast without many Mormons have other sects such as the Amish who may prove very helpful in a new set of hard times. They are a pool of "low tech" knowledge who could train others how to use horses to plow fields if oil really gets scarce.

130   northernvirginiarenter   2008 Mar 8, 4:28am  

I know a local breeder of Belgian work horses who has no shortage of demand, there is already a movement afoot to reduce oil consumption in the eco hobby farm set. Its very cool to sit behind a couple of these mammoth beasties while they drag you around.

Apparently, its like $4-6 a day to feed one these guys in these drought induced high hay price times, but often over $150 daily to feed the Deere tractor monster diesel.

131   DennisN   2008 Mar 8, 4:41am  

Could someone explain to me exactly why BofA is so hot to purchase Countrywide?
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article3511120.ece

132   DinOR   2008 Mar 8, 5:27am  

DennisN,

Some really good observations on your part, and a lot of the reason "I" have struggled with the outrageous run up in RE prices. A house in and of itself... produces NOTHING. Other than shelter which isn't going to do you much good after you've starved to death.

As for personal security? There's nothing like good neighbors. How do you get good neighbors? Be one yourself!

I can't speak for HARM but "I" will say... I'm a little disappointed by some of the responses. I guess I got the wrong impression when we said "let's suspend disbelief" for a second and imagine a post-crash world where not all get sucked down the same shit tube?

133   DinOR   2008 Mar 8, 5:30am  

NVR,

If I get a chance to come back in another life, f@ck being a "blonde" (I want to come back as a Clydesdale!) Can you believe how PAMPERED those things are?

134   kewp   2008 Mar 8, 6:46am  

Could someone explain to me exactly why BofA is so hot to purchase Countrywide?

The theory is that the regulatory powers-that-be might be more willing to turn a blind eye to BofA's monopolistic goals if they bail out the poster boy for the housing crash. The biggest mortgage lender in the country going bankrupt would have quite a chilling effect on the nations economic psyche.

Anyways, BofA can just play some accounting tricks and write off CW's toxic debt over the next couple years. They won't be paying taxes for a long time.

135   DennisN   2008 Mar 8, 8:11am  

Here in the middle of changing all of our corn to ethanol, we are seeing an impressive run-up in ag. prices. www.nytimes.com/2008/03/09/business/worldbusiness/09crop.html?hp

It's just what we were talking about: higher grain prices but the farmers are feeling the pinch of fuel and fertilizer prices.

136   scoobyvoodoo   2008 Mar 8, 1:49pm  

Recession is bad for everyone, not sure if we are looking at a complete meltdown, Mad Max style. But, the whole thing has me thinking that we are going to relive the 70's; stagflation, oil crises, disco (shiver). At least Battlestar Galactica is better this go round.

137   EBGuy   2008 Mar 8, 7:12pm  

Beware of spiking ag commodity prices (or not, if you are peak oiler):
Read Smith, a farmer in St. John, Wash., thinks a new era is at hand for all sorts of crops. “Price spikes have usually been short-lived,” he said. “I think this one is different.” Hmmm..., that refrain sounds so familiar. Where have I heard it before?

138   Duke   2008 Mar 8, 11:37pm  

Back to the zero-sum game

Yes. Vast wealth can be achieved by having dollars at a time when owners are forced into sales. Look at Carlos Slim Helu.

The trick is being near the bottom (and thus being able to call it), having deep enough pockets to hang on until the turn around (thus avoiding your own fire sale) and hoping society is stable enough to not chnage the rules mid-risk.

In the Depression scenario, I would contend:

1. If you think you can pick the thing or things that survivie the meltdown better then market, where only the very strong will survive by deign of their size, go right ahead. Impress me. A lot.

2. I see a depression as pretty Vegas-like. The house always wins because they have deeper pockets than you. If a hedge fund can create its own momentum play to force you into liquidation because it can, it will.

3. After succeeding at 1 and 2, simply look at the tax law changes to socialize the remaining wealth after the Depression.

Of course, if it really gets that bad, we are well on to the Nation versus Nation scenario. All those European nations that are pretty mad right now about being bilked into the world of the sub-prime. Or the Chinese looking at the vastly depreciating pile of US currency in their vaults. Or the oil nations looking at their dollars thining, "Why am I holding dollars and giving up oil?"

Trade is a delicate dance requiring faith and that is in very short supply right now.

139   Peter P   2008 Mar 9, 6:09am  

“Price spikes have usually been short-lived,” he said. “I think this one is different.”

It is a new paradigm!! :)

140   DennisN   2008 Mar 9, 6:44am  

I understand that North Dakota is the "fortress" of wheat production.

141   northernvirginiarenter   2008 Mar 9, 7:07am  

Federal Authorities open CRIMINAL investigation of Countrywide for Securities Fraud! :-)

The FBI is looking at whether the company misrepresented its financial condition in securities filings.

Interesting turn.

142   northernvirginiarenter   2008 Mar 9, 7:21am  

For my money I'd say we've got an historic week for the financial markets in front of us, one to tell the grandkids about. As far as I know, the central banksters have no tools at their disposal to stop margin call momentum panic. Hedge fund implosions, derivative unwinds, bank write downs.

I'll predict this is the beginning of the end for the irritating, overused "subprime crisis" moniker, the "credit crunch" will head to memory.....we are about to enter "full blown financial crisis" stage....look for the new headline on the nightly news by the end of this coming business week. Probably a news conference from the White House with the entire financial team in the background endeavoring to shore up confidence.

Main street America is about to get an education on just how serious this situation is.

Stay tuned for imminent FED emergency operations. Wondering just what those crazy kids are going to try this time.

143   Peter P   2008 Mar 9, 8:26am  

Stay tuned for imminent FED emergency operations. Wondering just what those crazy kids are going to try this time.

Will gold break $1000 this week? :)

144   DennisN   2008 Mar 9, 8:31am  

Is that FED or FUD? I'm so confused.

145   Peter P   2008 Mar 9, 8:38am  

Is that FED or FUD? I’m so confused.

It is F'ED. :)

146   OO   2008 Mar 9, 9:01am  

The tan man sure looks very attractive to inmates. I hope he's gotten enough lubricant stocked up.

147   DennisN   2008 Mar 9, 9:17am  

I was just thinking this afternoon....we need more prison space for white-collar criminals especially.

We have entire "forests" of abandoned REO houses in Stockton and Modesto.

Why not build up a giant fence around those two towns and turn them into a minimum-security prison colony?

148   Peter P   2008 Mar 9, 9:34am  

I was just thinking this afternoon….we need more prison space for white-collar criminals especially.

Only if there is a way to pay for that without raising tax.

149   StuckInBA   2008 Mar 9, 9:58am  

New Post :
Devaluation of the US Dollar : On the other hand ...

150   DollarFray   2008 Mar 11, 3:46am  

The machine is overwhelming to me. For example, American workers have turned into service industry workers...while jobs have been off-shored, outsourced overseas. High paid professionals coming to the US on work visas (then become greencard holders) and these are engineers and doctors. The thing that frustrates me is that in their respective countries their education was free. I work in a hospital and I see this upclose with the ratio of Drs coming from India, vs. American citizens --for the same position. Then they come to the US and they get the high paying job, (200K-400K annual) while we are paying more and more to try and get a college education. Not to mention that our young men are then sent off to fight in wars either for our own defense or the defense of some other country. It seems the "system" is designed to bring Americans down.
Is this the fault of the American worker? How many more would plan and go to college if it were "free."

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